The WWII in "Central Powers won WWI" World

[Rex Romanum]

So how would the alternate WWII be played up in a world where Central Powers won the WWI?
Would Germany (not a Nazi one, certainly), Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire become major players in this alternate WWII?
And I remember reading somewhere that if Central Powers won the WWI, then it would be France, Russia, or even Britain that goes Fascist/Nazist, and started this alternate WWII. Would it possible?

 

[CurlyGangster]

So how would the alternate WWII be played up in a world where Central Powers won the WWI?
Would Germany (not a Nazi one, certainly), Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire become major players in this alternate WWII?
And I remember reading somewhere that if Central Powers won the WWI, then it would be France, Russia, or even Britain that goes Fascist/Nazist, and started this alternate WWII. Would it possible?

You ever heard of TL-191?

Anyway, I have always thought that a revanchist Entente would crush Germany and Austria Hungary in an Alternate WW2. That is unless the US intervened on the side of the Central Powers.

 

[Kelenas]

Russia, and perhaps Britain, might seek another round vs. the CP, but I'm not so sure about the cliché of France going fascist and taking part in another war against Germany. If Germany already trounced them twice in less than half a century, even with all the allies (Russia, Britain) they had the second time around, then why risk it a third time?

- Kelenas

 

[nien nunb]

I agree with the previous poster. Remember, France was already overcome by defeatism in its political and military leaders in OTL after having WON WWI. I'd imagine they'd be even further in that defeatist direction if they'd actually lost it even with all their Allies. I can't see them gambling on it a third time so quickly.


And if this Central Powers victory comes before 1917, that means no U.S. involvement in an alliance against Germany for WWII.

So... no France involved, no U.S. involved, where's this anti-Central Powers alliance going to come from?

 

[Mikestone8]

I agree with the previous poster. Remember, France was already overcome by defeatism in its political and military leaders in OTL after having WON WWI. I'd imagine they'd be even further in that defeatist direction if they'd actually lost it even with all their Allies. I can't see them gambling on it a third time so quickly.


And if this Central Powers victory comes before 1917, that means no U.S. involvement in an alliance against Germany for WWII.

So... no France involved, no U.S. involved, where's this anti-Central Powers alliance going to come from?

Agreed - and FTM what's Britain's situation going to be?

Remember, a CP victory (or even a stalemate) means that Germany is free to go on building u-boats. If you look at what an ordeal 1917 was for Britain, with around 130 German subs to deal with, how will it go in a second war where Germany starts with 300 or even more?

 

[Susano]

What inentive would GB have to go revanchist? WW1 Germany, nearly no matter the scenario, wont be in any position to impose many demands on GB. So for the Britons, it will have been just a further clash on the continent, and in that game, hey, you win some and you lose some...

 

[Chengar Qordath]

I also really can't see Britain turning fascist, since any British defeat in World War I is likely to be along the lines of status quo ante while acknowledging German gains against France/Russia. That's not the sort of defeat that generates nationalist outrage which leads to fascism.

Also, given the trends within British Fascism in OTL, it would be more likely to return to Splendid Isolation from Europe and renewed focus on colonial affairs/overseas influence. IMO, fascist Britain is more likely to get into a war with the US over competing spheres of influence then it is to get into a conflict with anyone on the continent.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

I really think that it is worth examining exactly what circumstances under which the war will be ending. Remember that two of the biggest players in OTL WWII had their regimes come into power as a direct result of their national experiences during WWI.

The interbellum years are going to be a huge factor, has the Bolshevik revolution been butterflied away? or merely defeated? Was there a global depression like OTL? was it worse or better than OTL? if so is it possible that Germany breaks up to pre unification status? does the spanish civil war happen? Does the Spanish flu pandemic happen as per OTL? does it disproportionately affect some nations more than others?

It's very possible to have a WWII like what the OP is asking for with a CP victory. You must remember that the rematch isn't going to happen the day after the first war ends, it's going to be decades later, which is more than enough time to cause some drastic political changes in Europe.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Well said, dan.

So how would the alternate WWII be played up in a world where Central Powers won the WWI?

There needn't ever be a second world war. It's not impossible, but nor is it inevitable.

Would Germany (not a Nazi one, certainly), Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire become major players in this alternate WWII?

One struggles to imagine Germany not being involved, but the other two might not still be about. Austria-Hungary is going to be increasingly a German dependency and may be formally wound up. The Ottomans have better prospects but the time of the CP victory changes the Ottoman fate dramatically.

Again, the survival of the two empires could go either way.

And I remember reading somewhere that if Central Powers won the WWI, then it would be France, Russia, or even Britain that goes Fascist/Nazist, and started this alternate WWII. Would it possible?

A fascist Russia is one fairly likely scenario and a 'fascist' (really reactionary, authoritarian, plutocratic) Britain not by any means impossible. I can see France go rather fascistic, Faeelin-style, but as others point out I can't really see France starting another war whatever government is in power. And why should fascist France be anti-German? It wasn't IOTL.

And if this Central Powers victory comes before 1917, that means no U.S. involvement in an alliance against Germany for WWII.

Dubious. WW1 itself played a role in isolationism ("We made the world safe for democracy and they set fire to it instead"), and imperial Germany might have imperial interests in the western hemisphere and the Pacific. The ambitions of the the silent dictatorship were never exactly modest.

Remember, a CP victory (or even a stalemate) means that Germany is free to go on building u-boats. If you look at what an ordeal 1917 was for Britain, with around 130 German subs to deal with, how will it go in a second war where Germany starts with 300 or even more?

Well, if France is neutral it's going to be a duckshoot, since they can only operate in the western approaches and the moment *RAf Coastal has a decenta nti-sub capability they're toast - unless the war starts only after they develop long-range boats.

Really, the technology and strategic situation was so different in two wars that one can hardly draw a comparison - the only sure thing is that we had learned the few unchanging lessons about convoys, rationing, and maximising food production.

Anyway, who says we have to be against Germany?

What inentive would GB have to go revanchist? WW1 Germany, nearly no matter the scenario, wont be in any position to impose many demands on GB. So for the Britons, it will have been just a further clash on the continent, and in that game, hey, you win some and you lose some...

Not revanchist, certainly, but authoritarian and nasty is perfectly possible. Look at Ireland, India, and Iraq in the 1920s when we'd won. A WW1 which ends the right way could trap us in a bloody Irish quagmire and lead to harsh crackdowns throughout the empire. Come the *General Strike, the technique is applied at home. Aroma of Ed Thomas, and a disturbing whiff of OTl trends.

I also really can't see Britain turning fascist, since any British defeat in World War I is likely to be along the lines of status quo ante while acknowledging German gains against France/Russia. That's not the sort of defeat that generates nationalist outrage which leads to fascism.

I really don't see the connection between defeat and fascism or, more generally, early 20th century ideological authoritarianism (because I don't know quite what to call Japan). Italy won, Japan won, Romania won, Spain wasn't involved.

Also, given the trends within British Fascism in OTL, it would be more likely to return to Splendid Isolation from Europe and renewed focus on colonial affairs/overseas influence. IMO, fascist Britain is more likely to get into a war with the US over competing spheres of influence then it is to get into a conflict with anyone on the continent.

Now this I sort-of agree with. An alternate WW2 I like to toy with is basically a decaying British Empire that is partially a German creature being bailed out by its German and Japanese allies against the Sino-Russian-American alliance.

 

[Mikestone8]

Again, the survival of the two empires could go either way.



A fascist Russia is one fairly likely scenario and a 'fascist' (really reactionary, authoritarian, plutocratic) Britain not by any means impossible. I can see France go rather fascistic, Faeelin-style, but as others point out I can't really see France starting another war whatever government is in power. And why should fascist France be anti-German? It wasn't IOTL.

Agreed. A defeated France may well be a German satellite.

Well, if France is neutral it's going to be a duckshoot, since they can only operate in the western approaches and the moment *RAf Coastal has a decenta nti-sub capability they're toast - unless the war starts only after they develop long-range boats.

I wouldn't assume French neutrality. France might be looking for a few British colonies as compensation for whatever she lost to Germany in the first war. And the Germans might well offer this in return for the use of French ports in a naval war.

Anyway, who says we have to be against Germany?

It's entirely possible we wouldn't be - especially if the events suggested above give Germany a chokehold on our food and oil imports.[/QUOTE]

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

Well said, dan.

Thanks IBC

One struggles to imagine Germany not being involved, but the other two might not still be about. Austria-Hungary is going to be increasingly a German dependency and may be formally wound up. The Ottomans have better prospects but the time of the CP victory changes the Ottoman fate dramatically.

Again, the survival of the two empires could go either way.

I was actually thinking that the Ottomans were more likely to fall apart. Depending upon British support for the Arab revolt, the Ottoman empire may crumble in a mess of internal rebellion following the war.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Agreed. A defeated France may well be a German satellite.

I wouldn't assume French neutrality. France might be looking for a few British colonies as compensation for whatever she last to Germany in the first war. And the Germans might well offer this in return for the use of French ports in a naval war.

Good point, there.

I was actually thinking that the Ottomans were more likely to fall apart. Depending upon British support for the Arab revolt, the Ottoman empire may crumble in a mess of internal rebellion following the war.

The Arab Revolt never really animated the sedentary mass of Ottoman Arabs - not to say that Ottoman society wouldn't be affected in a big way by national and other things over the next decades.

 

[Mikestone8]

I was actually thinking that the Ottomans were more likely to fall apart. Depending upon British support for the Arab revolt, the Ottoman empire may crumble in a mess of internal rebellion following the war.

Why?

OTL, the only revolt during WW1 was in the Hejaz, and Istr reading a few years ago that it's leaders were in correspondence with Constantinople, with a view to reverting to the Turkish side should the tide turn, almost to the end of the war.

After all, there are quite a few ethnic hotch-potches in that part of the world - Abyssinia, Iraq, Afghanistan - yet they seemed to hang together. And Iirc you have to go back to the Serbian revolt of 1804 to find a case of any territory breaking loose from the OE without the latter first being defeated in war with a great power.

 

[Rex Romanum]

You ever heard of TL-191?

Yes, but I prefer a later PODs...German victory in First Battle of the Marne, US never entered the war, or a successful Spring Offensive, maybe...?

 

[Mr Qwerty]

Yes, but I prefer a later PODs...German victory in First Battle of the Marne, US never entered the war, or a successful Spring Offensive, maybe...?

Yeah, we all hate the CSA anyway, while there's nothing particularly wrong with the Kaiserreich. Plus that means 50 years of butterflies.

 

[Faeelin]

For some reason, the experience of the Whites in the Russian Civil War doesn't make me think they are likely to succeed.

I also agree that the US would be more interventionist, and I think its "isolationism" in OTL is greatly underrated. Witness American involvement in reparations and the efforts to get the French out of the Ruhr, American opposition to Japan's 15 points, loans to the Entente, etc.

(I still like the scenario of a Green *Russia allied with a progressive USA joining forces to smackdown the evlolz.)

 

[I Blame Communism]

For some reason, the experience of the Whites in the Russian Civil War doesn't make me think they are likely to succeed.

I agree (though Wolfpaw argues the other case strongly), but since we haven't specified any PoD I think you can get a *White Russia other ways. If the war ends in early '16, there's a *February Revolution helped along by the officer classes who're convinced they were Stabbed In The Back whilst advancing in Galicia and Anatolia, I could see fascism coming about the same way it did in Germany of Italy: politically, through the machinations of a politicised army, the miscalculations of the old conservatives, strategic donations from plutocrats afraid of socialism, and charismatic plays on discontent.

Of course it's no secret that I, too, would prefer the Federal Socialist Republic of Russia.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Arab Revolt never really animated the sedentary mass of Ottoman Arabs - not to say that Ottoman society wouldn't be affected in a big way by national and other things over the next decades.

And the rebels would need to be looking over their shoulders at King Ibn Saud. If he joins the winning side before they do, they could find themselves a nut between the nutcrackers.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Kaiserreich: legacy of the Weltkrieg!! The Syndicalist Internationale will certainly crush the Imperialist Mittelseuropa!!!

 

[Grey Wolf]

Russia is more likely to go socialist especially if defeated later on - all those deaths, all that austerity, all for nothing. The monarchy would be in danger, and there would be a definite feeling that the aristocrats have had their day, screwed the country over and should now pay!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf