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I'm working on a veritable beast of a scenario here. Feedback, criticism, ideas and suggestions are all welcome.

The basic POD I've got in mind is in the early 1970's, but the timeline spans until 2050 or so (at which point we have "present day"). A summary of the key points:

70s: The US stays in Vietnam longer than in OTL (agents provocateurs sabotage the peace talks), finally withdrawing in 1976. US-Chinese relations don't normalize. Nixon doesn't have as much political credibility when Watergate comes knocking; he is impeached and Agnew takes office. Acting on Nixon's advice, he appoints Ford to the vice presidency. He issues a pardon for Nixon, and The Supreme Court overrides him. Agnew resigns and Ford takes office.

Wounded Knee happens, but the standoff lasts until June; Tribal Chairman Dick Wilson's agents are caught attempting to escalate the conflict and arrested, and the AIM members receive some more support as a result. Frank Clearwater and Lawrence Lamont survive. Negotiations bring an end to the siege and a more positive relationship between the Oglala Lakota nation and the US government.

Israeli intelligence gets luckier than in OTL and is much better prepared for the Yom Kippur war. Despite the early warning, it does not launch a pre-emptive attack, fearing a lack of US aid. Isreal manages to take and hold the Suez canal before ceasefire. A side effect is greater sympathy for the USSR in Egypt.

The US oil embargoes go on longer and hits harder, and as a result measures to eliminate American dependence on foreign oil are broader and deeper. Environmental politics aren't nearly as polarized in the coming years; a modicum of green sentiment becomes mainstream in the US (while groups like Greenpeace are seen as far more radical than even OTL, resulting in less popular support). "Global warming", when coined, is far closer to the center of the American political Overton Window, as it were.

The USSR finds lots of sympathy and anti-American sentiment in the Middle East. It begins to extend diplomatic overtures there. It actually *loses* credibility in Latin America; although socialist movements there enjoy more success than in OTL, it also becomes rather obvious that the USSR is pursuing its own political agenda, not motivated by ideology. The case of Russification in Central Asia is used to support this outlook. Latin American movements are less overtly Communist in theory and practice. The US takes a much more hands-off stance in this area of the globe. The coup to replace Allende never receives CIA support and is crushed; after the situation normalizes, the Chilean government continues to develop and implement Cybersyn.

The Shah AND the Saudi royal family get ousted. Khomeini insists on counting oil prices in roubles instead of US dollars. The US finds political prospects in the middle East to be far more daunting.

80s: Economic recovery is a good bit more difficult on Reagan's watch. The stock market crash bottoms out eventually as in OTL, but growth doesn't pick up very well afterward. The transition away from fossil fuels is tremendously costly.

Able Archer 83 pushes an already-strained peace over the edge. Chance weather variations mean Oko doesn't have its serendipitous false positive until November, and someone less cool-headed than Stanislaw Petrov mans the switch that fateful day. Convinced of a secret US first strike disguised as a training exercise, the USSR launches ICBMs towards predominantly military targets in the US and Western Europe. Retaliation is swift. China is drawn into the conflagration, and India and Pakistan let loose as well.

The devastation wrought to high command and general military capability on both sides is tremendous. Nuclear exchanges are limited to the first couple of weeks; eventually, a de facto ceasefire emerges between Soviet and US forces, while the remnants of Western European NATO forces manage to turn back a Soviet invasion.

Soviet government simply collapses; the central governments simply don't have the ability to enforce laws or supply people's needs beyond a certain distance. Much of Russia falls into lawlessness. Some local warlords attempt to carve pocket empires out of what remains. In Siberia and the Republics, the surviving population simply organizes itself along whatever lines it can. A de facto wave of secession sweeps the far East.

The US government is decapitated in the attack; the successor to the presidency places the country under martial law. Neither democracy nor the country itself are ever fully restored.

90s:

In China and India, civil wars erupt, splitting both countries along various lines. The borders are not firmed up for many years. Pakistan, while theoretically intact, is devastated by the exchange.

In the US, dissatisfaction among the populace receives no outlets in the coming decade, and eventually individual military units begin identifying with an increasingly-angry populace.

The general outbreak of secession fever worldwide polarizes movements elsewhere. In Canada, Bouchard catches necrotizing fasciitis and has a leg amputated. His appearance on crutches drums up additional sympathy for the pro-secession side. An undiagnosed heart defect is aggravated by the strain of his recovery; he serendipitously dies before the voting on the Referandum has completed and been tallied. The Unity Rally in Montreal turns into a riot; Mike Harris is mobbed and badly-injured. The vote tips in favor of secession, and the Quebecois parliament immediately votes upon and implements Bill 1. The Maritime provinces and Newfoundland follow. British Columbia follows suit not long after, followed by Alberta and Saskatchewan together.

Aughts:

Mexico divides into three countries (del Norte, Mexico, and a Zapatista Mayan Republic).

In the US, a popular movement leads to a civil and military revolution, but in the aftermath, the nation is divided into pieces. Several of these successor states will fail spectacularly before the decade is out.
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