The Whale has Wings

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Of course for there to be a crisis the Navy would have to tell the Army what was going on (and vice versa) and i can't see either of them being eager to do that.(1)

Bioweapons are out Dragons don't do megadeath (except by fire ofc). Pre war the USN was quite confident they could starve japan into surrender. They probably don't realise how literal that would be.(2)

1) Too true. Even the facts of MIDWAY didn't reach Tojo's desk until one full month later!:eek: Every time I mope about problems of WWII US Army and Navy rivalry, I remember about this, and I feel pretty good.:)

2) Of course, sitting in their warm comfy offices, those war planners didn't consider the consequences of all those PoWs rotting away in Japan, and the overwhelming political pressures forcing an invasion to free them. Yes, many of them would be killed by the Kempetai and army, but many more would survive to liberation, once the Allies broke out from the Coronet landing zones. The real problem with the invasion is, more Allied troops will die than can ever be saved in the camps.:(

But still, just as more lives are saved by the Bomb rather than by invasion, so too are more lives saved by invasion than by blockade. That formula only changes if the Japanese militarists see reason. Lotsa Luck.:(
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
There are a number of very interesting points being razed about both, the post war world in regard to the colonies, and events in regard to what happens about Japan, once the Japanese are forced back to the Home Islands.

Starting with the colonies in the post war world. The first thing to remember is that they are not going to be “liberated” as they were IOTL, after the collapse and surrender of the Japanese. Or having been freed of their colonial rulers, for a number of years, thus enabling locals to assume positions of power, under Japanese tutorage. With all the problems that, that entailed, for the returning colonial masters, in reasserting their control.

ITTL, other than FIC, all of the colonial possessions have been fought over, and while there has been short periods when the colonial masters have lost control of an area, it has never been long enough to allow locals to assume power in any significant way. In fact all it has done is allow a few hot heads to stick the head over the parapet, and become targets for the colonial forces.

Nor as usertron2020 said is there going to be major problems with people in the homelands angry about forces fighting in the colonies instead of trying to liberate the homeland. We must remember that as far as the majority of people in the homelands were concerned, the colonies were theirs, and they would expect the local forces to fight to retain them. Also, it is often forgotten, that unlike the British, both the French and Dutch, had two armies, a home army mostly made up of conscripts, who were forbidden to serve in the colonies. And a colonial army, an all volunteer force, who were not expected to serve in the homeland. Both the Free French forces and the Dutch forces fighting in the Far East are predominately colonial troops, and this is where they are expected to fight.

In the case of FIC, if it is liberated after a land campaign, things are going to be very different. The void in administration that happened IOTL will not now happen, nor will there be a need to use as there was Japanese forces post surrender to enforce law and order. Instead as areas are cleared of the Japanese, the military forces will establish first a military government, and then a civil government, to control their rear areas.

With regard to independence movements, other than an educated urban elite, the majority of the colonial peoples had far more important, to them, things to worry about, mostly where their next meal was coming from. We must not forget, that in the days before mass media, if you were a peasant grubbing a precarious living from a small patch of land, illiterate and will no access to mass media, i.e., radio or film, what did you know of what was happening, other than what you heard on the local grapevine. Your major concerns were would there be enough food to eat, and could you afford to pay of the local moneylender. There were parts of all the colonial empires that never saw a white man, didn’t have a clue, who was running the country, and basically didn’t give a dam.

And as I have already said, not everyone saw the colonial masters as oppressors; many saw them as their protectors against the indigenous majority who they believed would oppress them far more than the colonials did. In each and every colony there were significant minorities who believed that they had far more to fear from their majority neighbours than they did from colonials. These peoples can be roughly divided into two groups, indigenous and immigrants.

If we look at just Burma, the hill tribes had no love for the Burmese, who the saw as oppressors and are in some cases still to this day fighting against. Then you had the large number of Indian and Chinese immigrants, brought in as coolie labour, to do work that the Burmese wouldn’t. Many had by dint of hard work and much sacrifice bought out their indenture, and set themselves up as small business men, much to the annoyance of the Burmese. And this picture can be seen all across the various colonies, with in many cases the added friction of religion to add to the pot.

As for Japan, without the bomb, things there will be very difficult, the leadership are not able to admit they got it wrong, and surrender, they will want to fight to the bitter end. And so the allies are left with two options, starve the Japanese into submission or invade. Nether option will lead to a post war Japan, which is able to recover in the way it did. There will be far more resentment and haltered than there was. At the end of the day, the bomb, allowed both sides to make a much better peace than they would have, had ether of the two other options be the road to the end.

Right just to sling something else into the mix, China, does it go communist, become a split nation, half and half in perpetual conflict, or do the nationalists take control? And what of Korea, one nation or two? Not forgetting Tibet, if the communists do not gain control of China, does Tibet retain its independence?
 

Ramp-Rat

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Usertron2020, what large numbers of POW’s in Japan? ITTL, other then the American captured in the Philippines, far, far fewer troops have been captured, and those that have, given how tight shipping space is for the Japanese, I do not see large numbers being shipped to Japan. I believe that by the time Japan id isolated, you would be looking a few hundred POW’s, not the thousands that were seen IOTL.
 
Ramp-Rat

I'd see a united Korea, but with the same problems as OTL in terms of the ROK regime being what it was until recent years.:( As to China? To quote Harry Truman, Chaing's thugs couldn't fight their way out of a whorehouse. Not compared to the PLA.
 

abc123

Banned
And how do you deploy them? They need to be launched via large slow air transports, which have a hard problem getting through all those radar-supported fighters. Hence, no air superiority (Hell, they'd be facing air supremacy!), no biowarfare. Anyway, I really think all this talk of Axis WMDs is moot. Everything I've seen from Astrodragon's writing tells me he's not setting us up for Armageddon.

With this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400_class_submarine

They had 3 aircrafts on board that can be used for that
 

abc123

Banned
Not forgetting Tibet, if the communists do not gain control of China, does Tibet retain its independence?


IMO no, any Chinese government that is able to effectivly govern China will never give independence to Tibet. RoC doesn't even recognises independence of Mongolia NOW..:eek:
Amount of authonomy of Tibet is another thing trough...
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Usertroon2020, I freely admit I am not an expert on China, there are others on this bored who are far better informed than I. I do however remember reading that it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that the communist forces would win. There were among the nationalist forces some very good by local standard units, and events could have for a time gone ether way. We are ITTL entering a very different world, one where the Japanese in China, are going to find themselves facing better equipped nationalist, while themselves are being more scantly supplied. I will be interested to see the thoughts of those who are better able than I to comment on this area.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Abc123, I am not talking about giving independence to Tibet, at this time it was independent, ruled by the Dali Llama, just because the Chinese clamed it to be a part of China, didn’t mean that the rest of the world accepted it.
 

abc123

Banned
Abc123, I am not talking about giving independence to Tibet, at this time it was independent, ruled by the Dali Llama, just because the Chinese clamed it to be a part of China, didn’t mean that the rest of the world accepted it.

Well the rest of the world did accept that and accept's that as a fact even today...



29 October 2008 - HMG recognizes Tibet as an integral part of the PRC. It had previously only recognized Chinese "suzerainty" (supremacy over the local ruler) over the region.[24]

I don't know how could someone in modern days consider suzerainty as independence...
 
With this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400_class_submarine

They had 3 aircrafts on board that can be used for that

Uh, no they don't.:rolleyes: WWII ended before that design could be used in combat. ITTL, that record can hardly be better. And with Yamamoto being essentially the only driving force behind the development of those "aircraft carrier submarines", I don't think that under the circumstances of TTL he will enjoy the continuing influence and power he did OTL. Time after time that project was cancelled and time after time he had to personally intercede to force it back into development. The use of those aircraft to bomb the locks of the Panama Canal were a personal obsession of his.

To use them to to deliver biowarfare or chemical attacks? Too small a payload on those aircraft. They represent a terror weapon of limited utility, that's all. Japan's pie-in-the-sky plans for using their bioweapons involved using large super-long range bombers that they had never even begun to develop. The irony is, the two operational carrier subs sent out on their first mission (to Ulithi, not Panama or the CONUS) were recalled when Japan surrendered.
 
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abc123

Banned
Uh, no they don't.:rolleyes: WWII ended before that design could be used in combat. ITTL, that record can hardly be better. And with Yamamoto being essentially the only driving force behind the development of those "aircraft carrier submarines", I don't think that under the circumstances of TTL he will enjoy the continuing influence and power he did OTL. Time after time that project was cancelled and time after time he had to personally intercede to force it back into development. The use of those aircraft to bomb the locks of the Panama Canal were a personal obsession of his.

To use them to to deliver biowarfare or chemical attacks? Too small a payload on those aircraft. They represent a terror weapon of limited utility, that's all. Japan's pie-in-the-sky plans for using their bioweapons involved using large super-long range bombers that they never had never even begun to develop. The irony is, the two operational carrier subs sent out on their first mission (to Ulithi, not Panama or the CONUS) was recalled when Japan surrendered.


Well, will they be finished in time to take part in operations I don't know, but if Japan decides to use their chemicah/biological arsenal they will surely build them.
Yes, they are small-scale terror weapon, but in Japanese opinion, considering that Americans are cowards, they don't need more than small push to surrender..
 

perfectgeneral

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About Garrison's "Post"

That was NOT his writing, It was MINE.:mad: I'm going to assume he misplaced the quote barriers when he responded to my post himself, since he's a nice guy and would never intentionally plagiarize someone.:eek: And admittedly, I HAVE made the same mistake myself in the past.:eek:

As to your suggestion, not bad. Not bad at all. But I think the Doolittle Raid is going to happen well after the carrier battles.
Since the Doolittle raid was about being seen to hurt Japan. Might a large naval victory butterfly the whole raid away?
 
Ramp-Rat

The key to understanding China as it was in WWII is boiled down to a few simple issues.

First, the limitless corruption of the KMT at all levels (with a few pointed exceptions) almost from its birth. As opposed to the unknown of the Chinese Communists. After years of seeing double-dealing between the Japanese and elements of the KMT (switching sides back-and forth) versus the unswerving opposition of the CCP against Japan... The inability of Chaing to accept the Communists as true allies while they in turn were willing to cooperate with the KMT provided it meant driving out the Japanese (with full confidence that they, the PLA, would emergent triumphant in the final showdown)...

Also, there is the little matter of the CCP being able postwar to draw on military supplies from the USSR.

Mao was able to win the people over with his promises. Promises that AFAIK Chaing wasn't even bothering to offer, much less deliver. And Mao DID deliver on one promise. He was the first man to truly unify China. If he had died in 1957, he would probably be remembered as a more eccentric Chinese Lenin.

When Pol Pot took over in Cambodia, it was in the belief by the general populace that whatever he was, he couldn't be worse than the dictatorship of the Lon Nol Regime. [SIZE=-4]the people were wrong...[/SIZE]:eek:

IMVHO, speculating about Chaing holding on to the mainland, even in part, would be like speculating that Louis XVI could "win" the French Revolution.:rolleyes:
 
Since the Doolittle raid was about being seen to hurt Japan. Might a large naval victory butterfly the whole raid away?

Only if FDR chokes to death on his morning Cheerios[SIZE=-4](tm)[/SIZE]

This was his brainchild, his baby. And planning and training would be, IOTL & ITTL, well underway. If something on the order of Coral Sea, Midway, and Philippine Sea happened all in the same week, the Doolittle Raid STILL would take place. If only to really rub it in.:D
 
Well, will they be finished in time to take part in operations I don't know, but if Japan decides to use their chemicah/biological arsenal they will surely build them.
Yes, they are small-scale terror weapon, but in Japanese opinion, considering that Americans are cowards, they don't need more than small push to surrender..

By the time they could be built, the Japanese had been long since disabused of that notion. That's why they only built two of them. These were planes of fighter size. All six planes together would make the ordnance load of just ONE B-17.:rolleyes:
 
It remains my opinion that if the Allies approach FIC by any route, be it north through Burma or south via liberating Thailand, they are going to perforce enter into cooperative relations with the Viet Minh, regardless of Free French protests. The VM are the only effective resistance forces on the ground, they will be too useful an asset for British or American commanders to consider foregoing; if at French insistence or out of the strong anti-Communist feelings of British or Americans the Allies rebuff the VM, they will find the task of liberating Indochina on their terms alone much more difficult, because they'd not only not have the benefit of VM assistance, they'd be simultaneously fighting both the Japanese and Ho Chi Minh!:eek: Perhaps by the time such invasions are at hand, Allied strength will be such that they can win against both handily enough, but it seems quite likely to me that realistic war planners will seek to minimize their immediate problems and maximize advantages and that the Viet Minh will be seen as an asset to be cultivated during the war, with any consequences deferred until after it.

Possibly if FIC is approached a third way, by seaborne invasion, there might be no prior contact with the VM and the invasion planned and for the most part prosecuted as though the VM did not exist. However that would be an awfully sloppy war plan I'd think, again realism would suggest some sort of arrangement would be worked out with Ho in advance of such a bold and risky operation.

If the Allied armies approach by land, there is no question there would be contact and some sort of mutual assessment would happen.

The main way then for the war to be fought to a conclusion without there having been cooperative relations established with the Viet Minh would be if FIC were bypassed completely. If the matter of coming to terms with Ho would prove to be such a political hot potato with the Free French that it threatens the alliance, that might be the solution to the problem.

Otherwise, if liberation of FIC is in the cards, the Viet Minh are going to get a hearing and probably a deal of some sort. They are too powerful and alternative local or French allies too weak for it to be otherwise.

I think much the same reasoning applies in the case of Yugoslavia and Tito. I've seen argument here that other partisan forces could have been in a stronger position if the Allies had supported them more and Tito less, and that might be, but I am skeptical--I think the British and to a much lesser extent the Americans did support Tito OTL because he was their best bet for victory, and the same will be true here.

But in Indochina I don't think there is anyone who comes even as close as Tito's rivals did in Yugoslavia; Ho's game is the only game in town other than sheer brute invading force and an ongoing forceful occupation, at a time when the Allies have other things to be doing.

China might be a bit different because unlike Indochina, where only the French will be much concerned with the post-war deal, everyone cares what happens in China postwar. Therefore it doesn't seem inconceivable to me that the Western Allies would expend considerable energy and treasure to try to support some version of a Nationalist government there. Perhaps they might insist that Chiang step down and leave China; conceivably assassins would make sure he "leaves" China and everyplace else for good. Or Chiang might offer some deal that gives the Allies enough control to set them at ease with his continued nominal leadership. All these efforts might still be in vain to be sure! But if the Western Allies enter China in force, it will be to back some kind of KMT regime, and whereever they march it will be under the Nationalist flag. They might not insist on actually taking anything from Mao that Mao could actually take and hold.

Since I don't expect Mao to give up anything at anyone's order, not even Stalin's, and even if Mao is himself assassinated or otherwise killed due to butterflies I expect his comrades in his faction to fight on, I guess I'm saying an Allied invasion of China will lead to a partitioned China. How likely the division is to last depends on how strong and stable the two local regimes are; we know the Communists were determined and persistent but we don't know how tenacious they could be while running only half the country. We know how feckless and incompetent Chiang and his hangers-on were, but not the caliber of what a regime set up with broad and deep Allied support on the ground, moving systematically from their first invasion and methodically out from there. Given the respective natures of the Communists and Nationalists OTL I'd predict a Communist takeover as soon as the Western Allies turned their backs. But it might be different here, the Western-liberated south might hang on or with enough support might even take back the whole country. If that is the Anglo-Americans do a decent job recruiting reasonably competent and trustworthy people to the Nationalist regime, purging it of the most useless elements, and then also follow through with serious military aid on a sustained basis and continue to demand and get serious governance from the new Nationalists.

I wouldn't bet on it, for one thing the sheer cost is against it, as would be the difficulty of finding good people still willing to stand up for the Nationalists.

But it might happen, ITTL.
 
I don't think Dathi's post refers to Axis biological weapons at all, unless I'm having a really slow morning... :confused:

Correct. I was saying that dropping epidemic disease on japan to add to the misery would be easyish to do. IF you had weaponized epidemic disease.

This would be a HORRIBLE thing to do, and im glad the allies dont have the germs, because otherwise theyd be tempted.

Japans air defenses by that point would be shredded.

Of course, the germs would escape, as someone else pointed out. So even if the allies had vaccinations for the mutant virus, thered be millions of civilian deaths in eg china.

So, yes it would be EVIL. And STUPID.

Unfortunately, that doesnt necessarily stop governments. Sigh./
 
I agree with the comments about Ho. The brits are going to have enough problem ousting the japanese from malayasia and indonesia, to use anachronistic labels.

Once the allies have secured access to the resources there, and denied them to the japanese, there will be huge pressure to redeploy the bulk of the forces back to eurpe, back to the main fight.

The us will want free the philiipines and china, and wont be interested in recovering frances coloniaal empire for her.

So, what i see is lots of smuggling of weapons in, by land and by sea, but only a minor effort, if any, at an actual allied invasion.

This could encorage ho to tone down his communist rhetoric, and increase the natiionalist tone, which would help him post war.
 
Since the Doolittle raid was about being seen to hurt Japan. Might a large naval victory butterfly the whole raid away?

Not a chance. It was Roosevelt's pet project and the psychological impact of bombs dropping on Tokyo was simply too great to ignore. It was a huge morale booster for the US public and it was a humiliating shock for the Japanese. Bear in mind that the Japanese public were not told about what happened at battles like Midway so far away naval defeats simply wouldn't have the same effect.
 
Correct. I was saying that dropping epidemic disease on japan to add to the misery would be easyish to do. IF you had weaponized epidemic disease.

This would be a HORRIBLE thing to do, and im glad the allies dont have the germs, because otherwise theyd be tempted.

Japans air defenses by that point would be shredded.

Of course, the germs would escape, as someone else pointed out. So even if the allies had vaccinations for the mutant virus, thered be millions of civilian deaths in eg china.

So, yes it would be EVIL. And STUPID.

Unfortunately, that doesnt necessarily stop governments. Sigh./

The allies (Specifically Britain) kinda do have the germs, it's just they'd planned to use them on the event of a chemical or biological attack on the country or somesuch.

Anthrax is horrifying.
 
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