The Whale has Wings

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Ramp-Rat

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And so it begins, the much anticipated major battle in the Far East, as the Japanese attempt to for fill there pre-war plans, and the Allies prevent them from taking Java. Looking at the opening moves, the Japanese have got of to a bad start. The attack in Malaya, is not going to go well, as by this time, the British are more than able to absorb, such an attack, and defeat it. this will leave the Japanese open to a devastating counterattack, one that could see them pushed back into Siam. There by losing all that they have gained to date, and with the onset of the monsoon, which will stop the land campaign, this is not the time for the British to fight on through the monsoon; that will come later. Stuck at the end of an increasingly fragile supply line, and vulnerable to a sea born hook, that would bypass their defence line.

The attack on Java is if it fails, going to see a significant part of the Japanese surface fleet sunk, or put out of action. And unlike the British and Americans, Japan does not have the resources to replace such losses to the same extent that the others do. And there are also the falling oil reserves, which without the capture of ether the Burmese or DEI fields, are soon going to run out. The Japanese have to capture a working oil field soon, or for them the war is effectively over.

And not just in the Pacific and Far East, but in China too. As, without their Airforce, the Chinese will just by shear weight of numbers alone be able to push the Japanese back towards the coast. Especially if they are receiving and increase in supplies over and above what they received IOTL.

The big question is what happens once the Japanese are pushed back to the Home Islands. Without the atomic bomb, and no matter what, that isn’t going to be developed that much sooner ITTL than it was is ours. The only option is for an invasion, with all that that would cost in terms of death and destruction. And such an invasion would lead to a very different post war settlement with Japan.
 

Hyperion

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So how big is this 48th Division that the Japanese are trying to get to Java? Wasn't that Homma's main division initially in the Philippines?

If the invasion force is hit hard enough and enough of the division and support troops are wiped out even before they hit the beaches, that could be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the Japanese high command. The Navy loosing a large number of ships and the army a large portion of one of their best combat divisions at the same time?
 
The attack on Java is if it fails, going to see a significant part of the Japanese surface fleet sunk, or put out of action.(1) And unlike the British and Americans, Japan does not have the resources to replace such losses to the same extent that the others do. And there are also the falling oil reserves, which without the capture of ether the Burmese or DEI fields, are soon going to run out. The Japanese have to capture a working oil field soon, or for them the war is effectively over.(2)

1) Put out of action, yes. By drying up of fuel reserves. The Japanese fleet is just too big to just be sunk just like that. Too much of the fleet is sitting in Hiroshima or Truk, plotting the "final battle" with the USN.

2) Absolutely true.

And not just in the Pacific and Far East, but in China too. As, without their Airforce, the Chinese will just by shear weight of numbers alone be able to push the Japanese back towards the coast. Especially if they are receiving and increase in supplies over and above what they received IOTL.

Sorry, but China is hopeless. Churchill was right about the China Theater, even if for the wrong reasons. Sun Yat Sen could have still been ruling China, and Churchill would probably have felt as he did about China OTL.:rolleyes:

Most American aid to China went to Swiss bank accounts, and the condition of your average Chinese KMT soldier was one of near-starvation. They are worried about feeding and defending themselves, not launching offensives against a better trained, equipped, and motivated force like the IJA.

The big question is what happens once the Japanese are pushed back to the Home Islands. Without the atomic bomb, and no matter what, that isn’t going to be developed that much sooner ITTL than it was is ours. The only option is for an invasion, with all that that would cost in terms of death and destruction. And such an invasion would lead to a very different post war settlement with Japan.

There can't be an invasion of Japan prior to Hitler's ventilating his skull. IIRC, half the troops (US First Army) dedicated to the invasion of Honshu were to be from redeployed forces from the ETO. With the time it takes to redeploy THOSE forces, the Bomb will be available.

There won't be enough landing craft available even for the invasion of Kyushu until well after Dragoon/Anvil. I think Nimitz could well get his way in terms of a completely Central Pacific Strategy by the US, meaning early victories by the British aren't going to translate to early US victories as well. The US still has too much in the way of forces to mobilize, build up, train, and deploy.
 
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Next generation, after Black Prince and Sherman maybe?
Don't see why not. From what I can tell the Comet was pretty much an improved Cromwell, witness the redesign of the 17-pdr to make it fit and shortening its rounds to cut down on the recoil. With the Cromwell a couple of years early probably thanks to no invasion scare or fiasco in North Africa looks as though Astrodragon is going for the Black Prince to be this timeline's Comet. The logical step after this is to go for the Centurion just as after the Comet, and if things have moved up a bit they might actually see some proper service at the tail end of the war.

Centurion was a blank sheet of paper approach of design rather than improving/building on existing ones. You could possibly argue that with much fewer pressures that they might of been better off skipping the Comet/Black Prince and going straight from the Cromwell to the lessons learned fresh start design of the Centurion.
 
Simon, the problem is that with minimal experience in NA, what advanced tank design/experience will the British have to draw on? Many posters have already pointed out this as the biggest drawback to all these early victories in the ETO.:(
 
Simon, the problem is that with minimal experience in NA, what advanced tank design/experience will the British have to draw on? Many posters have already pointed out this as the biggest drawback to all these early victories in the ETO.:(

One possible way is if the early victories still show up the problem with separate cruiser and infantry tanks and it goes back to medium and heavy (and avoids multi turret designs).

As it was the initial Centurion design was a continuation of the Cruiser tank which luckily proved capable of being turned into a Universal tank.
 
One possible way is if the early victories still show up the problem with separate cruiser and infantry tanks and it goes back to medium and heavy (and avoids multi turret designs).

As it was the initial Centurion design was a continuation of the Cruiser tank which luckily proved capable of being turned into a Universal tank.

The convergence of the cruiser/infantry tank into the MBT is going to happen anyway. The British liked the heavy armour their tanks had. O'Conner'e next imput was for better reliability and at least a 6pdr to support the infantry and cope with better Axis tanks. The infantry equivalent is heavier armour plus up to a short 75mm gun (the Churchill Mk2 will be this tank). After that, the obvious need to keep improving the gun leads to the 17pdr, at which point you can support the infantry as well, so you get something more universal.

Ironically the British experience against German and Italian tanks in France and NA (and Greece) is taking them along the route of better protected cruiser tanks, so once someone suggests the meteor engine (which allows either a heavily armoured cruiser or a faster infantry tank)...
 

perfectgeneral

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Simon, the problem is that with minimal experience in NA, what advanced tank design/experience will the British have to draw on? Many posters have already pointed out this as the biggest drawback to all these early victories in the ETO.:(
Tank battles in Sicily, the coast of Thrace, Dieppe?
Like I said above. Bulldozers to clear jungles are a more immediate need. After that a serious attempt at an amphibious tank? Light tanks can be off loaded onto a beach by landing craft anyway, so maybe that is a blind alleyway.
 
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Regarding the use of hemp and anti-MJ laws in the US?

People, why do you think the movie was called "Reefer Madness", not "Cocaine Madness" or "Heroin Madness"? Because thanks to the invention of the de-corticator, mass production of hemp had finally become not only profitable, but much more so than in it's only real rival at the time. Paper. So a mass-hysteria campaign was launched by the paper and timber industries to terrorize the American population into believing marijuana was a naturally growing combination of MJ, cocaine, heroin, LSD, crack, and angel dust (even though the last three hadn't been invented yet!:rolleyes:). They had no problem doing such a campaign considering who was the man with a controlling interest in the timber and paper markets.

William Randolph Hearst!:rolleyes:

And it's too late now for Hearst to just fall down a flight of stairs.

You do know that there's a difference between industrial hemp and haze-inducing marijuana, right? Unfortunately, the two plants are identical, the only difference is the THC content. As a Canadian hemp grower told me once, "You could roll a joint the size of a telephone pole with my hemp and the only high you'd get would be climbing to the top of it."

The U.S. government distributed hemp seeds to farmers in the Midwest during WWII to replace hemp and sisal supplies lost when Japan took the Philippines. I've seen photos of Nebraska farmers harvesting hemp plants 14 feet high! The stuff went wild, of course, and still grows all over the Midwest as a weed. In Nebraska, it's called ditch weed, and almost every year the local sheriffs bust a few local boys who cut it, dry it, and sell it to city kids who don't know any better.

But your history of the demonization of marijuana/hemp is quite accurate. Attempts to criminalize marijuana had always failed in Congress, thanks to the opposition of a major lobbying group. The bill finally passed on the one day the group's representative was not in Congress. The group's name? The American Medical Association.
 
Simon, the problem is that with minimal experience in NA, what advanced tank design/experience will the British have to draw on? Many posters have already pointed out this as the biggest drawback to all these early victories in the ETO.:(
Yeah, that was one of my main queries - was there enough impetus to drive development of the 17-pdr and new models - that I mentioned in my last but one post wondering about along with possible availability issues for the Meteor. The only thing I can think of is that they run across something in Sicily, when they hit the Dodecanese - what tanks did they have there in our timeline?, or if desperate a commando raiding party manages to get a look inside a later model German tank.


Ironically the British experience against German and Italian tanks in France and NA (and Greece) is taking them along the route of better protected cruiser tanks, so once someone suggests the meteor engine (which allows either a heavily armoured cruiser or a faster infantry tank)...
So the Black Prince becomes less of major development and more of a happy coincidence? And once they have the results in front of them and get a bit more experience under their belts a Univeral Tank like the Centurion is fairly obvious for some point in the future.
 
Simon, I don't think the Aegean Islands are a place where the Germans will deploy much armor. That is an environment for infantry, AA units, mountain troops, and artillery. Tanks don't operate well in rough and mountainous terrain. Sicily isn't as bad, but IIRC OTL they didn't face much more than Panzer IV's and a few Panthers. MAYBE the first arrivals of the Tiger I, but I doubt it. OTL, Hitler was sending all his first line AFVs to the Battle of Kursk.

I don't see one German tank in Sardinia or Corsica.
 
Yeah, that was one of my main queries - was there enough impetus to drive development of the 17-pdr and new models - that I mentioned in my last but one post wondering about along with possible availability issues for the Meteor.
Well i don't know about new tanks but the 17-pounder started development in 1940, ie, before the 6-pounder entered service.
 
Hhmm that's what I was half expecting but couldn't say for sure. Good that the 17-pdr at least is guaranteed though. Like I said, certainly not a tank-head. :)
 
Centurions in Korea

From Wikipedia:

In a tribute to the 8th Hussars, General John O'Daniel, commanding the US 1st Corps, stated: "...In their Centurions, the 8th Hussars have evolved a new type of tank warfare. They taught us that anywhere a tank can go, is tank country: even the tops of mountains."
 
From Wikipedia:

In a tribute to the 8th Hussars, General John O'Daniel, commanding the US 1st Corps, stated: "...In their Centurions, the 8th Hussars have evolved a new type of tank warfare. They taught us that anywhere a tank can go, is tank country: even the tops of mountains."

The veterans of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan would like a word with you.:mad: And General John O'Daniel.
 
The veterans of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan would like a word with you.:mad: And General John O'Daniel.

To be fair, there is a year or two between Korea and Afghanistan. The weapons and doctrine of the opponents was somewhat different too, not to mention the UN forces generally had the support of the majority of the locals, something the Soviets couldn't really claim.
 

perfectgeneral

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At 45-50 tons the Centurion is a heavy tank and a tank killer. An MBT. It can go up steep gradients, but is being wasted if in static defence.

Lighter tanks generally have greater mobility and should obtain a lighter ground pressure (lighter than a foot step). This is why I'm looking for the M23E3 as a mass produced 30-35 ton better version of the Sherman.

US doctrine is to use tanks in support of infantry, so most of it's role is to fight soft body vehicles, troops and gun positions. Occasionally it will meet a tank or stug and this is when the tank killing ability will be handy.

Given the US Army doctrine reverse L-L selling the 17 pdr as a tank gun will be a hard sell. Demonstrations in the field will be required.

The MBT is the point of the spear. The lighter universal tank is standard issue.
 

Ramp-Rat

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usertron2020, sorry, but please note the word used in regard to the Japanese Fleet was significant, not total, major or large, and it was chosen with care. I am not clamming that the British Far East Fleet, can or is in any position to sink, disable or destroy the bulk of the Japanese Fleet. But they are in a position to render inoperative, a significant portion of it, in the upcoming battles in and around Java. At this stage of the conflict, Britain can afford a one for one trade in ships, and still come out on top. She is now coming close to having her industry at maximum production, with increasing aid in the form of LL, and less commitments due to previous successes, against the Germans and Italians. She is also able to replace lost and damaged units far faster than the Japanese can.

As you rightly say, the majority of the Japanese fleet is being held back, to engage in the hoped for climatic battle against the Americans in the Pacific. That this is a mistake; is something we with our knowledge can see, but they are blind to. What should have happened is that majority of the Japanese Fleet should have sailed south, and attempted to eliminate the British from the game. Whether they would have succeeded is questionable, as Somerville could have withdrawn and played a waiting game, but this was what they should have done. To do as they are doing; constantly deploying the Fleet in penny packets, only exposes it to being destroyed in detail, as they will always be facing superior odds.

In regard to China, you are right, the nationalist forces under Chiang was without doubt corrupt, badly lead at all levels and inefficient. However, Chiang is increasingly going to find himself between a rock and a hard place, told in no uncertain terms to shit or get off the pot. He is not now the poor isolated heroic leader of a beleaguered people, reliant on a fragile air bridge to keep fighting. With the Burma Road still functioning, and the Burma China railroad soon to be in operation. Note it is not my intent to force Astrodragon’s hand in the regard. It’s just that I believe, that given the company building the railroad was American, and given American interest in communications with China, the British will be hard pressed to stop this project. He is going to be in receipt of significantly more supplies than he was IOTL.

And thereby is his problem, he can not plead as he so often did, poverty. America was intent on exacting revenge on Japan for Pearl Harbour, and that meant a bombing campaign of the Japanese Home Land. As IOTL so in this, the original plan will be to base the bombers in China, and that means that bases must be constructed within range of the Home Islands. This means that there has to be a ground campaign to acquire the territory to build the bases. If Chiang fails to do this, he will find that in spite of the vocal China Lobby in America, he is in going to be told, that there are better places to use the resources being sent to him.

The British for one, no great admires of Chiang as you have already pointed out, and through whose territory all the supplies have to travel. Will be quick to point out, that they can make far better use of these supplies than he can, so wouldn’t it be better to give them to us, and just send the minimum to Chiang. ITTL the British are in a far stronger position than they were, and thus far more able to have their voice heard. And it will not be a lone voice; there will be plenty of Americans adding their voice too. American disillusionment with Chiang if he doesn’t toe the line, and that’s up to the dragon, will without doubt come much sooner than it did IOTL.
 

perfectgeneral

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Simon, I don't think the Aegean Islands are a place where the Germans will deploy much armor...

If landfall is made in northern Greece, there will be a coastal plain for armour to operate on. Maybe even the Danubian plain if the beachhead breaks out north. Later. The current need is for light tanks that can go anywhere (especially ship to shore). Medium and heavy universal tanks need 'tank country'.
 

perfectgeneral

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Its true the FF need modern equipment; there is a lot on order from the USA, and tanks are coming soon (a slightly modified Stuart).

With Dutch experience with the Stuart to learn from the French will have a winner in these advanced light tanks (Six pounder). Great for taking beaches, clearing jungle roads (or making new ones) and supporting assaults generally. As long as the engine doesn't overheat. The 6-pdr will need a bigger turret. Is this still a Stuart? Is the full 6-pdr the way to go here? http://www.quarry.nildram.co.uk/alt%20WW2%20tank%20gun.htm

tankuk1.jpg
An existing 6-pdr round that is lighter: the 57mmx307R of the naval 6-pdr 8 cwt gun used on earlier tanks. A new design of gun for this would be lighter and with less recoil than the 6-pdr AT. A better fit for the Stuart, even if it gets a larger turret. The 47mm round (Brit 3-pdr - 'by the time production stopped in 1936 a total of 600 weapons had been made.') next to it (above) would do and I believe is similar to the French 47mm APX round (47x380mm). The 47mm APX SP AT application is interesting...http://www.tarrif.net/wwii/pdf/DL - Laffly W15 TCC In Action.pdf

That document illustrates French thinking at the time and shows what they might have aimed for, given the time and money, after the fall of mainland France. The 3 pdr shows that Britain has tooling for a 47mm gun. France could ask for an APX gun line (in USA) and adapt the Brit 3-pdr HE shell for use alongside the APCBC round.
 
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