This bit started with User asking to be convinced that the Luftwaffe would not shred the allied air forces over Sicily in 42 so the question is how can the Axis do better in 42 than they did in 43.
The basic issue I have with the axis being able to defend Sicily in the air is that OTL it only took the allies a week to drive them out of Sicily with an air force that is not materially different from the one available in 1942 TTL
I suspect this has to do with the absence of a Radar/Control system and the location of the Sicilian airfields ( cluster around Gela which OTL fell within 48 hours of the landing) and Catania (OTL unusable within 2 weeks of the landings) and the axis merely putting in more a/c really means just more targets. But in order to achieve OTL levels of aircraft for Husky the Germans have to have a 10% increase in the overall operational strength of the Luftwaffe or take large chunks out of other fronts.
You have just touched on a matter I had not considered.

Redeployment times. There are only so many planes that could be moved from the east and west to the Med, and only so fast. So if the Axis air forces are mostly in the East, denuded in the West, stripped in the North except for specialist aircraft for attacking the Murmansk convoys, as well as what may be needed for facing the RAF bomber streams over Germany.
So, while personally IMVHO I DO believe Hitler will strip whatever he can from most theaters, those planes he can send from the east can really only come in a steady stream, not one overwhelming surge. By the time that a major portion of the Luftwaffe COULD be redeployed, Husky would not only be over, but even a Sardinia campaign might be underway.
So, I find myself coming around to your way of thinking, Gannt.

Not because of Allied air power and qualitative superiority, but because even with interior lines, and even with Hitlerian hysterics, it just won't be possible to move so many fighters so quickly.
I agree Germany could have changed production priorities but have seen nothing in the TL to suggest that, certainly not to the extent that would gear up a 10-20% increase in overall Luftwaffe strength. That’s not only dependent pure a/c production/losses though that’s a factor but also on having the ground infrastructure to support and operate that number of aircraft.
Considering the POD of greater British air preparedness over OTL, I would submit that even Goering would not be so incompetent as to fail to respond. After all, there are other people who would have a say over the matter of aircraft production, as well as diversion of resources. Air Marshal Milch, Reichsminister Todt, and Albert Speer (assuming he's gotten or will get a serious job ITTL?).
The critical path on this is going to go through creating of plant (physical factory space), engine production (including spares) and ground crew training. Unless someone is going to claim that the 1939-April 1942 OTL strategic air campaign had a significant effect on Luftwaffe production I am not sure what has changed that would allow that. Germany has a significant constraint on concrete and steel production in the late 30's (which is needed for the machinery, rebar) and of course personnel to man the thing. In order to man the infantry units for 1942 offensives the Germans were anticipating conscript classes and borrowing skilled workers from industry.
OTOH, if Hitler doesn't scale back his war production as he did OTL following the surrender of France, that could leave considerable leeway for expansion. And if, God forbid, the use of conscripted slave workers comes into play earlier




to fill the manpower gaps in the factories (regardless of the sabotage, which WILL qualitatively downgrade German equipment even more quickly OTL).
10% increase in a/c strength gets you to parity with OTL Husky which is still a curb stomp for the allies, so you would, I would have thought need a significant margin above that to have a hope of making a difference. Another 350 a/c bring you to well basically half the strength of the Desert Air Force at the opening of Alamein, plus Italians and that’s about parity. But to do that you need to increase the size of the German aircraft industry and training facilities to a level it never came close to achieving or take close to 700 a/c from other fronts, This means denuding the west of single engine fighters in this time frame and leaving around 130 single engine fighter to cover the entire Russian Front.
The former I might see possible if the FW-190s really are incapable of hitting the new British high-altitude daylight bombers. Also, the night-fighters aren't going anywhere anyway. But as I said above yes there's no way all those fighters could get redeployed from Russia to Sicily in time. But a couple hundred fighters? Perhaps. It's all but handwaving to say the Germans won't respond in a significant manner because they are "too busy". I've seen too many lopsided wanks where one nation or part of a front (say a wank for a favored general officer) seems to carry all before it, while the enemy fights everyone else as hard as they possibly can, and act as if that one country or front is seemingly equipped with H.G. Wells' Martian War Machines!
Not suggesting that ANYTHING like that is happening here. Astrodragon's running a great TL. I just worry a lot. And as others have said, while Husky is now looking OK, what next?
Sure you could do it - but you don’t have panzer divisions if you do, or U boats, or fuzes or something and the rest of the German performance has been as per OTL ( with rather more sinkings admittedly) so I don’t see it.
And all of that is assuming that the Luftwaffe can reinforce in advance of alt Husky. If they are reacting to an invasion what they can do quickly is take aircraft from western Europe/Germany/Norway mainly fighters, and fly them in to bases in Sicily within a matter of 1-2 days from Russia probably closer to a week from order to arrival in theatre - and I am being optimistic.
But is this within 1-2 days of the opening of the air offensive or the landing? If it’s the air offensive all you are doing is drawing out the preparatory phase for a few days. If its after the landing only the Catania cluster is available and they are about as far from the fighting as Malta.
But doing that means basically denuding the whole of the rest of Europe of fighter aircraft. On arrival they will be sitting on the ground many with minor defects from the flight and knackered aircrew. The defects have to be fixed by ground crew unfamiliar with type (FW190 is not used in the Med at this point but it is the main type available from the West from the east its 109s) without spares, and then refuelled and rearmed by ground crew swamped by the numbers, largely Italian who are being bombed while they do it. Putting in 700 german a/c is a 300% increase the number the German ground crew have to service. The owned ground echelon for the reinforcements could catch up in say 2-3 days but that’s based on driving like ratshit in a Saab softop from Calais to Naples on 21st century Autoroute/Strada with nothing more than a ditchbag so more likely 7+days. If they are coming from Russia then the same but the ground echelons will arrive about the same time as the allies are using the Sicilian fields themselves.
Alternatively they could deploy/redeploy to Mainland Italy. There would still be problems on arrival. And attrition from night attacks on known airfield locations which until the ground crews can fix them means a write off for combat purposes, or massive C3 problems if you are operating from dispersals as well as the maintenance issues. I am not sure if there was much in the way of air infrastructure in Calabria I always thought the main clusters were Sardinia/Sicily/Foggia-Naples/Rome. But basing out of Italy the distances are similar to allies out of Tunisia/Malta and worse when the allies get Gela online. That gives the Axis a set of bad choices against an airforce that basically equals them in numbers and both out produces them and overall is qualitatively superior (half the axis air force is Italian) Malta and Tunisia based a/c will be having a cold one by the time you get to do a BDA over their target and the fighters you have got will be pretty ineffective as Jabos.
My eyes are tired. OK.
On the Marine thing I suspect we are agreeing - the Iceland force if OTL is followed will be on there way to the pacific from March but. FDR is committed to ground forces in action in 42 and I think rightly Marshall will insist on a full division if its Army. He is not in a position to delay any Sicily operation to wait for a division and a token brigade is going to be a liability all around. Divisions are meant to fight as divisions. The saving grace of the US army at Kasserine was the artillery which performed excellently from the start and the divisional mix of guns is meant to operate as a unit even if part tasked to specific formations. If the US wanted to actually add something to the Sicily operation apart from a photo op it would be a full division by hook or by crook (and given its Sicily that may not be far from the truth) or the unique capabilities of the Marines.
There is the political advantage of using American troops on Sicily. There wasn't a family on the island that didn't have relatives in the United States. And an awful lot of Italian-speaking GIs at this time. Resistance by Italians against the Allies after the breakout from the beaches varied on who fought who. If the Italians fought in cadre with the Germans they tended to fight as well (or poorly) as ever. Italian resistance in units fighting without Germans was very weak against the British by this time. But against American formations, their resistance simply collapsed. As Sir Lawrence Olivier once narrated: "...at times, surrendering by the regiment!" It wasn't Patton's great military genius

that allowed the Americans to swiftly cross Sicily and take Palermo. Their biggest problem (after dealing with the Hermann Goering Panzers) was handling all those Italian POWs.
At the moment the US is being driven per OTL by what the Brits want in the Med, they are likely to be driven by what other people want in the Pacific too absent their own plan. This never happened OTL as they were basically the only player and on the back foot. There was an Orange variant based out of Singapore that never went anywhere so what I am saying is that there is pressure from the French and Dutch and Brits and Aussies to drive the Japanese back, there is also pressure from the US to liberate the Philippines and the Navy OTL plan probably can’t be accelerated. As said the UK/CW/Euro forces probably can’t do it alone but the with the main US force operating on the Singapore/Celebes or Borneo/Phillipines/Ryukyu axis that gives a,lets say 5/6 division force (US that OTL went to Guadalcanal and 2-3 allied (Aussie and Brit)available in 42 early 43 a very large carrier force and mostly covered by land based air there is a strong argument to do that now, and deprive the IJN of its oil field and US navy war plans division saying that’s not the war we wanted to fight our plan is to wait a year and a bit and do what we first thought of is not going to cut it with FDR even of they can sell it to King. They are going to have to come out with reasons other than 'we want to fight a different war'
In 1942 the British pretty much called ALL the strategic shots. In 1943, it depended on the theater, but the British were still the dominant player for most of the world. In 1944, the situation pretty much reversed from 1943. In 1945, it was the reverse from 1942.
Your logic about 'we want to fight a different kind of war' is impeccable. Unfortunately, politics may dictate otherwise. I can't imagine American troops being any happier to fight to restore imperial power in the Celebes than would Australians, Dutch, and British troops to do the same in the Philippines. Politics can be a two-edged sword, unfortunately. FDR may not want to have his army deal with the possibility of meeting native partisans fighting the Japanese. These resistance fighters (in say, Celebes?) might work hand-in-glove with GIs and Marines but want nothing to do with the forces of Imperial troops or their former (?) Dutch masters.