Theoretical States: West- and East Yugoslavia

If there were a theoretical states like a capitalist West Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia) and socialist East Yugoslavia (Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Western Thrace, Greek Macedonia)...

Which of these states would be stronger, stable and likely to make it to the 21th century with a PoD of 1945.

And...

How likely is such scenario? Impossible, hard, possible, very likely...
 
If there were a theoretical states like a capitalist West Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia) and socialist East Yugoslavia (Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Western Thrace, Greek Macedonia)...

Which of these states would be stronger, stable and likely to make it to the 21th century with a PoD of 1945.

And...

How likely is such scenario? Impossible, hard, possible, very likely...
So you have a communist north greece as part of east Yugoslavia?
 
If there were a theoretical states like a capitalist West Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia) and socialist East Yugoslavia (Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Western Thrace, Greek Macedonia)...

Which of these states would be stronger, stable and likely to make it to the 21th century with a PoD of 1945.

And...

How likely is such scenario? Impossible, hard, possible, very likely...
A much better handled Italian defection could allow the Allies to potentially push into the Ljubljana gap by '44. Notably this would allow also give them non-communist local allies, as prior to December 1944 there was a significant pro-western faction within the Slovenian Homeguard. From there it wouldn't be too hard to swing a drive to the south.

I'm curious as to what government a west/north Yugoslavia would have. Peter II's Serbian support base is mostly outside the country. A republic seems like the obvious choice, but as a rule of cool outside contender, the May Declaration originally called for the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs to be a Habsburg Kingdom and Churchill had a bit of a Habsburgaboo streak durring WWII. Probably almost impossible, but say it with me now, "Habsburg Yugoslavia".
 
Given the current hostility between Greece and N Macedonia I feel like this might make Kosovo look like small potatoes.
Not really. Unless they make something stupid like making one big Macedonia (greek Macedonia + slavic north Macedonia) I think they would be fine. In practice it only means that socialist greece would have to respect the rights of it's bulgarian minority.
 
Theoretically possible if Wallies manage take Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Tito fails take these territories. But why North Greece, Albania and Bulgaria would be part of East Yugoslavia? Albans and Greeks aren't Slavs and it would be very hard get Bulgaria to Yugoslavia.
 
An Western Yugoslavia is very possible. The agreements at the Yalta conference seemed at random, so it would be perfectly possible to agree to divide Yugoslavia 50-50.
I’m afraid such a country would become an authoritarian hellhole. Don’t think the Allies would undertake a thorough denazification in Croatia, especially as the minorities would continue to flock to the communist partisans and the borders are difficult to control. So the old Ustasa guard would still hold a lot of power.

An Eastern Yugoslavia as described is impossible. Three completely different and mutually incomprehensible languages. Different cultures and a history of hateand war. Besides, Stalin would never allow a too powerful Socialist country in the Balkans. Look what happened when Dimitrov and Koci Xoxe made tentative moves towards Tito.
 
An Western Yugoslavia is very possible. The agreements at the Yalta conference seemed at random, so it would be perfectly possible to agree to divide Yugoslavia 50-50.
I’m afraid such a country would become an authoritarian hellhole. Don’t think the Allies would undertake a thorough denazification in Croatia, especially as the minorities would continue to flock to the communist partisans and the borders are difficult to control. So the old Ustasa guard would still hold a lot of power.

An Eastern Yugoslavia as described is impossible. Three completely different and mutually incomprehensible languages. Different cultures and a history of hateand war. Besides, Stalin would never allow a too powerful Socialist country in the Balkans. Look what happened when Dimitrov and Koci Xoxe made tentative moves towards Tito.
I am not so shure that Stalin would keep this east Yugoslavia alive. In contrast with our Yugoslavia this one: is way weaker, is threatened by a western ustasa including state (also no western suport for SY in TTL, they have their own Yugoslavia), probably feels more threatened by their own internal divisions than by the USSR. Stalin and this Yugoslavia would get along just fine.
 
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