The Whale has Wings

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By the way...

The timing is going to be the issue, but can you imagine the response in Tokyo if Japan were to suffer losing two carrier battles, a land defeat in Java, a British attack in Malaya, and Tokyo being bombed, all in the same week?

About Garrison's "Post"

That was NOT his writing, It was MINE.:mad: I'm going to assume he misplaced the quote barriers when he responded to my post himself, since he's a nice guy and would never intentionally plagiarize someone.:eek: And admittedly, I HAVE made the same mistake myself in the past.:eek:

As to your suggestion, not bad. Not bad at all. But I think the Doolittle Raid is going to happen well after the carrier battles.
 
About Garrison's "Post"

That was NOT his writing, It was MINE.:mad: I'm going to assume he misplaced the quote barriers when he responded to my post himself, since he's a nice guy and would never intentionally plagiarize someone.:eek: And admittedly, I HAVE made the same mistake myself in the past.:eek:

Exactly what happened, sorry about that.:eek: I've edited the post so all the quotes should be in the right place.
 
The timing is going to be the issue, but can you imagine the response in Tokyo if Japan were to suffer losing two carrier battles, a land defeat in Java, a British attack in Malaya, and Tokyo being bombed, all in the same week?

Well having made it clear that the quote you were referring to was actually from Usertron2020 I would say that it's going to create a huge leadership crisis. After all the Army and the Navy will both have been humiliated and each will doubtless be trying to blame the other for the situation. That means the knives will be out and in WWII Japanese politics that isn't just a figure of speech. The only thing that you can be fairly sure of is that Japan will not seek out peace terms and they will try to find ways to wear down the US will to fight; probably leading to an earlier adoption of suicide tactics.
 
Hmm... Are you really sure that defeats that early will not shock Japan enough to be at least partially more reasonable? If they loose at Java sea, then most of their victories will be undone by the end of spring, such a swift defeat may easily be shocking.

And there is another factor. When you look at some of Japaneese reports from their operations, they claimed that US Navy sustained some truly absurd looses, justifying continuus existance of ships by overestimating new production. With those estimates, Japan actually could expect that US will be too exhausted to carry out invasion, especially if Japan forces believed efficiency would continue. Here they have no such excuse. If RN will show 8 carriers in Tokyo Bay in august 1942, then Japan command will know that its only because they never sunk any of them. This could affect their stance on accepting peace or even surrender
 
Booming leads to banging I like that.

A poor father raising three daughters feels guilty that he can't provide for them, and is taking food out of their mouths by having even MORE children, hence efforts at contraception. The same father who becomes a success and can provide very well for those same daughters will find himself thinking: "I MUST HAVE SONS!":cool:
 
Hmm... Are you really sure that defeats that early will not shock Japan enough to be at least partially more reasonable? If they loose at Java sea, then most of their victories will be undone by the end of spring, such a swift defeat may easily be shocking.

And there is another factor. When you look at some of Japaneese reports from their operations, they claimed that US Navy sustained some truly absurd looses, justifying continuus existance of ships by overestimating new production. With those estimates, Japan actually could expect that US will be too exhausted to carry out invasion, especially if Japan forces believed efficiency would continue. Here they have no such excuse. If RN will show 8 carriers in Tokyo Bay in august 1942, then Japan command will know that its only because they never sunk any of them. This could affect their stance on accepting peace or even surrender

Well since the only way the RN is going to be parking carriers in Tokyo Bay is by completely crushing all Japanese resistance then yes you are probably right. ITTL, and any that isn't ASB, its highly unlikely they will reach that point before late '43 and then it might be a year of blockade and starvation before the Japanese give up.
Bear in mind that OTL Japan started a war it knew it couldn't win and carried it on even after the Home Islands were blockaded and large parts of her cities were incinerated. It took two atom bombs and a Soviet declaration of war to get them to surrender, and even then some of them wanted to fight on.
 
Hmm... Are you really sure that defeats that early will not shock Japan enough to be at least partially more reasonable?(1) If they lose at Java sea, then most of their victories will be undone by the end of spring, such a swift defeat may easily be shocking.

And there is another factor. When you look at some of Japanese reports from their operations, they claimed that US Navy sustained some truly absurd losses,(2) justifying the continuing existence of "lost" ships by overestimating new production. With those estimates, Japan actually could expect that the US will be too exhausted to carry out an invasion of the Home Islands,(3) especially if Japan forces believed efficiency would continue.(4) Here they have no such excuse. If RN will show 8 carriers in Tokyo Bay in august 1942,(5) then Japan command will know that its only because they never sunk any of them. This could affect their stance on accepting peace or even surrender (6)

1) Positive. It's the ARMY, not the Navy who are calling the shots. They went into the war KNOWING they would lose if the enemy did not oblige them by giving up.:rolleyes:

2) Poor USS North Carolina. Sunk five times.:p Yet IRL not one US or British BB sunk in all of the Pacific War save for the opening three days...

3) They never really seemed to take into account the effects of reinforcements from Europe once Hitler blew out his brains, nor the fact that ground forces casualties for the Allies in the Pacific were far milder than they were for Japan.

4) :confused::confused::confused:???

5) I'm assuming that year was a typo?:eek: Or is this one of Winston's "Bright Ideas?" Because an order to Somerville to sail into Tokyo Bay would see a mutiny (probably led by Somerville HIMSELF, if he hasn't resigned already) at a level not seen since the days of the French Revolution and Napoleon!:( Does the Cabinet have Winston put away for his own good?:p

6) See (1). The IJA's generals' capacity for narcotic self-deception was so extreme that almost any level of firepower applied against them could be shrugged off. But not the fires of an atomic blast.:eek:

EDIT: Ninja'd by Garrison:(
 
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Well since the only way the RN is going to be parking carriers in Tokyo Bay is by completely crushing all Japanese resistance then yes you are probably right. ITTL, and any that isn't ASB, its highly unlikely they will reach that point before late '43 and then it might be a year of blockade and starvation before the Japanese give up.
Bear in mind that OTL Japan started a war it knew it couldn't win and carried it on even after the Home Islands were blockaded and large parts of her cities were incinerated. It took two atom bombs and a Soviet declaration of war to get them to surrender, and even then some of them wanted to fight on.

Hmm- that could be one way that TTL turns out worse than OTL, if a better Allied performance in the Pacific gets them to the shores & Japan before the Bomb is ready, leaving a choice between invasion or the more likely & rational blockade and bombardment strategies- mixed with the fanaticism in the Japanese military, that could get... ugly:eek:
 
Hmm- that could be one way that TTL turns out worse than OTL, if a better Allied performance in the Pacific gets them to the shores & Japan before the Bomb is ready, leaving a choice between invasion or the more likely & rational blockade and bombardment strategies- mixed with the fanaticism in the Japanese military, that could get... ugly:eek:

And of course there's all that anthrax the British didn't use against the Germans...:eek::eek:
 
Well since the only way the RN is going to be parking carriers in Tokyo Bay is by completely crushing all Japanese resistance then yes you are probably right. ITTL, and anyway that is ASB, its highly unlikely they will reach that point before late '44 and then it might be a year of blockade and starvation before the Japanese give up.
Bear in mind that OTL Japan started a war it knew it couldn't win and carried it on even after the Home Islands were blockaded and large parts of her cities were incinerated. It took two atom bombs and a Soviet declaration of war to get them to surrender, and even then some of them wanted to fight on.

Fixed it for you.:eek: Against JAPAN alone I'd agree with you. But there is the little matter of a couple more Axis countries to dealt with on the other side of the world. Europe will become a sinkhole for the British war effort even with America mobilizing and a "Europe First" strategy that Winston supported whole-heartedly.

The war effort against Japan by the European powers has to be limited to protection of (or in the case of France) of regaining of lost territories. And I wonder how the people back home in German-occupied France and Holland will feel about news (and German propaganda) regarding French and Dutch forces expending their blood and treasure in far away lands while home, mom, Dutch apple pie, and Burgundy wine suffer under the Germans?

WE may know the good reasons why the Free French and Free Dutch are doing so, but politics is always about perception, and I don't think the average Pierre and William on the streets of Paris and the Hague will be so ready to understand that.:(
 
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And of course there's all that anthrax the British didn't use against the Germans...:eek::eek:

NO. Just NO. Nukes are one thing, but weaponized anthrax turns the land its used on into irredeemable desert. And this, in a country that is scarcely able to feed itself in the best of times.
 
Hmm- that could be one way that TTL turns out worse than OTL, if a better Allied performance in the Pacific gets them to the shores & Japan before the Bomb is ready, leaving a choice between invasion or the more likely & rational blockade and bombardment strategies- mixed with the fanaticism in the Japanese military, that could get... ugly:eek:

Seconded. Which is why once Astrodragon emasculates the IJN and reclaims the lost European territories, I think the TL will turn back to a Euro-centric one, leaving the War against Japan to the Americans.
 
NO. Just NO. Nukes are one thing, but weaponized anthrax turns the land its used on into irredeemable desert. And this, in a country that is scarcely able to feed itself in the best of times.

A lot may depend on how nasty things get before the Japanese military is driven back to the home islands, they did have their own bio-weapons program. I'm not saying I think it's likely. The most likely outcome is blockade, bombing, and slow starvation, none of which is going to be pretty.
 
A lot may depend on how nasty things get before the Japanese military is driven back to the home islands, they did have their own bio-weapons program. I'm not saying I think it's likely. The most likely outcome is blockade, bombing, and slow starvation, none of which is going to be pretty.

The problem is, bioweapons are weapons used by the side with air superiority. Both the Japanese AND the Germans could not even consider its usage. When you HAVE air superiority, it's an impediment to your victorious advancing armies. When you don't have air superiority, you can't use it at all. Then there is the little matter of which side has the better (and more of) protective gear. Bioweapons are a "well, if THEY use 'em" weapons, not a first strike weapon. And they don't respect uniforms.
 
The problem is, bioweapons are weapons used by the side with air superiority. Both the Japanese AND the Germans could not even consider its usage. When you HAVE air superiority, it's an impediment to your victorious advancing armies. When you don't have air superiority, you can't use it at all. Then there is the little matter of which side has the better (and more of) protective gear. Bioweapons are a "well, if THEY use 'em" weapons, not a first strike weapon. And they don't respect uniforms.

Of course, youre assuming your armies are advancing. If japan were to be defeated by blockade and starvation, bioweapons could be added to the mix, if the allies were being particularly nasty. Of course, in that case, you dont want anthrax, but rather eg weaponized smallpox.

Maybe its a good thing the allies didnt have anything like that.
 
Of course, youre assuming your armies are advancing. If japan were to be defeated by blockade and starvation, bioweapons could be added to the mix, if the allies were being particularly nasty. Of course, in that case, you dont want anthrax, but rather eg weaponized smallpox.

Maybe its a good thing the allies didnt have anything like that.

And how do you deploy them? They need to be launched via large slow air transports, which have a hard problem getting through all those radar-supported fighters. Hence, no air superiority (Hell, they'd be facing air supremacy!), no biowarfare. Anyway, I really think all this talk of Axis WMDs is moot. Everything I've seen from Astrodragon's writing tells me he's not setting us up for Armageddon.
 
Of course for there to be a crisis the Navy would have to tell the Army what was going on (and vice versa) and i can't see either of them being eager to do that.

Bioweapons are out Dragons don't do megadeath (except by fire ofc). Pre war the USN was quite confident they could starve japan into surrender. They probably don't realise how literal that would be.
 

Its simply my idea - that Japan justified continuus existance of USN by overestimating US production; here there will be too little time for build-up and they wil know that they simply never dealt significant looses to enemy

6) See (1). The IJA's generals' capacity for narcotic self-deception was so extreme that almost any level of firepower applied against them could be shrugged off. But not the fires of an atomic blast.:eek:

Yes, but I simply wonder if, due to early defeats, this self-deception won't be much, much lesser - they never scored large - scale initial victories, and it may positivly affect judgment abilities of Japaneese staff
 
And how do you deploy them? They need to be launched via large slow air transports, which have a hard problem getting through all those radar-supported fighters. Hence, no air superiority (Hell, they'd be facing air supremacy!), no biowarfare. Anyway, I really think all this talk of Axis WMDs is moot. Everything I've seen from Astrodragon's writing tells me he's not setting us up for Armageddon.

I don't think Dathi's post refers to Axis biological weapons at all, unless I'm having a really slow morning... :confused:
 
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