Thirty Years War ends in 1630

First off, you're right about the timing of Gustavus, that's my mistake.

Second, several things about Wallenstein and the Swedes: (1) Wallenstein wasn't entirely dependent on plunder because he also had Friedland, which Wedgwood describes as being a territory totally devoted to supporting his military machine and which played a huge role in supplying and financing Wallenstein's army; (2) Gustavus understood he was an outsider and engineered the perception of himself as a liberator to overcome the idea that he was a dangerous foreign conqueror.

Now, even though as it is the Swedes in actual history did much damage to central Europe in the Thirty Years War, if Gustavus has to support himself by living off the land very quickly the entire German nation lines up against him. Even John George of Saxony preferred the Emperor to Gustavus initially, because at least the Emperor was (for the most part) a German whereas Gustavus was an outsider. So I think Gustavus really needed France or some other source of revenue. Because living off plunder is pure box office poison for someone who plans on being the President of the "Corpus Evangelicorum", and who is selling himself as someone who wants nothing for himself but only what is best for the German Protestants.

But he'd already arrived!
You then need Richelieu to cut funding Gustavus, but of course he already have his stepping stone into the HREGN. Cutting funds would be important, but then Gustavus would soon adopt Wallensteins method of plundering the land to sustain his army.
 
Agreed - but what I'm trying to hint at:
If TYW is to stop 1630 you need to somehow acknowledge Gustavus' gains!
The Danish Kings had had a bad taste of allies during the Schmalkaldic war and TYW and could be relied on with the 1628 peace to stay at home - at least for some time.

Gustavus is another cup of tea.
Of course he could be persuaded to make war on Denmark-Norway but then his army would have to pass through Wallensteins Mecklenburg, don't think the latter would like that.

Even if both Protestant Kings should make peace they would be very uneasy about any naval buildup in Mecklenburg - THAT would be a casus belli!
 
But he'd already arrived!
You then need Richelieu to cut funding Gustavus, but of course he already have his stepping stone into the HREGN. Cutting funds would be important, but then Gustavus would soon adopt Wallensteins method of plundering the land to sustain his army.

If Gustavus invades and faces the united Imperial front (Emperor and Electors allied) that results from an end to the war in 1630, then won't that make his invasion much more difficult? He was relying on German princely support, and if that support isn't there then Gustavus' objectives are going to be seen as much more Swedish oriented and much less about "German Liberties".

Gustavus might just gamble that if he invades, the fragile peace between the Emperor and the Electors will collapse as soon as he inflicts a major defeat on an Imperial army. Wallenstein gets recalled, the other Electors start getting uncomfortable with the Emperor again, and the Protestant electors decide to abandon the peace in the face of the victorious Swedish Army.
 
If Gustavus invades and faces the united Imperial front (Emperor and Electors allied) that results from an end to the war in 1630, then won't that make his invasion much more difficult? He was relying on German princely support, and if that support isn't there then Gustavus' objectives are going to be seen as much more Swedish oriented and much less about "German Liberties".

Gustavus might just gamble that if he invades, the fragile peace between the Emperor and the Electors will collapse as soon as he inflicts a major defeat on an Imperial army. Wallenstein gets recalled, the other Electors start getting uncomfortable with the Emperor again, and the Protestant electors decide to abandon the peace in the face of the victorious Swedish Army.

Yes on both counts!
 
I just fund this thread and I found it just intriguing ...
I hope you will make allowances to me for refreshing this rather old thread,
as I am really interested in TYW PoDs (you love abbreviations, right?).

First of all, can one FINISH the war in 1630 by means of a simple PoD in 1630?
I do not think so. Gustav Adolph was just too eager and able to wage war in Germany,
an Richelieu was just too willing to support him.


However, turning point of 1630 really calls for PoDs.
In particular, the Reichstag in Regensburg (Regenspurg at that time) saw such
delicate politics. Thus far-reaching consequences might arise from slight changes
of the electors' negotiation behavior.
The complex interrelationship of the attendees in OTL proves that.


So what do we want from a PoD, for my taste and in the spirit of Doug's original posting?
We should not leave Ferdinand as embarrassed as in OTL.
And of course, Wallenstein's dismissal calls to be cancelled in AH.
Both can be done simply.


Consider that the Swedish landing in Pomerania occurred only days after the
princes had gathered in the cathedral city. Unfortunately, I do not know when
exactly the news arrived in Bavaria, but mounted messengers could overcome
the distance in less than two weeks, even in wartime.
But the congress lasted for months!
Hence the electors had plenty of time to consider their reaction.
They sure had reason and knowledge to see how serious the situation was.
But their distrust towards Wallenstein was deeper.
However, there might have been a way to satisfy both needs.
Only one of the electors has to come up with it.

Imagine:
Two rainy days in OTL are replaced by a bright sunny period (PoD!!).
This allows a Thurn and Taxis messenger for an early arrival at his destination,
the city of Regenspurg. To be precise: He is one day earlier than in OTL.
This means that discussion is slightly less heated and deadlocked than
it would have been the day after without his news.
Most importantly: It allows for the elector of Saxony to refrain from his
claim of the Wallenstein's dismissal without embarrassing himself.

The same faction of electors which in OTL has driven W. out might now
agree with the Emperor on the following compromise:

- Wallenstein stays head of the empirial army, for the time being,
but to the sole purpose to keep the Swedes out of the empire.
In particular, he is denied any military action against states of the empire.
 
(Further to last posting:)

- The imperial army must not stay in any territory of the empire,
unless with the permission of the head of that state, or only for
marching through without stopping on days, or for battle against
enemies of the empire.

This way Ferdinand may uphold the restitution edict,
but will not be able to enforce it.
Moreover, these regulations would, if Wallenstein complies,
release Brandenburg and Saxony from the threat from the imperial forces
and at the same time impede Swedish access to these countries.

At this point the interested reader may rise the question where Wallenstein
could then legally lead his troups.
Well, being now duke of Mecklenburg, he may have the mercenaries
keep their current camps.
He may as well march to meet, or circumvent the Swedes, into Pomerania;
additional potential battleground being the territories of German princes
outside the empire, e.g. mainly Prussia (Brandenburg), or Silesia (Habsburg / Austria).
Operations in these areas would make it suitable to pass through Brandenburg
and/or Saxony.


So what are the differences to OTL?
- Wallenstein is still there to meet the Swedish army, so probably
Gustavus Adolphus misses his opportunity of a cakewalk foray into the heart
of Germany. In particular, it is not certain whether
. > he will manage to foce the two remaining Protestant electors into alliance with him,
. > he will make his P.R. success of reestablishing the former rulers
of Mecklenburg into power.
- At the same time, the emperor cannot make Wallenstein ravage in random Protestant
imperial states unless against the wish of a majority of the electors.
Similarly, Maximilian of Bavaria enjoys the same protection against his personal
enemy Wallenstein.
- Formally, the emperor acts in agreement with his electors again, and vice versa.
Hence there are no additional fronts, e.g. Austria-Bavaria or Austria-Saxony.

Other than these rather transient changes, the difference to OTL as of year-end 1630 is
rahter military / strategic in nature, with the imperial army still gathered and present
near the focus of events.



I base on the assumption that the four electors in question may have distantly
understood the extent of the Swedish threat. I suppose that they did in OTL,
but considered Wallenstein as the worse issue.
In this TL, I just try to give them the opportunity to treat both in their negotiations.



So what is the probable outcome of this modification?

First of all, will Wallenstein comply with his orders?

I think he would, at least for the first time.
Of course, he has the power of breaking the new laws,
but if he does so openly, that would make him just another unlawful warlord,
without financial and other support from the court.
Most importantly, he would lose Friedland, as he is far away and could not
defend it against a seizure from Ferdinands's side. He certainly would not run that risk!
In OTL, he showed that he can play with the lords even by compying with their orders.

Is it an option for Wallenstein to stay in Mecklenburg for some time,
and thus let his new loot territory suffer from his army?
I think: Why not? Wallenstein never spared any country or region,
other than Friedland. For W., the most important aspect of Mecklenburg
was definitely underlaying his title and status of a free imperial prince with an
actual territory inside the the empire.
I do not think he bothered too much about how desastrous it looked like.


So what is the best strategy for Wallenstein?
This is hard to tell.
He may try the trick he applied later in OTL,
waiting and enlarging his army, and thus provoking G.A. to take the first step.
However, this does not seem promising, as the Swedes have the seaway
from home to their outpost under control; in particular, they have time and may
grow even larger as they can hire mercenaries from areas where the war has not
gone so far, e.g. mainland Poland.

It does not seem likely either that W. seeks an open battle and an early decision.
W. relies on the war, and he will do anything to prolong it. Unless perhaps he finally is king of Bohemia.

The best way to keep the war running and his landsquenets in good mood,
seems to make the way through Brandenburg(without burning cities,
just collecting some souvenirs) as slowly as possible bound for Prussia,
seemingly in order to circumvent G.A., but practically letting him escape
on the West or Southwest route.
Margin note: W. might want to leave a strong safeguard to defend Mecklenburg.


And what is the best strategy for Gustav Adolph?

When G.A. has had some time to hire soldiers,
he might seek an open bottle or not. I suppose his odds would not have been
good enough as his troups would consist by majority of freshmen,
while in W.'s troups even most of the pikemen had their experience.
So he may most likely try to dodge W. and "convince" the electors of
Brandenburg and (if possible) Saxony to side with him, as in OTL.


Now we probably need a specialist on military history to make AH-predictions
on the ensuing campaigns ...

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions?
 
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@BotovA

Quite interesting analysis - how about Wallensteins naval designs would he still be trying to get the Spanish to hand him some warships?

That would be extremely upsetting to the other Scandinavian power Denmark-Norway and could play Christian 4 into the arms of Gustavus A. May not be the greatest of allies but could make Wallenstein go for another round of pillage in Jutland just for the sake of it.
No warships however definately no Danish intervention!

Even if Christian 4 tried to make friends with the Emperor so as to gain security in Northern Germany don't expect him to side with Wallenstein unless something is filled into his pocket - lots of gold. Promises won't make it.
 
Quite interesting analysis - how about Wallensteins naval designs would he still be trying to get the Spanish to hand him some warships?

Thank you! I am sorry that I did not know about naval aspirations on W.'s side -
do you have any references for me on that?
So far I can only answer in much generality:
Any closer link to the Spanish Habsburgs is not likely to amuse the non-Habsburg
electors.
However, Ferdinand would certainly support a promising strategy plan.


That would be extremely upsetting to the other Scandinavian power Denmark-Norway and could play Christian 4 into the arms of Gustavus A. May not be the greatest of allies but could make Wallenstein go for another round of pillage in Jutland just for the sake of it.
No warships however definately no Danish intervention!

Well, Christian had just failed in intervening.
From 1623 to 1629, he tried to defend the Protestant prices in Germany and benefit
from the war himself. Having just failed, he is rather unlikely to be either able or willing
to re-enter the war.

Btw, it is frequently presumed that Christian's defeat was one of the
dozens of reasons for his rival Gustav Adolph to come over:
To show the world how things get done.
And thus show his superiority over Denmark, of course.


?Wasn't Spain & Portugal United at this time?, ?If the war ends in 1630 would they stay united?

Yes, on both accounts.

But I am not yet sure whether I can stop in 1630 with my current attempt.
 
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Thank you! I am sorry that I did not know about naval aspirations on W.'s side -
do you have any references for me on that?
So far I can only answer in much generality:
However, Ferdinand would certainly support a promising strategy plan.

Look up this - he was made Admiral and recieved a couple of small warmen from Spain - nothing that Denmark-Norway couldn't cope with but the threat was felt and would be dealt with. Haven't any english references to the ships, read that in Danish. (History of Danish Foreign policy vol.2)

Well, Christian had just failed in intervening.
From 1623 to 1629, he tried to defend the Protestant prices in Germany and benefit
from the war himself. Having just failed, he is rather unlikely to be either able or willing
to re-enter the war.

Christian failed having had the princes of the Lower Saxon Circle choose him Colonel so that he could "defend" them, something they disliked! Of course he wouldn't like to intervene and the Emperor gave him rights of taxing the Elbe traffic which he didn't want to squander but the maritime threat would be something for Christian to respond to and do look up the war with Sweden 1643-45/Torstensson War.
 
Look up ...

Thank you for the link!
I will put it to some use in time.


Christian failed having had the princes of the Lower Saxon Circle choose him Colonel so that he could "defend" them, something they disliked! Of course he wouldn't like to intervene and the Emperor gave him rights of taxing the Elbe traffic which he didn't want to squander but the maritime threat would be something for Christian to respond to and do look up the war with Sweden 1643-45/Torstensson War.


Well he was elected Colonel of the Lower Saxon Circle in 1625.
He led his troups as far South as Göttingen, where in the battle of Lutter
he failed against Tilly. In 1629 he agreed on the peace treaty of Lübeck.

Not that a peace treaty would mean so much in this era,
but Christian seems to be one of the rather cautious and prudent
warlords, so I suppose he would not try twice.
 
Not that a peace treaty would mean so much in this era,
but Christian seems to be one of the rather cautious and prudent
warlords, so I suppose he would not try twice.

Unless forced in by being attacked like the Swedes did or being strategically threatened by an enemy naval power in the Baltic!
 
We call it the twelve years war?

Witty! Actually, I still don't think I can end the war in 1630 with the PoD in question.
And btw, the term "Thirty-Years War" was coined shortly before its beginning ...


Unless forced in by being attacked like the Swedes did or being strategically threatened by an enemy naval power in the Baltic!


As it turns out, Wallenstein had to bury his naval ambitions already two years
before the PoD. I think we can go ahead and ignore it.
The Danish-Swedish conflict of later in OTL may well happen ...

I feel like working out a little time tree based on this discussion.
I hope you'll be with me!
 
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