The Whale has Wings

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I just want to say that I support your Balkan ideas...
;)

Remember that Germany imported LARGE quantities of chromium from Turkey.
If you cut that railway in Thrace, that could really hurt Germany.

Irrelevant. The UK was, and the USA is now, buying up every ounce of chrome being mined in Turkey starting right after Pearl Harbor. For that alone the Turks got a pass from the Allies up to Turkey's DoW on the Axis OTL.
 
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but on a serious note. The IJN may have 8 decks -how many aircraft do they have?

serious question btw both aircraft and aircrew, and support staff.

Speaking only from an American perspective, I'd be most worried about Japanese carrier fighter casualties up to this point.:( They tended to be the most survivable in carrier ops, as they didn't have to charge into the teeth of naval AA and had the longest range. The RN and FAA could skirt them with night operations. The USN can't.:(
 

perfectgeneral

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BTW there will be a lot of pressure on the Brits to not only take back as many Greek Islands as possible, but also see if they can take some of the mainland back - especially w/ the Greek government in exile on Crete.

I imagine you mean the Corinth region (almost an island). Quite a big chunk to hit all at once. This would be a proper front that Germany could pour divisions and munitions into. There might be some fingers of the coastline that could offer a narrow front line. Depends on how well the invasion beaches are covered really. Egina island is bristling with long ranged artillery. The 'island' east of Khakis might be less defended, but rivalling the air support would require establishing large ports and airports on Skyros.

If you are going to go beyond islands then the coast on the Turkish border offers the largest strategic reward. Taking Bulgaria and Romania out of the picture trumps negating Italy. Especially Romania. Mostly in terms of oil assets, but also numbers on the eastern front.

http://www.axishistory.com/index.php?id=6471
OoB for June 1942

Losing the support of either Romania or Italy (loads more) would make a big difference in manpower (some of it real quality soldiers). I think that Greece could be sold on a compromise. Take the south of Italy and hold. Use the bases there to help supply a full scale retake of Greece. Once at least some of mainland Greece is defensible, land in southern France, hold that and then land in Normandy and push for Berlin where opportunity arises. Too many fires to put out. Either the terrain is hard enough to hold a big beachhead or easy enough to push forward.

I can't emphasise enough that logistic support is the key issue for Britain. They need to upgrade the ports and the transports. This will help with the Battle of the Atlantic too as ships are taking too long to load/unload and turn around. There may well be union trouble to bust over this, but the ports need reform and modernisation.


BRITAIN DELIVERS THE GOODS IN WARTIME: DOCK WORKERS IN BRISTOL, ENGLAND, 1940. © IWM (D 1218)IWM Non Commercial Licence

I'm not expecting ASB containerisation, but this is hardly state of the art for the time. If the Supply chain is entirely British, then there will be more pressure on it to succeed.
 
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I imagine you mean the Corinth region (almost an island). Quite a big chunk to hit all at once. This would be a proper front that Germany could pour divisions and munitions into. There might be some fingers of the coastline that could offer a narrow front line. Depends on how well the invasion beaches are covered really. Egina island is bristling with long ranged artillery. The 'island' east of Khakis might be less defended, but rivalling the air support would require establishing large ports and airports on Skyros.

If you are going to go beyond islands then the coast on the Turkish border offers the largest strategic reward. Taking Bulgaria and Romania out of the picture trumps negating Italy. Especially Romania. Both in terms of oil assets and shear numbers on the eastern front.

Isn't this completely ignoring logistical and LOCs realities in Greece? The ports in Greece are simply too small to support major operations. This is not counting Athens and Thessaloniki, of course. But they both connect with each other and the rest of Europe by rail. The other ports do not, not directly. Especially the ports in the Peloponnese region.

What is it about the Balkans? I agree it's a great place for battle training purposes, but the biggest problem with that is that the troops who need the training and battle experience the most, the Free French and especially the Americans, won't have anything to do with the Balkans. I can't imagine how many US Army War College seminars were held between the wars over the unworkability of Gallipoli. And I can't see Marshall (or for that matter, Brooke, who I see as a much wiser general than Marshall in most things) going for it.

The British simply CAN'T exploit the Balkans on their own. The US simply CAN'T do Overlord on their own. And between the two, with the Free French and probably every CW country except New Zealand backing Overlord over the Balkans, I just don't see Churchill getting his way. The key word being "Churchill". Not "the British". I'm seeing a lot of coulda-woulda-shoulda talk in this thread, but I believe that's more a function of a population of Alternate History fans. Not military history fans. In short, people trying to recommend change for the sake of change, not what is the best course to follow, or even the most likely based on current drivers.;)

I think that's why I keep pushing Sicily/Sardinia/Corsica/Who knows? It seems, IMHO, the best of all possible compromises ITTL, compared to the strategic options of OTL.
 
Depends on how the surrender is organised. The Germans do not have forces in Italy, the forces they have in the west in 42 are remnants of units destroyed in Russia or garrison units of dubious mobility.

The only material risk, unless forces are pulled out of Russia, to the Italians is other Italians and if the surrender is well managed the ‘Royalist’ elements will be disarming the ‘Fascist’. and the Germans will have to fight across the Alps to get to the Po. I can also see Musso being sequestered by some currently underemployed gentlemen and having an Island holiday somewhere difficult to land on until the peace.

One other thing, If Italy surrenders ( and this I think is pretty much OTL) the Italian POW in the UK become more available for work in UK industry and there is no great clamour to return them home - the remittances were too useful and OTL there was a war going on.

I am wondering how long before the IJN gets its act together and how much notice the allies will have. I have totally lost track but 8 decks sounds like Kaga, Akagi, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiyo, Junyo and? Taiho, if they are fleets Of which at least 1 is under repair and I am guessing about Taiho.

Can they Escort that? And for that matter will it be 8 or 4 here 2 there , one scouting and one doing something so fantastically subtle that no-one understands the purpose. Covering the Pacific from Midway to the Celebes.

If there is notice, well just how fast can Singapore finish a boiler cleaning and where are the UK Based carriers. We were promised Sea Eagles.
 
Depends on how the surrender is organised. The Germans do not have forces in Italy, the forces they have in the west in 42 are remnants of units destroyed in Russia or garrison units of dubious mobility.

The only material risk, unless forces are pulled out of Russia, to the Italians is other Italians and if the surrender is well managed the ‘Royalist’ elements will be disarming the ‘Fascist’. and the Germans will have to fight across the Alps to get to the Po. I can also see Musso being sequestered by some currently underemployed gentlemen and having an Island holiday somewhere difficult to land on until the peace.

One other thing, If Italy surrenders ( and this I think is pretty much OTL) the Italian POW in the UK become more available for work in UK industry and there is no great clamour to return them home - the remittances were too useful and OTL there was a war going on.

I am wondering how long before the IJN gets its act together and how much notice the allies will have. I have totally lost track but 8 decks sounds like Kaga, Akagi, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiyo, Junyo and? Taiho, if they are fleets Of which at least 1 is under repair and I am guessing about Taiho.

Can they Escort that? And for that matter will it be 8 or 4 here 2 there , one scouting and one doing something so fantastically subtle that no-one understands the purpose. Covering the Pacific from Midway to the Celebes.

If there is notice, well just how fast can Singapore finish a boiler cleaning and where are the UK Based carriers. We were promised Sea Eagles.

You've already got Sea Eagles. :p
And the Audacious has finished working up at Ceylon...
Boiler abd bottom cleanings take a few days (2-3 IIRC), depends a bit on the size of ship. Somerville is just making sure all his ships are in as good a condition as possible, some sort of Japanese fleet response is inevitable.
He has 5 fleet carriers, plus some lights. The UK carriers will be needed in the Med soon.

The IJN has 5 fleets available, plus whatever light carriers it can dredge up. They may not all have full aircraft loads, as OTL Midway.
 
The only material risk, unless forces are pulled out of Russia, to the Italians is other Italians and if the surrender is well managed the ‘Royalist’ elements will be disarming the ‘Fascist’. and the Germans will have to fight across the Alps to get to the Po. I can also see Musso being sequestered by some currently underemployed gentlemen and having an Island holiday somewhere difficult to land on until the peace.

"Fight"? Whose is to say the Italian reaction at the local level will be any different than OTL? It's not like Italy's entering the war was forced on them by Germany. And Germany responded to Italy's pleas for help while at the same time ITTL Italy (IIRC) did not send as much help for Barbarossa as IOTL. So, how could there be even the same (much less greater) sense of hostility be ITTL by Italians for Germans when they have far less reason to be hostile this time, compared to the outrages committed OTL in which they scarcely resisted occupation?

Gannt the Socialist (LAB) said:
One other thing, If Italy surrenders ( and this I think is pretty much OTL) the Italian POW in the UK become more available for work in UK industry and there is no great clamour to return them home - the remittances were too useful and OTL there was a war going on.

Didn't the Allies prefer to use POWs for agricultural purposes, since the chances for sabotage on a farm were comparatively nil?:confused:

Gannt the Social-Democratic Alliance (SODEMALL) said:
I am wondering how long before the IJN gets its act together and how much notice the allies will have. I have totally lost track but 8 decks sounds like Kaga, Akagi, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiyo, Junyo and? Taiho, if they are fleets Of which at least 1 is under repair and I am guessing about Taiho.

The Taiho isn't, and won't be, ready for a long time. It saw its first, and only, action at Philippine Sea. If AD spots the IJN the Taiho, he'll have to spot the Americans at least 4-5 Essexes and most of the Independences!:eek:

I confess that with the length of TTL, I've lost track of all the Jap CVLs that the RN has sunk. But I'm pretty sure it's been most of them. The only CVL that I know couldn't keep up with the KB was the Hosho, and I'm all but certain she's been sunk.

Gannt the Green (GRN) said:
Can they Escort that? And for that matter will it be 8 or 4 here 2 there , one scouting and one doing something so fantastically subtle that no-one understands the purpose. Covering the Pacific from Midway to the Celebes.

If there is notice, well just how fast can Singapore finish a boiler cleaning and where are the UK Based carriers. We were promised Sea Eagles.

Well, as another poster said, Yamamoto went to Midway minus one or two sampans, and that was about it.:rolleyes:
 
You've already got Sea Eagles. :p
And the Audacious has finished working up at Ceylon...

Speaking of which, what are the estimated commissioning dates of the next few British carriers?

I remember there was a build program with dates at some point but I can't seem to find it.
 
The allies did use POW for agricultural work but if italy surrenders they are not POW, just stuck in the UK which makes things more flexible. Most will probably stay on the land but its not a given.

I think the difference OTL and TTL in an Italian surrender is the lack of German presence in Italy. And from the look of it at the moment no inkling that a surrender is a possibility - we have Astro hinting. Practically wherever they could the italian 'regular' forces as opposed to coastal units cooperated with the allies and or fought the Germans. Then went home, then became partisans. But thats in a situation where their orders were confusing. Give a couple of german free days the situation could be a lot different.


Once there is a surrender Hitler will regard that as treachery and react in the manner we have all come to know and love so pro fascist individuals may find themselves part of a country thats just had war declared on it by the Reich.

The other issue is what if any garrisons are outside Italy.
 

perfectgeneral

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#3216
Fleet carriers
'Ark Royal' Class - 2 - Ark Royal, Illustrious
'Formidable' Class - 5 - Formidable, Victorious, Implacable, Indefatigable, Bulwark (ready sep 41)
'Audacious' Class - 6 building
Light Carriers
'Colossus' Class - 6 - Vengeange, Glory, Ocean, Edgar, Mars, Theseus
'Majestic' Class - 6 building

plus Unicorn, carrier maintenance ship (basically a modified Colossus), and Glorious, hermes and Eagle (old pre-war carriers)

There are also escort carriers and converted merchant ships.
I'll keep looking and add to this post.

EDIT:
#1236
Seems to contradict the expectation of six 'Audacious' Class:
The navy asked for three Audacious class carriers; this was whittled down to two, which would be laid down in March 1940.

Three of the improved light carriers (the Majestic class) had been ordered in Dec 1939; one more was added to the program.
Perhaps there is a post where four have already been laid down (and three Majestics) in 1939? I'll keep looking.
#529
Current carrier building program as of 1/1/1940 (and expected completion dates)

Fleet Carriers

HMS Implacable April 1940,HMS Indefatigable June 1940,HMS Bulwark July 1941

HMS Audacious (CV8)Jun 42,HMS Irresistable Aug 42

The navy would like to order additional Audacious class carriers, but there are issues as to fitting them into the building program. Discussions are ongoing; the FAA wants more carriers at the expense of the Lion class battleships (which have barely been started, and are currently on hold), the surface ship Admirals want the battleships, as they point out the number of carriers building compared to 5 replacement battleships.

Light Fleet carriers

HMS Ocean June 1940, HMS Edgar July 1940, HMS Theseus Sep 1940

HMS Unicorn (repair ship) was originally expected in Aug 1940 , but due to the pressure of other, more urgent, work, is now not expected until Nov 1940.

The navy wants more light carriers to release the fleet carriers for more offensive roles. The Colossus class has proved very successful, and a modified, larger version has been under design for some time. This will incorporate some improvements, and allow the carriers to continue to operate the same size air group with the newer, larger planes. The arrangements are also being altered in the assumption that (by the time they are conplete), deck parks will be much more prevalent, as it is already acnowleged that their main failing is lack of aircraft.

Three ships are authorised to start building in Dec 1939; HMS Magnificent, HMS Terrible and HMS Majestic. They are expected to complete in Feb-April 1942
Well that's the first two and the last two accounted for. I seem to have the key post straddled somewhere.
 
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Anyone want to give odds on who the Allies are talking to in Italy? Ciano? Victor Emmanuel? If street food is how things get done ITTL, I'll buy Astro a DC half-smoke if he saves the Italian monarchy.:D

300px-Chili_half_smoke_Bens.jpg
 
Anyone want to give odds on who the Allies are talking to in Italy? Ciano? Victor Emmanuel? If street food is how things get done ITTL, I'll buy Astro a DC half-smoke if he saves the Italian monarchy.:D

One point. The ALLIES aren't talking to the Italians, the BRITISH are. Hopefully this means a rather more efficient diplomatic deal than the mess in OTL.
 
It is a half-beef, half-pork, singularly treif smoked chili cheese dog, and it is eaten by better men than you or I.

I can respect British diplomacy, though if they present Fascist Italy minus Mussolini as a friendly ally, the French and probably the Americans are going to at least scratch their heads a bit. That's a helluva backpedal for a whole country to take, and a lot of water for Mussolini alone to carry.

I guess you could say "enemy's enemy" and all that, but I would still predict problems. Notably from the Italian people if they're left with what is at heart the same regime.

obama-at-bens-chili-bowl-5.jpg
 
After initial consideration, the High Command suggests that the Coral Sea and Midway options seem the most promising, as it is imperative to teach the Americans a lesson for bombing Japan and risking the life of the Emperor. The China Sea operation should be considered a follow-up to destroy the Royal Navies capapility in the area.
I don't want this TL to be accused of being a Britwank, so it's a pity that the Japanese had three options as to who to have a major battle with and decide to take on the US rather than the British. I assume this means if there is a costly battle for the Allies it'll be the US who takes the brunt of damage leaving the British able to keep up their very good run in the Pacific.

I understand the Japanese have honour over reason, but will the British at some point have a nasty surprise or setback in the Pacific? Otherwise on the surface they just seem to be doing too well and to be too lucky in this TL. Plus it'd make things more interesting if the protagonists don't have everything going their way!
 
One problem as I see it is that Fascism as a political force is extinguished in Sicily, but grows stronger as you go north. Beyond Rome, determined military resistance by the Italian against the German Army seems to be wishful thinking, especially in the Po River region and the Italian Alps. Consider that these Italians will be fighting their former allies who have a reputation for ferocious treatment of traitors. Add on Italy's military reputation compared to Germany's...
I could see the Italians basically "opening up" to British forces and even providing essential services (ports and railroads) IF the Germans don't rush in and spoil the party. But I can't honestly see them having the cojones to actually fight the German Army head on. Not to mention having the political will. Fascism collapsed pretty fast OTL, but their were plenty of determined diehard individuals ready to alert the Germans as to what was going on and play the role of collaborators.
I could see American troops being employed here in the role of "point of the spear" to hopefully (?) lighten Italian resistance (blood ties?).

I think the Po Valley will be massively different than OTL ;)
I can’t answer for the Italians, but with some Allied troops amongst them I would hope they’ll give a better showing – especially if they’re fighting from defensive positions. I think you’re right about them opening up to ALLIED forces if we can stop the Germans spoiling things!
Right now the Germans have few troops in Italy, they’ll probably rush some reinforcements to the region – mostly in the south - when/if Sicily is invaded. But there’s no fortified defenses yet, & if the campaign is run correctly there won’t be time either.

It’s probably not feasible, but imagine the 10th Army getting to Italy to find that the Alpine Line is already in place... manned by the Allies :D

Right around now, the available US regular troops pre-war should be training the new volunteers recruited/drafted since 12/07/41; the first batch should be ready soon. Assuming that the US industrial might have tooled up enough to supply them properly, that’s a lot of trained soldiers that only need combat experience & this is the way to give it to them; a campaign where the number of enemy ground forces is limited. Secure the Western Med first by taking Sicily first, then... Yes, I would imagine that the Italian-Americans in the ranks could be immensely useful there :D They might stiffen Italian resistance to the Germans too...

Sardinia, Corsica. Then, it depends on where the Germans concentrate their defenses.
If Southern France, as I suspect, then Genoa. This allows penetration into the Po River valley and ultimately setting up strategic bomber bases in easy reach of Southern and Central Germany, as well as the Balkans.
If Northwestern Italy, then Southern France.
If the Germans raid the cupboard and build up on both, then Greece.
If the Germans bulk up on all three, then even Roundup becomes thinkable.

I’d favour Northern Italy; with fast enough advance or a landing at Trieste, it also rules out the Germans setting up the Alpine Line or a variation thereof. There’s the option of further landings in Western Yugoslavia IF the US will go for it (since it’s likely heading for Germany not deeper into the Balkans).
NOOOO! :O Not Roundup... throwing green US/Allied troops into Bocage country? Sheesh! Also I don’t think we’ve got 48 Divisions yet... :p

If they bulk up on all four, then the Russian Front will collapse in on them.

I don’t think they’ll do that somehow, do you? The Soviets are the German’s main enemy right now, they’re only looking for mischief from the Western Allies at the moment. Although that will change rather quickly...

That means forcing the entire Adriatic Sea.

Not necessarily. Take Southern Italy first, then you have land-based air cover to help keep local air superiority. What have the German/Italian navies got to stop naval forces? Coastal craft only by now, maybe a few U-boats. So we’re worried about coastal guns? What else are the BB’s for now? :D An invasion force with a heavy escort & carrier backup could proceed at best speed up the Adriatic to perform the landings.

The gap between Pola/Trieste and Yugoslavia can be plugged by a couple of Panzer Corps backed up by infantry, with mountain divisions to the north.

That depends on who gets there first – see above. If you land forces in the area around Trieste & take the port as a priority target, then establish a good defensive perimeter? That plan goes out the window. It’s 300 miles from Trieste to Vienna/Bratislava...
I wonder if the NA success early on has affected Tizzard’s panel on “Methods of Attacking Ground Vehicles” for fighter-bombers? Mind you, the RP-3 was being developed for the Navy as an anti-Uboat weapons anyway... :D

Alright, so I might be deviating onto the slightly optimistic side, but there’s no great reason why Salerno has to be the limit of amphibious landings if the Allies have taken Sardinia & Corsica. The extension of air cover means the assaults can extend all the way up the Western (maybe even the Eastern) coastline.
Either way, we don’t want to still have forces sitting in Italy when the war ends if we can avoid it; those troops could be better somewhere else. And it’s less optimistic than Marshall going straight for Roundup in ‘42; what if he’d got his way? :O
 
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