There's a little bit of a butterfly effect. The British are in a full-blown panic, albeit a constructive one for their rearmament process, because Japan threatens important holdings (Australia, HK, Singapore). The French are as IOTL, because I can't see any reason for the POD to fundamentally affect their foreign policy. Butterflies have done in the Munich Conference; things in Europe are indeed different.
In the Pacific, I believe there are several mentions of an undeclared naval war between the Commonwealth, in this case Britain and Australia, and Japan. Think OTL's North Atlantic, without quite as much of an attempt to get directly involved.
I hadnt thought of the paralle between this and the NA in 1941, but it does make excellent sense. Also might lead to a few interesting little actions
Sooner or later what happend in the NA will happen here - a RN warship will be sunk. At that point it will get really interesting, as the response of the Japanese government is likely to be different to that of Germany (the Japanese werent exactly big on apologising for their mistakes). And of course, what size of ship gets sunk makes a difference.
While it doesnt really affect France that much, I think they would have reinforced FIC somewhat, and probably sent a naval squadron to 'keep an eye' on things. Just enough to make the point to the Japanese.