Third European War?

[Kaptin Kurk]

With a PoD off January 1st, 1900, how can the Europeans embroil themselves in not two, but three major conflicts? Modifying WWI and WWII, or butterflying either or both away is perfectly acceptable. Somehow, however, general unrestricted warfare has to consume the vast majority of Europe three times between January 1st, 1900 and December 31st, 1999

 

[hugh lupus]

have the Agadir crisis escalate into a limited war
Germany backs down having lost face but in the interests of stability no one pushes too hard at the peace conference
Dreadnought race continues at faster pace
1913 Balkans war spills over
US sponsored peace by 1917. Germans lose Alsace /Lorraine
Resentment builds up in Germany and third world war begins 1933

 

[Ijon Tichy]

USA does not enter in 1917.

Germany wins in 1918 - but the victory is pyrrhic.

USA does become the major world economic power, and the crash of 1929 has the same effect as IOTL. By this point, Germany's pyrrhic victory has led to much resentment among elites. They begin to eye the rich grasslands of the Ukraine as a possible means to resolve their social and economic crisis. The Russian Tsar, still in command of his throne (I'm assuming it isn't Little Nicky by this point) says "we are one hundred years behind the west, we have ten years to make good the difference or they will crush us". The motto of the 30s is "re-armament for everybody" - regardless of the human cost.

And so, in 1941, everything comes to a head. In the end Berlin is occupied by Britain, France and Russia. Russia itself experiences a centre-left revolution, becoming a social-democratic republic. Britain reorients itself to its empire, as does France (which I suppose would still lose Algeria and Vietnam: the Brits might do better in holding on to their colonies, but there would still be some hard battles to fight there, including literal ones).

Germany, however, shifts, under the bitter weight of defeat, from Kaiserist authoritarianism to full-blown fascism (already in power in southern Europe). And so, in 1968, "they're expecting a third round of trouble", to quote Brecht.