The Zimmerman Telegram

WilyBadger

Suppose the UK hadn't been able to decode the Zimmerman Telegram in 1917? What would the likely outcome of this be? History makes it seem likely that Mexico would have said, "Oh, heck no!" to the idea of declaring war on the USA. But what if things were a little different?

How does this sound for an idea? Suppose that Mexico was indeed interested in declaring war on the USA. I'm thinking perhaps they let Germany declare first. This causes the USA to move a large amount of troops away from the border with Mexico (we were already down there dealing with problems). Once the troops are on the East Coast, Mexico storms across the border, catching the USA at least somewhat off-guard. Further, let's suppose that Mexico talks Japan into declaring war on us as well (as was mentioned in the Telegram). This means Japan gets to go hog-wild in the Pacific and try to take the Phillippines. It also means the USA can't move any of the Pacific Fleet to the Atlantic to help out in the war against Germany.

What would the outcome be in this situation? I'm thinking Mexico gets go nuts for a few weeks. Probably get as far north as Phoenix and Alberquerque, then they start getting their backsides handed to them and in the end lose the Baja Penninsula and most of their northern states. Possibly some nasty repirations as well?

I think Japan would probably be able to invade the Phillippines, but what would happen after that? Given how nasty the war we had there against the natives was, what would it be like for Japan? Further, would they ever be able to menace Hawaii? I don't think they could.

Lastly, what happens with the European front? I'm thinking there the war goes on until 1919. The Germans probably still lose, cause I don't see any way they wind up winning. But perhaps what they're able to do is negotiate a peace that's less damaging to them than what happened in the real world?

Anyhow, just some stuff I've been tossing around. Opinions, ideas, comments?
 

Sergio Van Lukenstein

Rocano said:
someone made one about this a while ago. DC came on and called them a NOOB
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I believe it was a DBWI about what it would be like if Mexico hadn't accepted the Zimmermann proposal and fought the US. The answers were pretty much along the lines that Mexico was beaten badly and would be in better shape.

This WI makes it more interesting by adding the Japanese into the equation, though.

(Besides that, I've got nothing.)
 

WhatIsAUserName

In 1914, Japanese forces had, with British help, taken the German concession of Qingdao, and was on the Allied side; to achieve a Japanese turnabout and subsequent war with America would be extremely unlikely.

And I don't think that Mexico would be capable of a large-scale offensive, considering it was in pretty bad turmoil at this time.
 

WilyBadger

You don't think Japan might take advantage of the US stuck fighting a two-front war in order to gobble up some territory? I'd have thought they would, but I might be mistaken.
 

WilyBadger

Oh, and, yes, Mexico would be in bad shape. But would they be able to mount an offensive into the southwest while we were distracted? I figured their goal would be to take some land and then offer a peace treaty right away. Anything prolonged would be bad for them.
 

Saladan

WilyBadger said:
Oh, and, yes, Mexico would be in bad shape. But would they be able to mount an offensive into the southwest while we were distracted? I figured their goal would be to take some land and then offer a peace treaty right away. Anything prolonged would be bad for them.
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In the entire history of the US has it ever accepted a peace right after it has been attacked?
 

WilyBadger

Yeah, I never figured we'd take a deal like that, but our enemies might THINK we would. The end idea I pictured is that we basically pound on Mexico until they surrender and we get all the states that border us.
 
Fletch

Fletch

Remember technology wasnt as great then as it is now. I think you could possibly have seen a trench system develop in North America.(I dont doubt for a minute that over the piece the US would win though). What a horrid thought*.

*edit: the trench system across another continent, not the US winning!
 

WilyBadger

Yeah, in my mind I keep picturing Teddy Roosevelt pressuring Wilson to send him down to Mexico to lead the fight. I can't see him quite charging into battle at his age at that point, though maybe. I can certainly see him trying to general it up over there... Hmmm... "Over There"... the song would probably end up being called "Over Here". :)
 

burmafrd

Banned
Mexico's army at that time had all it could do to maintain control of the country. And any build up would be very obvious. So frankly this one is a non starter.
 

Tocomocho

Sergio Van Lukenstein said:
I believe it was a DBWI about what it would be like if Mexico hadn't accepted the Zimmermann proposal and fought the US. The answers were pretty much along the lines that Mexico was beaten badly and would be in better shape.

This WI makes it more interesting by adding the Japanese into the equation, though.

(Besides that, I've got nothing.)
Click to expand...

The reason people started to call noob to the noobs wasn't because they said that Mexico would be beaten, it was because the noobs started to type bullshit like "Eh, then the US would not expand to Tierra del Fuego nor have a nice territory in Antarctica".

And then it had the main error of all Zimmerman telegraph WIs: The Zimmerman telegraph didn't call Mexico to enter WWI in the first place. It proposed a Mexican-German alliance that would guarantee German support in the event of a Mexican attempt to reconquer Texas, Arizona and New Mexico, in the event of a future war that would take place years if not decades after WW1 ended (in the mind of the German government, after a CP victory, obviously).

That on paper. In reality it was more about luring the USA to keep its eyes in Mexico to make it not enter the Great War. It was obviously an stupid plan because in the end it convinced the USA to do the opposite thing.

To the OP, the only answer possible is that Mexico was in a chaotic state at the time fighting a multipolar civil war and entering a war against half of the world was beyond the point of crazyness. There is no way Mexico would be anything "interested" in doing that, even if you avoid completely the Mexican Revolution. And in the case of Germany, it couldn't even send reinforcements to her own colonies because of the British blockade, so everyone can imagine what they could do against North America.

And finally, Japan would not attack the USA because 1) it was at war with Germany and 2) that would mean war against then USA, Britain, France, Russia and China at the same time. In essence, harakiri.
 

ninebucks

Banned
Is it possible that one of the other factions in the Civil War could have decided to invade the USA, in attempt to ignite a new nationalist campaign, to unite the various factions against an external enemy?

They needn't be very successful, and the revolution could very well continue elsewhere without interruption, but it'd still end up as a Mexican invasion of the US.
 

CDurham

WilyBadger said:
Oh, and, yes, Mexico would be in bad shape. But would they be able to mount an offensive into the southwest while we were distracted? I figured their goal would be to take some land and then offer a peace treaty right away. Anything prolonged would be bad for them.
Click to expand...

wasn't Mexico in the middle of a Civil War at the time?
 
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