The Whale has Wings

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The Dutch also currently have control of most of the resources, which will feed the allied war effort, rubber, tin, quinine and excellent coffee so they will also be richer. Noone will send munitions convoys back empty.

Most refining capacity at this time was close to the older oilfields. possession of the DEI and Burma allows shorter transport routes to allied forces in theatre and opening the Med allows coastal oil convoys from Haifa west and the possibility of a really F***ing Big Inch across North Africa extension of the TAP. Haifa - Tunis is ~200 air miles longer than the real one.

And by comparison the US and parts of Latin America potentially poorer. Small point but it affects shipping and the European $ position.
 
I think we might want to consider a positive side of extended colonialism/commonwealth formation from the colonized side too. Astrodragon gave us an inverted example of what colonialism meant generally when it was pointed out that OTL, with people other than Alexander and Park in charge of the defense of Singapore and Malay peninsula, important defense works (in this case, improved airfields) were deferred because the colonial elites did not want to see the price of labor raised by the government offering the job to the local workforces!:rolleyes: In this timeline, Singapore is holding so far in part because its ITTL commanders would not hold with this nonsense, went ahead and hired the workers and built the fields. This is presumably one of dozens, hundreds, or perhaps thousands of instances of what was terminally wrong with the colonialist regimes being tossed overboard in the interest of general defense. Native forces are presumably being raised, European and "white" Commonwealth forces are increasingly fighting alongside them; both sides are coming to appreciate how much they need the other. This alone will hardly eliminate all grievances but if the whites, recognizing as Park and Alexander did that they are all in this together, start acknowledging and addressing these grievances, and get increasingly used to the idea that the postwar regime will be a partnership, not a top-down master/subject relationship, then quite conceivably the notion of a return to the pre-war status on a macro scale but with much stronger native autonomy and representation in the European halls of power will not seem so bad. If wartime investment on their soil, for the sake of winning the war, transitions over to a level of investment in developing the colonies not just for European profit but for the manifest good of the colonized peoples themselves, and largely under their own direction, then many colonized peoples might see the departure of the Europeans as something to be avoided or at least delayed. It seems likely that there will still be a strong movement toward autonomy and a lot of outright nationalism that looks forward to total independence, but with the balance of sentiment shifted toward some level of relationship with the European "mother" country something more like the British Commonwealth rather than total independence might still be the norm in the 1960s; if it lasts that long, then the relationship will probably come to seem more and more normal and natural to both Europeans and their former subjects.
 
I think we might want to consider a positive side of extended colonialism/commonwealth formation from the colonized side too. Astrodragon gave us an inverted example of what colonialism meant generally when it was pointed out that OTL, with people other than Alexander and Park in charge of the defense of Singapore and Malay peninsula, important defense works (in this case, improved airfields) were deferred because the colonial elites did not want to see the price of labor raised by the government offering the job to the local workforces!:rolleyes: In this timeline, Singapore is holding so far in part because its ITTL commanders would not hold with this nonsense, went ahead and hired the workers and built the fields. This is presumably one of dozens, hundreds, or perhaps thousands of instances of what was terminally wrong with the colonialist regimes being tossed overboard in the interest of general defense. Native forces are presumably being raised, European and "white" Commonwealth forces are increasingly fighting alongside them; both sides are coming to appreciate how much they need the other. This alone will hardly eliminate all grievances but if the whites, recognizing as Park and Alexander did that they are all in this together, start acknowledging and addressing these grievances, and get increasingly used to the idea that the postwar regime will be a partnership, not a top-down master/subject relationship, then quite conceivably the notion of a return to the pre-war status on a macro scale but with much stronger native autonomy and representation in the European halls of power will not seem so bad. If wartime investment on their soil, for the sake of winning the war, transitions over to a level of investment in developing the colonies not just for European profit but for the manifest good of the colonized peoples themselves, and largely under their own direction, then many colonized peoples might see the departure of the Europeans as something to be avoided or at least delayed. It seems likely that there will still be a strong movement toward autonomy and a lot of outright nationalism that looks forward to total independence, but with the balance of sentiment shifted toward some level of relationship with the European "mother" country something more like the British Commonwealth rather than total independence might still be the norm in the 1960s; if it lasts that long, then the relationship will probably come to seem more and more normal and natural to both Europeans and their former subjects.

I think what you are going to see is a slower, smoother, quieter transition, to local rule than the fairly rough and violent transitions in OTL.

Dutch East Indies: Evolution to some sort of Federation, with more local control, and more consideration of local identities and traditions, some "states" retain close Dutch ties, some become independent Republics, some restore local dynasties as constitutional monarchs (Aceh?)

Malaya: No insurgency, similar Federation to OTL, but keep the links to the UK crown (Elizabeth II is Queen of Malaya as a whole, and Queen of the Straits Settlements, and Singapore as states), and the job of Governor-General gets passed by tradition to the local Sultans. Close trade ties to the UK.
 
I think what you are going to see is a slower, smoother, quieter transition, to local rule than the fairly rough and violent transitions in OTL.

Dutch East Indies: Evolution to some sort of Federation, with more local control, and more consideration of local identities and traditions, some "states" retain close Dutch ties, some become independent Republics, some restore local dynasties as constitutional monarchs (Aceh?)

Not sure about a federation, one of the prime concerns of the non-javans was javan dominance.

Borneo, Celebes, New Guinea stay dutch colonies much longer, maybe even progressing to some kind of territory. Java could go independent as a whole, but in parts also possible. Sumatra likely as at least 2 parts (Atjeh & rest).
The idea going round though was to let both islands go as seperate countries in the long run (pre-war the thought was mostly that this would happen in the 50s or 60s)
 
Ramp-rat

Given what's been said about the German U-boat campaign in the Indian Ocean OTL it sounds like you're right that convoying is likely to be only used for the most crucial missions, mainly troops transports and possibly oil? As you say this could further boost efficiency, of operations, even independent of markedly reduced shipping losses. There might be some fear that the Japanese will use their subs for a commercial war but events are likely to show this is unlikely pretty quickly. Good point.:)

Steve
 
Not sure about a federation, one of the prime concerns of the non-javans was javan dominance.

Borneo, Celebes, New Guinea stay dutch colonies much longer, maybe even progressing to some kind of territory. Java could go independent as a whole, but in parts also possible. Sumatra likely as at least 2 parts (Atjeh & rest).
The idea going round though was to let both islands go as seperate countries in the long run (pre-war the thought was mostly that this would happen in the 50s or 60s)
I agree with this, basically. I suspect that there maybe a couple of federations, as many of the islannds are too small to stand on their own. But avoiding otls javanese empire, as many see it, might be a good thing.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
stevep, I was wrong in my original post in that I hadn’t realized the extent of German U-boat activity IOTL in the Indian ocean, my bad. However having now looked at what was done, it is obvious to me that without the Japanese capturing Malaya there is going to be little or no U-boat action in the area ITTL. And with Singapore remaining in British hands along with parts of the DEI, Japanese submarines will be too engaged in this area to become involved in a campaign in the Indian Ocean. Nor are their submarines optimized for this sort of campaign, or does their doctrine emphasize this sort of warfare.

As for convoys, yes troop ships will at least up until mid to late 1943 sail in convoy, though even this would not apply to all of the area. It is feasible that Indian troops being deployed to the Middle East and sailing from Bombay, might travel on independently routed ships, as the perception would be that there was no risk to them in this area. In regard to tankers, again it will depend on from where and to where they are sailing, that would decided whether they need convoying or escort. Tankers sailing from the Middle East oil refineries to the west coast of India, and the east coast of Africa, wouldn’t need escort or convoying. Only those that are entering the combat zone would need to travel in convoy, along with all other ships entering this area. And unlike in the Atlantic, the principle threat to them would be from air attack, not submarines.

All in all, the escort war in the Far East is going to be very different from that experienced in the cold gray Atlantic. Convoys will tend to be smaller, and most journeys shorter. Rangoon to Bombay is only 600nm as apposed to New York to Southampton which is 3,000nm. Ships sailing from India into the combat zone in convoy, can to an extent coast hop and remain under land based air protection for much of the trip. And as has been pointed out will normally have a back load to carry on the return trip. Unlike shipping in the North Atlantic, who normally sailed in ballast from the UK. Though some now will be sailing with cargoes from the Far East for the US, which have been transhipped, or are being carried on ships that are returning to the US for cargoes ether for the Far East or other destinations.

In many ways the change in the logistics is going to have major effect both on the conduct of the war and post war. Though as always this is up to the dragon to decided.
 
It's a very big plate that can take a whole dragon without most of it spilling over the sides. Also, Astrodragon has something much more scary to threaten us with than fiery breath, not finishing the story.
 
Not sure about a federation, one of the prime concerns of the non-javans was javan dominance.

Borneo, Celebes, New Guinea stay dutch colonies much longer, maybe even progressing to some kind of territory. Java could go independent as a whole, but in parts also possible. Sumatra likely as at least 2 parts (Atjeh & rest).
The idea going round though was to let both islands go as seperate countries in the long run (pre-war the thought was mostly that this would happen in the 50s or 60s)
Parts of Sumatra might even be interested in becoming states in Malaysia, as there are already quite strong cultural links...
 
stevep, I was wrong in my original post in that I hadn’t realized the extent of German U-boat activity IOTL in the Indian ocean, my bad. However having now looked at what was done, it is obvious to me that without the Japanese capturing Malaya there is going to be little or no U-boat action in the area ITTL. And with Singapore remaining in British hands along with parts of the DEI, Japanese submarines will be too engaged in this area to become involved in a campaign in the Indian Ocean. Nor are their submarines optimized for this sort of campaign, or does their doctrine emphasize this sort of warfare.

As for convoys, yes troop ships will at least up until mid to late 1943 sail in convoy, though even this would not apply to all of the area. It is feasible that Indian troops being deployed to the Middle East and sailing from Bombay, might travel on independently routed ships, as the perception would be that there was no risk to them in this area. In regard to tankers, again it will depend on from where and to where they are sailing, that would decided whether they need convoying or escort. Tankers sailing from the Middle East oil refineries to the west coast of India, and the east coast of Africa, wouldn’t need escort or convoying. Only those that are entering the combat zone would need to travel in convoy, along with all other ships entering this area. And unlike in the Atlantic, the principle threat to them would be from air attack, not submarines.

All in all, the escort war in the Far East is going to be very different from that experienced in the cold gray Atlantic. Convoys will tend to be smaller, and most journeys shorter. Rangoon to Bombay is only 600nm as apposed to New York to Southampton which is 3,000nm. Ships sailing from India into the combat zone in convoy, can to an extent coast hop and remain under land based air protection for much of the trip. And as has been pointed out will normally have a back load to carry on the return trip. Unlike shipping in the North Atlantic, who normally sailed in ballast from the UK. Though some now will be sailing with cargoes from the Far East for the US, which have been transhipped, or are being carried on ships that are returning to the US for cargoes ether for the Far East or other destinations.

In many ways the change in the logistics is going to have major effect both on the conduct of the war and post war. Though as always this is up to the dragon to decided.

Ramp-Rat

I think even in the Atlantic the Queens, frequently used as troopships, sailed independently because of their speed and never had any problems. Even less so TTL with no large surface threat and greater air coverage limiting raiders and subs. Hence a lot of troop movements could go unescorted but not sure how many large fast liners were available. Also there could be political problems if a trooper was unlucky and sunk with a large loss of say Indian or Australian lives.

Thinking of oil in case there is a shortage and possibly the Germans see the sense of actually targeting tankers.

With the ballast situation I was wondering what will happen with ships carrying L-L to China? TTL, presuming allied control of the Bay of Bengal and Burma this is likely to be markedly larger. As such would Britain/India be able to find goods to send back on the return trip, which could have significant economic consequences or would the US insist on ballast? Presumably the same limitations America placed on British trade would be applied to India but it might have other products, especially more raw materials perhaps.

Steve
 
I love Dragons.:)

French-Fried!:D

It's a very big plate that can take a whole dragon without most of it spilling over the sides. Also, Astrodragon has something much more scary to threaten us with than fiery breath, not finishing the story.

MattII - Very true.:eek:

Usertron2020 - are you sure you're not just playing to the stereotype that the greatest danger the US poses to the world is the gravitational distortion from their huge mass bringing the moon crashing down on the Earth.:p:D Trying to heat a whole dragon at a single sitting.

Steve
 
Thinking of oil in case there is a shortage and possibly the Germans see the sense of actually targeting tankers.
That's smart, but so are the British, so it's possible to presume that they've thought of this, and have decided to get around it by disguising the tankers as normal ships.
 
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