There is no place like Baghdad - An alternate Arab Spring POD (1988-...)

The end of the war, 1988

After 8 years of continuous war between Iraq and Iran, peace is finally been made. A UN mandate made an end to the war costing to hundreds of thousands of human lifes. The results however were not the same for both countries. Iran saved it’s province Khuzestan, reduced the amount of Arab separatism due to the Iraqi loss and the new revolutionary government had enough prestige and legitimacy in the eyes of the Iranian population. The debt and human losses were at the end worth it. Iraq however wasn’t in a good position. Many people and soldiers died due to the consequences of war, the crackdown of suspected pro-Iranian Iraqis. Khuzestan wasn’t ‘liberated’ and there was a ton of debt gained in 8 years of war. Saddam was, the least to say, not happy with the results. And now there was an even bigger tension with the Iraqi Kurdish population.


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Iraqi soldiers treated like hero’s after the war was over, 1988



Rebuilding process (1988-1996)

As soon as the war was over, the question in Iraq was, what will happen next? Will Iraq start recover from the war or will there be a witch hunt against suspected ‘traitors’? In the first two years after the war, Saddam was sure about restoring Iraqi glory. This could be against anyone. Reality shows him only two targets: Kuwait and Syria. Kuwait for its historical ties with Iraq like Khuzestan. It was of course the weakest of the two. But the power behind the Kuwaiti’s is what bothered the Iraqi military. The Gulf states will likely back Kuwait and there is no telling how the USA, only recently a partner against Iran, would react. Saddam was sure about the power of the Iraqi Army. They would, without a doubt cause trouble among the Kuwaiti allies. And then there was Syria. Syria ruled by the same Ba’ath Party but in reality, a rival of Baghdad. In 1982, they closed down the second Iraqi lifeline. This can’t and shouldn’t be forgiven. Iran won’t intervene for sure as they are exhausted of war. Regardless, the Military leaders of the Iraqi Army, Iraqi ministers and even Qusay Hussein and the rest of his family members talked Saddam out his madness of a new war. Except for Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri and Uday Hussein, nobody favored war. The country needs to rebuild first. Saddam agreed. He agreed to clear Iraq of what he would describe as traitors. And so his purge would start.



The purge (1988-1991), Baghdad, August 1989


In a speech Saddam held in Baghdad, he targeted the Talabani faction and the Shi’ite supporters of SCIRI*. The Iraqi people were betrayed by the traitors who prefered Mullah tyranny over Iraq. The speech was to most Iraqis cliche. Saddam blamed his own loss on political enemies rather than himself. But the part the people feared was, anytime any moment, the Mukhabarat could start arresting people, the Republican Guards can be send to code-red regions. And the people can start fearing their lives. Except for the Iraqi Sunnis and Secularist Shiites, there wasn’t much support for Saddam. And the people feared right. Only 8 months later, Saddam Hussein declared a state of Emergency during several protests by Iraqi Shias in Karbala, Najaf, Basra and Nasiriyah. The Republican Guards were send in to force protesters to stop. The bloodiest one was in Najaf were 105 people died and another 351 were wounded.
 
My alternate Arab Spring. In this timeline, Iraq does not attack Kuwait therefore not attract the USA as an enemy. So no Gulf Wars. Ba'ath Iraq will also experience an Arab 'Spring'.
 
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Iraqi Shia rebels in Southern Iraq,
1990


The signs of Civil War in the South (1991-1993)

As soon as major crackdown by the military started, the situation became more tense. Especially in Nasiriyah. When the first crackdown started the middle class people started to flee the potential conflict zone. Nasiriyah, Amarah, Hillah, Karbala and Najaf have never been this abandoned. The people in towns are angered irritated poor Iraqi Shias. With the pro-Iranian clergy talking to overthrow the Ba’ath government for an Islamic government like Iran. The Shia clergy were divided about this topic. Should Iraq become an Islamic State? A Velayet Faqh? Or should the secular government continue. Due to the Mukhabarat crackdowns on all clergymen deemed as a threat, the pro-Secular clergymen remained silent. They were against Saddam but did not like Iran meddling in their state affairs. The following protests in Southern Iraq became more violent when soldiers started to desert the Army and join the protesters with weapons and in some cities even with tanks. When things got violent, the Army retreated from some cities in Southern Iraq on order of the Baghdad government. The Republican Guards were send in to end all form of rebellion and punish the rebels. During the lawless time in the Southern Iraqi cities, Islamic councils were established as the start for an Islamic rule. The SCIRI appointed clergymen to control the authority in towns and uphold the Sharia Law. The short but strong rule of SCIRI feared the people in Baghdad what was waiting for them. Many Sunni Arab volunteered for the Ba’ath forces against the pro Iranian Iraqis. As far as the Sunnis were concerned, the war with Iran was still not over yet. In the 1992-1993 campaign, order was restored in Southern Iraq. Around 8,032 people died, 29,989 were wounded, 1,114 were lost and about 210,000 people fled Southern Iraq for Kuwait, Iran and Saudi Arabia. About 60,000 fled to other parts of Iraq.



The war in the North (1991-1994)

When the situation in the South started to heat up, the Iraqi Kurds saw there chance to act. Around 200,000 protesters drove the 1,200 Military garrison out of Erbil. In Sulaimaniya, 100,000 protesters took over government buildings while the 500 soldiers in town evacuated to Kirkuk. The police force were a little less lucky. Many of the policemen in town were held captive by the protesters. In Kirkuk as well, Iraqi Kurds took the streets. Here as well around 200,000 Kurds were protesting and trying to take over government buildings. But unlucky Iraqi Kurds of Kirkuk had to face a bigger force in the city. The Republican Guards, 1,000 men strong and 3,500 Iraqi soldiers with 20 tanks in town. The protests were repelled with by the Iron fist of the Iraqi Army. 215 people died in 12 days of protests and 1,028 were wounded. As soon as the situation in Kirkuk was under control the Iraqi Army in Kirkuk dispatched a force for Sulaimaniya. There were accusations that Iran was arming the Iraq Kurds. It was necessary to stop the supply routes to Erbil immediately. After an occupation of 412 days, the Iraqi Army returned to Sulaymaniyah and suppressed all form of protests. The restoration of order in Sulaymaniyah caused the death of 589 people and 2,344 wounded. The last to end but bloodiest uprising in the North was in Erbil. When the Iraqi Army captured the town 1,347 people died and 10,093 were wounded. Even the Iraqi Army suffered heavy casualties with around 101 soldiers died, 4 tanks destroyed and around 567 soldiers wounded. A total of 5,222 people died and 22,175 people were wounded in the Iraqi Kurdish uprising. A total of 400,000 people fled Northern Iraq for Turkey and Iran. Another 50,000 fled to somewhere else in Iraq.



The reaction of the world

As expected many countries in the West condemned the Iraqi government on how they acted against their own people. One of those countries was the USA. But to no surprise, the USA blocked any UN resolution to stop the Iraqi government in their campaign of terror. Between 1980 and 2005, the US was the biggest arms supplier of the Iraqi Army. In return Iraq was continuing to sell its oil in dollars and giving intel about Iran to Washington. The campaign of terror in Iraq between 1990 and 1995 was remaining in the Shadow due to larger conflicts in former Yugoslavia, Caucasus and the recently ended Civil War in Lebanon. The Civil war in Afghanistan had even more attention in US media. As far as the Iraqi opposition is concerned, there is no media attention for their cause.



Situation of the world (1989-1999)


Since the 1980s the world starter to change. The Soviets lost the war in Afghanistan and left the Afghan government to its fate, at the hands of the Mujahideen. The war wasn’t over in Afghanistan but the communists were ousted and and there is power struggle between the Northern Alliance of Ahmad Shah Massoud, Hekmatyar's Hezb-I Islami and of course, the newly created Taliban and their Al Qaeda allies, supported by Pakistan. The end of the war is not in sight.

The Yugoslav war has its roots since the death of Tito. His successor, Milosevic proved to be more a leader of the Serbian cause than a socialist leader of Yugoslavia. This feeling became stronger when the autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina were revoked by Milosevic in favor of the Serbian autonomous government. The Slovenes were the first to realise that Yugoslavia will not have a ‘bright’ future. As soon as they saw fit they wanted to leave. And by December 1990 they left Yugoslavia and declared their independence. There were military actions prepared by the Federal government but there was only a little fight. The war became bigger when Croatia declared independence in June 1991 after the Croatian found out there was no real attempt to bring back Slovenia to Yugoslavia. The conflict between the Croatian Armed forces against the Federal Army and Serbian militia from Krajina became much bigger with the Federal Army occupying Osijek, Sisak and besieging Zagreb. It seemed to be going all well until the Bosnians declared their independence in November 1991, seeing Yugoslavia nothing more as a Greater Serbia. Under the leadership of Alija Izetbegovic, the Bosnian Armed Forces were formed by former Bosnian soldiers of the Yugoslavia. Much to annoyance of the Bosnian Serbs who were angered against any form of Independence. The Bosnian Serbs in return formed their own Republika Srpska within Bosnia a month later, as an attempt to rejoin Serb dominated Yugoslavia. At last, there was Macedonia which declared their independence earlier than the Bosnians but were ignored by Belgrade. And the war continuous.

The Soviet Union wasn’t experiencing a good time since the 70s. Things become worse in the 80s. The Soviets could no longer be a concurrent of the USA in military, technology and influence around the world. And as soon as Gorbatsjov became the leader of the Soviet Union, things accelerated from bad to worse. At first, the communist countries in Eastern Europe acted independently from Moscow, allowing open elections for everyone. This became more evident in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. More violent was in Romania, Bulgaria and East Germany were the police force attacked the protestors. In Romania, Ceausescu fled the military and protestors to Bulgaria and then fleeing to Cuba all together with his family. In 1990, East Germany joined West Germany. The result of this caused mixed feelings in Europe, about a possible German threat of Europe. In the same year, the Baltic States declared Independence. By 1991, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Belarus left the USSR. The new map of Europe has changed a lot. And because of it, it started new conflicts, mainly in the Caucasus.


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New map of Europe, 1991
 

Rebuilding process (1993-1995)


After the tension was as good as gone by 1993, Saddam started to rebuild the neglected infrastructure in the South and the North. This wasn’t really about the comfort of the people per se. But more to support army units in the the former rebellions and to support import and export in Iraq. Since the Iran-Iraq war, production and sale of oil dropped. The uprisings in the country made it even worse. While in 1970, Iraq was selling 3,5 million crude oil a day, it was now 3,6 million crude oil a day per 1993. The money generated by the oil would help to keep up military actions against rebels who fled the cities after the Government forces had entered it. In the South mostly to marshes and Iran, In the North, mostly to the mountains. The Ba’ath Party had in mind to expand the existing railroads in Iraq. Expanding it, would help Iraq's export, mostly crude oil to the port of Basra. A second line would be from Basra to Baghdad through Al Amarah and Al Kut. This will be the first to be build. The second one would be for more military vehicles and motorised brigades in the North. A line from Kirkuk to Sulaymaniyah and from Erbil to Duhok. The last one were smaller ones to Baqubah and Mandali in Diyalah and to Ruthbah from Ramadi For this to be realised, some villages had to go, some towns will have to destroy buildings and houses. The enforced project let another 50,000 people homeless, forced to be resettled. At last, the Central Station of Baghdad would have to add more railroads as well. It would take 10 years to finish with the entire project. It would create jobs. It is in the eyes of the Ba’ath Party worth it. As far as the Iraqi Ba’ath Party was concerned, the more Iraq developed, the more countries would value Iraq above rival Syria. In order to start the project, Iraq was looking for investors as well. The investors were found in China. An economic rival of the USA but more than willing to invest in Iraq. For the Ba’ath Party, a concurrence between the US and another world power would benefit Iraq. To fuel the concurrence and generate more wealth, the oil industry must produce more barrels of oil per day. The 3,6 million per day has to rise to 4,5 million per day in the next 7 years.

Except for the infrastructure, the Ba’ath Party als promoted a literacy program. Every last Iraqi had to read and write. The Literacy Rate in Iraq was in 1993, 79% for men, 61% for women. By the year 2000, this has to rise to 90% of the men and 70% of the women. By 2010 the Iraqi Literacy rate must be no less than an average 99%.

For Saddam, Iraq has to be the most developed Arab state in 2010, comparable or even higher than Turkey. The GDP of of 194,5 Billion dollars had to cross 200 billion the year 2000.

At last, there was strong sense of a stronger Iraqi agriculture. Iraq has produce more wheat, corn, potatoes and cotton. Kettle and fisheries would be promoted as well. This wasn’t particularly Saddams idea but more influence by Nationalist factions within the Ba’ath Party. In case of a new war, Iraq can partly rely on their own food source.

With infrastructure, economy and education, Iraq became more ambitious. This ambition started to rival and leave rival Syria in the Iraqi Shadow. This was, project Iraq 2000. While the most educated and the middle class Iraqis had doubts in this project, the poor Iraqis saw it as a hope to develop their lives. The Ba’ath Party was slightly getting popular again in the towns. In the Rural lands, the Ba’ath Party was still hated. The hate became more when in later years, the Ba’ath Party started to enforce the Wheat law (1999) in Iraq. A 20% of the lands should grow wheat and given to the Iraqi government. To enforce this, the Republican Guards would keep watching it.




Demographics of Iraq

Iraq has been a diverse country for more than a thousand years. The main religion is Islam, particularly Shiism. The second non-Islamic religion was Christianity.


Religion (1995):

Islam 91%

  • Shiism 57%

  • Sunnism 35%
Christianity 7%

Mandeism 0.9%

Yazidis 0.8%

Judaism 0.3%


Ethnicity (1995):


Arab 75%*

Kurdish 15%

Turkmen 6%

Iranian 0.8%

Circassian 0.8%

Others 2.4%


*The Assyrian population was added to the Arab population. Most of the Assyrian population sproke Arabic in both Rural and Urban areas.


Fertility rates, Birth rates and death rates (1995):

4.1 Births per woman

435,000 births per year

102,000 deaths per year
 
What are the impact to the greater area without the first gulf war? It seems like this changes things in the ussr the USA, the gulf states and Iran
 
What are the impact to the greater area without the first gulf war? It seems like this changes things in the ussr the USA, the gulf states and Iran

The Gulf War did not happen. Therefore Iraq remains in the shadow of the Iranian theocracy as international pariah.

The USSR is gone. Poof. Divided. A 1988 pod can't save them. But... there will be resurgent Russia. And then Iraq will look for whoever is a better ally. The USA remains supportive of Iraq as long as oil comes through and dollar is used.

For the greater area, there is rivalry between Syria and Iraq. Syria supported Iran in the war and will now support opposition factions. Anything to destabilise Iraq. Iraq in return would do the same. So an earlier support for terror activity is a thing. But for now, Iraq is a safe place without the US bombing it in which case the majority Middle class will remain in Iraq.
 
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How are the Israelis and the other Gulf States reacting to a rebuilding Iraq? What is Iran doing at this time?

Israel is aware of the treath but as long as it isn't anything military or nuclear, there is no Israeli action. There will be support for Iraqi Kurds if they were to take arms again.

The Gulf States use Iraq as a counterweight against Iran. You might see a Gulf alliance against Iran and Shia organisation with post-Saddam Iraq. Saddam in the 90s distrusts the Gulf States and vice versa. But the Shia Majority in Iraq is what refrains the Gulf States from indirectly turning Iraq into a Shia dominated state.
 
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Arab conference of Giza, August 1995


“Honourable leaders of Arabian republics and kingdoms. We are gathered here to talk about the future of all Arab countries. A future where our children and the generations afterwards should live in peace, order and security. We are a noble people, descendant of our Holy Prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him. Our Prophet, his Ahl al Bayt and his Sahaba proved that Arabs are capable in everything. We have the Legacy of our Prophet and we are obligated to continue what they left for us. The Arabs states, the people of all religions whether they’re Muslim, Christian, Sunni, Shia, Orthodox, Maronite, Assyrians, we have more potential than they let us believe as long as we work together. That is, honourable men of the Middle East and North Africa, I, the representative of my country Iraq, suggest an alliance between the Arab countries in this conference. An economical and educational alliance to help the Arab countries grow and protect our people. Preference of people and goods from Arab countries should be priority. If we achieve this then the Israeli Government will fear us. The West will respect us and the Iranians will no longer threaten us. May Allah bless you all.”


These words were spoken by the Iraqi representative in Giza. The call for more economical and educational agreements between Arab countries. Although it might have been a populist call and an attempt to regain strength for Arab nationalism, it still was a good idea. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much support for it by a lot of Countries.


Pro economical and educational alliance:

  1. Iraq
  2. Somalia
  3. Libya
  4. Algeria
  5. Jordan
  6. Yemen
  7. Palestine
  8. Lebanon
  9. Somalia

Anti economical and educational alliance:

  1. Saudi Arabia
  2. Syria
  3. Qatar
  4. Egypt
  5. Bahrein
  6. Kuwait
  7. Tunisia
  8. Morocco

Undecided

  1. Sudan
  2. Mauritania
  3. Oman
  4. UAE

The lack of support made it impossible, especially due to low interest from royal Arab countries. The Saudi King refused to support it. The economical ally, the US was against it and so was Saudi Arabia, not trying to lose its strongest ally. The refusal however had positive effects in Iraq. The Ba’ath Party could now use this as propaganda against Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The expectations were that people would rally behind the Iraqi government and forget about domestic issues.




The religiosity of the common Iraqi, 1996

The Iraqi society experienced a secular life in cities. Islam still dominates the religious landscape, followed by Christianity as a minority. The people in towns, however were not conservative enough like the rural Iraqis. An example: an Iraqi from Baghdad could easily smoke or drink in clubs (although the government attempts to halt it) without the locals making a problem of it. But in Rural Iraq, the religious community was still the factor that led to social control of the people. This did not include only Muslims but Christians, Yazidis as well. Another example is marriage. While in major towns and big cities, a Sunni man could marry a Shia woman, or vice versa. In the Rural lands, this happened only if there was need to strengthen ties between tribes or really good relationship between the co-religious. But normally, since the early 90s, the religious figures try to convince their followers not to marry people of different faith. The distrust of Sunnis and Shias outside towns and cities, rose. However, government policies still attempted to bring down the distrust and somewhat create a unity. An Iraqi Unity.



The rise of Iraq 1995-2005 and the Iraqi Kurdish Protests

The Iraqi government had already started their project2000. A goal to let Iraq grow in every positive possible way. The first would still be infrastructure. A new railroad was already being built from Baghdad to Basra through Amarah. The Iraqi government estimates this cost of 0,8 billion dollars. In order to pay for it, foreign investors were attracted, bringing up 150 million dollars together. Many oil companies saw a chance for better transport of North Iraqi Oil to Basra. Most of these investors were from the United States, United Kingdom China and Germany. But the problems here were real. The Iraqi Kurds saw their independence being threatened and losing more oil income for future independence. The outlawed Iraqi Kurdish party PUK called for mass demonstrations, attracting 100,000 people in Erbil, 60,000 in Kirkuk and 120,000 Sulaymaniyah as a beginner. Masoud Barazani’s PDK however, did not participate, calling the PUK demonstrations an Iranian backed one and not a Kurdish one. Indeed, Iran saw this part of the project as a threat in concurrence. The Chinese, who were the biggest investors in the railroad project, were also the biggest importers of Iranian oil. If Iraqi offers an alternative to China, Iran will lose a major source of income. Masoud Barzani saw some good parts of the project, Phase 2: The Sulaymaniyah-Duhok railroad. This would connect the Iraqi Kurdish region more with each other. Barzani saw this as a chance to discredit PUK. As soon as Masoud Barzani made his voice heard for the project, the amount of protesters decreased. In Erbil, there were 30,000 protesters left, in Kirkuk 20,000 and in Sulaymaniyah still 90,000, being the base of PUK. Saddam initially wanted to crush the protests, but intervention from the Ba’ath Party convinced him to talk with Barzani. Barzani openly supported the parts of the project in Northern Iraq and thus lowering the Kurdish support for it. The biggest role for this success however was granted for Qusay Hussein, the oldest son of Saddam Hussein and possible successor.
Already busy with the infrastructure and restoring the pre- and post-Ottoman railway stations, the Iraqi government raised fundings again. This time, It was for the literacy campaign. State funded clergy, teachers, all were funded if they worked in government schools and Madrassas and thought the populace to read and write. The success of this was the growing literacy rate more than expected. In 1993, the literacy rate was 79% for men while 61% for women. By 1999, the literacy rate for men was 96% and 89% for women. It went even better than expected by the Ba’ath Party.




Iraqi role around the world

Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq started to rebuild itself rather than starting another war what most Arab and Western countries expected. Some journalists in the US believed that Iraq would invade Syria for their support of Iran. So the relatively peaceful time in Iraq was surprising. However, this was not the case internationally. Saddam became more focussed on the Islamic population around the world. In 1994 he sent one of the best weapons and some of the newly recruited Republican Guards as volunteers to the Army of Alija Izetbegovic. In 1998, he sent shipments of weapons to Kosovo through Albania. One would think Saddam Hussein was now focussed on the Islamic cause rather than the Arab one. But the more unknown yet most logical explanation was that Saddam tried to halt Iranian influence among the Muslims in need. The pro-Iran sympathy had to decrease in the eyes of Saddam Hussein.

This help, however, did not make Saddam popular in the eyes of the US. In the US media, there were starting speculations of Saddam aiding Muslim group hostile to the Americans. Overall, Saddam became popular in the eyes of conservative Muslims. For the first time, Saudi Arabia became more and more irritated with Iraq and its influence among the Muslims in need. The Saudi Royal Family was convinced that they would take care of the needy Muslims and they would be more open to their doctrine of faith. What Saddam did was not out of religion but for glory, as the Saudis and Iranians thought.
 
The Mukhabarat - 1998

Saddam was not really liked by Iraqi Shia Clergy since the early 90s. Saddam viewed a decent share of the Shia Clergy as possible spies for Iran. But an all out purge was not happening, at least, Qusay Hussein was convincing everybody in the Ba’ath Party to not support it. In his mind Qusay would succeed his father and he would make Iraq a better place. Wealthier on par with European states. However, his fathers distrust of the clergy who represent no less than half the population of Iraq. The tensions will prevent any success for the future. And threats on the Iraqi Sayyids would only strengthen the Iranians among Shia Iraqis. Since 1996, Qusay had been working behind the back of his father with the Ba’ath Party and the Mukhabarat. Qusay was sure that they could not keep Iranian influence away as long as their own Shia Clergy who are at least Neutral against Iran are marginalized. Qusay and the Ba’ath Party used secret plans and men from the Mukhabarat to create a pro Iraqi sentiment among the Shia’s by supporting Shia clergy who are negative about Iran. These plans were kept off the documents of the Mukhabarat to not let Saddam Hussein hear about it. Saddam was after all busy with his own plans in the Islamic World. Saddam was planning to send Republican Guard units to Afghanistan to support Ahmad Shah Massoud in a way to hinder the Saudi State.


The Iraqis in Afghanistan and Kosovo - 1999

Saddam was obsessed with Iraqi influence in the Islamic World since the early 90s. Not afraid of sending some of his own soldiers to fight and die in distant countries like Kosovo, Chechnya and Afghanistan. Especially the latter was what got the interest of Saddam Hussein. Saddam viewed an Afghanistan with good ties with Iraq would surround Iran to the point that it would not dare for a new attack on the Iraqis. And cutting Saudi influence would be a good thing as well. Mostly tank commanders and officers were in Afghanistan to assist Ahmad Shah Massoud. Not only did Saddam support someone supported by the USA, he prevented hostilities between the two states. A nation stronger than Iraq. The Iraqis in Kosovo were infantry units recently recruited among poor sunni peasants from Anbar and Diyala provinces. Fighting Yugoslav Federal Army in Drenice region together with the UCK. This information was however unknown for the world until Hafez Al Assad gave this information before his death to Milosevic. In Chechnya, Iraqi soldiers dressed as Chechen rebels were fighting. Every information of the soldiers were kept secret to not let the Russo-Iraqi relationship being tainted too much. Most of the Ba’ath Party knew that this information would not remain secret for too long but much more to do was not possible. Iraqi Army figures and Ba’ath Party officials were rather pleased with keeping Saddam’s attention around the globe rather than Iraq.


The Death of Hafez Al Assad - 2000

Hafez Al Assad, Saddam’s Syrian rival died after being ill for a long time. As far as Saddam was concerned this was a good time to oust his son Bashar Al Assad and replace him with a pro-Iraqi Sunni leader. It was a dangerous time as the Iraqi Army was massed for a massive military drill on the Syrian border with Bashar Al Assad doing the same. A threat of war was prevented as no nation wanted war. The Syrians still had a decent number of troops tied in Syria while Iraq still had to recover from the decade of war with iran not too long ago. Saddam refrained from starting a war with Syria but his attention was once again directed to Palestine and Afghanistan. Since 1997 there was a flood of weapons to Ahmad Shah Massoud, mostly old Soviet weapons. It went as far as sending older tanks through Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. Newly recruited Iraqi tank commanders were some of those Iraqis going to the Afghan battlefield. This was however problematic. Before the death of Hafez Al Assad he gave the order to give all information of Saddam in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Kosovo to the public. The death of Hafez was followed by nations as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Greece and some more condemning Saddam Hussein and Iraq. Before his death Hafez gave another blow to Saddam.


The preparations of Saddam - 2001

After the diplomatic tarnishment by the dying Hafez Al Assad Saddam was angered and turned his attention back to Iraq. It did not take too long until Saddam noticed Qusay Hussein worked behind his back and was preparing his own rule as soon as Saddam retires or dies. As Qusay was his son he did not want to execute him but he did want to punish him. Saddam gave hints of preparing Uday Hussein to be his successor. Within months Saddam made clear that Qusay was no longer the successor he had in mind and the more psychopathic Uday would be the successor. Fearing for a banishment Qusay Hussein made his last attempts to talk with government officials as well as Army units. His attempt to save himself and the Iraq of his mind could only work if senior figures as Tariq Aziz, Izzat Ibrahim Al Douri and the Army supported him. But the problem was the Republican Guard. It was not possible to remove Saddam without facing the Republican Guards. By December 2001, Qusay had prepared his support. He would remain quiet and apologize to his father in a way to ease the suspicion. As far as Saddam was concerned, Qusay would succeed him in 2005 when Saddam officially retires.


Iraqi Coup d’Etat of 2002 - 12 November 2002 - 03:15

On 11 November 2002 Uday Hussein was taken to a hospital after a serious illness at order of his father. Uday was sure that it was not serious but Saddam did not want to take risks and Uday was taken to a private hospital in Baghdad. Before the Coup the situation was tense. Saddam had declared some notable Shia Clergy as enemies of the state and there would be arrests. The Shia population of Saddam City was mobilised On nightfall, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 8th and 12th regiments of the Iraqi Army, The 6th, 9th and 13th Tank Division as well as 20 planes moved out. The pro-Qusay Officer who had replaced Uday until his comeback kept the Republican Guard units at their base until the Coup Soldiers had raided all radical Ba’ath Party members as well as pro-Qusay ministers and officers. The Coup started on 03.15. Saddam Hussein woke up only on the morning prayer to find out the Coup had happened and most of his loyalist had been removed from their posts. The Ba’ath Party declared that Saddam was going to retire and Qusay would assume the leadership per 2 January 2002.


END OF THE PRELUDE (1988-2002)

I did not feel like spending too much time in this era as I want to move quickly towards the Arab Spring Era. But the 2002-2018 era will get more detailed than this...
 
In Chechnya, Iraqi soldiers dressed as Chechen rebels were fighting. Every information of the soldiers were kept secret to not let the Russo-Iraqi relationship being tainted too much. Most of the Ba’ath Party knew that this information would not remain secret for too long but much more to do was not possible. Iraqi Army figures and Ba’ath Party officials were rather pleased with keeping Saddam’s attention around the globe rather than Iraq.
Not happening,Volunteers being allowed to go sure but actual Iraqi army forces not happening.
 
Not happening,Volunteers being allowed to go sure but actual Iraqi army forces not happening.

Not Army units. Soldiers of unit as volunteers. It is not like Iraq sends an Army regiment which won't happen unless one is suicidal. You may see it as Pakistani Soldiers crossing the border and fighting for their Afghan Allies in the Civil War.
 
Not Army units. Soldiers of unit as volunteers. It is not like Iraq sends an Army regiment which won't happen unless one is suicidal. You may see it as Pakistani Soldiers crossing the border and fighting for their Afghan Allies in the Civil War.
I don't see it that happening given Russia is Iraq most important ally. What I can see is Islamist volunteers being allowed to go with the intent of getting them killed in Chechnya or out of the country so there not a problem for Iraq.
 
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