The Whale has Wings

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I'm actually quite seriously considering this for Mac :D

It would be strange putting an American as a ( even ceremonial ) leader of a British occupied nation ... but stranger things have happened in OTL so its not impossible.

I doubt he would be very bad at that post, if he can achieve some sort of cooperation with the British and Austral ... thinking about it a bit more, It´s dead, Jim! It´s dead.
 
With all the talk of if a Doolittle raid will happen in TTL, a thread elsewhere has me wondering about air to air refueling...from what i've read there was a proposal in OTL Jan 42 using PBY's refueling B-24's and another idea to use B24's to refuel B-17's.
 

Ramp-Rat

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The Siamese have unfortunately committed one of the biggest sins in British eyes, up there with eating a man’s dog. They have gone back on their word, which makes them cads and bounders, while also playing to the worst of British prejudice, and will be labelled shifty Orientals. It doesn’t mater what they do, no way is the British establishment going to do a deal with them. They are in a hole, and it doesn’t have a ladder, all they can do is surrender, and hope that the British play nice. As for the Americans, they will at this stage in the war be told, that this isn’t their concern; we have things under control thank-you very much, and do not need any advice from you.

Given the state of play right now, and the lack of American boots on the ground, plus America is more reliant on Britain in the Far East than Britain is on America. After all who controls the only routes to supply Americas poster child, Chiang, oh yes that’s the British. And with all the problems America has right now, the fate of Siam isn’t going to be something the Americans are going to make too much fuss about.

Again not wishing to pre-empt Astrodragon, it is his TL after all, right now I see the basic British plan to be. Once they have established control over the South China Sea, and the DEI, thus securing Australia and New Zealand from possible invasion. They would want to push the Japanese back into Siam, to the narrowest point on the Kra Isthmus, before the onset of the typhoon season. This has a number of advantages from a British perspective. The short line, at just 27miles, means that the British can man it with just a part of the troops they now have available. Thus allowing them to rotate the troops and give everyone some local leave and training in jungle warfare.

This will also allow for the build up of an invasion force, so come the new campaign season, an attack into ether Northern Siam or FIC is possible, once sufficient shipping and landing craft are available. The Japanese have an enormous length of coastline to defend, along with poor to non excitant overland communications, so the British will always be able to achieve local superiority. Without naval intervention, which is looking to be increasingly unlikely, the Japanese have no hope of stopping the British from landing wherever they choose.

Astrodragon you are a naughty boy, you know that there is no way that the British would allow Mac to be appointed as governor of an occupied Siam. If for no other reason, than he would then be in command of British troops in country.

What is interesting is what happens once Borneo is back in British hands. It is only a short distance from there to the most southerly of the Philippine islands, and would provide a good jumping of point. For ether supply missions, to any remaining American forces, still in action, or resistance groups throughout the archipelago.

Anyway, we will have to wait until the outcome of the battles around Java, before we can truly speculate about events in the area.
 
As in FIC so too in China, things here will not be as they were, and we are looking at a very different set up. I am no champion of Generalissimo Chiang; he was without doubt a double dealing, amoral, megalomaniac, who couldn’t be trusted as far as he could be thrown. And his KTM administration was corrupt, ineffectual, and oppressive, and thanks to his paranoia rivern with factional infighting. His habit, of starving his best generals of men and equipment, to prevent them providing a meaningful challenge to his control, didn’t help matters either.

That said at the time he was the only game in town, and was always going to be given the support of the Americans, and surprisingly the Soviets too.

Plus ca change. Change the names, and what you've written here could apply to the regimes of Saddam and Assad.

Regards

R
 
The Siamese have unfortunately committed one of the biggest sins in British eyes, up there with eating a man’s dog. They have gone back on their word, which makes them cads and bounders, while also playing to the worst of British prejudice, and will be labelled shifty Orientals.
If it's the government, sure, but if it's a group led by a notably anti-Japanese figure then it's a bunch of dissenters, not a bunch of cowards. Hells, that was how the Free Thai Movement started.
 
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Pragmatism will rule.

Thailand per se is a distraction. The target is Yamashita's army which is isolated by land communications - raising up Thai's against him helps economise on allied troop commitments.

I would have thought the main objective for the allies will be to defeat Japan with minimum forces while massing troops for the defeat of Germany. As Ramp says shortening the line releases a lot of men and sea power enables them to be projected at will anywhere there is a suitable landing ground.

If/When the IJA is defeated in Malaya having a hostile rear area for him to retreat into is a significant bonus if there is a reasonable prospect of the Thai's rising up and the price of that is rejecting frankly trivial territorial acquisitions the Generals will be pushing to take it - it avoids the complications of having to police the country after an invasion.
 

abc123

Banned
Pragmatism will rule.

Thailand per se is a distraction. The target is Yamashita's army which is isolated by land communications - raising up Thai's against him helps economise on allied troop commitments.

I would have thought the main objective for the allies will be to defeat Japan with minimum forces while massing troops for the defeat of Germany. As Ramp says shortening the line releases a lot of men and sea power enables them to be projected at will anywhere there is a suitable landing ground.

If/When the IJA is defeated in Malaya having a hostile rear area for him to retreat into is a significant bonus if there is a reasonable prospect of the Thai's rising up and the price of that is rejecting frankly trivial territorial acquisitions the Generals will be pushing to take it - it avoids the complications of having to police the country after an invasion.


I agree.
Better to use allready shaky alliance of Japan and Thailand against Japan than to harden it by insisting on annexation and occupation of Thailand.
 
If it's the government, sure, but if it's a group led by a notably anti-Japanese figure then it's a bunch of dissenters, not a bunch of cowards. Hells, that was how the Free Thai Movement started.

This is were the racism comes in. The British will no longer trust the entire Thai system of government, as it's been proved it's not reliable.

Pragmatism will rule.

Exactly. The British priority is not simply to defeat the Japanese, but to preserve the Empire. The best way to do that involves making Thailand an object lesson.

The British have an eye on the post-war situation. They know they'll be in dreadful economic trouble, and so need to minimise the cost of defending Malaya in future. Making sure Thailand can never be a threat again is part of this.

Thailand per se is a distraction. The target is Yamashita's army which is isolated by land communications - raising up Thai's against him helps economise on allied troop commitments.

Not really. Given the logistical situation (and attitudes), then the Thais can't do very much, as the British have no way of supplying them, and, if they had, would prefer to equip their own forces. After all, the British have plenty of Indian and Chinese troops waiting for equipment not very far away.

I would have thought the main objective for the allies will be to defeat Japan with minimum forces while massing troops for the defeat of Germany. As Ramp says shortening the line releases a lot of men and sea power enables them to be projected at will anywhere there is a suitable landing ground.

You'd think that, but in grand strategic terms, that's not in British interests at all. Defeating the Japanese too soon makes it much harder for them to resist Soviet demands and American desires to launch a premature invasion of Europe.

If/When the IJA is defeated in Malaya having a hostile rear area for him to retreat into is a significant bonus if there is a reasonable prospect of the Thai's rising up and the price of that is rejecting frankly trivial territorial acquisitions the Generals will be pushing to take it - it avoids the complications of having to police the country after an invasion.

Firstly, the IJA won't be able to retreat in significant numbers. They're facing a mechanised enemy whilst they're on foot that will be able to make amphibious leapfrogs to get behind them.

Second, it's not up to the generals. The British can also cheaply garrison Thailand after conquering it with second line Indian divisions. Part of the point of this is having to police the country, as it allows you to essentially create a new government from scratch.

Third, I think there may not be time for the Thais to switch sides. If the the trap for the IJA in Malaya is successfully closed Yashimata's army is going to implode, and there's going to be precious little to stop the British simply rolling all the way up the Isthmus until they reach Burma and then sitting there. They don't need to take the rest of Thailand then, they can just base aircraft in the captured Thai fields and sink anything hostile that moves in the Gulf of Siam.
 
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perfectgeneral

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I agree.
Better to use allready shaky alliance of Japan and Thailand against Japan than to harden it by insisting on annexation and occupation of Thailand.
I disagree. Better or not, this is not an ISOT of OTL advisers back to do the best thing. If the intention was originally to take the Malay parts of Siam then, unless something changes to stop it, that must happen.

Occupation of Malay South Kra Siam won't take much in the way of forces. A narrow front and Malayan police behind it. If any forces are to be bottled up in Siam and FIC an invasion in Northern FIC and/or a negotiated landing at Fort Bayard will cut supply and egress to far more Japanese forces.
 

perfectgeneral

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This is were the racism comes in. The British will no longer trust the entire Thai system of government, as it's been proved it's not reliable...

Exactly. The British priority is not simply to defeat the Japanese, but to preserve the Empire. The best way to do that involves making Thailand an object lesson...

The British have an eye on the post-war situation. They know they'll be in dreadful economic trouble, and so need to minimise the cost of defending Malaya in future. Making sure Thailand can never be a threat again is part of this...

...The British can also cheaply garrison Thailand after conquering it with second line Indian divisions. Part of the point of this is having to police the country, as it allows you to essentially create a new government from scratch.

The government of Siam might change, but the Royal family will stay, for continuity, stability and royal deference. I'd say a cordon between Malay Kra (ceded to Malaya) and the rest. Siam gets a military government with Indian garrison and some of the ANZ forces on the Siam FIC border. The ceded part of Kra might need some Singapore/Malay territorial units as well as police.

While Japan and Britain are the colonial players here, Malaya has been invaded by Siam, so ceding a region with the right ethnicity and self identity seems acceptable on the world stage. This may help stabilise the region in future.

Satun is one of the four provinces of Thailand which have a Muslim majority: 67.8% are Muslim and 31.9% are Buddhists. Most of the Muslims have some ethnic-Malay ancestry, though only 9.9% of the population claims to be ethnically Malay.
Souththailandmap.GIF

Taking the three southern districts is justifiable. Satun might work, but there isn't the same demand. Besides, the mountain range south of Satun makes a great border. Maybe redraw the mountain border to ensure good defence.

I'm not sure about the disputed or mixed areas of southern Songkhla (Thepha (Malay: Tiba)Saba Yoi (Malay: Sebayu)). The trouble with disputed areas is, well...that they are disputed. They would offer a more mountainous border. The only open plain on the border would then be south west of Sadao. A likely trade area.
 
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The government of Siam might change, but the Royal family will stay, for continuity, stability and royal deference.

Siam was renamed Thailand in 1939. I suspect that the name may get changed back though.

I'd say a cordon between Malay Kra (ceded to Malaya) and the rest. Siam gets a military government with Indian garrison and some of the ANZ forces on the Siam FIC border. The ceded part of Kra might need some Singapore/Malay territorial units as well as police.

While Japan and Britain are the colonial players here, Malaya has been invaded by Siam, so ceding a region with the right ethnicity seems acceptable on the world stage.

The plan iOTL was to essentially draw a line east from the most northern part of Malaya to where the western border of Pattani meets the sea, and directly annex that to Malaya, whilst demilitarising all of the Thailand south of the middle of Prachuap Khiri Khan and taking permanent de facto administrative control, whilst leaving them de jure Thai.

This would be as part of a general occupation of Thailand, as happened to Germany and Japan post war iOTL.
 

perfectgeneral

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Siam was renamed Thailand in 1939. I suspect that the name may get changed back though.



The plan iOTL was to essentially draw a line east from the most northern part of Malaya to where the western border of Pattani meets the sea, and directly annex that to Malaya, whilst demilitarising all of the Thailand south of the middle of Prachuap Khiri Khan and taking permanent de facto administrative control, whilst leaving them de jure Thai.

This would be as part of a general occupation of Thailand, as happened to Germany and Japan post war iOTL.
Yes, 'Siam' is a given.

Prachuap Khiri Khan is the area I would expect an amphibious landing to go in to cut off the Japanese army. So a demilitarised zone for south of there makes sense and would be enforced once the Kra is cut off.

The border sounds crazy and I hope that practical considerations prevail. See map below. I've marked the 'line across' border in green and the Thepha & Saba Yoi border shaded in red (Sadao and Hat Yai are shaded too for reference).

Does the proposed (green on map) line include Satun by extending west from the most northerly point too? Lines on maps rarely bring peaceful borders. You may as well draw a line at Hat Yai and have a really short border (please don't!). I suspect that the compromise on the ground will be to cede Sadao, Na Thawi, Sabo Yoi and Thepha from Songkhla Province (the green line plus the rest of Thepha basically). Ethnic unrest continues...

Edit: I'm proposing that the purple line would be the most peaceful border. 'Rescuing' the Malay territory completely puts the Empire in good books with Malaya and Singapore. The infrastructure to administrate this is already in place aside from border control. The two 'new' districts in the Khlong Thepha river basin just move to Pattani or Yala province as seems best (one each probably).

KraBorder2.JPG
 
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GarethC

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The government of Siam might change, but the Royal family will stay, for continuity, stability and royal deference.
Unless I missed a butterfly, the King of Siam is like 14 and at school in Switzerland.

The Regent is the civil PM, but he is largely sidelined by the Defence minister Phibun, who promoted himself from Lieutenant-General to Field Marshal (the bounder!) and decided that he should supplant the monarchy as the recipient of the people's adulation through a cult of personality.
 

abc123

Banned
IMO all of you do not think about one thing: the fact that, if no Japanese invasion, Thailand wouldn't be any danger for Britain/Malaya.
So if we defeat Japan, we will defeat party in Thailand that wanted to take parts of other countries too.
That's the reason why I don't see the need for annexing/occupying Thailand.

If you wan't to annex some parts of Thailand ( that might even make good to Thailand ) than I would take yellow areas on that map ( where Malayans are the majority ) and half of those mixed areas. In mixed areas offer to resettle all those that want to stay on the other side of the border. That's pretty fair solution IMO.
 

perfectgeneral

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Unless I missed a butterfly, the King of Siam is like 14 and at school in Switzerland.

The Regent is the civil PM, but he is largely sidelined by the Defence minister Phibun, who promoted himself from Lieutenant-General to Field Marshal (the bounder!) and decided that he should supplant the monarchy as the recipient of the people's adulation through a cult of personality.

That's the fella. A puppet king at this stage, but the aim is for a democratic monarchy anyway.
 

perfectgeneral

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IMO all of you do not think about one thing: the fact that, if no Japanese invasion, Thailand wouldn't be any danger for Britain/Malaya.
So if we defeat Japan, we will defeat party in Thailand that wanted to take parts of other countries too.
That's the reason why I don't see the need for annexing/occupying Thailand.

If you wan't to annex some parts of Thailand ( that might even make good to Thailand ) than I would take yellow areas on that map ( where Malayans are the majority ) and half of those mixed areas. In mixed areas offer to resettle all those that want to stay on the other side of the border. That's pretty fair solution IMO.

Pretty much the purple border. Which I added after your post, but before reading it. So we seem to agree. Or are you ruling out Thepha and Sab Yoi? Cutting them in half seems to be a burden on the administrative district system in place. I put a geographic consideration into the purple border in that there is some high ground to hold on the border for each side and the border is shorter. Perhaps we should have a plebiscite in Thepha and Sab Yoi?

If we included the north-western border areas of Khok Pho, Kabang and Yaha in the plebiscites too, what if things turned chequerboard? What fun! There should be limits on the fineness of detail to self-determination. Or each man would be an island.

How about Saba Yoi goes to Malaya, but Thepha stays in Songkhla, Siam? Lots of moving families and the northern border is more open in landscape.

KraBorder3.JPG
 
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