The Whale has Wings

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GarethC

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If Japan negotiates early probably see Korea & Formosa held, but all Pacific islands (execpt Okinawa etc) gone. The Chinese will want Manchukuo back...

I don't see FDR going for that. After Pearl Harbor, the US will want Japan emasculated like Germany after the Treaty of Versailles - independent Korea, US administration of Okinawa and Formosa prior to independence, Manchuria to Chiang, near-complete demilitarization.

Until the US has some experience of the cost of invading Japanese-held territory (which they haven't done yet) the fear of the casualty list for Coronet/Downfall won't temper the rhetoric in the Pacific.

One interesting butterfly of an early end to the Pacific war is the ability to channel more aid to Chiang. If the KMT can hold on, then there will be no Korean War, no Vietnam.
 

perfectgeneral

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So the Allies would take a surrender that included all overseas holdings and the IJN, but this is too much for the Japanese militarist government. As things stand a fight to total loss (and only then surrender) is the only 'way forward'.

Really, we should be asking which is the most glorious/noble strategy for Japan? An honourable way for the state (and most of the country) to die?

With the threat of naval isolation, denying the opportunity for death in battle. You might think that the aim would be to get as many warriors as possible to the mainland, where they can't be denied a glorious death in battle or perhaps even victory. However do the Japanese anticipate their enemies denying them a defence battle against invasion of the homeland? Would they allow for the possibility that an enemy would hold back and watch them starve? Are they really so cowardly?

I think we must be guided by decisions from OTL (albeit made later in the war). Naval attack until impossible, then defence (including suicide bombers) followed by homeland defence (including an Imperial militia of everyone) with continued efforts in China throughout.
 
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I may get flak for saying this but the war looks pretty much over for Japan in the first 3 months.

IMO they would be looking to contacting neutral countries soon and asking for peace talks. They've pretty much failed to achieve their goals and they would know things are only going to get worse in the next few months.

It's easier to talk peace in the early stages of a war than later. The only question is how harsh the Allies terms would be and whether they would offer the Japanese a face saving way out.

Pearl Harbor. No face saving way out. They lost that option when they launched a sneak attack during high level peace talks. As Herman Wouk said, they actually did the Nazis one better.
 
The Japanese are run by a collective leadership not by a single crazy dictator hell bent on self destruction. They are aggressive, arrogant and prone to self delusion but they aren't stupid and they will know their gamble has failed and will look for a way out if they can.

Google the names Anami, Toyoda, Umezu, and Sugiyama; then tell me that they aren't stupid. Stupidity comes in many forms.

As I said the problem is what terms the Allies offer. OTL the Americans did keep the Emperor after almost 4 years of war. IMO most American people would see victory as enough. (1) OTL the US government had no problem ignoring the wishes of its people when it didn't hang the Emperor and even rehabilitated him. (2) Also remember that Roosevelt wants to fight in Europe not the Pacific. If the Japanese throw in the towel in exchange for certain guarrantees (eg keeping the Emperor, Korea and Taiwan) then I think he would take it. (3)

1) Uh, your record of opinions to date regarding your knowledge of the USA and Americans in general does not exactly instill confidence.:eek:

2) Yes, well this was after nearly four years of war in Europe and the Pacific, with the Japanese Navy that launched Pearl Harbor virtually wiped out to the last few handful of vessels. For example, every single last Japanese warship that participated in Pearl Harbor (save for a single destroyer) did not survive the war. Not to mention Japan's cities being burned to ash and bone, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki thrown in for good measure. And unlike the Germans, who feasted on looted food in occupied Europe, the Japanese people at the end of the war were literally starving. So by anyone's measure, the Japanese had been punished enough.

Moreover, at the time it was part of Allied propaganda to ridicule Hirohito for his insignificance and powerlessness regarding his role in WWII decision-making. Had we known then what we know now, a different outcome may have been possible. Abdication, at the very least.

Oh, and the Australians, BTW, were far more insistent that Hirohito hang than the US.

3) "He" would be Impeached by the House, put on Trial in the Senate, Convicted, and Removed. Huge Democratic majorities be damned. As to your record to date regarding Franklin Roosevelt? See (1)

The sticking point would be that he would insist on a withdrawal fom China (4) but as I said the Chinese would soon be gaining the upper hand anyway if the Burma road stays open.(5)

4) About the only way that's going to happen is if the Japanese government stops sending supplies to the mainland. And assassinations galore don't result in Tokyo.

5) As soon as Chaing stops seeing his own generals, and the CCP, as greater threats than Japan. And he stops socking so much of his aid to Swiss bank accounts.

I am not suggesting that the Japanese would throw in the towel in March 1942 but if they can't take Java or Singapore then it's over before its really started. I would expect peace feelers after the Americans win (6) the ATL version of Midway sometime in the summer.

6) Don't you mean IF:D they win?
 
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That is a very real possibility but The Allies would then have the option of simply containing Japan once the IJN is either destroyed or its fuel has run out and it's not able to challenge Allied naval supremacy. They would also just keep pumping supplies into Chiang and eventually the Kwantung Army would be defeated, cut off from resources there's no way that Japan could regenerate its military to ore-war levels. This would be a very messy outcome though.

The trick is that "containing" Japan requires a long war anyway. Japan still has a huge defensive barrier to protect itself at this point.
 
This would require the resignation and prosecution for war crimes of the politicians and generals who were the architects of the war of aggression, and the adoption of a reasonable facsimile of parliamentary democracy. I think you'd see U.S. calls for vengeance wither away if these things were done.(#) The final disposition of Manchuria could be held off until after the war in Europe.

#) Not if the body politic in the USA feels that the Japanese have gotten off scot-free. Merely losing territories, scrapping naval units ala the Imperial German High Seas fleet in 1919, disbanding the IJA? It sounds like the Japanese are simply cashing in what few chips they have left, getting up from the table, and hoping to do better the next time.:mad: Weimar Republic, anyone? Japan's parliamentary democracy worked because Japan was crushed, and had no desire whatsoever to embrace militarism ever again. Not to mention having hundreds of thousands of US Army occupation troops to keep an eye on millions of unemployed former Japanese soldiers.

ITTL, you'd be looking at a "stab in the back" myth developing.:(

In the closing days of the war the Japanese Supreme War Council DID discuss the Four Conditions:

1) Protect the Emperor
2) Japan will disarm itself
3) Japan will prosecute its own war criminals
4) No occupation of Japanese territory (this could be interpreted as just the Home Islands, Karafuto, and the Kuriles; or including Korea and Formosa).

THIS, at the very end, was what they would accept. The problem, as the Japanese Foreign Minister pointed out, was that there was no way Imperial Japan could ever carry out Conditions 2 & 3, and no way that the Allies would allow Condition 4.
 
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The Japanese are run by a collective leadership not by a single crazy dictator hell bent on self destruction. They are aggressive, arrogant and prone to self delusion but they aren't stupid and they will know their gamble has failed and will look for a way out if they can.

As I said the problem is what terms the Allies offer. OTL the Americans did keep the Emperor after almost 4 years of war. IMO most American people would see victory as enough. OTL the US government had no problem ignoring the wishes of its people when it didn't hang the Emperor and even rehabilitated him. Also remember that Roosevelt wants to fight in Europe not the Pacific. If the Japanese throw in the towel in exchange for certain guarrantees (eg keeping the Emperor, Korea and Taiwan) then I think he would take it.

The sticking point would be that he would insist on a withdrawal fom China but as I said the Chinese would soon be gaining the upper hand anyway if the Burma road stays open.

I am not suggesting that the Japanese would throw in the towel in March 1942 but if they can't take Java or Singapore then it's over before its really started. I would expect peace feelers after the Americans win the ATL version of Midway sometime in the summer.

After the attack on Pearl Harbor, there is simply no way the American public would accept anything less than unconditional surrender from Japan. That's what FDR promised, and he would be held to that promise. The immense sense of betrayal plus the incipient racism of early 1940s America would allow nothing less than complete submission from Japan. Although later revisionist historians would no doubt harshly criticize a "Starve Japan into Surrender" strategy, just as they have the use of atomic weapons, Americans at the time would have no problem accepting that as a solution. It would be difficult for anyone who has read the newspapers and speeches from that era, or talked with the people who lived through that time, to believe otherwise.
 
As I said the problem is what terms the Allies offer. OTL the Americans did keep the Emperor after almost 4 years of war. IMO most American people would see victory as enough. OTL the US government had no problem ignoring the wishes of its people when it didn't hang the Emperor and even rehabilitated him.

Keeping the emperor was an American decision made after an unconditional surrender not a negotiated term. Expecting the US to accept anything less then an unconditional surrender is unrealistic. Remember that this is a country that arrested and locked into camps US citizens for the crime of being Japanese.

Halsey's reaction upon seeing Pearl Harbor, "Before we're through with them, the Japanese language will be spoken only in hell", would be the typical American attitude at the time. Japanese actions during the war only hardened these attitudes. A statement made by General Marshal on the Bataan Death March basically underlines the attitude.

"These brutal reprisals upon helpless victims evidence the shallow advance from savagery which the Japanese people have made. We serve notice upon the Japanese military and political leaders as well as the Japanese people that the future of the Japanese race itself, depends entirely and irrevocably upon their capacity to progress beyond their aboriginal barbaric instincts"

Once you start making public statements like that, very little room is left for compromise.
 
Apologies for not so many updates this weekm its just too damn hot here...

There's a reason dragons plant their scaly butts on top of nice, COOL mountains...:mad:
 
Apologies for not so many updates this weekm its just too damn hot here...

There's a reason dragons plant their scaly butts on top of nice, COOL mountains...:mad:

What about the ones that live in hell or volcanoes?

I wish it were cool here. For a UK resident this heat is all annoying and stuff.
 
Remember we don't have a climate, just weather:).
It starts p!ssing down again on Friday, so we have that to look forward to and moan about next.


Who's moaning? I love the grey/black overcast look of clouds, and the smell of rain in the air. Rain is like a loyal friend, albeit one who has a habit of drunkenly crashing people's barbeques uninvited.
 
This weekend dry, next weekend.the heavens open up.

How do i know, one of my friends is going to a caravan........it ALWAYS rains when he goes to a caravan.
 
This weekend dry, next weekend.the heavens open up.

How do i know, one of my friends is going to a caravan........it ALWAYS rains when he goes to a caravan.

So if we send caravans anywhere, rain will happen?

SHIP SOME TO...uhh...AFRICA! YES, ALL OF IT!
 
Is this form of debating really necessary? It's not as if your opponent is arguing for a successful Sea Lion.(1)

A bit more civility, please.

1) Don't be so certain. Have you read his post history regarding Franklin Roosevelt, the USA, Americans, and any post in response to criticism? You have your PM option blocked, so I suggest respectfully that you read his posts from January 19th, 2012 forward if you wish to see what I mean.
 
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1) Don't be so certain. Have you read his post history regarding Franklin Roosevelt, the USA, Americans, and any post in response to criticism? You have your PM option blocked, so I suggest respectfully that you read his posts from January 19th, 2012 forward if you wish to see what I mean.

In fairness to Devolved, most of the critism was from you because you were not happy with the direction it took and most of it was unjustified, I find some of your opinions crass and quite blinkered with american bias but it's your opinion and your entitled to it, dragging this up again after 6 months, in someone elses thread, is almost childish but not quite as childish as some of your over reaction in Devolved's timeline (What was all that pointless crap with deleting your own posts and typing your replys in white).

Devolved is entitled to his opinion, as you are to yours and you are both entitled to some respect when you post it on this board.

My thoughts are that the Allieds will starve the Japanese once they have wrested control of the DEI and the Phillipenes in the next year or so, moving to Iwo Jima and Okinawa to get into bombing range of the home islands.

Whats the status of the Marianas islands in this TL, do the US still have possesion at this moment in time?
 
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