The Luftwaffe needs to inflict 25-30% more losses to Fighter Command before they actually run out of reserves - that's another 250-300 aircraft (assuming that we are talking about early to mid September 1940). From that point onwards FC will be in an ever increasing decline. Fighter Command started with a force of roughly 1000 aircraft and gained another 1100 (940 new and 160 repaired) or so by the end of August whilst losing about 1000 aircraft either destroyed or seriously damaged. September became the critical month with only 500 replacement aircraft but over 700 destroyed or damaged.
They Fought on the Beaches
- Thread starter Ace009
- Start date
hipper
Banned
Hi Ian I think your estimate of aircraft repaired in August and September is on the low side.
Cheers Hipper
Yes there should be an extra 100 or so in each case, I should have been paying more attention, so its 'gained 1200 by the end of August' and '600 replacement aircraft' in September. Thanks ...
So, what does this mean for the number of aircraft lost in ATL (in total)?
Sorry, but this needs to go in the ASB section, IMO.
Realistically, there is zero chances of the LW inflicting so high an attrition rate on FC. Fully 45% of FC was outside of the LW range, being kept in reserve for THE DAY (and half the forces actually committed to the BoB were to join them if they ever went down to below 50%)
In addition, even if the RAF was fully eliminated, the Heer would not be as successful as described.
Furthermore, the date is very implausible, as automn storms will soon clause the channel to the german barges, so there is no way to support the troops even if all goes well. Also the tides are wrong at this period, as is the moon, IIRC (not absolutely sure of the later).
Finally, Germany did not have the capabilities to transport the troops names in the timeframe indicated, nevermind doing it in seas contested by the RN.
If you want a plausible TL where Germans tried sealion, I suggest the following link:
http://www.oocities.org/drammos/sealion1.html
Realistically, there is zero chances of the LW inflicting so high an attrition rate on FC. Fully 45% of FC was outside of the LW range, being kept in reserve for THE DAY (and half the forces actually committed to the BoB were to join them if they ever went down to below 50%)
In addition, even if the RAF was fully eliminated, the Heer would not be as successful as described.
Furthermore, the date is very implausible, as automn storms will soon clause the channel to the german barges, so there is no way to support the troops even if all goes well. Also the tides are wrong at this period, as is the moon, IIRC (not absolutely sure of the later).
Finally, Germany did not have the capabilities to transport the troops names in the timeframe indicated, nevermind doing it in seas contested by the RN.
If you want a plausible TL where Germans tried sealion, I suggest the following link:
http://www.oocities.org/drammos/sealion1.html
These figures are a very rough guide... Fighter Command started with 1000 aircraft, they produced a further 1800 and repaired another 700... that's a force of 3500 aircraft. 1000 were lost, 1000 were damaged which means there are still 1500 aircraft left at the end of the battle OTL. By the end of August production and losses were about even, after that production would be greater than losses so Fighter Command would always be increasing in strength from the middle of September onwards. You need to destroy/damage a further 250-300 aircraft by the end of August... or roughly 1500 in total (damaged and destroyed).
Oh. So, 1500 aircraft lost is enough for Operation: Sea Lion to go ahead in ATL?
The other factor to be considered is the number of pilots. Not all planes lost resulted in a lost pilot (on the British side, anyway. It pretty much did for the Luftwaffe, but that's the penalty of playing away from home). On the other hand, it's quicker and easier to produce a plane than a pilot.
It's a complicated equation.
"On the 19th of January of 1943, the Soviet Union began its push towards Berlin and its conquest of Eastern Europe, with the advance led by Marshall Georgy Zhukov. The advance was difficult, as the Nazis and their non-Italian allies in Europe offered fierce resistance at every corner. Of course, by June of 1943, the Soviets had secured Northern Romania, half of Eastern Poland, and Königsberg (modern day Kalinigrad), while Budapest was under siege by Red Army. It was a long and arduous fight, with the Axis powers attempting to stand for every inch of ground. As the Soviets pushed ever closer to Warsaw, Hitler ordered the acceleration of the Final Solution, and the destruction of Warsaw as one of the first acts to accelerate this process. However, before the Germans could start, Warsaw rose up in revolt, and as Red Army forces approached, Warsaw was liberated. The Germans were sent on the retreat and the bad news? Berlin was next......." - The Race to Berlin: A Brief Glimpse
"As Warsaw was liberated by the Russians and the Germans continued to lose ground, the Germans resorted to all sorts of tactics to accelerate the Final Solution, like mass gassing, burning entire villages and towns, destroying population centres, and even outright mass executions. Stalin's men were not any better to Germans, especially in later years, but many were shocked at the sheer horror the Germans were unleashing. Of course, people would attempt to revolt as the Soviet advance pushed further into Poland, and by the 11th of September of 1943, Eastern Europe was liberated by the Soviets, and Prussia was being overrun." - Genocide in the 20th Century: A Complete History; Chapter 15: The Holocaust
"The Winter of 1943 and 1944 was brutal for both sides. Both German and Soviet forces fought in brutal conditions in the snow, and atrocities on both sides were committed. The Germans attempted a counteroffensive in November of 1944 along the Oder River, but it failed. The Battle of the Oder-Neisse was a complete disaster for the Germans and from there, Berlin was exposed. The Soviets finally reached Berlin on the 17th of December of 1944, and on the 2nd of January, the Soviet flag was raised above the Reichstag. Hitler was killed in the fighting, and Himmler became the new Führer of the Reich. It was short-lived, however, and by the 25th of April of 1944, Germany was completely overrun. The War in Europe ended, but the Second World War was far from over. Across the globe, there was still another enemy the Allies and the Soviets needed to worry about....." - The Last Days of the Reich: A Brief Overview
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Coming soon: the Pacific theater!
Oh and NOTE: I am reading through the comments on this thread and it turns out that I need to fix some things. So, for any of you, I have to ask for advice: if September of 1940 is not the best date to launch Sea Lion, what do you suggest I do, go with the original 1941 date I had during the timeline's planning?
Oh and sorry about the delay.
"As Warsaw was liberated by the Russians and the Germans continued to lose ground, the Germans resorted to all sorts of tactics to accelerate the Final Solution, like mass gassing, burning entire villages and towns, destroying population centres, and even outright mass executions. Stalin's men were not any better to Germans, especially in later years, but many were shocked at the sheer horror the Germans were unleashing. Of course, people would attempt to revolt as the Soviet advance pushed further into Poland, and by the 11th of September of 1943, Eastern Europe was liberated by the Soviets, and Prussia was being overrun." - Genocide in the 20th Century: A Complete History; Chapter 15: The Holocaust
"The Winter of 1943 and 1944 was brutal for both sides. Both German and Soviet forces fought in brutal conditions in the snow, and atrocities on both sides were committed. The Germans attempted a counteroffensive in November of 1944 along the Oder River, but it failed. The Battle of the Oder-Neisse was a complete disaster for the Germans and from there, Berlin was exposed. The Soviets finally reached Berlin on the 17th of December of 1944, and on the 2nd of January, the Soviet flag was raised above the Reichstag. Hitler was killed in the fighting, and Himmler became the new Führer of the Reich. It was short-lived, however, and by the 25th of April of 1944, Germany was completely overrun. The War in Europe ended, but the Second World War was far from over. Across the globe, there was still another enemy the Allies and the Soviets needed to worry about....." - The Last Days of the Reich: A Brief Overview
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Coming soon: the Pacific theater!
Oh and NOTE: I am reading through the comments on this thread and it turns out that I need to fix some things. So, for any of you, I have to ask for advice: if September of 1940 is not the best date to launch Sea Lion, what do you suggest I do, go with the original 1941 date I had during the timeline's planning?
Oh and sorry about the delay.