The World After White Victory in Russian Civil War

Deleted member 1487

As a minor point of history, Hitler would have stayed with the Communists in Germany without a Soviet Union. OTL he ditched the party when he discovered their were run from Russia; here that won't be the issue and he might well become the darling of the KPD.

In the US the fear of communism would recede eventually and that means the Socialism would then have a greater presence in the political scene. Stalin, though providing somewhat of an example for Socialists across the world, providing a successful ideological example for FDR. Without this things in the US if anything will be more conservative in the 1930's and 40's. Later on when Fascism is discredited the 1950's would have an interesting swing toward Socialism methinks. Today the US would have a very different political scene without the ideological enemy of Communism to define themselves against for generations.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
As a minor point of history, Hitler would have stayed with the Communists in Germany without a Soviet Union. OTL he ditched the party when he discovered their were run from Russia; here that won't be the issue and he might well become the darling of the KPD.
Hitler was not a member of the KPD nor did he every harbor anything but antipathy towards Marxists of all stripes, especially after the end of WWI as he saw them as a major reason for Germany's defeat (Dolchstosslegende and all that). Hitler infiltrated the Communist Party as a spy for the German military; he never agreed/sympathized/believed in them.
Stalin, though providing somewhat of an example for Socialists across the world, providing a successful ideological example for FDR.
Are you saying FDR modeled himself on Stalin?
Later on when Fascism is discredited the 1950's
How and why is fascism discredited? Without WWII, there's no reason to think that fascism would just fall apart by itself in the 1950s, especially given the massive horde of butterflies that come out of a White victory.
 

Spengler

Banned
As a minor point of history, Hitler would have stayed with the Communists in Germany without a Soviet Union. OTL he ditched the party when he discovered their were run from Russia; here that won't be the issue and he might well become the darling of the KPD.

In the US the fear of communism would recede eventually and that means the Socialism would then have a greater presence in the political scene. Stalin, though providing somewhat of an example for Socialists across the world, providing a successful ideological example for FDR. Without this things in the US if anything will be more conservative in the 1930's and 40's. Later on when Fascism is discredited the 1950's would have an interesting swing toward Socialism methinks. Today the US would have a very different political scene without the ideological enemy of Communism to define themselves against for generations.
Umm correct me if I'm wrong but I'm preety sure HItler was firmly against communism, after world war 2.
 

Deleted member 1487

Hitler was not a member of the KPD nor did he every harbor anything but antipathy towards Marxists of all stripes, especially after the end of WWI as he saw them as a major reason for Germany's defeat (Dolchstosslegende and all that). Hitler infiltrated the Communist Party as a spy for the German military; he never agreed/sympathized/believed in them.
Perhaps what I read on the subject was not a full telling of the situation. All that was said was that he went to rallies and was interested in the party in 1919 until he discovered they had links to the Bolsheviks. Hitler is not my specialty so I will defer to you on this.

Are you saying FDR modeled himself on Stalin?
I am saying that propaganda put out by the Soviet Union and limited press available on the country seemed to indicate to the world that the Soviet model worked to insulate the nation from the Great Depression. FDR reportedly admired "Uncle Joe" before the war and respected what he was able to accomplish in Russia. While he did not directly base his economic model on the Soviet Union, the success of the Soviets in insulating themselves from the global economic downturn, partly only propaganda, at least gave FDR a functioning to point to and suggest that adopting some more socialist policies could work in the real world. All I am suggesting is that it provided an example to the world that the Communist model (at least Stalin's version of it) could function in reality and not only in intellectuals' imaginations.

How and why is fascism discredited? Without WWII, there's no reason to think that fascism would just fall apart by itself in the 1950s, especially given the massive horde of butterflies that come out of a White victory.
Why would a war not come about without Communism? I agree that no Soviet Union creates massive butterflies, but with all the great changes in borders revanchist Russia will be trying to recreate their pre-war borders and deal with Poland. This is all likely to provoke a wider war. Not guaranteed, but likely. I know I am presupposing a lot, but Fascist ideology, at least IOTL, was focused on border 'corrections' and military strength. Historically they did not produce long term economically successful states and the major Fascist powers, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, though obviously not surviving, were headed toward economic meltdown in the long term. Combined with the flight of intellectuals and repression, these states are not likely to be the cutting edge of scientific research in the future, which means economic stagnation.

I'm willing to admit that I was perhaps too hasty in stating flatly that Fascism would fail, especially as it is likely to be somewhat different ITTL, but if the historic trends hold true for Russia as they did for Germany and Italy, I don't expect to see them develop industrially and economically like they did OTL. Long term I see failure like the Soviet Union. It may take decades, but eventually the kleptocratic and nepotistic systems would be poorly managed enough to fail.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Why would a war not come about without Communism? I agree that no Soviet Union creates massive butterflies, but with all the great changes in borders revanchist Russia will be trying to recreate their pre-war borders and deal with Poland. This is all likely to provoke a wider war. Not guaranteed, but likely.
Without the Soviet Union, there will be no WWII as we know it, nor do I think there'd necessarily be another major war in Europe.

The White regime that takes over in Russia will be revanchist. There will likely be a war with Poland down the line. This does not at all mean that it will balloon into a wider war. If it comes down to a choice between supporting a White Russia or Poland, Western Europe's going to stay out and offer tacit support for the Russians. Poland only received as much support as it did because it was a buffer between the Soviet Union and the West. Without godless, baby-eating, woman-nationalizing Bolshevism, there's really no point for the West to continue supporting Poland. Churchill never liked the idea of Poland, nor did most non-Poles; all of its neighbors distrusted/hated it and it only ever really complicated things. Hell, if anything we'd likely see a (non-Nazi) German-Russian alliance to get rid of Poland and restore pre-War borders there.

The only thing that will draw the West into a war against Russia would be if Russia tries something stupid in the Baltics or tries to regain Bessarabia or starts shoving Czechoslovakia around, which they'd likely be too smart to do.

Things could get interesting in the Balkans given the deep unease everybody had towards Hungary and the idea of Hungarian revanchism, so maybe something breaks out there and throws the region into the scramble, but I doubt you'd get anything like a pan-European war out of that.
I know I am presupposing a lot, but Fascist ideology, at least IOTL, was focused on border 'corrections' and military strength. Historically they did not produce long term economically successful states and the major Fascist powers, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, though obviously not surviving, were headed toward economic meltdown in the long term. Combined with the flight of intellectuals and repression, these states are not likely to be the cutting edge of scientific research in the future, which means economic stagnation.

I'm willing to admit that I was perhaps too hasty in stating flatly that Fascism would fail, especially as it is likely to be somewhat different ITTL, but if the historic trends hold true for Russia as they did for Germany and Italy, I don't expect to see them develop industrially and economically like they did OTL. Long term I see failure like the Soviet Union. It may take decades, but eventually the kleptocratic and nepotistic systems would be poorly managed enough to fail.
Well let's not be too hasty about fascism's predestined economic collapse; Spain is a good example of how fascism can economically survive. But that does not at all preclude your very valid point from occurring. With the exception of Spain, fascist states do tend to economically stagnate.

I would, though, not just lump Nazi Germany with Fascist Italy as Nazism isn't fascism (but that's a conversation for another thread ;)). But the main reason I would not make those two states more or less synonymous in this scenario is the fact that fascism is that it incorporates an economic system into its platform while Nazism does not. Fascism espouses national syndicalism/corporatism. Nazism espouses conquering the whole world and basically living off loot while hoping that it all works out somehow, and I don't think it'd be at all fair to compare mass looting to an actual economic system.

My only other note is that I think that the breakup of a fascist state would likely be much, much more violent relative to OTL's Soviet Union unless there's a major top-down attempt at reorganization a la Perestroika and Glasnost.
 
The Whites will try to recreate the Czarist empire. That puts them into conflict with the areas that initially escaped the Soviet Union's grasp - Poland, the Baltics, Finland, and those that did not - Ukraine, Central Asia, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. There are plenty of ways for the final map to fall out. The Whites are unlikely to win everywhere, and there will be seeds of some kind of revanchism.

The Whites were also made up of several competing factions which agreed on little. Some were autocrats on the Tsarist model, and others were democrats. Some wanted agrarian reform, and others didn't. There is going to be immense competition between them. This is likely to be solved militarily, not diplomatically. A worse case scenario is Russia splintering into warlordism as no one imposes control over the entire country.

Of course, without the Soviet Union, there will be massive changes to Communism. There will be much more variety as there will be no one who can impose a standard orthodoxy. And there is no one to aid other movements. This will have a lot of impact in China (not only because of the Chinese Communists, but because of how much support the Soviets gave the Kuomintang at various times.) This will also change German history considerably.
 
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