The year of delay

Paul MacQ

Donor
Yet before this is a Push by the Germany Military wanting a delay

I am needing ideas here for the start of WW2 happening a year later

Some points of Difference

I see oil is a popular topic again so wanting a few things

Italians and Oil discovery of a small amount just above economic viability maybe a Geological anomaly get a small oil deposit not as deep as the rest of the oil in Libya, Making them put allot of reserves into trying to find more.
Oil found Late 1938 and not getting results till early 40 at least. I want Italy wanting to hold Libya and seeing it in a new light

A reason to stop Japans war with China for a Year between Late 1939 and end of 1940

Other events leading up till 1940 will say the same. But a feeling of calm before the storm

Plus side for the Germans
Getting another year of sorting out the resources they now hold in Austria and Czechoslovakia
There will be a build up but there is greater Industrial resources available in the West. Britain and France can out build them.
Quality Hitler OTL saw the Long 50mm Anti Tank gun and several sources he wanted it in this Tanks as of August 1940 mentioned he was ignored, this is not war time not happening during war the Longer 50/L60 gets but in the Pzr III instead of the less powerful and less accurate 50mm/L42, Not a war winner but some of the little changes I want to put in.

Italians other than having another year to adopt the 7.35mm Cartridge there doctrine was shocking and not sure if a year is going to help their amour quality much, They will having some higher ratios of newer equipment.

Winter war ( Russia Finland ) still happening but also delayed a year Probably allot worse for the Fins. But going to add finding Chrome deposits in 1938 with German companies getting a share in the mine, and starting to make money, and more interest from the Germans keeping the Fins free.

For the allies
Another year to build up Numbers of Tanks and Aircraft quality and quantity
Also American weapons are coming of age ( maybe orders for M2A4 light tank getting to France for example P40 possible not just more P36's ??, Or maybe some 37mm Anti Tank to help make up for terrible shortage of Anti Tank guns for the French )
Armour I see the Valentine and more S35s getting to the battlefield in France.
Still without experience going to see no major Doctrine changes, Some but nothing major,
Air Forces is probably going to be the biggest change as The Imperial Flying schools gets to pick up speed with pilot numbers and the French get organized better for their De520s and Bloch 155s making up bigger numbers and getting the spares and Maintenance training of Ground crew sorted ( have seen some numbers saying only 29% of the French air force was air worthy mostly lacking spares )
For the Poles thinking the 100 promised M.S.406s get delivered but still do not see them holding out much better,

French have some good weapons getting to the Troops a greater Ratio of 7.5mm MAS36s and most powerful 47mm Anti Tank guns in the world ( only 1200 produced OTL there numbers are going to be massively increased ) Also more AA as a major need,
Most of all another year to organize,
Not sure about the adoption of the British 6 Pdr not sure how the timing works out as yet

But first I need some good reasons and help with a one year delay, from the Taking of last of Czechoslovakia till the invasion of Poland.

Also might be a Pacific War still thinking on that one, Build up being as it where maybe even the pig headed Japanese Head War mongers can get to see the writing on the wall.
 
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I think that the first thing you must find is a way for the germans to prevent their economy from crashing.
If they continue to rearm at 1939 rate for another year, without conquests (and without raw materials and help coming from the Soviet Union) they will face huge economic problems.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Thank you Kara

Ok looking at some numbers here

Germany
Government income had been 10 billion Reichsmarks in 1928. In 1939, it stood at 15 billion. However, government spending had increased from 12 billion Reichsmarks in 1928 to over 30 billion in 1939 - a difference of 15 billion Reichsmarks. From 1933 to 1939, the Nazi government always spent more than it earned so that by 1939, government debt stood at over 40 billion Resichsmarks.

If another year at this rate Debt would be 55 billion Resichsmarks. All else being equal.

Yes the economy was in the toilet at this Rate, but was going to push for 1 year, as I did not think, It could take much longer at this rate, You do not think it is financially possible ?
 
Thank you Kara
You're welcome!

Ok looking at some numbers here

Germany
Government income had been 10 billion Reichsmarks in 1928. In 1939, it stood at 15 billion. However, government spending had increased from 12 billion Reichsmarks in 1928 to over 30 billion in 1939 - a difference of 15 billion Reichsmarks. From 1933 to 1939, the Nazi government always spent more than it earned so that by 1939, government debt stood at over 40 billion Resichsmarks.

If another year at this rate Debt would be 55 billion Resichsmarks. All else being equal.

Yes the economy was in the toilet at this Rate, but was going to push for 1 year, as I did not think, It could take much longer at this rate, You do not think it is financially possible ?

Really I don't know, but Hjalmar Schacht was not convinced (and he knew the situation very well!). I'm sure that more experienced members of the forum will give you more facts on this.
 
What about if Poland agrees to cede the Danzig corridor but when Germany goes to take the rest of Poland (still no easy task) the Allies declare war.
 
Yes the economy was in the toilet at this Rate, but was going to push for 1 year, as I did not think, It could take much longer at this rate, You do not think it is financially possible ?

I believe that the leding text on the argument is still "The Wages of Destruction: The Making and the Breaking of the Nazi Economy" by Adam Tooze (I have to re-read it once of these days...)

As for delaying German declaration of war, what about Hitler falling ill? It could be just something quite debilitating, if you need him around or you could simply kill him off. Anyway the several nazist gerarcs would fight each other to restablish a pecking order, giving you your year of delay.

If you want a better Italy at war, you could have the expeditionary corp in Spain fail completely. This would prompt a severe requipment of the army and the substitution of the elder officers with youger ones. Needless to say, Mussolini would never enter war alone, he will always wait for the germans to "clear the way".

I'm afraid I don't know much about the second Sino-Japanese war. The only thing I could think about is a worser Khalkhin Gol

 
Really I don't know, but Hjalmar Schacht was not convinced (and he knew the situation very well!). I'm sure that more experienced members of the forum will give you more facts on this.
IIRC, the government had a WHOLE lot of bills/bonds/whatever due very soon that would have been VERY hard to roll over without 1) loot from the conquered countries, and 2) patriotic war feeling (citizens will buy bonds to support a war often when they wouldn't normally).
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Regarding the Italians the Idea I am thinking of is a possibility of exploiting oil. Just enough to getting them distracted in Black Gold Lust.

And possibly keeping them out another year after a start of a war. or not getting in at all. I am thinking they could better be used in the Axis as a Threat in being, as apposed to an actual Fighting force.

Tensions grow at the Italian slowly building up oil Production, and the worry this would go to the Germans, but would Britain want to be seen as the aggressor or want to fight the Italians if already strained against the Germans, Also better relations between Italy and Spain after a civil war the British, Might see the double Threat, even though Spain is in no real state to go to war, I can see 1-2 Italian Divisions in Spain as added threat purely there to help train the Poor Spanish and help rebuild the Country after it’s bloody war of course. Maybe these Italians actually being mostly engineers getting on the good side of Spain helping rebuild destroyed infrastructure The Protection of British lake might be enough to have them yelling at the Italians without forcing there hand into going to war.

Just enough oil getting out of Libya as mentioned before Oil in Libya is deep and hard to get to, I am just having them find a small amount of what was there in a shallower deposit. I would need to find a good geological reason for this. Also the possibilities of American help to the Italians as noted in other threads they are the experts at getting to Deep oil. Maybe some conflict of interest, not much but some.

Not sure if I am going to have the Italians do much better if they do get in a fight.

I do not think much could be done to help there Military in a year,
Just another year into the introduction of a new Rifle Cartridge I am still not sure if that is all that good although it was a better round, they now have more of a supply Problem and do they go for a Change back to the old round with just another year into the introduction of the 7.35mm round

Possibly another year of Tank Development Still the Allies are actually building better Tanks not just developing them,

Airforce
Italians would not have reason to believe the CR42 Bi planes that are so popular with pilots, Is all that bad

Sure they have 3 types of monoplane Fighter developed, and some interesting designs for Bombers I am not sure there would have been a push as yet for the German DB601 powered fighters without a war

Artillery was the strong arm of the Italians, and could see some of the newer weapons becoming a higher Proportion, yet lack of doctrine changes in its use is still gong to leave them with a major problem on how to deal with Heavy armour like the Matilda

Regarding the Italian Navy was thinking of the introduction of Radar if I can find a Good excuse for information exchange between Italians and Germans, yet this also has a problem, they would not get as good at use of radar as the Royal Navy and again you have to work out the best ways to use this system. Radar like many things new often works best for those that have the experience to take advantage of it. And can imagine Royal navy having better doctrine and smiling at the Italian Navy being giving away there positions to a navy that not only has more experience on using Radar, But also what to look for. Radar can be detected a long way before it can detect Targets if you know what to look for.

Big sticking point on my plans as yet is still the German Economy, Doing some more research on this.

How much older German Military equipment could Germans sell without, cutting there throats, one of the things like selling off Panzer 1’s ( who buy that ) and Making good on Orders of Skoda Tanks and other weapons as examples. Not sure how much effect this would have. There is a buying spree with lots of Nations Building up. Not sure if this is answer to some of the financial problems, even in a small way.

Poland I know was selling there New Bombers. Deliveries of these might now have a chance to happen. And also Dutch completing more of there Foreign Aircraft orders. Plus of course the Americans getting more involved in the Market, The biggest Market here seems to be the French. So not just the Germans starting to feel the financial costs of military build up.

Just one of many aircraft with orders not completed due to OTL start of the war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fokker_G.I

And one of my favourite What If aircraft actualy seeing Production if not in time for service
http://www.aviastar.org/air/france/bloch_mb-157.php
 
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For the Poles thinking the 100 promised M.S.406s get delivered but still do not see them holding out much better,
If whe have a full year delay, then I expect that more than the initial 100 will be ordered.

I wonder if a 7 month [after the spring Thaw/Rains], would be better for your scenario than a full year.

Not sure if 1938 isn't to late for the Oil, it will take several years for the Development.
You have to invite the Arab-American oil company in to do the Drilling [Americans had the needed deep Drilling Technology].
The British-Arab company would be busy with the new Saudi Fields.
However if the Americans are invited in, this will have a few butterflies with Italian American Relations.
?Enuff to keep Italy out of the War?:confused:
Italy turned to Germany, after GB/France/ US, dropped Italy due to Ethiopia. If relations with the US are Thawing, Mussolini may distance Himself a little from Hitler.
Also Italy only entered the War after France fell so Fast. If the Delay helps France resist OTL's debacle, Mussolini will be a lot more cautious.


It was the fall of France and the Japanese occupation of Indo China, that brought on the American embargo in 1941.
And it was the dependence on Lend Lease that caused the British and Dutch to go along with it.
Nether would be at work here.

If Pearl, [US Entry] is delayed several Months, then there is time to complete the Fortification of the Islands, and ship those extra planes and reinforcements to the Philippines.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
If whe have a full year delay, then I expect that more than the initial 100 will be ordered.
The Polish have the the PZL.50 Jastrząb in the works I believe the MS406 was meant to be a fill in until they get it into Production
Polish where very into Polish weapons systems when possible
DuQuense said:
I wonder if a 7 month [after the spring Thaw/Rains], would be better for your scenario than a full year.
Probably more likely yes , Main sticking point for 12 months seems the German economy, not sure they would wait a year for war
DuQuense said:
Not sure if 1938 isn't to late for the Oil, it will take several years for the Development.
You have to invite the Arab-American oil company in to do the Drilling [Americans had the needed deep Drilling Technology].
The British-Arab company would be busy with the new Saudi Fields.
However if the Americans are invited in, this will have a few butterflies with Italian American Relations.
?Enuff to keep Italy out of the War?:confused:

Other thing I was looking at here , Italian Emigrants with American Oil experience as another possible option
rather possible to have some skilled staff that might help out the Old Country with there experience, Maybe even some Experienced Italian American Wildcats, So maybe discovery 1936 and looking at production 39- 40 ??.

I was looking at getting the Italians more into developing what they have got making money before getting Greedy for new lands to take control of. for a while at least.

DuQuense said:
Italy turned to Germany, after GB/France/ US, dropped Italy due to Ethiopia. If relations with the US are Thawing, Mussolini may distance Himself a little from Hitler.
Also Italy only entered the War after France fell so Fast. If the Delay helps France resist OTL's debacle, Mussolini will be a lot more cautious.
Was looking at Italy being close to Germany, But think it is more useful to keep them out of the fight but still as a big threat in the South. At least early on, Possibly another year after start of war than they already took if they do get into the fight Early Mid 42 was an idea I was playing with

DuQuense said:
It was the fall of France and the Japanese occupation of Indo China, that brought on the American embargo in 1941.
And it was the dependence on Lend Lease that caused the British and Dutch to go along with it.
Nether would be at work here.
If Pearl, [US Entry] is delayed several Months, then there is time to complete the Fortification of the Islands, and ship those extra planes and reinforcements to the Philippines.
Thanks for Comments

The U.S Navy especially at this time was very visibly rearming, And was going to be all the harder to take down. Not sure if a possibly more visible rearming would stop the Japanese, Hind sight shows fighting the US was plan Dumb, The mentioned year Delay of fighting in China was to delay the Embargo and delay Japanese going early, The delay in the dependence of Lend Lease that caused the British and Dutch to go along with it might do the trick anyway Thank you DuQuense for the great input
 
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