The Whale has Wings

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Astrodragon

What would be awkward is if the Japanese go for the Coral Sea option. Presuming intel tells the USN what they will be facing are they going to try facing it, with what force? They would need to send more than 2CV but that could leave them very weak if things go badly wrong as it might. Also would the US ask the RN for help? Think this might well be likely if there is enough warning as the RN could reach that area and since it would be Britain/Australian colonies and supply lines at sake. However the timing could be difficult.

OTL one of the Admiralty's worst decisions in WWII came up at this time.

[Admiral King was forced to ask the British to send one or more of their three carriers then operating off the Southwest African coast to go to the Coral Sea ASAP to act as a diversion for Midway (this was after the Battle of the Coral Sea). That someone as proud as King was prepared to go begging for favors from the British was a true measure of the crisis facing the US Navy in the events coming up to Midway. That the Admiralty refused him was a humiliation he never forgave, After the help the US Navy was sending to fight the U-Boats, as well as the deployment of the USS Wasp to help defend Malta, this refusal seemed nothing less than churlish. It was a mistake that Churchill later regretted when he realized how far it had set the unforgiving Ernest J. King against the British.]

The above paragraph is a paraphrasing from John Costello's "The Pacific War".

The reason given was that the Royal Navy feared a Japanese invasion of Madagascar, and deployed the Indian Ocean Fleet there. So while the USN was fighting the whole Imperial Japanese Navy, the British were desperately engaged with one midget submarine. Not one of the Royal Navy's prouder moments.:eek:

This time, with God's (and Astrodragon's) help, its going to be different.:cool:

stevep said:
I'm far less certain about RN support for a Midway battle. That's even less likely than the idea of US carriers operating from Singapore in support of the vital Japanese targets as it would be difficult to get British ships there from Singapore in time and they would be somewhat lacking in support. This would be the best bet that the IJN should go for either Midway or the south as it would ensure fighting only one enemy.

Steve

As said, even King didn't think OTL they could help at Midway. Coral Sea, OTOH:D And with the Monsoons in effect anyway...
 
I don't think it is a Britwank, I'm just worried it'll appear at first glance to be one, with the reasons you've given. To balance it out the UK would just need to suffer some bad luck for once in the Pacific, as so far all their plans in that theatre have been pretty much perfect. All it would take is one Japanese submarine to get lucky, for instance, for the UK to have a reasonable setback and show it's not just the USA who can have problems fighting the Japanese.

Really though I'm just impatient for ATL's Midway...

There is a world of difference between a Britwank and a Britwank/Alliedscrew. Astrodragon has shown the maturity of a writer well aware that a rising tide raises all boats.:) So, no Soviets fighting in Belarus and Americans on the Rhine on the same day Monty takes Berlin.:p
 
Not even the Japanese Army think they can invade Madagascar at this point...maybe after Midway...:D:p

In OTL, the RN was desperately trying not to get forced back in the Indian Ocean, actions in the mid-pacific seemed far away. This time its completely different; Nimitz and Somerville are (atm) operating roughly equal forces (in fact, in many respects the Eastern Fleet is stronger...!)

Very different dynamics. This time, a combined operation stands a good chance (if it comes off) of wrecking the Japanese fleet for the foreseeable future. There are, of course, risks to be considered. Next update will show what the Empire is thinking and what it proposes to do...;)
 
I know... He really does make uncommonly good military sense usually; I'm sure that Megat... I mean User=Tron2020 ;) is ex-military somewhere. Or just a good amateur military strategian :D (1)

I know what you mean about the hindsight thing, the logic is in there when you look; taking Sicily, Sardinia & Corsica while having Crete (& some of the other Dodecanese islands) puts the entire Italian West Coast, Southern French coast & Greece in fighter range. I'm surprised that it didn't occur to the CCoS ITL... I always thought that Operation Bodyguard was a bit thin when it came to the South of France. (2)

ATL, well the US can ask, plead, beg, scream or threaten for Operation Roundup/Overlord/Dragoon, but until they get more forces in Europe? It's not going to happen.(3)

1) As a health care giver for veterans, I'm not about to pretend to have served. Like Barack Obama, I grew up in a time of war (no memory of life pre-Vietnam) but I never had to serve. The Draft was ended when I was 13, and Saigon fell when I was 15. I went to college and then went to work for the VA. No personal military history. But I minored in history.

2) No Crete OTL. ITTL, the paradigm is changed.

3) But the US is in a position to insist on what NOT to do, when they can play the Commonwealth, the Captive Nations, and Britain herself off against some of Churchill's crazier schemes.
 
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How much do you want Britain/the CW to suffer? The Navy/Air Force/Army is suffering some troubling losses, the Japanese are (or were) threatening to isolate Singapore, Hong Kong has fallen, New Britain has been invaded, Australia & New Zealand are threatened with invasion... Geez, how much more incompetent do you want us to be? :D
It's all relative; of course it looks bad, the US is only just getting started. But already compared to OTL they have an extra Yorktown-class carrier (USS Ticonderoga), Wake fell for a higher price, some of the Naval aircraft (& probably some of the land ones too) are progressing through prototype to squadron service faster...

US losses have been worse up to this point. In addition to Pearl Harbor, they have already lost both of the Lexingtons, one of which wasn't lost until Coral Sea and the other survived the war.
 
So yet again the Japanese are underestimating their opponents. This will be what, four US fleet carriers plus whatever Somerville can spare versus 5 Japanese fleet carriers and a number of battleships, although the allies have no apprehensions that the Japanese are going to give them a rough time, while the Japanese are expecting a walkover. How are the Japanese for fuel, do they actually have enough to get everyone out and back, and enough ships to actually carry that quantity of fuel?

Can we assume by AD's post that the plans for the occupation of the New Hebrides, as well as invasions of Fiji, Samoa, and New Caledonia have been called off? I know there are a lot of butterflies now. OTL it was to be Midway/New Caledonia/2nd try at Port Moresby. Hawaii was considered so much blue sky over the horizon for the IJN by the time of Midway.

Midway was too small for a serious bomber base. The IJN saw it as a scouting base only. IIRC, it was too far away for fighters to escort bombers all the way to Oahu anyway.
 
A new update! :D :D

So Nimitz has asked Somerville for help... Will he stage a distraction or send a carrier (or two for a third taskforce) to help out? Tune in as soon as Astrodragon! writes the next section! And now, a word from our sponsor...
CalBear recommends Doug-be-gone cream for those really stubborn Buffalos!
;) :p

Actually, unless there have been changes from OTL, it would be King asking the Admiralty. And getting involved in the Coral Sea would be far better for the RN than Midway, I would think.
 
Actually their are being less complacent than OTL. They could have scraped up a fifth fleet carrier for OTL Midway but decided the four would be good enough since they were sure the US only had the two carriers. ITTL it looks like even if they aren't prepared to admit it out loud the IJN have been taken by surprise once too often and have decided to drop the hammer on the USN with everything they can muster. As to the RN I'm wondering if Audacious and some friends might not sneak up behind the Japanese force. Night attack on the Yamato perhaps?;)

Actually, BOTH sides were busting their asses to get more fleet CVs involved. The Saratoga and the Zuikaku were both making full steam towards Midway when the battle officially ended. The Zuikaku put about, while the Saratoga's air wing made for invaluable replacements for the depleted Enterprise and Hornet CAGs when she arrived on June 9th.

The huge mistake by the IJN was the whole idea of sending two carriers as a diversion to the Aleutians when the little Hosho could have done that job.

Oh? Sneaking up on the IJN fleet from another direction is impossible. Anywhere west is in Japanese-held Wake Island air range. To the south, you are in the Marshalls, and among the Japanese invasion force, its support units, and escorts. In the north, you are in the eternal mess that is the North Pacific, and the Japanese aren't there. East, and you're sailing with the Americans. Nighttime not withstanding, the Japanese will find them before dusk. Its May/June for the Battle of Midway, with the longest days of the year. In wide open ocean, and no narrows, no crowded islands to hide behind. This is the kind of naval warfare the Japanese and Americans have trained for.
 
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How much lead time did the Japanese and Americans have to OTL Midway?

Torqumada

Right about when the Battle of Coral Sea ended plus about a week the US Navy code-breakers knew for certain about Midway, and fixed the date as either June 4th or 5th. Later they were able to give Nimitz Yamamoto's entire order of battle.
 
One advantage I can think of for the US in TTL Midway, shouldn't the Marine fighters on Midway be F4U Corsairs now, seeing as there have been several mentions of butterflies getting this aircraft into service sooner than OTL.

Beyond the OTL number of fighters, I could see some of the older dive bombers stationed on Midway possibly even being replaced if there are enough Corsairs, seeing as in addition to being a fighter aircraft, the Corsair can easily carry a pair of 500lb bombs. That and given the Corsair only has one pilot compared to two or three aircrew for some dive bombers or torpedo aircraft, having a few less pilots around can make more room for infantry or ammo on the atoll.

Sadly, OTL Midway was stuck with just about the most obsolete fighters (15 Buffaloes) left in the entire US inventory. Plus Vindicators that had already been replaced on every carrier in the fleet. Ill-used B-17s, untrained crews in B-26s fitted as torpedo bombers, green SBD crews, a handful of F4Fs, PBYs employed as torpedo planes...and one utility biplane. I guess the most successful aircraft was the JFU, set up as a decoy, since it couldn't fly. The Japanese dropped a bomb on it.:p

Corsairs would be sweet, but I doubt that the USN has yet accepted that they are poor carrier planes yet. And the US Marines always wound up at the rear of the line when it came to new aircraft.:(
 
Guys

Well possibly Hitler wasn't the most totally insane leader during WWII. I'm also wondering about how the Japanese are going to fuel this force and get everything together. Presumably the capital ship force would be the surviving Kongo's and the Yamato as the other stuff would slow things down a fair bit, especially since they think the US has no capital ships available. [Given the situation in the Atlantic they should at least have considered that elements of the Atlantic fleet could be switched to the region.

However, from what I've read, while they might have won the OTL Midway naval battle [and possibly this one as well] they had next to nil chance of actually taking the island. The US force would have outnumbered the attackers at least 3-1 if I recall correctly as well as being dug in and ready. Doubt it will be much if any different TTL.

Then they think they can not only take Midway but hold it - which would be an almighty pig to supply:eek: and then use it as the base for a successful invasion of the Hawaiian islands!:eek::eek::eek: Sounds about as logical and practical as the suggestions of the British government the past couple of decades!

I can't see Somerville being able to send a task force all the way to Midway, especially since they would have to take a hell of a detour to get there without crossing Japanese dominated waters. Time, logistics and the fear of leaving Singapore and the south undefended, especially since while the US knows it has broken Japanese codes I don't think its passed the full details onto the UK so not sure Somerville or London can be confident of this.

However a major strike or two, using the bulk of the carrier force, including giving Audacious's aircrew some combat experience, could well occur. Hitting some of the Japanese air bases and ports and seeking to disrupt further their already suffering shipping would cause the enemy further problems. Possibly also cause them to detach at least something from the attack on Midway, or curtail it sooner.

Steve

Hitler WAS the most insane leader of WWII. He just wasn't the most incompetent.

The only "Fast Battleships" the IJN ever had were the Kongos. The Yamatos weren't fast enough to keep up with the carriers and the Ise, Hyuga, Fuso, and Yamashiro were only somewhat better than the US BBs.

Japanese intel may have been poor but even they had enough of a spy presence in Panama to know which OCEAN individual capital ships were in.

Your analysis of Midway's defenses are quite correct. Most people looking at it ignore the fact that the IJN could only stay on for so long before retreating to refuel, and only four cruisers were set aside as a Bombardment Force (loaded up with HE shells, while the rest of the fleet concentrated on AP).

HOLDING Midway was only a function of being used as a lure for the US fleet. With the US Fleet already there, the invasion only serves to destroy long range American recon abilities. Though that is a big ticket item, I doubt the IJN will be particularly concerned about that issue.

The alternatives you suggest for Somerville look very good, but I wonder if AD is going that way.

Invading the Hawaiian Islands is the Pacific breed of a certain never-to-be-mentioned marine creature that gives live birth.

6 months of Japanese oil production (including what they were getting from their new conquests) was used up by the combined Operation MI.
 
Where is the Major Japanese Fleet base in this time? Was the majority of the fleet based in the Inland Sea or somewhere on the coast?

How distributed are Japanese Munitions and Vehicle production facilities (Tank, Truck, Aircraft)? Do they have multiple small/medium factories or do they rely on a small number of large factories?

Operationally, in Truk, in the Carolines. But their home base is back in Japan. In Hiroshima Bay.
 
Oh, there is no way the Japanese can take Hawaii now. Doesn't mean they don't THINK they can..:)
Remember, these were the people thinking of taking the CONTINENT of Australia as well....:eek::eek:

Actually if they can hold Miday they could use it as a refuelling base. Which makes an attack on Hawaii possible. Not sane, just possible....:D
 
We shall see if the Bodyguard's underbelly is equally soft in TTL. Hopefully somebody will look at a map somewhere and see what we are seeing. Then again, I think the talk of springing the Adriatic open for simultaneous East Coast landings is a bit optimistic...(1)


Wow. This would be the IJN's new "Things haven't quite worked as we planned, so this is a more realistic set of objectives" plan coming to the fore, then? :eek:(2)

1) You ain't just whistlin' Dixie.

2) I wonder about that myself. The IJN flat out doesn't have the fuel, planes, ships, or other resources for such a pie-in-the-sky campaign. Tall tales told to keep the Emperor happy?
 
US losses have been worse up to this point. In addition to Pearl Harbor, they have already lost both of the Lexingtons, one of which wasn't lost until Coral Sea and the other survived the war.

This is true, but they have also inflicted heavier casualties on Japan. While they wouldn't admit it publically, trading 1:1 (or even less) with Japan means victory for the USN, considering what is coming out of the dockyards next year.
 
1) You ain't just whistlin' Dixie.

2) I wonder about that myself. The IJN flat out doesn't have the fuel, planes, ships, or other resources for such a pie-in-the-sky campaign. Tall tales told to keep the Emperor happy?

What else can they do? Admitting they are already stuffed and cant respond to the attack on the Home Islands in any meaningful way means too much of a loss of face...

Go for broke is what Yamamoto is really doing now. He was always a gambler...
 
On the Italian question...

Now the Germans will of course have made some contingency plans if the Italian defense (1) shows signs of collapsing - they cant just abandon Mussolini. But the point is, how long will it take them to decide the Italians cant hold and need reinforcing? (2) They arent going to start loading troops on trains as soon as the first Allied boot hits Italy (3) (although they would certainly be planning for this). But even moving troops by train takes time - especially if someone has blown the rail line. (4)

Unless there is ASB intervention, there is no way the Allies can get to the Alps/Northern Italy before the Germans react. The question is, if Italy surrenders (5) or even goes over to the allies, (6) how far north can O'Connor get before he runs into a defence line he has to stop at...? (Remember, no Mark Clark to screw things up TTL...:eek:) (7)

1) Not just military defenses. The Gestapo and German Foreign Ministry will be pouring poison into Hitler's ears about Italian treachery. This is Machiavelli's home country, after all.:p And as a distinctly NON-Fascist country, Italy was Germany's enemy in the last war. Didn't Hitler actually fight them himself at one point in WWI?

2) When the Regia Aeronautica and Italian Navy fails to move to defend their own home country's mainland. They might excuse Sicily, but not the boot.

3) Hitler...

4) Did this happen OTL? IIRC, the Germans took over the Italian rail network, crews, engines, rolling stock and all, pretty damn quick.

5) Even a controlled surrender won't be able to stem the Anti-Fascist explosion that comes when Benny falls, with the Communists leading the way.

6) I won't say that's ASB, but unless there is a anti-Fascist military coup with lots of current political prisoners thrown into the coup's active roster for the new regime to have legitimacy in the public's eyes... Too bad there's no hope of getting the backing of the Pope:eek::rolleyes:. Not THIS Pope:mad:

7) Guys, blame Clark if you like for botching things when he took Rome rather than scooping up several division of trapped Germans. But he is not an Evil Magical Talisman responsible for all wickedness to befall the Allies in Italy in WWII. It all has to do with WHERE the Allies land, WHEN, with how much force, under what circumstances regarding both the Italians and the Germans, how they each respond to the Allies, how quickly and how strongly, and finally, how much does Hitler really care about Benny? Based on OTL, I'd say, one helluva lot.:mad:

Italy is not Northern France. There can be no rapid breakouts here. Not with that terrain. Even in the Po River Valley you have the river itself either bisecting your lines (if you are coming from Genoa), or standing as a barrier to any advance. The Alps aren't the only thing for the Allies to worry about. And isn't this kind of talk really all about 1943, anyway? I mean, the U-Boats haven't even been beaten yet!
 
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What else can they do? Admitting they are already stuffed and cant respond to the attack on the Home Islands in any meaningful way means too much of a loss of face...

Go for broke is what Yamamoto is really doing now. He was always a gambler...

its also a bit of bushido spirit, better to die in a blaze of glory than look like a coward/ lose face.
 
1) Not just military defenses. The Gestapo and German Foreign Ministry will be pouring poison into Hitler's ears about Italian treachery. This is Machiavelli's home country, after all.:p And as a distinctly NON-Fascist country, Italy was Germany's enemy in the last war. Didn't Hitler actually fight them himself at one point in WWI?

2) When the Regia Aeronautica and Italian Navy fails to move to defend their own home country's mainland. They might excuse Sicily, but not the boot.

3) Hitler...

4) Did this happen OTL? IIRC, the Germans took over the Italian rail network, crews, engines, rolling stock and all, pretty damn quick.

5) Even a controlled surrender won't be able to stem the Anti-Fascist explosion that comes when Benny falls, with the Communists leading the way.

6) I won't say that's ASB, but unless there is a anti-Fascist military coup with lots of current political prisoners thrown into the coup's active roster for the new regime to have legitimacy in the public's eyes... Too bad there's no hope of getting the backing of the Pope:eek::rolleyes:. Not THIS Pope:mad:

7) Guys, blame Clark if you like for botching things when he took Rome rather than scooping up several division of trapped Germans. But he is not an Evil Magical Talisman responsible for all wickedness to befall the Allies in Italy in WWII. It all has to do with WHERE the Allies land, WHEN, with how much force, under what circumstances regarding both the Italians and the Germans, how they each respond to the Allies, how quickly and how strongly, and finally, how much does Hitler really care about Benny? Based on OTL,I'd say, one helluva lot.:mad:

Italy is not Northern France. There can be no rapid breakouts here. Not with that terrain. Even in the Po River Valley you have the river itself either bisecting your lines (if you are coming from Genoa), or standing as a barrier to any advance. The Alps aren't the only thing for the Allies to worry about. And isn't this kind of talk really all about 1943, anyway? I mean, the U-Boats haven't even been beaten yet!

What Italian Navy....?? :p:D
True, they haven't got Clark. They have someone even worse...:D

There is one thing to remember about OTL Italian campaign. It was after the Allies had had a gruelling set of battles across NA, getting caught repeadedly in counterattacks, and generally making them rather resistant to taking too many chances. This was a shame, as the initial Italian invasion was bogged down early as a result.
This time around this hasn't hapenned, and we have O'Connor in overall command. There will be a few thnigs done differently....
 
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