Ramp-Rat
Hyperion
Garrison
Astrodragon
Regarding your most recent posts about British amphibious landing sites in the Central Med (Sicily v. Sardinia), and possible Hitlerian reactions to them.
Don't be beguiled by wishful thinking. As in "Oh, if only Hitler lets us do A, B, C, and D, we can turn Italy into a defensive bastion while setting up the OTL bomber bases in Foggia to turn Ploesti into a parking lot."
First, OIL was never far from Hitler's forebrain 24/7.
Second, and much more importantly, ATLs have a tendency to badly underestimate the "special relationship"

between Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini. It's important to remember that at a time in his life when he was just a street agitator struggling to get ahold of power WITHIN the ranks of a tiny extremist political party in Munich; Mussolini was
Il Duce of Italy, the High Pontiff of Fascism throughout the world.
Adolph Hitler, for much of his political life, truly admired Mussolini. And whatever faults Mussolini had, Hitler would just ascribe them to the weaknesses of his people, not to Il Duce himself.
Adolph Hitler isn't going to let Mussolini go hang, politically or militarily! As far as Hitler is concerned, the Axis is like the Mafia. Once in, never out. Even OTL, when the Italians were only contemplating surrender, Hitler and Goebbels were convinced the Italians were about to switch sides
en masse, populace, army, navy, air force, government, and all.
What was the ultimate tripwire for all this? For the German takeover of Italy?
Mussolini's fall. Once he was removed, Hitler gave his orders for the takeover to commence once all forces were in place to do so. The only thing more important to Hitler than crushing Bagdolio's Royalist government was securing Mussolini's rescue. When they were reunited, the emotion between the two was quite genuine (exhaustion and gratitude from Mussolini, shock at Mussolini's appearance from Hitler).
Adolf Hitler will NOT under any circumstance allow Mussolini's Italy to be lost, whatever goes on in Russia. Besides, compared to the size of the Russian Front, just a dozen or so divisions would be enough to stop the British cold at this point (at least in Sicily and the Italian mainland). As to the demands of the Luftwaffe? The Red Air Force is pretty much no more than of a nuisance at this point. The Germans can get air superiority, even air supremacy, anywhere in Russia they want, within logistical limits. So the Luftwaffe really isn't prevented from a heavy investment into the Med once Hitler gives the orders.
If the British go on the offensive in a region where
he can get at them, he will. Frex, Sicily, Italy, or the Greek mainland. He sees himself as someone with a lot of debts to collect from the British for the humiliations his army, navy, and air force have suffered (especially NA and Crete).
Terrain advantage to the Axis, the danger of the Axis gaining local air superiority (certainly air parity, and all that that entails), and German Army troops that will give a much better accounting of themselves than Italians trapped out in Sardinia and perhaps later Corsica.
Hitler
intervened in NA right from the middle of O'Connor's first offensive. The Heer was IN Sicily in time for Husky. In the invasion of Italy, hitting the beaches right at Salerno (as far as Hitler could go south without being cutoff).
I don't see Adolph Hitler "cutting his losses" when it comes to allowing the Allies to get strategic bomber bases close to Ploesti, or abandoning Il Duce and his country to the enemy, whatever his people might think about it.
How often did Adolph Hitler ever "cut his losses", except for the purpose of creating a reserve to crush a "betrayal" in his own rear? Like Italy's "betrayal"?
I'm not saying that the strategy for Italy was bad. Just the idea of fighting all the way up the peninsula, when at the end of it all you are facing is the Alps.

And handwaving away inevitable early German intervention is precisely that. Handwaving. The Germans will always be able to RAIL IN forces and supplies far far faster than the Allies can SHIP them in. Logistics are just so damned inconvenient sometimes. Most times. Every time.
