What-ifs inspired by the biography of South Vietnamese President, Ngo Dinh Diem
Although he didn't have the street cred of Ho Chi Minh or his friend Phan Boi Chau, Ngo Dinh Diem had a role as a respected provincial official in French Indochina going back to the 1930s.
Here's a few what-ifs based on incidents in his life that could have easily gone the other way:
He studied to be a priest before he dropped out and chose administration instead
1) What if he became a priest? What happens when he's removed from the field of Vietnamese non-communist nationalist politics? Perhaps not much, for awhile, but by the end of the French Indochina war his absence *has* to have an effect on the non-communist sector in southern Vietnam where the supporters of Bao Dai regrouped
He sought Japanese support during WWII for Vietnamese independence. According to some, when the Japanese booted the Vichy French regime in March 1945 and had Bao Dai declare independence, they asked Diem to be Premier, but he declined, and then tried to change his mind, but the Japanese picked someone else, Tran Trong Kim, while he dithered.
2) What if the Japanese chose Ngo Dinh Diem as their puppet Prime Minister(or he accepted the offer they might have actually made to him in OTL 1945)? It would be an imperial regime with Bao Dai or possibly Cuong De as monarch. Could he establish roots & support enabling him to survive postwar? Or would he become quickly discredited and a dead duck from both Viet Minh and Allied resentment? If he’s a survivor, maybe his career is more like Aung San or Suharto
He was a captive of the Viet Minh in the August 1945 revolution, and they tried to recruit him. Although he refused to join them, he was let out of captivity alive.
3) What if the Communists killed Ngo Dinh Diem when they had him in captivity in summer 1945? Somebody else needs to be PM in 1954
In 1954 Nguyen Van Hinh, the head of the army of the new state in southern Vietnam, made up of those Vietnamese who had fought on the French side, openly bragged he was going to launch a coup against Diem. Instead, Diem ousted Hinh.
4) What if Hinh won? The French very much seemed to favor General Hinh over Diem, and when he was ousted in OTL Hinh retired to France.
Would the French from without or domestic upheavals within force General Hinh to hold reunification elections in 1956? Or could Hinh or a successor establish a southern state capable of lasting a decade or longer?
A communist supporter tried to shoot Diem in 1957.
5) What if Diem was shot and killed in 1957, more or less the pinnacle of his success and the lowpoint of the South Vietnamese communist cadre.
Officers attempting a coup in 1960 tried to bomb his palace
6) What if the coup attempt of 1960 succeeded?
7)
What if Diem was not overthrown in 1963? Pick your reason – same US administration but with a different attitude, preempts generals, or there is a different US President or US Ambassador in the early 1960s.