The WWII in "Central Powers won WWI" World

[miketr]

Without more details as to how the war ended and what the post war world looks like I can only make general comments.

1) France with two defeats in two generations is going to fall into Germany's orbit. With some signs of independence but at the end of the day the leadership in Paris is going to attempt to find an accommodation with Berlin; unless France goes Communist.

2) Russia I expect is the best direction to look for some type of revanchist movement. Especially if the war ends later then you see Ukraine, Baltics, Poland and Finland have all been taken away. Perhaps central Asia and other stuff to Ottomans. Many of these areas had been Russian for some time even if not culturally so.

3) For Great Britain it will depend much on what Germany does. They will have to deal with Germany being master of Europe it depends on what they do outside of Europe. If Germany is distracted to by integrating their conquests and social change after the war to be a problem for some time then GB might not be a factor. But if Germany at some point starts to build up their fleet again and or plays games in Africa or elsewhere in the colonial field then we could see problems.

I really expect that Germany is going to be very busy for at least 20 years; unless the POD is very early on. Like S Plan works in France type change. Germany is going to have to try to integrate a European wide economic and political system together and deal with the possible break up of Austria-Hungary. This is going to take much of Germany's attention and energy. In the 1930's or more likely 1940's Germany will be in shape to look beyond Europe. Then it depends on what they do and what the flash points around the globe are.

Michael

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Actually I could see Germany trying really hard to become the World Hegemon after a successful WW1, drag themselves into dozens of conflicts around the globe, and stumble terribly when the Syndicalist Internationale finally attack (Yes, Kaiserreich fan)

 

[Mikestone8]

1) France with two defeats in two generations is going to fall into Germany's orbit. With some signs of independence but at the end of the day the leadership in Paris is going to attempt to find an accommodation with Berlin; unless France goes Communist.

It won't be allowed to go communist. The German army will intervene if need be. No way will they allow communist powers on both sides of them.

Otherwise agreed. After an ordeal like WW1 - in vain - it will be a very long time before anyone thinks of revanche.

3) For Great Britain it will depend much on what Germany does. They will have to deal with Germany being master of Europe it depends on what they do outside of Europe. If Germany is distracted to by integrating their conquests and social change after the war to be a problem for some time then GB might not be a factor. But if Germany at some point starts to build up their fleet again and or plays games in Africa or elsewhere in the colonial field then we could see problems.

They don't desparately need to build up their fleet. The main problem with it is not its size - if anything it's bigger than it needs to be - but its lack of bases on the Atlantic. If France (and probably Norway and/or Portugal) is drawn into the German orbit, then it has the bases it needs. Probably they'll concentrate on building more uboats.

 

[Max Sinister]

You'll have to specify your WW1, especially the alliances. Would one of OTL Allies (Britain? Italy? Russia? USA?) fight on Germany's side, or would the CPs have to defeat all of them?

And even if the CPs win, I have some doubt that the Ottoman empire and A-H will last forever.

 

[Mikestone8]

You'll have to specify your WW1, especially the alliances. Would one of OTL Allies (Britain? Italy? Russia? USA?) fight on Germany's side, or would the CPs have to defeat all of them?

I think the general assumption is that the US stays neutral. Russia may drop out a bit sooner..

And even if the CPs win, I have some doubt that the Ottoman empire and A-H will last forever.

They'll last as long as Germany wants. At some point she may get fed up with A/H and annex most of the "Austrian" half. If not, her support will enable it to suppress any revolt that it can't manage single-handed.

As for the OE, there's no particular reason for it to break up. Sure, it's an inefficient ethnic mish-mash, but so are many states in those parts. It can probably suppress revolts at least as well as the Arabs can make them.

 

[Rex Romanum]

I think the general assumption is that the US stays neutral. Russia may drop out a bit sooner..

Yeah, I think that can work well...

 

[Claudius]

I also really can't see Britain turning fascist, since any British defeat in World War I is likely to be along the lines of status quo ante while acknowledging German gains against France/Russia. That's not the sort of defeat that generates nationalist outrage which leads to fascism.

Also, given the trends within British Fascism in OTL, it would be more likely to return to Splendid Isolation from Europe and renewed focus on colonial affairs/overseas influence. IMO, fascist Britain is more likely to get into a war with the US over competing spheres of influence then it is to get into a conflict with anyone on the continent.

Fascism in either France or England pretty much depends on the economic conditions post-WW I. Italy was on the winning side and went Fascist and Germany on the losing side went Nazi, (although it could just as easily have gone Communist.) In a CP-victory world, The economies of all of the Great Powers will have a rough time because of the sheer economic damage done by the war. Unless we are talking about a "short war" with CP victory in 1916 or so. Absent an ATL Great Depression, I could see the rise of uber-traditionalist parties in France and England, and the surpressing of the Fascist and Hard Left parties in those countries, particularly if Russia is in a civil war.

 

[Max Sinister]

IOTL, France and Britain had problems too after WW1. Maybe not that many as Germany or Russia, but still. The Germans who wanted a victorious peace thought they could force the Allies to pay the German debt, but they can't force them to pay ridiculous amounts of money and expect there won't be any repercussions at all.

 

[The Admiral Hook]

What about the German Revolution? Even in a CP victory the length and brutality of the war would have opened the doors for revolutionary movements. Do you see any possibility that Germany goes socialist or even completely "Soviet-esque?"

If the Bolsheviks fail or cannot successfully organize their revolt somehow in Russia, might they be brought to Germany by the communists there?

 

[Max Sinister]

I had always imagined: If Germany actually had managed to win the war, the conservative/nationalist parties would achieve a great victory in the next election, and given the FPTP system, the Social Democrats would suffer from a split. In the long run, of course - that's another question.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Russia is more likely to go socialist especially if defeated later on - all those deaths, all that austerity, all for nothing. The monarchy would be in danger, and there would be a definite feeling that the aristocrats have had their day, screwed the country over and should now pay!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Bizarre... When I typed this I was writing about BRITAIN... Why did I write Russia? Did I write Russia or has it slipped in froim an ATL?

I wondered why nobody cared about what I said!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Sift Green]

Question: If the UK goes fascist, what do the Dominions do? It wouldn't be like the UK going communist, they should be able to keep control of the army and therefore, most of the colonies, but Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are different, right?

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Question: If the UK goes fascist, what do the Dominions do? It wouldn't be like the UK going communist, they should be able to keep control of the army and therefore, most of the colonies, but Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are different, right?

Well the dominions were independent. The only connection they really had to Britain was a shared Queen and a place in the Commonwealth, as well as various trade agreements.

So the dominions, in the event of a harsh authoritarian Britain, are likely to join the US's camp. Unless they themselves get some kind of fascistic government (you can count Canada out of this one, with the US directly south of its border) and initiate some sort of 'Anchluss' with Britain, then I doubt there's going to be much interaction there.

I can imagine a militant/authoritarian Britain snuggling up to Germany. The Germans weren't exactly liberal.

 

[Bulls Run]

Just skimming this over my lunch break so hope this hasn't been covered, but does Italy still go Fascist in a CP victory scenario? They're an interesting case of being on the winning side of WW1 OTL and still going fascist. There's more to fascism than just losing the war. Could other CP winners still go fascist?

 

[Mikestone8]

Just skimming this over my lunch break so hope this hasn't been covered, but does Italy still go Fascist in a CP victory scenario? They're an interesting case of being on the winning side of WW1 OTL and still going fascist. There's more to fascism than just losing the war. Could other CP winners still go fascist?

It's perfectly possible. I wouldn't say democracy was deeply rooted in any of them. Of course a lot depends on how you define "Fascist". Frex, Was Kemal Ataturk one?

More generally, by the mid 1930s dictatorship (whether you call it "Fascism" or not) was virtually the norm on the European continent. Of all the various new states which emerged from WW1, only Finland, Czechoslovakia and Eire stayed Democratic. Apart from them, Democratic institutions were limited to some (not all) of the countries which already had them in 1914 - GB, France, Switzerland, The Low Countries, and Scandinavia. Quite likely the victorious CPs would have folowed that trend.

 

[nien nunb]

I think it should be pointed out that we're missing a key factor in WWII in OTL: The mind-boggling stupidity of the victorious Allied Powers in allowing the most powerful country in Europe to cast off all the consequences of defeat, defy the Treaty of Versailles and re-arm.

Why do I bring this up? Because I can't imagine a victorious Imperial Germany having nearly the same poor judgment to draw up a "winner's peace" and then through guilt and a spirit of quasi-pacifism allow the defeated Allied Powers to re-arm.


Basically what I'm saying is that I don't think the scenario can just be reversed for Germany to play the role of the weak Western Democracies in the 1930s. Imperial Germany would have made sure the Allies were defeated, stripped of significant chunks of territories, disarmed and that they stayed that way for the foreseeable future.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

Well the dominions were independent. The only connection they really had to Britain was a shared Queen and a place in the Commonwealth, as well as various trade agreements.

So the dominions, in the event of a harsh authoritarian Britain, are likely to join the US's camp. Unless they themselves get some kind of fascistic government (you can count Canada out of this one, with the US directly south of its border) and initiate some sort of 'Anchluss' with Britain, then I doubt there's going to be much interaction there.

If the dominions start drifting away from Britain and into the US sphere, that's not going to go over well at all with an authoritarian Britain. Combine that with the fact that an authoritarian Britain would almost certainly try to throw its weight around in colonial and trade affairs, and a US/British war is looking more and more likely...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I think a lot here depends on how Russia turns out -- I imagine they'll undergo something similar to a February Revolution without an October Revolution. If so, how would the government of Russia evolve? Would it be like Germany OTL, experimenting with a Republic that collapses into fascism?

 

[Bulls Run]

It's perfectly possible. I wouldn't say democracy was deeply rooted in any of them. Of course a lot depends on how you define "Fascist". Frex, Was Kemal Ataturk one?

More generally, by the mid 1930s dictatorship (whether you call it "Fascism" or not) was virtually the norm on the European continent. Of all the various new states which emerged from WW1, only Finland, Czechoslovakia and Eire stayed Democratic. Apart from them, Democratic institutions were limited to some (not all) of the countries which already had them in 1914 - GB, France, Switzerland, The Low Countries, and Scandinavia. Quite likely the victorious CPs would have folowed that trend.

Wouldn't be ironic if Germany wins the Great War and we still get Hitler and WW2? Shudder!

 

[Hans Leip]

Nothing as bad as Hitler I think.

How about this match up:

Germany-Mitteleuropa/USA/UK vs

Russia/Japan