The Whale has Wings

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HJ Tulp

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One problem I see with a invasion of Sicily is that once you land you can't really stop until you are halfway up the Boot. This because the island is so close to the Italian mainland. If you take Sardinia then once you secure the island you can conclude the campaign. If you take Sicily you have to move pretty fast. Are there enough Allied troops to make that happen without risking to be overpowered if the Germans come to aid the Italians?
 
Wietze, HJ Tulip, interesting points and I tend to. With the colonial powers able to play a much stronger hand post war the shake out in post war SEA is going to be very different, and probably in North Africa as well.
 

Hyperion

Banned
One problem I see with a invasion of Sicily is that once you land you can't really stop until you are halfway up the Boot. This because the island is so close to the Italian mainland. If you take Sardinia then once you secure the island you can conclude the campaign. If you take Sicily you have to move pretty fast. Are there enough Allied troops to make that happen without risking to be overpowered if the Germans come to aid the Italians?

If you're implying that the Italians could retake Sicily, that's BS. At this point the Regina Marina is a shell of it's former self, Italian air power has been hit hard, and the British and even US forces can pretty much supply Sicily with men and equipment at will.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
If you're implying that the Italians could retake Sicily, that's BS. At this point the Regina Marina is a shell of it's former self, Italian air power has been hit hard, and the British and even US forces can pretty much supply Sicily with men and equipment at will.

But isn't the close proximity of Messina and Regio di Calabria a problem? OTL the Allies just moved on from Sicily to the mainland in short order but do the Allies ATL have enough forces to do that and then protect their bridgehead from German/Italian counterattacks?
 

Hyperion

Banned
But isn't the close proximity of Messina and Regio di Calabria a problem? OTL the Allies just moved on from Sicily to the mainland in short order but do the Allies ATL have enough forces to do that and then protect their bridgehead from German/Italian counterattacks?

Yes they do.

The Royal Navy, never mind the token French forces and the small but growing US Navy forces available can pretty much dominate the shipping lanes to Sicily, keeping a good supply of men and equipment on the island.

The Italians and Germans, by contrast, have little to no amphibious capability beyond small coastal craft that could at best support a battalion sized landing operation at best. They also have no major surface warships to attack allied forces, while the British and US forces have plenty of battleships, cruisers, destroyers, auxiliaries and support ships, and aircraft carriers to call on, not to mention a growing amount of land based air power to call on.

The British and French, as stated by Astrodragon, already have some 12 divisions and support getting ready for the planned invasion of Sicily. This isn't counting the US 1st Infantry Division which may or may not play some limited role in the Sicily campaign, and this does not take into account the availability of additional British, Commonwealth, French and a slowly increasing number of US divisions that can be brought in to garrison Sicily.

The Italians being able to retake Sicily once it's in Allied hands is pretty much ASB territory.

If you have solid specific facts or figures that would show that retaking Sicily from the Allies is possible, I would very much like to see that information, in detail, with plenty of links to other websites to back up your claim.
 
The Italians being able to retake Sicily once it's in Allied hands is pretty much ASB territory.

If you have solid specific facts or figures that would show that retaking Sicily from the Allies is possible, I would very much like to see that information, in detail, with plenty of links to other websites to back up your claim.

the question remains, that as soon sicily is taken how long will mussolini be able to stay in power, he experienced a lot more setbacks already than otl.
So Sicily might be the straw that breaks the camels back.
 

Hyperion

Banned
the question remains, that as soon sicily is taken how long will mussolini be able to stay in power, he experienced a lot more setbacks already than otl.
So Sicily might be the straw that breaks the camels back.

It was the OTL straw that broke the camels back, so to speak.

Here, Italy has already lost all of their African holdings, their fleet has been gutted, their armies in Africa have been lost, their territory in the Aegean has fallen, and British and soon US bomber squadrons are going to be increasingly hitting targets up and down the Italian peninsula.

If Sicily and a few smaller islands fall in the coming months, Mussolini is finished.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Yes they do.

The Royal Navy, never mind the token French forces and the small but growing US Navy forces available can pretty much dominate the shipping lanes to Sicily, keeping a good supply of men and equipment on the island.

The Italians and Germans, by contrast, have little to no amphibious capability beyond small coastal craft that could at best support a battalion sized landing operation at best. They also have no major surface warships to attack allied forces, while the British and US forces have plenty of battleships, cruisers, destroyers, auxiliaries and support ships, and aircraft carriers to call on, not to mention a growing amount of land based air power to call on.

The British and French, as stated by Astrodragon, already have some 12 divisions and support getting ready for the planned invasion of Sicily. This isn't counting the US 1st Infantry Division which may or may not play some limited role in the Sicily campaign, and this does not take into account the availability of additional British, Commonwealth, French and a slowly increasing number of US divisions that can be brought in to garrison Sicily.

The Italians being able to retake Sicily once it's in Allied hands is pretty much ASB territory.

If you have solid specific facts or figures that would show that retaking Sicily from the Allies is possible, I would very much like to see that information, in detail, with plenty of links to other websites to back up your claim.


I never made any claim so stop hitting the poor strawman. I was merely asking questions. I never even wondered about a possible attempt by the Axis to take back Sicily. I was asking if a liberation of Sicily would make a immediate invasion of the Italian mainland necessary and if that was the case if a succesfull one could be made without being thrown back in the sea by German reinforcements.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
stevep, the major reason that I see for removing the older merchant ships from the Atlantic is speed. Convoys travel at the speed of the slowest ship, and many of the older ships were lucky to be able to maintain 4kts, let alone the 6kts that was meant to be the speed of a slow convoy. If you remove all ships than can not maintain 8kts, you will have doubled the speed of slow convoys, which more than makes up for the loss of the older ships. Also the older ships tended to have a lower tonnage, so replacing two such with one Liberty type, can actually give you more tonnage to play with.

Thanks to scrimping on maintenance pre war, in an effort to keep coats down, older ships also tended to break down more often. This wouldn’t be a major problem, when sailing independently in the Indian Ocean, but is when in convoy in the Atlantic. As you ether have to divert an escort to stand by the cripple, thus weakening the escort group, or leave it to take its chances, which normally meant it being sunk.

In regard to the Indian Ocean, other than a few surface raiders, I do not believe that there was any threat from German submarines, though I can not swear to that. Convoys were I believe normally only escorted by AMC’s of light cruisers, only troop convoys getting anything more. If we look at the area, we can divide it up into high risk and low risk, and allocate resources appropriately. High risk is the Bay of Bengal, and all points south to Singapore, as for the rest, it is all low risk. I would expect that once events in Burma, Malaya and the DEI have played themselves out, and the monsoon has started, other than troop ships and shipping in the high risk areas, convoys will effectively be dead.

In addition, German blockade runners, surface and submarine, who enjoyed limited successes IOTL, are ITTL going to find there task virtually impossible. As without Singapore, as a finally top off point, they are going to have to try to come back via the Horn and not Cape Hope. This will be just one more peace of grit in the German war effort, which along with all the others is going to have a cumulative effect on industry.

All in all, events are now beginning to move away from the TL as we know it, slowly in some areas like Russia, but far more rapidly in others. In the Atlantic, once a certain American admiral has been put in his place, we should by the end of 1942, see the U-boat war essentially won. And with what is looking to be the collapse/surrender of Italy, the need for convoys in the Mediterranean reduced as well, thus freeing up even more escorts for the Atlantic. Success as the say breeds success, and we are coming close to the tipping point where the Germans will find themselves only able, in the west, to react to allies as they will not set the pace.
 
Sardinia may make a nice target in and of itself, but I'd hit Sicily first and foremost. It's closer to Malta and land based air cover from Africa, and clearing out Sicily will take the pressure off Malta, and go far in opening up the Meditteranean for convoys to and from the Indian Ocean and Pacific.

One idea on Sardinia though, the US might have a brigade or so going in at Sicily, and the bulk of the 1st Infantry Division waiting to land later on.

Could that entire division, or another US division be used entirely along with say a Corps sized British force to take Sardinia later on, say a month or so after Sicily falls.

I've come around on Sicily v. Sardinia after looking at Gantt's numbers.:eek:

IIRC, Italian resistance against US Army forces tended to be very weak when they were not cadred with German forces. Weaker by far even than against the British. In Sicily, the Italian Army "fighting" against the US Army was surrendering by the regiment. AFTER the breakout from the beaches, that is. The Italian Army was certainly tough enough at the outset of the Sicily Campaign.:(

Nothing against the British Army, just too many family members on the American side of the battle lines for the Italians to put up much of a fight.:p

EDIT: I may have mentioned this before, but US troops like the 1st US Infantry MIGHT play a good role in getting Italians to surrender quickly in areas where Germans are thin on the ground.
 
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Ramp-Rat

The U-Boat War definitely DID extend to the Indian Ocean, all the way to Indian territorial waters!:eek: But at such extended LOCs, once the British succeeded in pruning down the number of available "milch cows", that effort had to be abandoned.
 
Usertron asked about UK (allied) shipping resources. Not sure but its gives me a chance to say this. The reduction in sinkings = around a full years UK merchie production OTL...
Well this is interesting, and going to throw up some changes post-war. Just started reading Vanguard to Trident by Eric Grove that details the Royal Navy from after the war up until around the mid-80s, and right from the off it covers the fight between the Admiralty that wanted to rebuild the fleet and the government prioritising the rebuilding of the merchant marine to bring in much needed income from trade and exports and the resulting allocation of shipyard and skilled manpower resources. With a large number of our timeline 'modern' carriers to see them through for the foreseeable future and the merchantman situation and economy doing better the Admiralty should be able to make a better fight of things.


Overall I think the pre-war Empire trade network is likely to be much better preserved with two consequences….
Like so many other things it does seem to be the case that by doing better it improves their situation, which allows them to do better which again improves their situation, and lets them keep building on it. Aside from after the war this is going to have some knock-on affects on London's decision making processes, being a bit more comfortable could make them willing to take a few more chances or not feel the need to go for expedience over the better option that takes a bit more time and money.


But enough of all this technical stuff of tonnages, cargoes, and tactical-technical parameters, bring on the Javan meat grinder! :D
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
userton2020, I have just had a quick look on wiki, and according to it, only ten “mich cows” were built, all of which operated in the North Atlantic. In regard to U-Boat operations, I am not expert, but again according to wiki, they didn’t really start until late in 42, and relied on the use of Penang as a base of operations. Given that its not looking like Penang will be available, and that the pressure on the U-boat arm is ITTL greater than it was in ours. So without a base to operate from, it looks to me as if we will not see U-boats in the Indian ocean, in the way their were IOTL. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t be working Cape Hope, and the Mozambique Channel, but even this will be harder than it was. In the end though its up to the dragon to decide if we are to see U-boats in this area. :D
 
No change from prewar for the DEI??

I know next to nothing about the DEI relative to everyone else out there, but one question has not yet been asked. Namely, what about the destruction of the myth of the White Man's invincibility in WWII before the very eyes of the natives in SE Asia? And this can't be handwaved away by the simple observations that the Whites "haven't lost" and are "doing better than OTL".

What the natives see is an Asian country kicking White Ass all over the Pacific, and if the Whites are still "holding on" in North Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and Sumatra, they certainly AREN'T in Hong Kong, Indo-China, Siam, the Philippines, Borneo, the Eastern DEI, the Pacific Islands of Rabaul/Wake/Guam, and New Guinea. Soon to be added Java?:eek: (1) Which could be seen as the final stronghold lost before the dominoes fall all over the South-West Pacific.

1) And the cherry on this s*** sundae is the ultimate humiliation upon the White Race by the Yellow Race in WWII (ITTL): Pearl Harbor. If Asiatics could do all that, what could the locals in the DEI do to the Dutch?

I'm not saying this is accurate. Quite the opposite, in fact. I'm saying this would have to be the reaction of a lot of native locals in the DEI upon whom the yoke of colonial rule has rested a lot heavier (less enlightened rule) than in the British Empire. So there are going to be many people very happy to see the Whites beaten.

Even if the Allies are successful in Java, they still have a lot of territory lost to the Japanese. The political damage taken because of this will be fatal to Dutch rule in the DEI, whatever they may tell themselves.:rolleyes: Post-WWII, post-Nazi occupation, post-liberation (and all the damage THAT caused) the Netherlands simply won't have the ability, the resources, the $$$, to keep ahold of those islands. I fear that being in a better shape than OTL they may try to fight all the harder to hold on to them. Dutch Vietnam?

Opinions?:confused:
 

abc123

Banned
I know next to nothing about the DEI relative to everyone else out there, but one question has not yet been asked. Namely, what about the destruction of the myth of the White Man's invincibility in WWII before the very eyes of the natives in SE Asia? And this can't be handwaved away by the simple observations that the Whites "haven't lost" and are "doing better than OTL".

What the natives see is an Asian country kicking White Ass all over the Pacific, and if the Whites are still "holding on" in North Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and Sumatra, they certainly AREN'T in Hong Kong, Indo-China, Siam, the Philippines, Borneo, the Eastern DEI, the Pacific Islands of Rabaul/Wake/Guam, and New Guinea. Soon to be added Java?:eek: (1) Which could be seen as the final stronghold lost before the dominoes fall all over the South-West Pacific.

1) And the cherry on this s*** sundae is the ultimate humiliation upon the White Race by the Yellow Race in WWII (ITTL): Pearl Harbor. If Asiatics could do all that, what could the locals in the DEI do to the Dutch?

I'm not saying this is accurate. Quite the opposite, in fact. I'm saying this would have to be the reaction of a lot of native locals in the DEI upon whom the yoke of colonial rule has rested a lot heavier (less enlightened rule) than in the British Empire. So there are going to be many people very happy to see the Whites beaten.

Even if the Allies are successful in Java, they still have a lot of territory lost to the Japanese. The political damage taken because of this will be fatal to Dutch rule in the DEI, whatever they may tell themselves.:rolleyes: Post-WWII, post-Nazi occupation, post-liberation (and all the damage THAT caused) the Netherlands simply won't have the ability, the resources, the $$$, to keep ahold of those islands. I fear that being in a better shape than OTL they may try to fight all the harder to hold on to them. Dutch Vietnam?

Opinions?:confused:

I pretty much agree with that.
Java and Sumatra will go pretty soon. About Borneo, Moluccas and WNG, they could maybe stay there longer, using fear of Javans domination...
 
I know next to nothing about the DEI relative to everyone else out there, but one question has not yet been asked. Namely, what about the destruction of the myth of the White Man's invincibility in WWII before the very eyes of the natives in SE Asia? And this can't be handwaved away by the simple observations that the Whites "haven't lost" and are "doing better than OTL".

What the natives see is an Asian country kicking White Ass all over the Pacific, and if the Whites are still "holding on" in North Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and Sumatra, they certainly AREN'T in Hong Kong, Indo-China, Siam, the Philippines, Borneo, the Eastern DEI, the Pacific Islands of Rabaul/Wake/Guam, and New Guinea. Soon to be added Java?:eek: (1) Which could be seen as the final stronghold lost before the dominoes fall all over the South-West Pacific.

1) And the cherry on this s*** sundae is the ultimate humiliation upon the White Race by the Yellow Race in WWII (ITTL): Pearl Harbor. If Asiatics could do all that, what could the locals in the DEI do to the Dutch?

I'm not saying this is accurate. Quite the opposite, in fact. I'm saying this would have to be the reaction of a lot of native locals in the DEI upon whom the yoke of colonial rule has rested a lot heavier (less enlightened rule) than in the British Empire. So there are going to be many people very happy to see the Whites beaten.

Even if the Allies are successful in Java, they still have a lot of territory lost to the Japanese. The political damage taken because of this will be fatal to Dutch rule in the DEI, whatever they may tell themselves.:rolleyes: Post-WWII, post-Nazi occupation, post-liberation (and all the damage THAT caused) the Netherlands simply won't have the ability, the resources, the $$$, to keep ahold of those islands. I fear that being in a better shape than OTL they may try to fight all the harder to hold on to them. Dutch Vietnam?

Opinions?:confused:

Your Kind of supposing that the general population of Java has got to hear of all this, it's not like they can google the latest news is it, they will be swayed more by what they can see with their own eyes and if they can see that the Dutch are holding the Japanese invaders and pushing them back into the sea then they may not be quite so keen on gaining independence for the powers that provide stability, law and defence.

I'm not saying that there will never be independence, I just think it will be along the lines of most decolonisation in the early 60s.
 
U boats

Just had a little check. Monsun was not launched until mid 43 and was dependent on bases in the DEI, even the supply ships are currently in Japan and would need to redeploy forward to support Indian Ocean ops. There were no milch cow bit there were merkator boats (ex italian from Eritrea used for supply) they were used that way sometimes but need the stores from the ships currently in japan. add another million tons to the allied merchant fleet. (bit a lot of that was lost around the Cape.

There is an 18 page list of allied merchies lost dec41 - march42 I have somewhere and a lot are listed as captured renamed XYZ Maru sunk by allied whatever 44/45.

The Dutch Vietnam is a maybe (except the Dutch could'nt be as daft as the french) but the white man myth not so much at least for the UK. Its still a bit soon for an effect elewhere I think the french colonial admin is charge in indochina. Apart from Hong Kong nothing with much population has been lost and in places like Rabaul, New Guinea.

Planti inglis man bilong pait, balus man bilong pait, kilim i dai pinis pret hiden birau no lontaim atink.

em nau!
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
usertron2020, yes the fact that their colonial masters had been seen to be fallible, will have an effect on the post war world. However, it wasn’t that alone that made it virtually impossible for the Dutch to regain control of the DEI, and dragged the French in FIC, into an unwinnable conflict. Britain who faced similar problems in Malaya though not identical in anyway, did have the power and finances to defeat the insurgency and get out in a more ordered way.

As has been said by others, it took time for the Dutch to get back into their territories; time for the Japanese razed and equipped local forces to establish themselves. And this was much the same in FIC, where again locally razed and equipped forces were there to “welcome” their colonial masters back. Malaya was different, the principal force pushing for independence, had been razed and equipped by the British, and in addition was made up mostly of Chinese and therefore seen as a threat by the indigenous Malay population.

Another big problem for the returning colonials was that they had lost their entry into the various independence movements. Who had, with or without Japanese help, been able to cleanse themselves of government agents. This meant that when the colonial powers returned they had to from scratch try to build a picture of the forces arranged against them.

In addition, as has already been mentioned, you have to take into account internal tensions with in the colony. In the DEI a lot of people preferred Dutch rule, to the possibility of Javanese domination of the area. And there were similar concerns in Malaya, Burma and FIC, all of which had significant minority groups, who saw their colonial masters as protectors against the majority population.

Note it wasn’t Pearl Harbour that showed up the myth of white invincibility that had been destroyed during the Russian Japanese war in 1904. When the Japanese took on and defeated the Russians on both land and sea. This event far more than Pearl Harbour, was the catalyst to a belief that the white man wasn’t all he made himself out to be.

Events in the post war world will be very interesting, but they will follow a very different path to the one we know. In the DEI, the fact that any Japanese occupation will be shorter than IOTL, and that the Dutch colonial forces will not have collapsed as they did IOTL, will make it much harder for independence movements to establish themselves.

In FIC, if, and this is up to Astrodragon, the nation is “liberated” by a combined British/French force. One that re-establishes French rule as it progresses, and at one and the same time, improves communications in county, as it will need to support its campaign. You will see a far stronger colonial power than was seen post war in our world.

Burma without Japanese occupation, will remain far more stable than it did, and far more manageable for the colonial administration. Malaya, will in all probability find itself in a strange way becoming more colonialized than it was, as what was a mish mash will become a single entirety.

And given that one and all of the colonial powers will be in many ways stronger than they were. American interference in there affairs will be harder to achieve, as they will not be so dependant on America in the post war world. ;)
 
And there is another possibility, in otl the decolonisation of the DEI was also very much attributable to the backstabbing us policies, putting extreme pressure to force decolonisation. I could imagine that the feeling between the British, Dutch and French on the colonies becomes less that of rivalry, and moves to feeling to have to stick together. This sense of cooperation could very much extend to Europe. for one i could see britain more tied to europe than otl, and france also far less rejecting the uk than otl in that sense. On a broader scale could we see that when european integration starts that the trade ties with the (former)colonies are kept under consideration more (and as such the commonwealth).
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Even if the Allies are successful in Java, they still have a lot of territory lost to the Japanese. The political damage taken because of this will be fatal to Dutch rule in the DEI, whatever they may tell themselves.:rolleyes: Post-WWII, post-Nazi occupation, post-liberation (and all the damage THAT caused) the Netherlands simply won't have the ability, the resources, the $$$, to keep ahold of those islands. I fear that being in a better shape than OTL they may try to fight all the harder to hold on to them. Dutch Vietnam?

Opinions?:confused:

We do have to compare things to OTL to have a grasp of what the effects will be ATL. The Japanese occupation and the following Bersiap-period really broke the back of the colonial government. It also caused a revolution in the social structure of the native population. The chaos was used to crush the old native powers and replacing it by either nothing or by Nationalist leaders. This is what discredited the Dutch in the eyes of the normal 'Indonesian'. The Dutch couldn't keep order and the natives started to turn to the Nationalists as they wouldn't go anywhere anyway. Note that it took until 1946 for the first Dutch forces to arrive. In this TL the Dutch aren't going anywhere in the places they had the hardest time getting under control, namely Java and Sumatra (with no Dutch soldier returning to Atjeh at all from 1942 on!) and they will be able to put boots on the ground in the now occupied areas (which were, with the exception of parts of Celebesm no headaches and even the most important recruitment grounds for the KNIL) pretty soon after a Japanese capitulation or liberation by Allied forces. The KNIL was much more capable of policing the DEI then the regular Dutch forces which arrived from Europe after 1945 and had to play catch-up from the beginning. Then there is the fact that (heavily pressured by the US) the Dutch diplomatic service decided to go for all or nothing in 1949 which allowed for the formation of a one big Indonesian country giving the impression that the Indonesian Nationalists were much stronger and more succesfull then they were in reality.

What is often forgotten is that people don't rise up if things are the same, they rise up when things change.
 
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