Thirteen More Minutes

RyanF

Banned
On 8/11/1939, the 16th anniversary of the Beer Hall Putsch, Adolf Hitler delivered his yearly speech at the Bürgerbräukeller, while a bomb ticked away precisely to its intended detonation at 21:20. Georg Elser had worked for months on placing the bomb there, and everything went exactly to plan with one exception, Hitler had left thirteen minutes before.

Two major factors contributed to the failure of Elsers otherwise sound plan. First and foremost the recent onset of WWII, causing Hitler to agree to make his speech on the condition that he return to Berlin on the same night (he had originally planned to cancel it altogether but changed his mind). Secondly, thick fog prevented a flight back to Berlin, causing Hitler to travel by train and therefore be forced to cut his speech short and leave earlier than expected, the thirteen minutes that saved his life.

What if there had been no fog? Or Hitler had decided to stay overnight in Munich? If Georg Elser became one of the most pivotal figures in twentieth century history rather than a curious footnote?

Given this is extremely early in the onset of the war it would certainly have great consequences on it. Under whose leadership however? Goerring? Goebbels? Hess? Himmler?

Perhaps most importantly, what would the final outcome of World War Two be with Hitler taken out extremely early in the War?
 
On 8/11/1939, the 16th anniversary of the Beer Hall Putsch, Adolf Hitler delivered his yearly speech at the Bürgerbräukeller, while a bomb ticked away precisely to its intended detonation at 21:20. Georg Elser had worked for months on placing the bomb there, and everything went exactly to plan with one exception, Hitler had left thirteen minutes before.

Two major factors contributed to the failure of Elsers otherwise sound plan. First and foremost the recent onset of WWII, causing Hitler to agree to make his speech on the condition that he return to Berlin on the same night (he had originally planned to cancel it altogether but changed his mind). Secondly, thick fog prevented a flight back to Berlin, causing Hitler to travel by train and therefore be forced to cut his speech short and leave earlier than expected, the thirteen minutes that saved his life.

What if there had been no fog? Or Hitler had decided to stay overnight in Munich? If Georg Elser became one of the most pivotal figures in twentieth century history rather than a curious footnote?

Given this is extremely early in the onset of the war it would certainly have great consequences on it. Under whose leadership however? Goerring? Goebbels? Hess? Himmler?

Perhaps most importantly, what would the final outcome of World War Two be with Hitler taken out extremely early in the War?

There will be no Ardennes offensive, the Germans will invade France via Belgium, which leads under the best circumstance for the Germans a stalemate in the west.
 
Would the war actually continue with Hitler gone? Was anyone else really interested in a war at that point..?

Sorry, I know I'm only adding questions, not answers...
 
Would the war actually continue with Hitler gone? Was anyone else really interested in a war at that point..?

Sorry, I know I'm only adding questions, not answers...

It's more a question of inertia, the German's are not going to give up Poland, and the Allies are not going to get out of the war without the Germans giving up control of Poland. So the war continues.
 

RyanF

Banned
The War would definately continue, as already mentioned, Poland is the main reason for this, if any of the German territorial claims under the Nazi's was justified it was the Polish Corridor and the Allies had finally taken a stand at Poland so both sides are very unlikely to back down.

It does depend on who takes over after Hitler (lets just hope he doesn't become known as the Martyred Fuhrer). Goering is probably the most obvious choice... would the Luftwaffe perform better under other leadership in Britain (Milch?)... would the leadership be heavily contested by the other top Nazis... would the military stage a coup.

Could World War Two even be cut really short with the onset of a Nazi Civil War?
 
Well the military's displeasure over Hitler's actions are well known afterall so far hes only pulled off diplomatic coups not stupidly brilliant military victories, so I think if the war in the West doesnt go as brilliantly the Heer may very well go for a putsch.

Hess would probably get the top spot at least in the immideate aftermath which in of itself would be very interesting both if he stays or Goering (the only real Nazi contender in 1939 I can see, maybe Himmler) seizes power, you've always got the cowed Brownshirts to contend with as well.
 
In the early days of the way Hitler specifically said that Goering was his successor if anything should happen to him, so Goering is very likely to become the Nazi leader. The Nazis wouldn't just withdraw from Poland after already having conquered it so the war would continue. Goering could pursue different strategies though. Not sure what his strategic thinking would be but its pretty easy to butterfly away the attack through the Ardennes (remember that the whole Nazi western strategy changed because of a single incident where the original plans were captured from a plane months later). A more conventional western attack as was originally planned would probably not bring the dramatic quick victory over France and result in a longer western war.

I'm not really familiar with the fine details of Goering's strategic thinking but he was probably more cautious (he opposed the attack on the USSR) and he was completely in love with the Luftwaffe which he was head of.
 
Goring would be a half decent commander-in-chief and a charismatic leader, but only so long as he keeps himself off drugs and keeps himself healthy. But he wouldn't do that, so we can guess he's either going to try to plan strategy while coked up and get a lot of people killed, or let the Generals take over the fighting.

If the later, this could be very good news for the Germans who might get a capable Luftwaffe general to oversee operations and you could see the Luftwaffe keeping the pressure on the RAF. You could see a German victory or draw in the Battle of Britain, or perhaps just drag the conflict out until England calls for peace (Assuming Germany doesn't throw themselves against the USSR).

The question I really have is what would happen with Denmark and Norway? Is there still an invasion?
 
Goring would be a half decent commander-in-chief and a charismatic leader, but only so long as he keeps himself off drugs and keeps himself healthy. But he wouldn't do that, so we can guess he's either going to try to plan strategy while coked up and get a lot of people killed, or let the Generals take over the fighting.
Didn't he only develop a drugs habit after some sort of operation? If we can butterfly the operation he might be competent... and thinner than OTL!
 
I would love to see a TL based on this.
Were Germany Invades thru Belgium [poor little Belgium:(] and France gets to fight the war She wanted.
 

General Zod

Banned
I agree that Goering would become the new Fuhrer if Hitler dies in September 1939. I'm not sure how the rest of Nazi German leadership would set up.

I'm doubtful that Hitler's death would necessarily butterfly away the Manstein Ardennes Plan. Sure, it's a rather distinct possibility, since the causal chain that brought to its adoption is complex and Hitler's death might easily interrupt it. But it's also quite possible that it does not, since the incident that caused a security breach of the old Schliffen-like Plan might still occur.

Of course, having Goering in charge could change many other aspects of WWII in Europe. Overall Germany might have a somewhat more competent military leadership (if a less charismatic one: his lavish lifestyle made him unpopular with German common people). However, he was an utter failure at organizing Germany's war effort. Especially Barbarossa might be very different in some key aspects, if it ever occurs. The Final Solution might be butterflied away. There might never be a DoW of Germany to the United States. All in all, a rather interesting WWII PoD. I hope to see a thorough discussion.

Göring was certainly an ardent Nazi and utterly loyal to Hitler. But his preferences in foreign policy were rather different and more akin to a resumption of Wilhelmine WWI objectives. He wanted to restore the German frontiers of 1914, and make Eastern Europe Germany's exclusive sphere of influence similar to what had been accomplished with the treaty of Brest-Litovsk. This was a much more limited set of goals than Hitler's dream of a vast colonial Lebensraum seized in merciless racial wars and huge racial cleansings.

Also, he was much hesitant about the war with Britain and France (which however by the PoD would be already well underway) and especially about attacking the URSS. Of course, had not Germany attacked, it is very likely that Stalin would eventually have.

Yes, Goering did have a morphine drug addiction but Hitler too had one (his quack personal physician routinely administered him mixtures containing high dosages of cocaine, amphetamines, and morphine) so the net effect on the decision-making of the two Fuhrers likely cancels out.
 
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The explosion we are talking about happened in November 39. I have an idea that lots of leading Nazis were supposed to be there to celebrate the beer hall putcsch.
 
Didn't he only develop a drugs habit after some sort of operation?

He did in the 20's when he was having a lot of uh, 'personal difficulties', but he quit. There's no reliable evidence for Goring continuing the addiction in this period. When he was picked up by the Americans, all he had on him was a shitload of paracodine (?) which he was 'addicted' to, although it's effects were basically as a placebo. The Americans got him off them in short order and he showed no real effects.

Goring as leader would certainly have a lot of impact - the war might even be over. Halifax et al certainly respected Goring as a 'strongman' who was rational, 'gentlemanly', aristocratic, and all that. Considering one of the main barriers to a deal was the total lack of trust on the British side of Hitler after he broke the terms of Munich, there may be some sort of peace with the architect of the war out of the way.

As said earlier, Goring's ambitions were very much more limited than Hitler, and his foreign policy goals were essentially Whilhelmine - colonies, hegemony over central Europe, etc. So the ultimate nightmare, really. A 'rational' Nazi Germany.
 
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General Zod

Banned
He did in the 20's when he was having a lot of uh, 'personal difficulties', but he quit. There's no reliable evidence for Goring continuing the addiction in this period. When he was picked up by the Americans, all he had on him was a shitload of paracodine (?) which he was 'addicted' to, although it's effects were basically as a placebo. The Americans got him off them in short order and he showed no real effects.

The quickness and finality of detoxification would strongly indicate a true addiction would not exist, indeed.

Goring as leader would certainly have a lot of impact - the war might even be over. Halifax et al certainly respected Goring as a 'strongman' who was rational, 'gentlemanly', aristocratic, and all that. Considering one of the main barriers to a deal was the total lack of trust on the British side of Hitler after he broke the terms of Munich, there may be some sort of peace with the architect of the war out of the way.

Very true. However, even a Goring Germany could hardly concede more than setting up the Polish General Government and the Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia as client states with the same degree of autonomy that OTL German satellites like Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania or post-WWII Soviet satellites enjoyed (or British satellites like Egypt or Iraq for that matter).

Provided a somewhat reliable and cooperative local leadership could be found in Congress Poland and Bohemia-Moravia, the Reich could satisfy itself with favourable economic deals, a military alliance, and restoration of the 1914 German border with expulsion of Poles from the annexed Corridor, Silesia, and Posen territories. No pre-war hostile independence, but no Lebenstraum, either.

The key issue is whether Britain would accept a German sphere of influence in Central-Eastern Europe.

As said earlier, Goring's ambitions were very much more limited than Hitler, and his foreign policy goals were essentially Whilhelmine - colonies, hegemony over central Europe, etc. So the ultimate nightmare, really. A 'rational' Nazi Germany.

We need to earmark a fundamental difference, here. A rational "nightmarish" Nazi Germany would be one that would still pursue Hitler's mega racial cleansing schemes with greater efficiency.

However, with Goering at the helm since the beginning of the war, there is a very strong likelihood that persecution of Jews, Rom, Slavs, and other minorities is never really escalated beyond Nuremberg Laws discrimination and forced expulsions (nasty, but it still leaves all of them alive and for that matter a Hitler "martyred" by a Communist assassin would most likely refocus the main scapegoat of the regime from Jews to Communists and de-emphasize hardcore anti-semitism), and the imperialistic foreign policy program goes from megalomanic huge racial cleansings to building a ring of client states in Central and Eastern Europe. Also the T4 extermination program of disabled Germans would likely be butterflied away (it would begin in late 1939 and was essentially yet another of Hitler's pet projects). This leaves political opponents and likely homosexuals in the concentration camps and destruction of Czech-Polish independence.

To subjects of the various Central-Eastern Europe authoritarian minor states, becoming vassals of a "moderate" fascist-imperialist German Empire with a rational leadership would be no true worsening of their lot, and possibly a moderate economic improvement in the long-term. As it concerns Soviet subjects, inclusion in such an Empire would be a huge livelihood improvement, which they would welcome with open arms (as they did OTL, before Hitler's Lebenstraum program gave them a horrible disillusionement).

Really, with Josif "Holodomor" Stalin around and in charge, happily butchering millions and millions, a moderate fascist-imperialist Nazi Germany without all the ethnic cleansing aspects could veeerryy hardly be anyone's "ultimate nightmare", without an extreme anti-fascist, anti-German agenda.
 
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Didn't he only develop a drugs habit after some sort of operation? If we can butterfly the operation he might be competent... and thinner than OTL!

Goehring was rather severely wounded in the '23 beer hall putsch and developed an addiction to pain-killers afterwards. So by 1939 (the PoD), he's already a long-time addict.
 
Goehring was rather severely wounded in the '23 beer hall putsch and developed an addiction to pain-killers afterwards. So by 1939 (the PoD), he's already a long-time addict.
You need to read other people's comments before making your own... (see above a couple)
 
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