The Worst American Civil War Alternate History Cliche

[EnglishCanuck]

to be fair the Confederacy was forced to more fully embrace a total war economy and full conscription considerably earlier so from a Southern point of view (and Shelby Foote is most definitely that) it sure seems like the Union didn't have to work nearly as hard as the South did

Completely true. I just dislike the implications of the argument that had the South done better in say, 1862 or 1863, there was some vast, untapped reserve of manpower or resources and political will waiting to spring into action.

It's a bit of historiography I find a tad wearisome in these discussions. Conversely, it is hard to sort fact from fiction in many post-war accounts as the South went on to rewrite the whole history of the war in the aftermath.

 

[Mitro]

Thanks to everyone who commented so far. I am actually working on a video for ACW AH cliches and this is giving me a lot to work with.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I'd argue the North could plausibly make mistakes which would lead to the South winning - my personal favourite is "they attack after Malvern Hill" because that's a tricky one to notice.

I fell for the Malvern Hill trap (to be fair, I thought Lee's army lost cohesion).

But... I really think it would take multiple PODs to make the South win without British help. OK, let's say McClellan falls for the trap (as after the war General Sherman insisted he should have done). OK, we lose the entire army of the Potomac, or maybe the cavalry just abandons the army, splits into groups of 30, and flees (Lee can't catch them all). OK, so we're going to need a few draft slips and it will probably take 3 years to rebuild it to full strength. So the Civil War ends in 1868.

Unless we have another POD to make the South win some important battle after Malvern Hill. But no single POD outside foreign intervention will make the South win, the odds are just that bad.

 

[CH33K1 N4ND0Z]

Anyone else think about the South immediately invading Mexico if they win, while Mexico is helped by France after the Confederacy just lost hundreds of thousands of good young men to fight in their armies to the Yankee menace? And this would also result in Dixiestan losing one of its most major supporters in Europe next to the British, Napoleon III?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Anyone else think about the South immediately invading Mexico if they win, while Mexico is helped by France after the Confederacy just lost hundreds of thousands of good young men to fight in their armies to the Yankee menace? And this would also result in Dixiestan losing one of its most major supports in Europe next to the British, Napoleon III?

I didn't know it wa popular enough to be a cliché. I only saw it on one fake video documentary of a CSA wank... with real advertisements.

 

[Saphroneth]

But... I really think it would take multiple PODs to make the South win without British help. OK, let's say McClellan falls for the trap (as after the war General Sherman insisted he should have done). OK, we lose the entire army of the Potomac, or maybe the cavalry just abandons the army, splits into groups of 30, and flees (Lee can't catch them all). OK, so we're going to need a few draft slips and it will probably take 3 years to rebuild it to full strength. So the Civil War ends in 1868.

Well, think about the operational situation. Firstly, there's nowhere for the cavalry to go except Fort Monroe (which is many miles away).

With the Army of the Potomac gone, essentially the entire Army of Northern Virginia (which is actually slightly larger than the AotP at this time in effectives terms) is free to head north and attack against Washington.

Now, you may be aware of the abject defeat that was Second Bull Run? Imagine it without the 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th corps of the Army of the Potomac present - and without the rest of the AotP rapidly returning to Washington for rearguard action. The Union finds itself having to rush reinforcements in to Washington as fast as possible, needing to replace about 25% of their entire army (and that mostly the experienced part) and having to pretty much send nearly half the force of the Department of the Mississippi eastwards in order to make up the numbers - which in turn means the Western Theatre is unable to make an effective offensive.
It's nearly as bad in terms of non-available manpower as a war with Britain, for the Union.

At the same time, Lee's army has just acquired a large quantity of reasonably good rifles and a large number of good artillery pieces, exactly what would be needed to actually make an attempt at the Washington defences.


It's not valid at all to just assume the Confederacy will wait for the Union to rebuild their field army - the CSA has no reason at all to wait, especially as it has just assembled the largest army it would ever field in OTL.

 

[Gaius Julius Magnus]

Another one is probably too much focus on the events of the Eastern Theater in comparison to other theaters where the war was being fought.

 

[NolanFoster]

That slavery ends in the confederacy sometime by 1890.

 

[Lord Khuzdul]

Worst cliché? "Succeed". South didn't succeed. They seceded. Get your language correct people! I'm not even a native speaker!

 

[Kirook]

I have seen precisely one TL with a Civil War POD on this site where the Union succeeds more than OTL instead of less (MacGregor's excellent timeline "The Union Forever"). Almost all other Civil War TLs are CSA victories, usually involving a Trent War.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Well, think about the operational situation. Firstly, there's nowhere for the cavalry to go except Fort Monroe (which is many miles away).

With the Army of the Potomac gone, essentially the entire Army of Northern Virginia (which is actually slightly larger than the AotP at this time in effectives terms) is free to head north and attack against Washington.

Now, you may be aware of the abject defeat that was Second Bull Run? Imagine it without the 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th corps of the Army of the Potomac present - and without the rest of the AotP rapidly returning to Washington for rearguard action. The Union finds itself having to rush reinforcements in to Washington as fast as possible, needing to replace about 25% of their entire army (and that mostly the experienced part) and having to pretty much send nearly half the force of the Department of the Mississippi eastwards in order to make up the numbers - which in turn means the Western Theatre is unable to make an effective offensive.
It's nearly as bad in terms of non-available manpower as a war with Britain, for the Union.

At the same time, Lee's army has just acquired a large quantity of reasonably good rifles and a large number of good artillery pieces, exactly what would be needed to actually make an attempt at the Washington defences.


It's not valid at all to just assume the Confederacy will wait for the Union to rebuild their field army - the CSA has no reason at all to wait, especially as it has just assembled the largest army it would ever field in OTL.

I'd expect the cavalry to be able to get to Fort Monroe or DC. They can loot their way for food and obviously don't need more than a few shots of ammunition if they're getting AWAY from the fight.

Lee need to break through Washington DC's huge defenses after it became one of the most durable places on the planet. He would have had to reduce three separate lines of fortifications, as penetrating the outer ring doesn't do much.

If McClellan followed Sherman's post war advice ad fell into that trap, he's going to get fired unless the 5th corps fails to make their getaway. It's his favorite unit and if he has to chose between dying with them or fleeing without them, he's going down. Also, I seriously doubt Lee is getting McClellan's siege train. He's going to know he's going down at least an hour before the fateful moment and the guns WILL be spiked. They probably will send their word out to Harpers Fairy that nothing stands between Lee and them. Anything larger than a six pounder will be spiked and the lighter guns will be dragged to someplace they can use them.

The North has more manpower and industry on their side even AFTER losing all that. Time is on their side and all they have to do is lick their wounds. So bring in maybe 3,000 extra guys into DC, and bring every piece of non perishable food and hunker down. Lee isn't getting through that. In fact, if he won at Antietam, he didn't think he'd be able to crack DC even if he traded his muskets for rifles (the south was short on good weapons) and I think he was right. So what can he do? Raid Maryland and drive them into the North camp? Sack Baltimore? I don't see him being able to stop the North from licking their wounds and rebuilding unless they take Washington DC.

As I said, except for foreign intervention, the South is simply too outmatched. The Malvern Hill trap was a deadly one, but nothing that time can't fix for the North and I don't think taking Washington DC can be done.

 

[TRH]

Thanks to everyone who commented so far. I am actually working on a video for ACW AH cliches and this is giving me a lot to work with.

I have seen precisely one TL with a Civil War POD on this site where the Union succeeds more than OTL instead of less (MacGregor's excellent timeline "The Union Forever"). Almost all other Civil War TLs are CSA victories, usually involving a Trent War.

Kirook's got it right about this, probably the most elemental Civil War cliche. In almost any AH treatment of the war, the South will do better, when honestly, I think they were probably farther on the lucky end of the probability curve IOTL. So much timidity among Union leadership early on it's insane.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I have seen precisely one TL with a Civil War POD on this site where the Union succeeds more than OTL instead of less (MacGregor's excellent timeline "The Union Forever"). Almost all other Civil War TLs are CSA victories, usually involving a Trent War.

What are you talking about? On this very site, a good 1/8 of the PODs are Northern Victories. My favorite is Fighting Joe Hooker listening to Dan Sickles and getting the South to attack an impenetrable position. For some reason, these threads usually have only the author posting them, but these threads exist. Did you set your filter to "replies > 3"???

 

[frustrated progressive]

What are you talking about? On this very site, a good 1/8 of the PODs are Northern Victories. My favorite is Fighting Joe Hooker listening to Dan Sickles and getting the South to attack an impenetrable position. For some reason, these threads usually have only the author posting them, but these threads exist. Did you set your filter to "replies > 3"???

Maybe he didn't include them in his classification as full TLs.

 

[Kirook]

Maybe he didn't include them in his classification as full TLs.

Yeah, there may be some WIs about it that I haven't seen (I don't go into Before 1900 all that much, as I don't have enough history knowledge to understand most of the PODs here. Still, in the broader world of alternate history, Southern victories are far more popular (see: TL-191, Guns of the South, etc).

 

[Saphroneth]

I'd expect the cavalry to be able to get to Fort Monroe or DC. They can loot their way for food and obviously don't need more than a few shots of ammunition if they're getting AWAY from the fight.

It's a very long way to DC (105 miles) and the route goes through the Army of Northern Virginia. Fort Monroe is closer (only 60 miles) but not close.

Lee need to break through Washington DC's huge defenses after it became one of the most durable places on the planet. He would have had to reduce three separate lines of fortifications, as penetrating the outer ring doesn't do much.

I'm not so sure - the defences had some major holes in them. They were also not high quality at all - the problem is that the fort ring was too big. There were several hundred guns, yes, but on a frontage of several dozen miles (Sevastopol was over ten times denser) and the forts were also very poor quality - one British officer demonstrated that you could ride a cavalry horse up into one with ease.
They're serviceable, but if the Army of Northern Virginia gets to actually stay there and try for a few days it doesn't take too much of a stretch for them to overcome one fort and thus open the ring.

If McClellan followed Sherman's post war advice ad fell into that trap, he's going to get fired unless the 5th corps fails to make their getaway. It's his favorite unit and if he has to chose between dying with them or fleeing without them, he's going down. Also, I seriously doubt Lee is getting McClellan's siege train. He's going to know he's going down at least an hour before the fateful moment and the guns WILL be spiked. They probably will send their word out to Harpers Fairy that nothing stands between Lee and them. Anything larger than a six pounder will be spiked and the lighter guns will be dragged to someplace they can use them.

The point about the Malvern trap is that the entire Union army would be surrounded and completely out of food and ammunition - that's pretty much how they were at Malvern Hill. In any case, guns got captured frequently - and you can repair a spiked gun, it's just not something you can do in a few minutes on a battlefield.

How do you imagine McClellan getting word to Harpers Ferry? It's a hundred and forty miles away - I don't think you really have a sense of the distances involved here.

The North has more manpower and industry on their side even AFTER losing all that. Time is on their side and all they have to do is lick their wounds. So bring in maybe 3,000 extra guys into DC, and bring every piece of non perishable food and hunker down. Lee isn't getting through that.

Three thousand extra people is a drop in the bloody bucket.

So what can he do? Raid Maryland and drive them into the North camp? Sack Baltimore? I don't see him being able to stop the North from licking their wounds and rebuilding unless they take Washington DC.

He can march on Baltimore and liberate it (from their PoV) and then DC is completely cut off by rail. A DC cut off by rail is a rather easy target.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

Anyone else think about the South immediately invading Mexico if they win, while Mexico is helped by France after the Confederacy just lost hundreds of thousands of good young men to fight in their armies to the Yankee menace? And this would also result in Dixiestan losing one of its most major supporters in Europe next to the British, Napoleon III?

My favorite scenario in that case is Mexico getting it's shit together and crush the CSA, pulling a "Reconquista" of Texas.

If the CSA can have it's implausible scenario, so can we Latin Americans, damn it!

 

[Saphroneth]

Yeah, there may be some WIs about it that I haven't seen (I don't go into Before 1900 all that much, as I don't have enough history knowledge to understand most of the PODs here. Still, in the broader world of alternate history, Southern victories are far more popular (see: TL-191, Guns of the South, etc).

That's probably just because it's a change. "different outcome" is more interesting than "same outcome but faster".

 

[StephenColbert27]

People have already said it, but any scenario where the South wins the war and then abolishes slavery with no difficulty. The foundation of the South's economic and social systems was the institution of slavery. The South seceded from the Union in the first place because it was convinced that staying in the Union meant the eventual destruction of slavery. They wrote it into their constitution that it is the duty of the Rebel government to protect slavery and thus people's property in all states and territories of the new nation. They slaughtered African American soldiers and their white officers after their surrender on multiple occasions to show their contempt and hatred for the same. They (including "Slavery is wrong but I shan't ever do anything to stop it" Lee) kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of free African Americans during incursions of the North to bring back South. The idea of the South ever ending slavery within fifty years of the Civil is utter bullshit. To suggest otherwise shows a clear lack of understanding of how important it was to Southern society.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

The point about the Malvern trap is that the entire Union army would be surrounded and completely out of food and ammunition - that's pretty much how they were at Malvern Hill. In any case, guns got captured frequently - and you can repair a spiked gun, it's just not something you can do in a few minutes on a battlefield.

If McClellan fell into the trap and advanced after Malvern Hill, basically his army has no way to get food or ammo. Their only choice is to rush straight into the teeth of Lee's preparations or starve. The 5th corps I guess will probably be mauled unless a cavalry unit pulls of a Battle of Balaclava Charge of the Heavy Brigade where the Brigade charged forced into retreat a force triple its size... uphill... while getting fired upon by 3 volleys on a flank by an enemy batter and a field cannon in front of them. Ok, probably not going to happen. Ideally for Lee, it would be a Total Party Kill, bust most likely smaller cav units will be able to slip through. Not all of it, so I expect maybe about 1/30 of their total manpower to get away.

Wait, guns can be used after spiking? Why do cavalry even bother to spike guns when they overrun artillery? For that matter, when an army captures guns that they decide to not drag because they have enough, why did they usually spike them?

How do you imagine McClellan getting word to Harpers Ferry? It's a hundred and forty miles away - I don't think you really have a sense of the distances involved here.

Anyone getting away from that battle is probably on a horse. I bet he can get there in a third of the time a Lee after a few days. I know it's not a one day trip.

He can march on Baltimore and liberate it (from their PoV) and then DC is completely cut off by rail. A DC cut off by rail is a rather easy target.

I knew after 2nd Bull run, someone said they could fire their cannons and musket balls all day for 4 months. Well, when under siege firing ALL day is moronic, so it would last longer than that. They didn't have too many 12 pound cannonballs, but they had heavier and lighter ones.

The question is, can they stock up on food before they are cut off by rail? I thought they had all the time in the world, but now that you mention it, once DC is cut off by rail they aren't getting more food.