The Whale has Wings

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Indiana Beach Crow

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Marines to Europe? Both the Army in general and the US Navy, plus the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, would have conniptions.:mad::p

During the briefings for Project Danny, which would have had Marine Corsairs armed with Tiny Tim rockets attacking V-1 launch sites, General Marshall said "That's the end of this briefing. As long as I'm in charge there'll never be a Marine in Europe." and then walked out of the room. So yeah, I don't think there's going to be much of a chance of the Marines coming any closer to Europe than Reykjavik.
 
Count me in

OK, As a few people seem interested..:eek:

I intend to e-pub it (thats kindle as well as other non-DRMd e-formats).
Currently it looks like coming in roughly as 3 novel-sized books (thats around 100-120k words, 300+ pages).
My current thinking it to do the individual books at $2.99/£1.99 (this is due to amazons rather odd pricing strategy!), and possibly the combined 3 at around $8/£5.

The main story will be a tidied-up version of the TL (still written as a history, the scope is too broad for other options to work well), and hopefully more readable. Maps will be added for the major actions and war areas. Tech stuff will be in Appendix (some AH readers love this stuff, some hate it, so putting it in as an appendix seems best).

The system does allow me the option of offering in dead tree format, but this is a lot more expensive - preliminiary guesstimates are around £8/9 per book, but it would be doable on demand, so I may make it available for anyone who wants that.

Depending on how much free time I get, Book 1 will be out November-ish. At the moment it looks like covering from 1932 up until just before Taranto (thus hopefully sucking new readers into Book 2;))

Count me in, not long had a Kindle and I would agree with previous posts that the standard of writing (and editing) is not always good. Your work on this TL trumps that by a mile. Make sure you let us know when it goes to 'press'. well done.
 
To get parity with the OTL Husky position the Germans need to move in ~300 a/c. :Leaving aside JU52 the entire air support for Blue was ~800 a/c with ~200 more elsewhere in Russia. The total FW190 inventory was around 300 a/c but that would leave the Luftwaffe with 40 odd single engine fighters in Norway, One in the West and none at all in Germany (Luftwaffenbefehlshaber Mitte). A lot of everything else is or could well be night fighter - not sure about the Do217s or penny packet bomber formations.or specialist anto shipping units in Norway. And LL to Russia is still going on.

And that’s to get parity - there ain’t the planes.

In the 18 months from start Barbarossa to December 42 Britain sent 3,000 a/c to Russia - that’s changed and while there would have been a hiatus post pearl French NA was liberated prior to Pearl and the rebuilding would have started early. A lot of the French inventory in NA was OTL US types so its really only the Leo and Dewotines that need changing. Regarding the Brits ( I may have understated total numbers in 42 but not Husky - only counted RAF sqdn not SAF RAAF etc.) I don’t have squadron strengths which OTL were going up and down like like something that goes up and down a lot because of the Gazala battles ( and a lot of that is temporary airfields. TTL they will be operating pretty much to full strength at start of the Air Op. The first part of which following Husky would be supression of the enemy air forces. If the Germans did try and rush stuff in its likely to get smashed on the ground the day it arrives (the allies will know this through ULTRA) or while it is waiting for its ground echelon to catch up. That’s more or less what happened with the emergency reinforcement after Overlord. (2000 a/c scattered across dispersals in France with minor failures, empty gas tanks and magazines, the fitters back in Germany, and the bowser doing the rounds oh and a pair of Typhoons .

The US army Navy and Marine Corps might have conniptions but would obey orders. I think they have already moved so its moot but there was a full marine brigade in Iceland up to March 42 and they are Amphib troops for an Amphib task.

As it is for the first attack on the Fascist monster in its lair the US army is likely to take 12th place behind the UK, Canada Australia, NZ, France, South Africa, India, Greece, Poland, The US Navy and the US Coastguard. Which on top of the Bolero/Roundup fiasco is going to be severely embarrassing.

Just as much as the Japanese the US Navy is going to have to reexamine its planning. Logistic build up for a cross pacific route may be what you planned for but you wont be able to do it for another 18 months. Right now you also have an RN (about the same size as the USN but with battleships) based out of Singapore, with a ?10 division ground force pushing the enemy back and an air force capable of controlling its own airspace and expanding that’s one amphib operation from being in bomber range of the Phillippines where US troops are still fighting.

Can someone explain to the President why the Navy is not rushing its assets to relieve the defenders of Bataan by joining with the RN and forcing through the relief?
 
The PI are still a huge problem to get to.

As the Japanese were successful with the invasion of the Celebes and most of the PI, they are isolated. The RN would have to fight a way through the Celebes and up past the PI (and the Japanese air bases), as well as the subs, or go past FIC/Formosa - same problem. The British dont have the troops or shipping available for a sensible reinforcement, what they have is rather occupied in SE Asia and the DEI. Certainly the Australians would look askance at the idea of stripping the areas protecting Australia in a probably futile attempt to hold the PI.

The USN simply has too far to go without again taking out the Japanese bases on the way. And again, where are the troops and shipping?

The PI were only accessable in the short term if Japan ignored SE Asia, Borneo and the Celebes, which they haven't
 
Not quite the issue I was thinking about. OTL it never arose. What we have now is a Pacific theatre version of the Torch/Sicily debate.

The US forces are not mobilised until mid late 43 so except on a limited basis, any US led strategy in the Pacific has to be wait until the forces are available, just as it was in Europe. But TTL the UK/CW forces are an active player just as they were in Europe and will have a strategy of their own, if only to liberate FIC, open the road to China.

I agree that an attack to the Phillippines right now is not feasible but very quickly, at least within 6 months or so an attack towards the Celebes or FIC is. Once there, or arguably anyway, mounting an offensive towards Japan from Singapore/Manila/Ryukyus is easier than doing it Pearl/Newly Constructed Base 1/ Newly Constructed Base 2/ Ditto 3/Ryukyus. The point of Orange is to get to the Ryukyus and then blockade Japan everything else is merely an intermediate step.

The UK/CW and French and Dutch will be pushing for something and are perfectly capable TTL of doing it on their own. An answer from the US Navy that their plan is really good they have been working on since 1900 and it’s a sure thing that will be ready for execution in a year or so is not going to cut it WITH FDR any more than King and Marshall’s plans for Europe did OTL
 
To get parity with the OTL Husky position the Germans need to move in ~300 a/c. :Leaving aside JU52 the entire air support for Blue was ~800 a/c with ~200 more elsewhere in Russia. The total FW190 inventory was around 300 a/c but that would leave the Luftwaffe with 40 odd single engine fighters in Norway, One in the West and none at all in Germany (Luftwaffenbefehlshaber Mitte). A lot of everything else is or could well be night fighter - not sure about the Do217s or penny packet bomber formations.or specialist anto shipping units in Norway. And LL to Russia is still going on.

And that’s to get parity - there ain’t the planes.

That's certainly an exhaustive study. There's just one little problem:

It's based on OTL aircraft numbers for the Germans. An assumption based on Germany not changing its priorities in the face of a much more successful British war effort than IOTL. The POD ITTL extends all the way back to 1932.

In the 18 months from start Barbarossa to December 42 Britain sent 3,000 a/c to Russia - that’s changed and while there would have been a hiatus post pearl French NA was liberated prior to Pearl and the rebuilding would have started early. A lot of the French inventory in NA was OTL US types so its really only the Leo and Dewotines that need changing. Regarding the Brits ( I may have understated total numbers in 42 but not Husky - only counted RAF sqdn not SAF RAAF etc.) I don’t have squadron strengths which OTL were going up and down like like something that goes up and down a lot because of the Gazala battles ( and a lot of that is temporary airfields. TTL they will be operating pretty much to full strength at start of the Air Op. The first part of which following Husky would be supression of the enemy air forces. If the Germans did try and rush stuff in its likely to get smashed on the ground the day it arrives (the allies will know this through ULTRA) or while it is waiting for its ground echelon to catch up. That’s more or less what happened with the emergency reinforcement after Overlord. (2000 a/c scattered across dispersals in France with minor failures, empty gas tanks and magazines, the fitters back in Germany, and the bowser doing the rounds oh and a pair of Typhoons.

I'm afraid that your analysis of Overlord versus circumstances in the Med simply doesn't work. In France, at the very start of D-Day, the Allies were deploying for the first time long range fighters and fighter-bombers with droptanks, giving them the capability of conducting sweeps against Luftwaffe bases over the whole of Western Europe. They went from being able to strike targets in Pas-de-Calais only to pretty much everywhere they needed to go. Most importantly, the Luftwaffe had nowhere to hide because of this. To pull back far enough to get out of the reach of droptank equipped fighter-bombers would put them so far away from Normandy as to render them useless.

In the Mediterranean in 1943? Or worse, in 1942? The range of Allied fighters at this time would be so limited that coming in from Tunesia (the only possible base ITTL, as even Libya is too far away) the best they could hope to cover is Sicily, and perhaps the extreme southern edges of Sardinia (Sardinia was gone over in this thread at length some time ago). The Allies can challenge the Luftwaffe over Sicily, but conduct large scale counterair missions beyond the island? No. If nothing else, the Luftwaffe can always simply operate from the Italian mainland, outside of Allied fighter range. Unless, that is, the RAF wants to go in in broad daylight attacking Luftwaffe fighter bases without escort!

The US army Navy and Marine Corps might have conniptions but would obey orders. I think they have already moved so its moot but there was a full marine brigade in Iceland up to March 42 and they are Amphib troops for an Amphib task.

No "might" about it. That's part of the historical record on such matters. And yes, they will obey orders. But who is to issue those orders? Both Marshall and King are dead set against the idea. Are you suggesting that Franklin Roosevelt is going to overrule his senior military commanders? Of all the Allied political leaders, no one interfered less than FDR regarding the wishes of his military advisors. He did not fancy himself a soldier. Lucky for him, and everyone else. No US Marines in Europe. Not in Greece, not in Sicily, not in Dieppe, not anywhere in the "Army's Show".

As it is for the first attack on the Fascist monster in its lair the US army is likely to take 12th place behind the UK, Canada Australia, NZ, France, South Africa, India, Greece, Poland, The US Navy and the US Coastguard.

Except in regards to getting US Army troops engaged against the Axis in 1942. For Roosevelt, THAT was second only to the Doolittle Raid in importance for the US military. It was a promise made to Marshal Stalin that the US would not let the year 1942 end without US troops fighting on the ground against the Axis. In fact, in a TL where L-L has been lessened over OTL, it actually makes getting the US Army in there all the mort important, come what may. I agree the US Army isn't ready at all. First Kasserine Pass was proof enough of that. But Second Kasserine Pass was proof enough that things weren't completely hopeless for the GIs either.

Just as much as the Japanese the US Navy is going to have to reexamine its planning. Logistic build up for a cross pacific route may be what you planned for but you wont be able to do it for another 18 months. Right now you also have an RN (about the same size as the USN but with battleships) based out of Singapore, with a ?10 division ground force pushing the enemy back and an air force capable of controlling its own airspace and expanding that’s one amphib operation from being in bomber range of the Phillippines where US troops are still fighting.

Except that the US knows the RN can't maintain a twelve month schedule due to a) the Monsoon season, and b) ETO commitments. The British are a part-time player in SE Asia. The Pacific, not at all, except defensively regarding New Guinea and Australia. The US can't make its Pacific War strategy relying on an ally that, no matter how successful, and through no fault of its own, can only be there for you six months out of the year. At best. At worst, the US has to assume things will go south in a Husky op or the U-Boat War or in Russia resulting in the war against Japan (by the British Empire) going as dormant (though still as successful ITTL) as OTL indefinitely.
 
Not quite the issue I was thinking about. OTL it never arose. What we have now is a Pacific theatre version of the Torch/Sicily debate.

The US forces are not mobilised until mid late 43 so except on a limited basis, any US led strategy in the Pacific has to be wait until the forces are available, just as it was in Europe. But TTL the UK/CW forces are an active player just as they were in Europe and will have a strategy of their own, if only to liberate FIC, open the road to China.

I agree that an attack to the Phillippines right now is not feasible but very quickly, at least within 6 months or so an attack towards the Celebes or FIC is. Once there, or arguably anyway, mounting an offensive towards Japan from Singapore/Manila/Ryukyus is easier than doing it Pearl/Newly Constructed Base 1/ Newly Constructed Base 2/ Ditto 3/Ryukyus. The point of Orange is to get to the Ryukyus and then blockade Japan everything else is merely an intermediate step.

The UK/CW and French and Dutch will be pushing for something and are perfectly capable TTL of doing it on their own.(1) An answer from the US Navy that their plan is really good they have been working on since 1900 and it’s a sure thing that will be ready for execution in a year or so is not going to cut it WITH FDR (2) any more than King and Marshall’s plans for Europe did OTL(3)

1) With what? When? Who's going to pay for it? Where will they go? How far? And against how much resistance? The Celebes? New Guinea? Thailand? FIC? And then what?:confused:

2) Actually, it will cut it. Since Roosevelt is a Europe Firster anyway, he sees the Pacific as a war effort to be supported, but not one for an immediate all out effort, either.

3) King's plans for Europe? And I don't know of anything regarding Marshall's plans other than Sledgehammer that were so odious.

The trick is that the Central Pacific Strategy does not call for large scale ground forces, and the commitments to US naval expansion are already made, so the navy will be there, and the ground forces demands will not be that great hopping from the Marshalls to the Marianas. Once there, they are in B-29 range.
 
I think Usertron2020 has it right. Britain has a set of clear strategic goals in SEA which should be largely achieved soon. After that all their attention will go to Sicily. Beyond that it probably depends on US progress but they only really have the resources to concentrate on one theatre at a time. The huge plus of early victory in NA was that they could afford to make SEA that theatre during late 41 and early 42.
 
In the Mediterranean in 1943? Or worse, in 1942? The range of Allied fighters at this time would be so limited that coming in from Tunesia (the only possible base ITTL, as even Libya is too far away)

You're forgetting Malta, which is unfortunate as it's only 60 miles off the south coast of Sicily and a Spitfire VB with a combat radius of 470 miles would be able to operate north of Rome from there. Malta hosted at least three major airbases (Hal Far, Luqa, and Ta Qali) and several minor ones, playing host to several hundred aircraft at its peak.
 
You're forgetting Malta, which is unfortunate as it's only 60 miles off the south coast of Sicily and a Spitfire VB with a combat radius of 470 miles would be able to operate north of Rome from there. Malta hosted at least three major airbases (Hal Far, Luqa, and Ta Qali) and several minor ones, playing host to several hundred aircraft at its peak.

Of ALL types. For the purposes of this discussion, we are talking fighters. And I didn't forget Malta. It helps, sure. But Malta needs to be supplied too. It is a minor port while Tunesia is supplied by rail linking to major ports outside of Axis air range. Malta's main concern will be defending itself and keeping the central Med clear.

EDIT: Combat radius is one thing. What is the linger time when that Spitfire VB is over a target in an area north of Rome? 30 seconds? Remember what happened to the Me-109 in the BoB? I imagine the distance from Malta to north of Rome is somewhat more than from Pas-de-Calais to Kent. Advantage to the Luftwaffe. Still.
 
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Malta isnt that small a port.

And Malta can be used as a forward air base, flying in replacements directly from NA. Remember also the RAF has longer ranged planes TTL. The Sparrowhak and Cormorant have better rabge operating from a land base, the Spitfire VIII is now operation (much longer range than the OTL SPit), and the Mustang is available (although not in the quantity desired yet). Their medium bombers can fly from NA bases.

They also have the carriers, able to add considerable air power (though for a relatively short time).

There is also one other problem for the Italians; with Crete and the best bits of the Dodecanese in the hands of the allies, thet have to keep men and planes in Greece to cover in case the allies decide to turn up on a greek beach instead.
 
Malta isnt that small a port.

And Malta can be used as a forward air base, flying in replacements directly from NA. Remember also the RAF has longer ranged planes TTL. The Sparrowhak and Cormorant have better rabge operating from a land base, the Spitfire VIII is now operation (much longer range than the OTL SPit), and the Mustang is available (although not in the quantity desired yet). Their medium bombers can fly from NA bases.

They also have the carriers, able to add considerable air power (though for a relatively short time).

There is also one other problem for the Italians; with Crete and the best bits of the Dodecanese in the hands of the allies, thet have to keep men and planes in Greece to cover in case the allies decide to turn up on a greek beach instead.

Excellent points all, as I hadn't considered the Spitfire VIII and Mustang being ITTL. But do they have droptanks yet?:confused: OTL, the Italians wanted the Allies to land at Rome during Avalanche, but this was considered impossible. Considering what happened at Salerno, I'd say kudos to Alexander.:)

Perhaps we are all too guilty all too often of falling into OTL thinking. For which we have our OP to set us straight.:)
 
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This bit started with User asking to be convinced that the Luftwaffe would not shred the allied air forces over Sicily in 42 so the question is how can the Axis do better in 42 than they did in 43.

The basic issue I have with the axis being able to defend Sicily in the air is that OTL it only took the allies a week to drive them out of Sicily with an air force that is not materially different from the one available in 1942 TTL

I suspect this has to do with the absence of a Radar/Control system and the location of the Sicilian airfields ( cluster around Gela which OTL fell within 48 hours of the landing) and Catania (OTL unusable within 2 weeks of the landings) and the axis merely putting in more a/c really means just more targets. But in order to achieve OTL levels of aircraft for Husky the Germans have to have a 10% increase in the overall operational strength of the Luftwaffe or take large chunks out of other fronts.

I agree Germany could have changed production priorities but have seen nothing in the TL to suggest that, certainly not to the extent that would gear up a 10-20% increase in overall Luftwaffe strength. That’s not only dependent pure a/c production/losses though that’s a factor but also on having the ground infrastructure to support and operate that number of aircraft.

The critical path on this is going to go through creating of plant (physical factory space), engine production (including spares) and ground crew training. Unless someone is going to claim that the 1939-April 1942 OTL strategic air campaign had a significant effect on Luftwaffe production I am not sure what has changed that would allow that. Germany has a significant constraint on concrete and steel production in the late 30's (which is needed for the machinery, rebar) and of course personnel to man the thing. In order to man the infantry units for 1942 offensives the Germans were anticipating conscript classes and borrowing skilled workers from industry.

10% increase in a/c strength gets you to parity with OTL Husky which is still a curb stomp for the allies, so you would, I would have thought need a significant margin above that to have a hope of making a difference. Another 350 a/c bring you to well basically half the strength of the Desert Air Force at the opening of Alamein, plus Italians and that’s about parity. But to do that you need to increase the size of the German aircraft industry and training facilities to a level it never came close to achieving or take close to 700 a/c from other fronts, This means denuding the west of single engine fighters in this time frame and leaving around 130 single engine fighter to cover the entire Russian Front.

Sure you could do it - but you don’t have panzer divisions if you do, or U boats, or fuzes or something and the rest of the German performance has been as per OTL ( with rather more sinkings admittedly) so I don’t see it.

And all of that is assuming that the Luftwaffe can reinforce in advance of alt Husky. If they are reacting to an invasion what they can do quickly is take aircraft from western Europe/Germany/Norway mainly fighters, and fly them in to bases in Sicily within a matter of 1-2 days from Russia probably closer to a week from order to arrival in theatre - and I am being optimistic.

But is this within 1-2 days of the opening of the air offensive or the landing? If it’s the air offensive all you are doing is drawing out the preparatory phase for a few days. If its after the landing only the Catania cluster is available and they are about as far from the fighting as Malta.

But doing that means basically denuding the whole of the rest of Europe of fighter aircraft. On arrival they will be sitting on the ground many with minor defects from the flight and knackered aircrew. The defects have to be fixed by ground crew unfamiliar with type (FW190 is not used in the Med at this point but it is the main type available from the West from the east its 109s) without spares, and then refuelled and rearmed by ground crew swamped by the numbers, largely Italian who are being bombed while they do it. Putting in 700 german a/c is a 300% increase the number the German ground crew have to service. The owned ground echelon for the reinforcements could catch up in say 2-3 days but that’s based on driving like ratshit in a Saab softop from Calais to Naples on 21st century Autoroute/Strada with nothing more than a ditchbag so more likely 7+days. If they are coming from Russia then the same but the ground echelons will arrive about the same time as the allies are using the Sicilian fields themselves.

Alternatively they could deploy/redeploy to Mainland Italy. There would still be problems on arrival. And attrition from night attacks on known airfield locations which until the ground crews can fix them means a write off for combat purposes, or massive C3 problems if you are operating from dispersals as well as the maintenance issues. I am not sure if there was much in the way of air infrastructure in Calabria I always thought the main clusters were Sardinia/Sicily/Foggia-Naples/Rome. But basing out of Italy the distances are similar to allies out of Tunisia/Malta and worse when the allies get Gela online. That gives the Axis a set of bad choices against an airforce that basically equals them in numbers and both out produces them and overall is qualitatively superior (half the axis air force is Italian) Malta and Tunisia based a/c will be having a cold one by the time you get to do a BDA over their target and the fighters you have got will be pretty ineffective as Jabos.

On the Marine thing I suspect we are agreeing - the Iceland force if OTL is followed will be on there way to the pacific from March but. FDR is committed to ground forces in action in 42 and I think rightly Marshall will insist on a full division if its Army. He is not in a position to delay any Sicily operation to wait for a division and a token brigade is going to be a liability all around. Divisions are meant to fight as divisions. The saving grace of the US army at Kasserine was the artillery which performed excellently from the start and the divisional mix of guns is meant to operate as a unit even if part tasked to specific formations. If the US wanted to actually add something to the Sicily operation apart from a photo op it would be a full division by hook or by crook (and given its Sicily that may not be far from the truth) or the unique capabilities of the Marines.

More generally the thing I am trying to get discussed is the lack of any viable US plan for the next year in any theatre. OTL when King and Marshall both went to FDR ( according to Citino) and said reject Torch and concentrate on the Pacific he gave them until afternoon to come back with the plan, they had none.

At the moment the US is being driven per OTL by what the Brits want in the Med, they are likely to be driven by what other people want in the Pacific too absent their own plan. This never happened OTL as they were basically the only player and on the back foot. There was an Orange variant based out of Singapore that never went anywhere so what I am saying is that there is pressure from the French and Dutch and Brits and Aussies to drive the Japanese back, there is also pressure from the US to liberate the Philippines and the Navy OTL plan probably can’t be accelerated. As said the UK/CW/Euro forces probably can’t do it alone but the with the main US force operating on the Singapore/Celebes or Borneo/Phillipines/Ryukyu axis that gives a,lets say 5/6 division force (US that OTL went to Guadalcanal and 2-3 allied (Aussie and Brit)available in 42 early 43 a very large carrier force and mostly covered by land based air there is a strong argument to do that now, and deprive the IJN of its oil field and US navy war plans division saying that’s not the war we wanted to fight our plan is to wait a year and a bit and do what we first thought of is not going to cut it with FDR even of they can sell it to King. They are going to have to come out with reasons other than 'we want to fight a different war'
 
Malta isnt that small a port.

It's not small at all. By way of perspective, here's a picture of the USS John F Kennedy tied up in Grand Harbour with absolutely no trouble at all, and here's a wider picture of Grand Harbour - JFK is tied up where the cruise ship is in that picture and isn't that much bigger. If the JFK (max displacement 80KT) can tie up, Valletta can take anything around in WW2 with room to spare.
 
Grand Harbour, Malta is called that for a reason! it is one of the finest natural deepwater shelters in the world. in 19th/20th centuaries it was allso the main fleet base of the RN in the Med. As an invasion support port you can not get much better. it is as close to Sically as Southampton/Portsmouth are to Normandy.:)
 
Grand Harbour, Malta is called that for a reason! it is one of the finest natural deepwater shelters in the world. in 19th/20th centuaries it was allso the main fleet base of the RN in the Med. As an invasion support port you can not get much better. it is as close to Sically as Southampton/Portsmouth are to Normandy.:)

Between the Pax Britannica and 1940 the Central Med was an Anglo-French lake, with little to threaten Malta. Then came France's surrender, Italy's entry into the war, and suddenly Britain's position went from overwhelming superiority (at the exact time of the French surrender) to helpless inferiority. So whether in peacetime, or war, Malta's defenses were not a serious concern, nor did the fleet there have to worry much about their own affairs until that time.

What about the size of the island itself for putting all that there including aircraft, equipment, supplies, fuel, ammunition, troops, landing craft, logistical personnel, etc, etc, etc... The whole island is only 122 square miles in size after all.:eek: Is the civilian population going to be evacuated? Because you'd just about have to.

I remember the very good points made against the idea of setting up a strategic bomber base in Crete, because of its small size.

Crete is 3,219 square miles in area. You could fit 26 Maltas on Crete and be left with considerable space to spare.

Or is this assuming that other forces are also coming from ports in NA?
 
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What about the size of the island itself for putting all that there including aircraft, equipment, supplies, fuel, ammunition, troops, landing craft, logistical personnel, etc, etc, etc... The whole island is only 122 square miles in size after all.:eek: Is the civilian population going to be evacuated? Because you'd just about have to.

I remember the very good points made against the idea of setting up a strategic bomber base in Crete, because of its small size.

Crete is 3,219 square miles in area. You could fit 26 Maltas on Crete and be left with considerable space to spare.

Or is this assuming that other forces are also coming from ports in NA?

In theory its going to be temporary and not a permanent base for large bombers and really only a staging post for the shorter range craft although the bays and creeks are going to get crowded.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/article.../Malta-and-the-1943-invasion-of-Sicily.428113

A multitude of aircraft, ships and troops were gathered at various points along the North African coast because of the limited space available on the island.


However, two new airfields, one at Qrendi and another one at Xewkija, were commissioned in the build-up to accommodate extra aircraft.
 
This bit started with User asking to be convinced that the Luftwaffe would not shred the allied air forces over Sicily in 42 so the question is how can the Axis do better in 42 than they did in 43.

The basic issue I have with the axis being able to defend Sicily in the air is that OTL it only took the allies a week to drive them out of Sicily with an air force that is not materially different from the one available in 1942 TTL

I suspect this has to do with the absence of a Radar/Control system and the location of the Sicilian airfields ( cluster around Gela which OTL fell within 48 hours of the landing) and Catania (OTL unusable within 2 weeks of the landings) and the axis merely putting in more a/c really means just more targets. But in order to achieve OTL levels of aircraft for Husky the Germans have to have a 10% increase in the overall operational strength of the Luftwaffe or take large chunks out of other fronts.

You have just touched on a matter I had not considered.:eek: Redeployment times. There are only so many planes that could be moved from the east and west to the Med, and only so fast. So if the Axis air forces are mostly in the East, denuded in the West, stripped in the North except for specialist aircraft for attacking the Murmansk convoys, as well as what may be needed for facing the RAF bomber streams over Germany.

So, while personally IMVHO I DO believe Hitler will strip whatever he can from most theaters, those planes he can send from the east can really only come in a steady stream, not one overwhelming surge. By the time that a major portion of the Luftwaffe COULD be redeployed, Husky would not only be over, but even a Sardinia campaign might be underway.

So, I find myself coming around to your way of thinking, Gannt.:) Not because of Allied air power and qualitative superiority, but because even with interior lines, and even with Hitlerian hysterics, it just won't be possible to move so many fighters so quickly.

I agree Germany could have changed production priorities but have seen nothing in the TL to suggest that, certainly not to the extent that would gear up a 10-20% increase in overall Luftwaffe strength. That’s not only dependent pure a/c production/losses though that’s a factor but also on having the ground infrastructure to support and operate that number of aircraft.

Considering the POD of greater British air preparedness over OTL, I would submit that even Goering would not be so incompetent as to fail to respond. After all, there are other people who would have a say over the matter of aircraft production, as well as diversion of resources. Air Marshal Milch, Reichsminister Todt, and Albert Speer (assuming he's gotten or will get a serious job ITTL?).

The critical path on this is going to go through creating of plant (physical factory space), engine production (including spares) and ground crew training. Unless someone is going to claim that the 1939-April 1942 OTL strategic air campaign had a significant effect on Luftwaffe production I am not sure what has changed that would allow that. Germany has a significant constraint on concrete and steel production in the late 30's (which is needed for the machinery, rebar) and of course personnel to man the thing. In order to man the infantry units for 1942 offensives the Germans were anticipating conscript classes and borrowing skilled workers from industry.

OTOH, if Hitler doesn't scale back his war production as he did OTL following the surrender of France, that could leave considerable leeway for expansion. And if, God forbid, the use of conscripted slave workers comes into play earlier:(:(:(:( to fill the manpower gaps in the factories (regardless of the sabotage, which WILL qualitatively downgrade German equipment even more quickly OTL).

10% increase in a/c strength gets you to parity with OTL Husky which is still a curb stomp for the allies, so you would, I would have thought need a significant margin above that to have a hope of making a difference. Another 350 a/c bring you to well basically half the strength of the Desert Air Force at the opening of Alamein, plus Italians and that’s about parity. But to do that you need to increase the size of the German aircraft industry and training facilities to a level it never came close to achieving or take close to 700 a/c from other fronts, This means denuding the west of single engine fighters in this time frame and leaving around 130 single engine fighter to cover the entire Russian Front.

The former I might see possible if the FW-190s really are incapable of hitting the new British high-altitude daylight bombers. Also, the night-fighters aren't going anywhere anyway. But as I said above yes there's no way all those fighters could get redeployed from Russia to Sicily in time. But a couple hundred fighters? Perhaps. It's all but handwaving to say the Germans won't respond in a significant manner because they are "too busy". I've seen too many lopsided wanks where one nation or part of a front (say a wank for a favored general officer) seems to carry all before it, while the enemy fights everyone else as hard as they possibly can, and act as if that one country or front is seemingly equipped with H.G. Wells' Martian War Machines!:eek:

Not suggesting that ANYTHING like that is happening here. Astrodragon's running a great TL. I just worry a lot. And as others have said, while Husky is now looking OK, what next?

Sure you could do it - but you don’t have panzer divisions if you do, or U boats, or fuzes or something and the rest of the German performance has been as per OTL ( with rather more sinkings admittedly) so I don’t see it.

And all of that is assuming that the Luftwaffe can reinforce in advance of alt Husky. If they are reacting to an invasion what they can do quickly is take aircraft from western Europe/Germany/Norway mainly fighters, and fly them in to bases in Sicily within a matter of 1-2 days from Russia probably closer to a week from order to arrival in theatre - and I am being optimistic.

But is this within 1-2 days of the opening of the air offensive or the landing? If it’s the air offensive all you are doing is drawing out the preparatory phase for a few days. If its after the landing only the Catania cluster is available and they are about as far from the fighting as Malta.

But doing that means basically denuding the whole of the rest of Europe of fighter aircraft. On arrival they will be sitting on the ground many with minor defects from the flight and knackered aircrew. The defects have to be fixed by ground crew unfamiliar with type (FW190 is not used in the Med at this point but it is the main type available from the West from the east its 109s) without spares, and then refuelled and rearmed by ground crew swamped by the numbers, largely Italian who are being bombed while they do it. Putting in 700 german a/c is a 300% increase the number the German ground crew have to service. The owned ground echelon for the reinforcements could catch up in say 2-3 days but that’s based on driving like ratshit in a Saab softop from Calais to Naples on 21st century Autoroute/Strada with nothing more than a ditchbag so more likely 7+days. If they are coming from Russia then the same but the ground echelons will arrive about the same time as the allies are using the Sicilian fields themselves.

Alternatively they could deploy/redeploy to Mainland Italy. There would still be problems on arrival. And attrition from night attacks on known airfield locations which until the ground crews can fix them means a write off for combat purposes, or massive C3 problems if you are operating from dispersals as well as the maintenance issues. I am not sure if there was much in the way of air infrastructure in Calabria I always thought the main clusters were Sardinia/Sicily/Foggia-Naples/Rome. But basing out of Italy the distances are similar to allies out of Tunisia/Malta and worse when the allies get Gela online. That gives the Axis a set of bad choices against an airforce that basically equals them in numbers and both out produces them and overall is qualitatively superior (half the axis air force is Italian) Malta and Tunisia based a/c will be having a cold one by the time you get to do a BDA over their target and the fighters you have got will be pretty ineffective as Jabos.

My eyes are tired. OK.

On the Marine thing I suspect we are agreeing - the Iceland force if OTL is followed will be on there way to the pacific from March but. FDR is committed to ground forces in action in 42 and I think rightly Marshall will insist on a full division if its Army. He is not in a position to delay any Sicily operation to wait for a division and a token brigade is going to be a liability all around. Divisions are meant to fight as divisions. The saving grace of the US army at Kasserine was the artillery which performed excellently from the start and the divisional mix of guns is meant to operate as a unit even if part tasked to specific formations. If the US wanted to actually add something to the Sicily operation apart from a photo op it would be a full division by hook or by crook (and given its Sicily that may not be far from the truth) or the unique capabilities of the Marines.

There is the political advantage of using American troops on Sicily. There wasn't a family on the island that didn't have relatives in the United States. And an awful lot of Italian-speaking GIs at this time. Resistance by Italians against the Allies after the breakout from the beaches varied on who fought who. If the Italians fought in cadre with the Germans they tended to fight as well (or poorly) as ever. Italian resistance in units fighting without Germans was very weak against the British by this time. But against American formations, their resistance simply collapsed. As Sir Lawrence Olivier once narrated: "...at times, surrendering by the regiment!" It wasn't Patton's great military genius:rolleyes: that allowed the Americans to swiftly cross Sicily and take Palermo. Their biggest problem (after dealing with the Hermann Goering Panzers) was handling all those Italian POWs.

At the moment the US is being driven per OTL by what the Brits want in the Med, they are likely to be driven by what other people want in the Pacific too absent their own plan. This never happened OTL as they were basically the only player and on the back foot. There was an Orange variant based out of Singapore that never went anywhere so what I am saying is that there is pressure from the French and Dutch and Brits and Aussies to drive the Japanese back, there is also pressure from the US to liberate the Philippines and the Navy OTL plan probably can’t be accelerated. As said the UK/CW/Euro forces probably can’t do it alone but the with the main US force operating on the Singapore/Celebes or Borneo/Phillipines/Ryukyu axis that gives a,lets say 5/6 division force (US that OTL went to Guadalcanal and 2-3 allied (Aussie and Brit)available in 42 early 43 a very large carrier force and mostly covered by land based air there is a strong argument to do that now, and deprive the IJN of its oil field and US navy war plans division saying that’s not the war we wanted to fight our plan is to wait a year and a bit and do what we first thought of is not going to cut it with FDR even of they can sell it to King. They are going to have to come out with reasons other than 'we want to fight a different war'

In 1942 the British pretty much called ALL the strategic shots. In 1943, it depended on the theater, but the British were still the dominant player for most of the world. In 1944, the situation pretty much reversed from 1943. In 1945, it was the reverse from 1942.

Your logic about 'we want to fight a different kind of war' is impeccable. Unfortunately, politics may dictate otherwise. I can't imagine American troops being any happier to fight to restore imperial power in the Celebes than would Australians, Dutch, and British troops to do the same in the Philippines. Politics can be a two-edged sword, unfortunately. FDR may not want to have his army deal with the possibility of meeting native partisans fighting the Japanese. These resistance fighters (in say, Celebes?) might work hand-in-glove with GIs and Marines but want nothing to do with the forces of Imperial troops or their former (?) Dutch masters.
 
Your logic about 'we want to fight a different kind of war' is impeccable. Unfortunately, politics may dictate otherwise. I can't imagine American troops being any happier to fight to restore imperial power in the Celebes than would Australians, Dutch, and British troops to do the same in the Philippines. Politics can be a two-edged sword, unfortunately. FDR may not want to have his army deal with the possibility of meeting native partisans fighting the Japanese. These resistance fighters (in say, Celebes?) might work hand-in-glove with GIs and Marines but want nothing to do with the forces of Imperial troops or their former (?) Dutch masters.

Celebes and the Moluccas were the most loyal regions actually. the otl resistance originated mostly from java, as others already said before, the events that gave the resistance a start (jap occupation and the 6 month gap after the jap surrender) did not happen here. the japs managed to get only a few incursions which are in the process of being suppressed. So in the majority of the east-indies colonial power would be uncontested, so extremely doubtful if some of the natives would try to go solo. your train of thought is too much influenced by the OTL events, here the word 'former' will not be thought. in fact what is happening in ittl might actually cement relations.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Your logic about 'we want to fight a different kind of war' is impeccable. Unfortunately, politics may dictate otherwise. I can't imagine American troops being any happier to fight to restore imperial power in the Celebes than would Australians, Dutch, and British troops to do the same in the Philippines. Politics can be a two-edged sword, unfortunately. FDR may not want to have his army deal with the possibility of meeting native partisans fighting the Japanese. These resistance fighters (in say, Celebes?) might work hand-in-glove with GIs and Marines but want nothing to do with the forces of Imperial troops or their former (?) Dutch masters.

There is not going to be a anti-Japanese Nationalist resistance in the Japanese occupied-DEI. There might be some (not much) Nationalist collaboration on the southern part of Celebes and there could very well be quite a bit of pro-Dutch resistance at Menado and especially the Moluccans but nothing that's going to take pot-shots at the Japanese and the Dutch. Except maybe the Dajaks on Borneo but that has nothing to do nationalis, they just liked to collect heads :D
 
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