There's "Ngo Limit" to the Possibilities- What-ifs about a Vietnamese family

raharris1973

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What-ifs inspired by the biography of South Vietnamese President, Ngo Dinh Diem

Although he didn't have the street cred of Ho Chi Minh or his friend Phan Boi Chau, Ngo Dinh Diem had a role as a respected provincial official in French Indochina going back to the 1930s.

Here's a few what-ifs based on incidents in his life that could have easily gone the other way:

He studied to be a priest before he dropped out and chose administration instead

1) What if he became a priest? What happens when he's removed from the field of Vietnamese non-communist nationalist politics? Perhaps not much, for awhile, but by the end of the French Indochina war his absence *has* to have an effect on the non-communist sector in southern Vietnam where the supporters of Bao Dai regrouped

He sought Japanese support during WWII for Vietnamese independence. According to some, when the Japanese booted the Vichy French regime in March 1945 and had Bao Dai declare independence, they asked Diem to be Premier, but he declined, and then tried to change his mind, but the Japanese picked someone else, Tran Trong Kim, while he dithered.

2) What if the Japanese chose Ngo Dinh Diem as their puppet Prime Minister(or he accepted the offer they might have actually made to him in OTL 1945)? It would be an imperial regime with Bao Dai or possibly Cuong De as monarch. Could he establish roots & support enabling him to survive postwar? Or would he become quickly discredited and a dead duck from both Viet Minh and Allied resentment? If he’s a survivor, maybe his career is more like Aung San or Suharto

He was a captive of the Viet Minh in the August 1945 revolution, and they tried to recruit him. Although he refused to join them, he was let out of captivity alive.

3) What if the Communists killed Ngo Dinh Diem when they had him in captivity in summer 1945? Somebody else needs to be PM in 1954

In 1954 Nguyen Van Hinh, the head of the army of the new state in southern Vietnam, made up of those Vietnamese who had fought on the French side, openly bragged he was going to launch a coup against Diem. Instead, Diem ousted Hinh.

4) What if Hinh won? The French very much seemed to favor General Hinh over Diem, and when he was ousted in OTL Hinh retired to France.
Would the French from without or domestic upheavals within force General Hinh to hold reunification elections in 1956? Or could Hinh or a successor establish a southern state capable of lasting a decade or longer?

A communist supporter tried to shoot Diem in 1957.

5) What if Diem was shot and killed in 1957, more or less the pinnacle of his success and the lowpoint of the South Vietnamese communist cadre.

Officers attempting a coup in 1960 tried to bomb his palace

6) What if the coup attempt of 1960 succeeded?

7)
What if Diem was not overthrown in 1963? Pick your reason – same US administration but with a different attitude, preempts generals, or there is a different US President or US Ambassador in the early 1960s.
 
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raharris1973

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The PoDs above are based on minimal change from OTL- The ones below are based on somewhat more creative, but still possible, foundations:

8) What if the Japanese overthrew the Vichy French in December 1942 and made Ngo Dinh Diem their puppet Prime Minister then? It would be an imperial regime with Bao Dai or possibly Cuong De as monarch. Could he establish roots & support enabling him to survive postwar? Or would he become quickly discredited and a dead duck from both Viet Minh and Allied resentment? [Note that this Vietnamese puppet/client state of Japan would have more time to exist than OTL's puppet "Empire of Vietnam" that lasted from March to August 1945, so that regime could have more time to acquire political loyalties but also more time to disappoint people and be implicated in crimes of collaboration]. In OTL, Ngo did advocate Japanese support Vietnamese independence, and in 1944 he fled internally from impending arrest by the Vichy French for protection in a Japanese base. While collaborating with Japan has drawbacks, it may not be an automatic kiss of death in the postwar, going by the experience of Burma and Indonesia.

9) What if the Nationalist Chinese sponsored Ngo Dinh Diem (or big bro) as the leader of a governing coalition when they occupied northern Indochina and suppressed the Viet Minh? From there, they could have bargained & eventually conceded territory back to France in exchange for Chinese interests, or they could have firmly stuck by Ngo & continued to sabotage French return north of the 17th parallel.

If the Chinese still negotiated a French return to the north, could Diem and other noncommunists hold out as guerrillas? Would the US take any different tack than OTL with there being an anti-communist, anti-colonialist faction occupying the government offices in Hanoi from Sept-Oct 1945 to March 1946? If the Chinese stood by Diem, would their support eventually hurt him? How long could China afford to exert influence. If the Chinese veto continues through 1947, would the French still try to move north? Would they possibly recognize a Vietnam of Tonkin or Annam, and uphold a separate Cochinchina?

10) What if Diem fully backed land reforms on the Japan-Taiwan model during his years of peak power in the 1950s? He did work with the same land reform consultant that worked in Japan and Taiwan, Wolf Ladejinsky, but he modified the suggested plan to allow maximum holdings 10 times larger than in either of those countries. Would land reform greatly strengthen his political positions?

11) What if Ngo Dinh Diem's elder brother, Ngo Dinh Khoi was not killed in summer 1945? He could have a possibly become a political future. He had been a provincial official but had retired from his post. On the other hand, Ngo Dinh Diem's stated reason for not cooperating with the Viet Minh when he was asked to, was that they killed his brother. So perhaps, at least in the summer of 1945 Ngo could align with the Viet Minh, with interesting effects on his own career and life at least.
 
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