The Whale has Wings

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tchizek
Garrison
Gannt the chartist

All VERY good points. Indeed, between the desperation of taking the DEI and answering the humiliation of the Doolittle Raid, it's hard to think of a compromise between the IJA and IJN. The navy may want a dramatic strike ala Midway but that is really beyond their means as long as the DEI remains in Allied hands or is too close to Allied air power to be exploited without the tanker traffic being interdicted and the refineries and oilfields being destroyed. Once a refinery is smashed in these circumstances, it stays smashed. Balikpapen isn't Ploesti, which could be heavily defended and materials railed in to quickly repair bomb damage.

Even with 20-20 hindsight, I can't see an answer for the Japanese.

EDIT: 1942 Kamikazes?:eek:
 
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tchizek
Garrison
Gannt the chartist

All VERY good points. Indeed, between the desperation of taking the DEI and answering the humiliation of the Doolittle Raid, it's hard to think of a compromise between the IJA and IJN. The navy may want a dramatic strike ala Midway but that is really beyond their means as long as the DEI remains in Allied hands or is too close to Allied air power to be exploited without the tanker traffic being interdicted and the refineries and oilfields being destroyed. Once a refinery is smashed in these circumstances, it stays smashed. Balikpapen isn't Ploesti, which could be heavily defended and materials railed in to quickly repair bomb damage.

Even with 20-20 hindsight, I can't see an answer for the Japanese.

EDIT: 1942 Kamikazes?:eek:

usertron2020

Now that's a nasty thought. I suspect it might well happen as the Japanese military won't be willing to accept defeat yet, just because things have not quite gone according to plan.

Even so, that won't help them much anywhere their trying to attack, since I doubt they could get invasion forces through. However could make the liberation of occupied Borneo and Philippines and any amphibious move on FIC costly.:(

Steve
 
I may get flak for saying this but the war looks pretty much over for Japan in the first 3 months.

IMO they would be looking to contacting neutral countries soon and asking for peace talks. They've pretty much failed to achieve their goals and they would know things are only going to get worse in the next few months.

It's easier to talk peace in the early stages of a war than later. The only question is how harsh the Allies terms would be and whether they would offer the Japanese a face saving way out.
 
I may get flak for saying this but the war looks pretty much over for Japan in the first 3 months.

IMO they would be looking to contacting neutral countries soon and asking for peace talks. They've pretty much failed to achieve their goals and they would know things are only going to get worse in the next few months.

It's easier to talk peace in the early stages of a war than later. The only question is how harsh the Allies terms would be and whether they would offer the Japanese a face saving way out.

Devolved

That would be the logical thing but we are talking about imperial Japan here. Especially since at the very least this would require mass surrenders of equipment and withdrawal form China and all allied lands occupied by Japan, possibly also Taiwan and Korea, I can't see the Japanese military being willing to lose so much face this early in the conflict.

Steve
 
Devolved

That would be the logical thing but we are talking about imperial Japan here. Especially since at the very least this would require mass surrenders of equipment and withdrawal form China and all allied lands occupied by Japan, possibly also Taiwan and Korea, I can't see the Japanese military being willing to lose so much face this early in the conflict.

Steve

And on the flip side is the USA really going to be inclined to offer any sort of terms the Japanese might find acceptable? The US public wants vengeance and it would be political suicide to be seen to be 'soft' on the Japanese.
 
OTL the Japanese had 'victory disease' and the British Empire was pretty much out of the Asian war from mid '42 to mid '44.

ITTL North Africa has been cleared and the RN can deploy a sizeable and capable fleet plus army units to deal with the Japanese. The Japanese have failed to seize many important objectives and it won't be long before they are on the defensive. If Burma survives (as it certainly will) then the Burma road can supply the Chinese army and since OTL the Chinese were able to defeat the Japanese army at Changsha in 1942 they would be able to start rolling back the Japanese soon.

The Japanese are run by a collective leadership not by a single crazy dictator hell bent on self destruction. They are aggressive, arrogant and prone to self delusion but they aren't stupid and they will know their gamble has failed and will look for a way out if they can.

As I said the problem is what terms the Allies offer. OTL the Americans did keep the Emperor after almost 4 years of war. IMO most American people would see victory as enough. OTL the US government had no problem ignoring the wishes of its people when it didn't hang the Emperor and even rehabilitated him. Also remember that Roosevelt wants to fight in Europe not the Pacific. If the Japanese throw in the towel in exchange for certain guarrantees (eg keeping the Emperor, Korea and Taiwan) then I think he would take it.

The sticking point would be that he would insist on a withdrawal fom China but as I said the Chinese would soon be gaining the upper hand anyway if the Burma road stays open.

I am not suggesting that the Japanese would throw in the towel in March 1942 but if they can't take Java or Singapore then it's over before its really started. I would expect peace feelers after the Americans win the ATL version of Midway sometime in the summer.
 
Devolved

That would be the logical thing but we are talking about imperial Japan here. Especially since at the very least this would require mass surrenders of equipment and withdrawal form China and all allied lands occupied by Japan, possibly also Taiwan and Korea, I can't see the Japanese military being willing to lose so much face this early in the conflict.

Steve

The logical thing for Japan to have done would have been to negotiate an end to the embargo the previous summer, sadly logic and fanaticism don't mix well. The longer it goes on the harder the eventual peace will be but the Japanese are incapable of seeing that.
 
Japan does need to make peace.
The allies do have a reason to make peace - they are at war with Germany and this is a distraction with right now not too many allied casualties and limited atrocities. The biggest problem apart from Japanese psychology is that the US have not won a victory, if Astro has the USN getting revenge for Pearl then a Japanese peace feeler may not be rejected out of hand. Let the war go on and something like the Death March happen that changes.


Of course the problem is that any Japanese government that does reach out is likely to be personally (but patriotically!) murdered by junior officers and they know it. Its not completely impossible and Japan could get away with retaining Korea and Taiwan with Manchukuo being independent - and Naval disarmament.
 
OTL the Japanese had 'victory disease' and the British Empire was pretty much out of the Asian war from mid '42 to mid '44.

ITTL North Africa has been cleared and the RN can deploy a sizeable and capable fleet plus army units to deal with the Japanese. The Japanese have failed to seize many important objectives and it won't be long before they are on the defensive. If Burma survives (as it certainly will) then the Burma road can supply the Chinese army and since OTL the Chinese were able to defeat the Japanese army at Changsha in 1942 they would be able to start rolling back the Japanese soon.

The Japanese are run by a collective leadership not by a single crazy dictator hell bent on self destruction. They are aggressive, arrogant and prone to self delusion but they aren't stupid and they will know their gamble has failed and will look for a way out if they can.

As I said the problem is what terms the Allies offer. OTL the Americans did keep the Emperor after almost 4 years of war. IMO most American people would see victory as enough. OTL the US government had no problem ignoring the wishes of its people when it didn't hang the Emperor and even rehabilitated him. Also remember that Roosevelt wants to fight in Europe not the Pacific. If the Japanese throw in the towel in exchange for certain guarrantees (eg keeping the Emperor, Korea and Taiwan) then I think he would take it.

The sticking point would be that he would insist on a withdrawal fom China but as I said the Chinese would soon be gaining the upper hand anyway if the Burma road stays open.

I am not suggesting that the Japanese would throw in the towel in March 1942 but if they can't take Java or Singapore then it's over before its really started. I would expect peace feelers after the Americans win the ATL version of Midway sometime in the summer.

The problem is that OTL even after the Home Islands were completely blockaded and Tokyo was devastated by a firestorm they didn't give up. Even after two A-Bombs and a Soviet declaration of war some of the leadership wanted to fight on. A few 'setbacks' in SEA and the Pacific ITTL aren't going to make them see reason.
 
The problem is that OTL even after the Home Islands were completely blockaded and Tokyo was devastated by a firestorm they didn't give up. Even after two A-Bombs and a Soviet declaration of war some of the leadership wanted to fight on. A few 'setbacks' in SEA and the Pacific ITTL aren't going to make them see reason.

That is a very real possibility but The Allies would then have the option of simply containing Japan once the IJN is either destroyed or its fuel has run out and it's not able to challenge Allied naval supremacy. They would also just keep pumping supplies into Chiang and eventually the Kwantung Army would be defeated, cut off from resources there's no way that Japan could regenerate its military to ore-war levels. This would be a very messy outcome though.
 
That is a very real possibility but The Allies would then have the option of simply containing Japan once the IJN is either destroyed or its fuel has run out and it's not able to challenge Allied naval supremacy. They would also just keep pumping supplies into Chiang and eventually the Kwantung Army would be defeated, cut off from resources there's no way that Japan could regenerate its military to ore-war levels. This would be a very messy outcome though.

That seems the most likely option. With no A-Bombs and no likelihood of an invasion for several years you wind up with an isolated Japan that has no merchant fleet and comes under increasingly heavy air attack as the aircraft become available; very, very, messy.
 
Of course the problem is that any Japanese government that does reach out is likely to be personally (but patriotically!) murdered by junior officers and they know it. Its not completely impossible and Japan could get away with retaining Korea and Taiwan with Manchukuo being independent - and Naval disarmament.

This right here is exactly the problem that Japan has with trying to make peace before they are completely and totally destroyed. Basically there was a culture of pressure from below to force the "right" decision on the leadership. Where the "right" decision was decided by a group of young men who didn't have all the information and had been brought up to think that being killed for their cause was better than backing down - even on a national scale.

Then you have the hugely optimistic reporting that has been talked about earlier in this thread so...you have a national leadership who:

1) Started with an impossible plan.
2) Does not have all the information they need because they are being actively and passively mislead by people reporting to them.
3) Even if the information they have is indicating that they should be making peace real-soon-now they would not because of...
4) If they try to change the plan to "make peace" they and/or their family will die because people with less information than they have will kill them until leaders that agree with the "make war until we win" plan are in power.

This happened several times during the lead up to WWII when more moderate politicians came to power and tried to negotiate with the west in good faith. They were killed and more hard-liners were brought in. Basically until it is beyond obvious that Japan has lost to everyone it will be impossible to negotiate peace. Plus if OTL is any indication even when it is beyond obvious that Japan has lost there will be factions that will want to keep fighting to avoid the dishonor of surrender. So it is a very low probability that Japan will negotiate in any meaningful way before they are in a similar position to were they were IOTL.
 
IIRC even some of the Pro-War faction in the military openly said that they expected Japan to lose, they just believed that a "Glorious Failure" was better than taking the diplomatic route.
 
IIRC even some of the Pro-War faction in the military openly said that they expected Japan to lose, they just believed that a "Glorious Failure" was better than taking the diplomatic route.

triple-facepalm.jpg
 
That is a very real possibility but The Allies would then have the option of simply containing Japan once the IJN is either destroyed or its fuel has run out and it's not able to challenge Allied naval supremacy. They would also just keep pumping supplies into Chiang and eventually the Kwantung Army would be defeated, cut off from resources there's no way that Japan could regenerate its military to ore-war levels. This would be a very messy outcome though.

From what people posted the main resource they'd (Kwantung) be cut off would be manpower.
 
The only settlement I can see is the Japanese agreeing to pull out of all recently occupied areas, pull out of China (but keep Manchuria) and pay reparations in the form of declaring war on Germany and sending most of its fleet and a huge army to the Mediterranean to help the Allies. This would require the resignation and prosecution for war crimes of the politicians and generals who were the architects of the war of aggression, and the adoption of a reasonable facsimile of parliamentary democracy. I think you'd see U.S. calls for vengeance wither away if these things were done. The final disposition of Manchuria could be held off until after the war in Europe.
 
The allies are NOT going to want Japan fighting with them against Germany for lots of reasons. Furthermore the Japanese military would be of almost no use against the Germans - the army is essentially infantry with no useful armor and very little artillery & the IJN serves no purpose. The Japanese have already begun to see a drop in pilot quality with their losses, and their aircraft would be eaten up vs the Luftwaffe by & large.

"Operation Starvation" could begin within a year of "now". A combination of submarine attacks, sub laid mines, carrier and surface raids, and B-24's dropping mines before B-29's appear could isolate Japan by mid-1943 almost as well as OTL spring 1945. Even if sea transport to Korea & Manchukuo remains somewhat viable, as noted there won't be anywhere near enough raw materials to sustain any sort of military actions, and food supplies will be inadequate very quickly. With the IJN out of fuel, you can see destroyers/light cruisers being tasked to make sure even fishing boats can't operate - sure you can do Kamikaze attacks but remember they were only effective when you had lots of ships in a confined/restricted known area (invasion fleets) finding and succesfully attacking freely maneuvering light forces just not doable - plus can have heavies bombarding coastal installations freely & a lot of industry, rail lines etc are near coasts in Japan.

Islands/possessions you want to take back like rest of DEI, PI, some Pacific islands, can be reduced at leisure, without offensive striking power (naval/air) places like Truk, Rabual & more can simply be left to rot like OTL even more so. This strategy allows you to get back what you want/need and put Japan under siege using less resources than the OTL campaigns & also with good supply routes the Chinese can be doing better against the Kwantung Army.

Net result is that you can direct more/sooner against the Germans - with the hopefully result that the demarcation line between the west & USSR is further east than OTL, perhaps with German and Austria west occupied with a Russian Sector in Berlin like OTL western sectors, Hungary tripartite occupation & neutralized like OTL Austria, perhaps Czechoslovakia more divided during occupation so when troops leave won't see the 1948 coup...but Poland the sit of the "iron curtain". No matter what, would expect to see Romania & Bulgaria occupied by the USSR & likely Yugoslavia ends up as OTL which was a result more of internal politics than the Red Army. Greece sort of as OTL, perhaps less/no civil war..Albania???

IMHO you won't see japan surrender until the Emperor is convinced its that or see Japan destroyed - while many junior officers were willing to see the whole nation die gloriously, Hirohito was not up for that. If Japan negotiates early probably see Korea & Formosa held, but all Pacific islands (execpt Okinawa etc) gone. The Chinese will want Manchukuo back...
 
If the Pacific War is effectively over by September '42 then that has a lot of implications for the post war allied navies. Ironically given the thread's premises there won't be the same need for fleet carriers so the Essex Class won't be built in the same numbers, there will still be a need for CVE's and CVL's to combat the U Boats but probably fewer big decks. All that steel will probably end up as thousands of extra Shermans and other vehicles :)
 
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