If the Japanese strike south fizzles then the Nationalist movements will struggle to gain the position they achieved in OTL as there will not be a power vacuum at the end of the war (Indochina is an exception here).
There will still be demands for independence but they are more likely to be along the lines of the Dominion route.
It would be interesting to see if the "Quit India" campaign has quite as much impact without the Japanese at the gates - a slower, more measured Indian independence (say self governing Dominion status at the end/ during war, leading to de facto independence a la Australia and Canada within five years). With India following this route you could see a far tighter "Commonwealth" being formed perhaps butterflying away Britain's need to integrate with the EEC/EU
There will still be demands for independence but they are more likely to be along the lines of the Dominion route.
It would be interesting to see if the "Quit India" campaign has quite as much impact without the Japanese at the gates - a slower, more measured Indian independence (say self governing Dominion status at the end/ during war, leading to de facto independence a la Australia and Canada within five years). With India following this route you could see a far tighter "Commonwealth" being formed perhaps butterflying away Britain's need to integrate with the EEC/EU