Update.
War had began and Japan now realized that perhaps they had taken a risk that was too big. Indeed three European powers stood united against them and while they might be able to get moral support from the Alliance, there was no guarantee that any of the Alliance powers would actually declare war on the Entente. Memories from the war were fresh in Europe and many would rather see a war be delayed a bit instead of it breaking out now. As a result Japan would have to fight on her own which they couldn’t do although in the short term they could indeed score some victories. France was very far away and although Russia was right on Japan’s border, most Russian troops had to be drawn from Europe as well. The Suez Canal allowed French ships to pass through, but only in ‘moderate’ amounts as Britain was very pro-Japan. British newspapers reported of the French and Russian bullies (little Spain was forgotten for a moment) ganging up on poor, little Japan, who was portrayed as a small nation who just wanted to help her Philippine brethren (even if the Filipino’s weren’t Japanese at all) which the bullies from France and Russia attempted to prevent. Of course France and Russia counter-acted this with their own propaganda which was decisively applauding their actions and played down Japanese strength and proclaimed that Japan had gone too far which meant they deserved a beating. This of course didn’t mean anything to the Alliance and so the propaganda war continued between the two sides, but the real war was of course what was important and this was what was about to happen as Japanese navies were off to the confrontation.
On June 15th, the Japanese navy landed in the Philippines, seizing the harbor of Manila in a brutal fight. The Spanish army had modernized but not enough to defeat the Japanese invaders. Manila fell within a few days and as Japanese landings swept the other islands, the Spanish fought themselves to a retreat into the wild inland. Farther west, Japanese landings occurred on the coast of Indochina where they quickly met French resistance. Here, Japan only managed to seize some coastal fortresses as most of the colony remained firm in French hands. The Japanese also invaded the Spanish concessions in China and in the north they crossed the border in Manchuria where they made some advances but nothing much. Thrilled by Japanese successes, Siam declared war on France as well on July 20th to aid Japan and get some glory of their own and territorial expansion in Indochina. France had taken various bits of the old Siamese nation over the past decades and now it was time for Siam to get it back and maybe even more. That was if Japan would permit it of course because the Japanese had their own designs set on Vietnam. That was made clear as Japan brought a list of her claims into the world on July 27th. They claimed Vietnam, the Spanish Philippines and the Spanish and French concessions in China. From Russia they intended to obtain northern Manchuria but Tokyo later realized that it would be better to push for a white peace instead because then Russia would stop the war sooner which was not really all that popular in St. Petersburg as they felt that they had been dragged into the war to protect some far-away Spanish colonial outpost dating from what was nearly the Middle Ages. Despite this the Entente stood strong and even the Russians couldn’t say they weren’t in the least interested in gaining Japanese soil.
The war in the east was now going on for two months and it was becoming clear that the Japanese strike had failed. Sure, a lot of territory had fallen into their hands, but neither Indochina or the Philippines had been conquered in full and guerilla resistance was around in both areas. The revolts in the Philippines were helping them at least but even there some revolutionaries were unsure whether or not to side with Japan. Indochina was much closer to the French state than the Philippines were to Spain and thus the Indochinese did not revolt in any major way. The Siamese and Japanese armies desperately attempted to link up but the few Japanese beachheads in the area remained tightly guarded by French forces and France held. In the Philippines, Japan managed to conquer most of Mindanao over July, reducing resistance to the Zamboanga and Bataan peninsula’s, as well as the jungle of Luzon. At this point, the French Far Eastern Squadron had arrived in the east, along with the first French colonial armies. August would be the month in which the tide turned against Japan and Siam as the Japanese couldn’t hold out against the superior numbers that France, Spain and Russia possessed together. Also Japan wasn’t as modern as France yet although it had more or less surpassed Russia by now in terms of strength. Russia however had modernized a little as well and was backed by strong allies. The Russian army attacked in Manchuria and drove the Japanese back to their pre-war possessions even though they could not advance much further and only marched on slow thanks to Japanese strength. The Russian fortress in Port Arthur was reinforced and Japan soon could no longer attack it as they needed all the power they had to fight on other fronts. In the south, France had struck westwards and retaken the territory Siam had captured earlier that year. The Siamese army was no match for France and within weeks they were tied up in Bangkok which was the capital of Siam. At this point Siam surrendered on October 1st 1902. They signed a separate peace with France which turned the remaining Thai possessions in Cambodia and almost all of Isan (eastern Siam) over to French Indochina. At first, France had intended to establish a protectorate over the whole of Siam, but British intervention kept Siam alive, even if they had to cede some southern border areas in exchange for British help. The new northern border of British Malaya came to be at the provinces of Trang, Phattalung and Songkhla. All in all Siam had been reduced to almost half it’s former size and had lost the ability to fight back. That was what Boulanger thought, at least. Whether it would be the reality was jet to be determined at this point in time. For now, France could focus on the main enemy: Japan.
By mid-November, Japanese armies had been forced to withdraw from the mainland of Indochina and China proper, causing them to settle on the island of Hainan instead. Hainan was part of the Spanish sphere of influence in China and soon would be under their control again as France attacked in a vicious campaign with many Japanese casualties. In early December, the last Japanese fortress on Hainan surrendered and the island was returned to Spain. This made the Philippines be the last Japanese hold-out outside of the Japanese Empire itself along with Korea as Russia had finally succeeded in invading Manchuria. Russian forces got bogged down in Korea though as it was highly mountainous and thus perfect terrain for the defensive power. 1902 ended after a last Japanese offensive in the Philippines which failed to break the defenses of Bataan. Japan was now definitely losing the war. As 1903 began, it would soon become obvious how bad they had lost.
On the other side of the world, Germany decided to profit from the Franco-Japanese conflict. With French armies being so far away, Germany was in a position to get away with nearly anything in Europe and North-Africa and ‘nearly anything’ included Morocco. Morocco had been an independent nation for quite some time now and France had considered annexing it several times over the past years. Out of fear for Britain they had always avoided it but Germany had nothing to fear from the British Empire as it was their main ally. A German battleship arrived in Morocco in January 1903 with a set of demands that the sultan simply could not accept. The incident was made to become a crisis and Germany declared war on Morocco. The German army was sent to the area and quickly defeated the Moroccan forces, scoring an important propaganda victory. Boulanger knew that he couldn’t resist the establishment of the protectorate of Morocco but did demand the cession of a coastal strip to Spain and a few minor border corrections to France itself. This was something that Germany was willing to grant and it was finalized in a treaty between Germany, Spain, Morocco and France on May 27th, 1903. By that time, more interesting things had occurred in Asia.
It had by now become obvious to Japan that no British or German help was coming any time soon as these powers simply lacked a good casus belli to interfere and public opinion was against war so early, especially in Britain where hatred against the Triple Entente was much lower than in Germany. As for neutrals close to Japan, the only great power around was China, where the Guangxi Emperor and the entire court in Beijing were enjoying the fact that their Japanese enemy was getting a much-deserved beating. Pro-Entente sentiment improved even if China’s coast was carved up in Entente and Alliance influence spheres. France was not disappointing the Chinese as in February 1903 they started a broad offensive in the southern island of Mindanao along with Spanish forces that were still stationed there. France by now outnumbered Japan 2.5 to 1 and then there were the Spanish garrisons that remained. All in all, Japan couldn’t resist this charge and had to face defeat after defeat. It didn’t help that they had to fight Filipino independence movements who were against both sides and wanted an independent Philippine nation. By the end of March however both Japanese and Filipino resistance had been crushed and Spain was in full control of Mindanao again. What followed was an island hopping campaign which would crush the resistance of Japan in just weeks although one has to account for the fact that Japan was fighting a two-front war. In late April France was readying itself and Spain for the liberation of Luzon, the biggest island of the Philippines and the island that hosted the capital of Manila. The situation for the Japanese was bleak – even if Bataan had surrendered in February after a long struggle and was now under the command of the Emperor in Tokyo, Japan was otherwise in a very bad position with French/Spanish naval superiority making supply lines bad and the ongoing guerilla campaign in the centre of the island. If Luzon was attacked, it was uncertain whether it would hold.
Public opinion in Japan had by now swung against the war decisively. Various political parties called for an end to the war of imperialism which wasn’t bringing Japan any good and had not succeeded in decisively liberating the Filipinos or expanding the Japanese Empire. The truth was that the government was in fact trying to seek a peace treaty and had been doing so ever since the arrival of French forces in the far east. In the September peace offer, they had offered to withdraw from all occupied areas in Indochina and China and restrict Japanese gains to the Philippines only. In December, they had offered a ‘division of the Philippines’ plan with the southern half going to Spain and the north to Japan. While the Spanish liked the idea, the French and especially Boulanger did not, and although a lot of bad information concerning Boulanger can be chalked up to revisionist Alliance historians trying to make the First Great War seem like a just cause, this stubbornness can’t be denied. Boulanger demanded colonial gains at a point where Japanese occupation was still in force in many areas and this just couldn’t be accepted, not so early in the war. That was why the Japanese-Entente War would drag on for a while yet.
Russia had seen a slow advance in Korea over the past half year and Japan was by now definitely losing. Although a few attempts of the Russian navy to take the Kuril islands had failed, the war was now definitely turning against Japan in Korea. The northern half of the peninsula had been taken and Seoul was finally attacked on May 12th although it wouldn’t fall for another two weeks. The long-awaited invasion of Luzon started on May 17th and saw a quick French advance which allowed contact with the inland Spanish armies and liberated the island in just two weeks. The Bataan peninsula held out until June 10th by which time most of the other cities had already been taken. The Franco-Spanish army now advanced towards Manila which finally fell on June 23rd, ending the Philippine campaign after a full year and tens of thousands of casualties.
By now the Japanese situation was bad and only went from bad to worse. Formosa fell in July/August. In Korea, the frontline was withdrawn to a foothold around Pusan in late August and when on September 5th French armies landed on the Ryukyu chain, the Japanese peace faction won out as peace had to be made at any cost. Japan offered a surrender based on the Home Islands remaining Japanese, which was granted by Russia and Spain and finally by a reluctant France. A peace was drawn up in January 1904 which divided the Japanese empire as it had expanded over the past fifty years. The treaty was harsh but Japan deserved it according to the Entente as, next to the horrible acts they had committed in the war, a Japanese extreme nationalist had also managed to assassinate Grand Duke Michael, brother to the Emperor of all Russia’s, Tsar Nicholas II, in December 1903. His brothers Nicholas and George, insisted on harsh punishment for the Japanese for murdering a Russian prince which was partly why Russia was given more territory than it had conquered. The peace treaty was in the end the following: the Spanish Philippines and French Indochina were confirmed as they were, and all other pre-war territory returned, with the peace treaty of France and Siam being recognized. In addition, France seized Formosa and the Japanese concession in Zhejiang while Russia took all of Manchuria as an influence sphere and annexed the Kuril Island chain (including the four southern islands) and took over the Japanese protectorate over Korea. War reparations were agreed upon as well and Japan was to formally acknowledge that they started the war due to their expansionist imperialism. This was the peace treaty that was signed in Vladivostok and this was the peace that would have consequences for the next few years yet to come.
The peace of Vladivostok set the alliances in the far east. China was impressed by the achievements of the Entente and offered to join their side. China was formally admitted in October 1904 creating the Quadruple Entente which now consisted of France, Russia, Spain and China. China was weak but the fact that Empress Cixi had been killed in the Boxer uprising made that the Guangxi Emperor was now much more free to do what he wished and he wished to modernize China and put it on equal footing with the west again and ideally he wanted to make China one of the world’s superpowers but for now that chance was small. France was eager to have China in their alliance and to further strengthen Franco-Chinese ties Boulanger agreed to cede the formerly Japanese concession of Zhejiang back to China which gladly accepted the gift. Russia did a similar thing by ceding western Xinjiang back to China and renouncing all claims to Mongolia. They didn’t renounce their other claims as for Russia Manchuria was the only way to keep a tight leash on Korea and for France the southern concessions were a buffer which the Alliance would have to pass to invade the north of French Indochina and they preferred to keep it in their own hands for now as they weren’t sure whether China could be trusted. Never mind that China was now a member of the Entente which made Japan join the Alliance which formally happened in March 1905 with the signing of the Quintuple Alliance of Britain, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary and Japan. Siam was offered to become an associate (it wasn’t important enough to become a sixth member as it wasn’t anywhere close to being a great power) but refused for now as they were turning inwards for reform and resented the British profiting of their defeat in 1902 by annexing the southern provinces. They did remain closer to the Alliance than to the Entente countries though and Siamese-Alliance relations were warm. Siam remained neutral for now but would surely strike when they would be given the chance to do so.
Victory over Germany in 1890 and Japan now made France overconfident and made Belgium, which was surrounded by their southern neighbor at all her borders, join the Entente even if they remained an associate. Belgium allowed French forces on her soil after a lot of persuasion which turned Brussels into a loyal vassal of Paris and expanded the de facto Entente power. The Alliance however had the friendship of Portugal, the Ottomans and the Swedes. Portugal formally joined the Alliance in January 1906 which created the Sextuple Alliance. The Portuguese and the British had age-old ties and thus it was natural that they would fight alongside their British allies even if their borders were dangerously exposed to Spanish armies. Spain however had more fronts to fight as it had to follow France and would probably have to supply forces to the Franco-German or the Franco-Italian front in case of war. The French did a final attempt to woo some neutrals into their alliance but Denmark refused to join the Entente even if the promise of all of Schleswig-Holstein did tempt them. The Danes rightfully feared Germany and in the end France decided not to pressure Copenhagen any further as Denmark in the Entente would remove all friendly feelings in Sweden. Boulanger did an attempt to convince the Netherlands to join as well as it was an important border nation but the Dutch were just too pro-German and would see their colonies threatened in case of a war with the Alliance. They politely refused joining. Finally there was the United States of America which was still neutral but had good ties with both sides even if the British overconfidence was becoming too much sometimes and relations with the Entente had improved after the Cuba Purchase. The USA refused to become part of any alliance and instead committed itself to isolationism which they would hold during the entire war.
A power that would join the Entente was Ethiopia. The Ethiopians had been eying the Italian possessions in Africa warily over the past few years and Ethiopia desired to confirm her status as a modern nation which would include Eritrea. France agreed to recognize Ethiopian claims and signed the French-Ethiopian Alliance of 1906. Ethiopia was now an informal member of the Entente which greatly pleased the Italians as they thought that the country was weak even if Ethiopia had beaten them in 1896. The government in Addis Abeba on the other hand relied fully on that victory and thought that this time victory would be as easy, especially with French forces fighting in Africa. Either way, Ethiopia became a French puppet and a loyal associate of the Entente.
The Entente was industrializing and doing so at a rapid pace. By now Spain had been modernized and brought to more or less French standards even if some conservative remnant remained here and there. Russia was much harder to modernize but here some works of Boulanger’s inexhaustible government was paying off as well while China was just starting her modernization process and had a long way to go before they could properly expel the Alliance armies from their soil and re-unify China. All of this worried Germany and Britain, the most prominent members of the Quadruple Alliance. Wilhelm III of Germany and Edward VII of Britain agreed that action should be taken against the Entente build-up and that if war was to happen, it should be sooner rather than later. Fear of Chinese modernization strengthened this position in the Alliance and for Germany it was about time to take revenge for the Second Franco-German War.
In 1908 it would all come to blows although something else occurred first. The Ottoman Empire was by now old and had become the ‘sick man of Europe’. The Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878 had liberated parts of the Balkans, but, among others, Albania, Macedonia, Thrace and Kosovo remained in the hands of the Porte. Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro agreed that this situation could not be tolerated and decided to go to action in the summer of 1908. An incident on the Ottoman-Bulgarian border was exaggerated into the extreme and finally the Ottoman sultan decided that enough was enough and refused the ultimatums of the Balkan powers. He would come to regret that though as on August 29th, 1908, Bulgaria declared war and was followed by Greece, Serbia and Montenegro over the next few days. The various nations mobilized their armies and soon the Ottomans suffered disastrous defeats. Albania was liberated by early October and very soon Eastern Thrace was all that remained from the Ottoman possessions in Europe and Greece had also liberated Crete. The Austro-Hungarian Empire took advantage of the situation by formally annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina which they had occupied since 1878. This angered Serbia and Russia but neither declared war over the issue yet as Russia was not sure whether they would have French support and Serbia had another war to fight. The Ottomans were losing though and they were losing badly. Despite this they did not surrender and that would turn out to be a wise action even though it did not seem so in the autumn of 1908.
Tensions between the Quadruple Entente and the Sextuple Alliance were rising and eventually they would come to a clash. British and Russian interests in Persia no longer managed to bear each other’s presence any longer as both desired to rule the country. Japan and Germany were desperate to have revenge for their defeats at the hands of France and Russia. Italy had less hatred for the Entente but having been a solid part of the Alliance for years had somewhat softened their hatred for Austria and nationalist propaganda swept the country which included themes as the French annexation of Nice-Savoy in 1860, the recent annexation of Tunisia in 1881, and, farther away, the Corsican independence struggle in the 18th Century, where the Corsicans (or so Italian propaganda said) had been fighting to become part of a united Italy, a strong Italy, an Italy that had never been because of the acts of the evil French. 1896 and Adowa were also remembered and called for revenge. Either way, time was running out for peace. War had to be made to decide which of the two power blocks would rule Eurasia.
The casus belli would eventually be found in Africa. The Congo Free State had been an independent nation since 1885 but it was ruled by Leopold II of Belgium and thus had been a Belgian puppet from the start. Leopold had misbehaved as a ruler and horrible atrocities were being committed in the Congo. In the mid-1900s the European powers eventually decided that enough was enough. This couldn’t be tolerated. Leopold was forced to renounce his claims to the Congo, which left the question of who would take over the country. The obvious choice was Belgium, but that was soon no possibility as France claimed that they were the legal successor to the Congo state should it ever collapse, based on documents from the 1880s. They made puppet Belgium renounce her rights in favour of France. In the autumn of 1908 this all came to a clash as Britain and Germany could not tolerate more French expansion. French armies marched into the Congo and were met by British armies from Rhodesia in the Katanga region. Much like the Fashoda crisis, tensions rose and the two opponents stared at each other. Unlike the Fashoda crisis, this would however not be solved as on September 27th, 1908, a French soldier with an itchy trigger finger accidentally pulled the trigger which resulted in a shooting incident. Britain, eager to exploit the crisis, declared war on France two days later. Russia declared war on October 1st which set off the chain reaction of all alliance systems. In a strategic move, the Ottoman Empire declared war on Russia on October 20th which more or less forced the Alliance to recognize the Ottomans as one of their own and thus the attacking Balkan nations as enemies which they had to chase out of Ottoman soil.
By this point, the war was already in full swing though. Shortly after the German declaration of war on Russia, France had declared war on Germany, forced her puppet Belgium to do the same, and crossed the Dutch border on October 5th 1908 with two Belgian armies at her flanks which caused the Dutch to declare war on them and to end their neutrality. The First World War had finally began.
Chapter II: The Japanese-Entente War and the road to a worldwide war, 1902-1908
War had began and Japan now realized that perhaps they had taken a risk that was too big. Indeed three European powers stood united against them and while they might be able to get moral support from the Alliance, there was no guarantee that any of the Alliance powers would actually declare war on the Entente. Memories from the war were fresh in Europe and many would rather see a war be delayed a bit instead of it breaking out now. As a result Japan would have to fight on her own which they couldn’t do although in the short term they could indeed score some victories. France was very far away and although Russia was right on Japan’s border, most Russian troops had to be drawn from Europe as well. The Suez Canal allowed French ships to pass through, but only in ‘moderate’ amounts as Britain was very pro-Japan. British newspapers reported of the French and Russian bullies (little Spain was forgotten for a moment) ganging up on poor, little Japan, who was portrayed as a small nation who just wanted to help her Philippine brethren (even if the Filipino’s weren’t Japanese at all) which the bullies from France and Russia attempted to prevent. Of course France and Russia counter-acted this with their own propaganda which was decisively applauding their actions and played down Japanese strength and proclaimed that Japan had gone too far which meant they deserved a beating. This of course didn’t mean anything to the Alliance and so the propaganda war continued between the two sides, but the real war was of course what was important and this was what was about to happen as Japanese navies were off to the confrontation.
On June 15th, the Japanese navy landed in the Philippines, seizing the harbor of Manila in a brutal fight. The Spanish army had modernized but not enough to defeat the Japanese invaders. Manila fell within a few days and as Japanese landings swept the other islands, the Spanish fought themselves to a retreat into the wild inland. Farther west, Japanese landings occurred on the coast of Indochina where they quickly met French resistance. Here, Japan only managed to seize some coastal fortresses as most of the colony remained firm in French hands. The Japanese also invaded the Spanish concessions in China and in the north they crossed the border in Manchuria where they made some advances but nothing much. Thrilled by Japanese successes, Siam declared war on France as well on July 20th to aid Japan and get some glory of their own and territorial expansion in Indochina. France had taken various bits of the old Siamese nation over the past decades and now it was time for Siam to get it back and maybe even more. That was if Japan would permit it of course because the Japanese had their own designs set on Vietnam. That was made clear as Japan brought a list of her claims into the world on July 27th. They claimed Vietnam, the Spanish Philippines and the Spanish and French concessions in China. From Russia they intended to obtain northern Manchuria but Tokyo later realized that it would be better to push for a white peace instead because then Russia would stop the war sooner which was not really all that popular in St. Petersburg as they felt that they had been dragged into the war to protect some far-away Spanish colonial outpost dating from what was nearly the Middle Ages. Despite this the Entente stood strong and even the Russians couldn’t say they weren’t in the least interested in gaining Japanese soil.
The war in the east was now going on for two months and it was becoming clear that the Japanese strike had failed. Sure, a lot of territory had fallen into their hands, but neither Indochina or the Philippines had been conquered in full and guerilla resistance was around in both areas. The revolts in the Philippines were helping them at least but even there some revolutionaries were unsure whether or not to side with Japan. Indochina was much closer to the French state than the Philippines were to Spain and thus the Indochinese did not revolt in any major way. The Siamese and Japanese armies desperately attempted to link up but the few Japanese beachheads in the area remained tightly guarded by French forces and France held. In the Philippines, Japan managed to conquer most of Mindanao over July, reducing resistance to the Zamboanga and Bataan peninsula’s, as well as the jungle of Luzon. At this point, the French Far Eastern Squadron had arrived in the east, along with the first French colonial armies. August would be the month in which the tide turned against Japan and Siam as the Japanese couldn’t hold out against the superior numbers that France, Spain and Russia possessed together. Also Japan wasn’t as modern as France yet although it had more or less surpassed Russia by now in terms of strength. Russia however had modernized a little as well and was backed by strong allies. The Russian army attacked in Manchuria and drove the Japanese back to their pre-war possessions even though they could not advance much further and only marched on slow thanks to Japanese strength. The Russian fortress in Port Arthur was reinforced and Japan soon could no longer attack it as they needed all the power they had to fight on other fronts. In the south, France had struck westwards and retaken the territory Siam had captured earlier that year. The Siamese army was no match for France and within weeks they were tied up in Bangkok which was the capital of Siam. At this point Siam surrendered on October 1st 1902. They signed a separate peace with France which turned the remaining Thai possessions in Cambodia and almost all of Isan (eastern Siam) over to French Indochina. At first, France had intended to establish a protectorate over the whole of Siam, but British intervention kept Siam alive, even if they had to cede some southern border areas in exchange for British help. The new northern border of British Malaya came to be at the provinces of Trang, Phattalung and Songkhla. All in all Siam had been reduced to almost half it’s former size and had lost the ability to fight back. That was what Boulanger thought, at least. Whether it would be the reality was jet to be determined at this point in time. For now, France could focus on the main enemy: Japan.
By mid-November, Japanese armies had been forced to withdraw from the mainland of Indochina and China proper, causing them to settle on the island of Hainan instead. Hainan was part of the Spanish sphere of influence in China and soon would be under their control again as France attacked in a vicious campaign with many Japanese casualties. In early December, the last Japanese fortress on Hainan surrendered and the island was returned to Spain. This made the Philippines be the last Japanese hold-out outside of the Japanese Empire itself along with Korea as Russia had finally succeeded in invading Manchuria. Russian forces got bogged down in Korea though as it was highly mountainous and thus perfect terrain for the defensive power. 1902 ended after a last Japanese offensive in the Philippines which failed to break the defenses of Bataan. Japan was now definitely losing the war. As 1903 began, it would soon become obvious how bad they had lost.
On the other side of the world, Germany decided to profit from the Franco-Japanese conflict. With French armies being so far away, Germany was in a position to get away with nearly anything in Europe and North-Africa and ‘nearly anything’ included Morocco. Morocco had been an independent nation for quite some time now and France had considered annexing it several times over the past years. Out of fear for Britain they had always avoided it but Germany had nothing to fear from the British Empire as it was their main ally. A German battleship arrived in Morocco in January 1903 with a set of demands that the sultan simply could not accept. The incident was made to become a crisis and Germany declared war on Morocco. The German army was sent to the area and quickly defeated the Moroccan forces, scoring an important propaganda victory. Boulanger knew that he couldn’t resist the establishment of the protectorate of Morocco but did demand the cession of a coastal strip to Spain and a few minor border corrections to France itself. This was something that Germany was willing to grant and it was finalized in a treaty between Germany, Spain, Morocco and France on May 27th, 1903. By that time, more interesting things had occurred in Asia.
It had by now become obvious to Japan that no British or German help was coming any time soon as these powers simply lacked a good casus belli to interfere and public opinion was against war so early, especially in Britain where hatred against the Triple Entente was much lower than in Germany. As for neutrals close to Japan, the only great power around was China, where the Guangxi Emperor and the entire court in Beijing were enjoying the fact that their Japanese enemy was getting a much-deserved beating. Pro-Entente sentiment improved even if China’s coast was carved up in Entente and Alliance influence spheres. France was not disappointing the Chinese as in February 1903 they started a broad offensive in the southern island of Mindanao along with Spanish forces that were still stationed there. France by now outnumbered Japan 2.5 to 1 and then there were the Spanish garrisons that remained. All in all, Japan couldn’t resist this charge and had to face defeat after defeat. It didn’t help that they had to fight Filipino independence movements who were against both sides and wanted an independent Philippine nation. By the end of March however both Japanese and Filipino resistance had been crushed and Spain was in full control of Mindanao again. What followed was an island hopping campaign which would crush the resistance of Japan in just weeks although one has to account for the fact that Japan was fighting a two-front war. In late April France was readying itself and Spain for the liberation of Luzon, the biggest island of the Philippines and the island that hosted the capital of Manila. The situation for the Japanese was bleak – even if Bataan had surrendered in February after a long struggle and was now under the command of the Emperor in Tokyo, Japan was otherwise in a very bad position with French/Spanish naval superiority making supply lines bad and the ongoing guerilla campaign in the centre of the island. If Luzon was attacked, it was uncertain whether it would hold.
Public opinion in Japan had by now swung against the war decisively. Various political parties called for an end to the war of imperialism which wasn’t bringing Japan any good and had not succeeded in decisively liberating the Filipinos or expanding the Japanese Empire. The truth was that the government was in fact trying to seek a peace treaty and had been doing so ever since the arrival of French forces in the far east. In the September peace offer, they had offered to withdraw from all occupied areas in Indochina and China and restrict Japanese gains to the Philippines only. In December, they had offered a ‘division of the Philippines’ plan with the southern half going to Spain and the north to Japan. While the Spanish liked the idea, the French and especially Boulanger did not, and although a lot of bad information concerning Boulanger can be chalked up to revisionist Alliance historians trying to make the First Great War seem like a just cause, this stubbornness can’t be denied. Boulanger demanded colonial gains at a point where Japanese occupation was still in force in many areas and this just couldn’t be accepted, not so early in the war. That was why the Japanese-Entente War would drag on for a while yet.
Russia had seen a slow advance in Korea over the past half year and Japan was by now definitely losing. Although a few attempts of the Russian navy to take the Kuril islands had failed, the war was now definitely turning against Japan in Korea. The northern half of the peninsula had been taken and Seoul was finally attacked on May 12th although it wouldn’t fall for another two weeks. The long-awaited invasion of Luzon started on May 17th and saw a quick French advance which allowed contact with the inland Spanish armies and liberated the island in just two weeks. The Bataan peninsula held out until June 10th by which time most of the other cities had already been taken. The Franco-Spanish army now advanced towards Manila which finally fell on June 23rd, ending the Philippine campaign after a full year and tens of thousands of casualties.
By now the Japanese situation was bad and only went from bad to worse. Formosa fell in July/August. In Korea, the frontline was withdrawn to a foothold around Pusan in late August and when on September 5th French armies landed on the Ryukyu chain, the Japanese peace faction won out as peace had to be made at any cost. Japan offered a surrender based on the Home Islands remaining Japanese, which was granted by Russia and Spain and finally by a reluctant France. A peace was drawn up in January 1904 which divided the Japanese empire as it had expanded over the past fifty years. The treaty was harsh but Japan deserved it according to the Entente as, next to the horrible acts they had committed in the war, a Japanese extreme nationalist had also managed to assassinate Grand Duke Michael, brother to the Emperor of all Russia’s, Tsar Nicholas II, in December 1903. His brothers Nicholas and George, insisted on harsh punishment for the Japanese for murdering a Russian prince which was partly why Russia was given more territory than it had conquered. The peace treaty was in the end the following: the Spanish Philippines and French Indochina were confirmed as they were, and all other pre-war territory returned, with the peace treaty of France and Siam being recognized. In addition, France seized Formosa and the Japanese concession in Zhejiang while Russia took all of Manchuria as an influence sphere and annexed the Kuril Island chain (including the four southern islands) and took over the Japanese protectorate over Korea. War reparations were agreed upon as well and Japan was to formally acknowledge that they started the war due to their expansionist imperialism. This was the peace treaty that was signed in Vladivostok and this was the peace that would have consequences for the next few years yet to come.
The peace of Vladivostok set the alliances in the far east. China was impressed by the achievements of the Entente and offered to join their side. China was formally admitted in October 1904 creating the Quadruple Entente which now consisted of France, Russia, Spain and China. China was weak but the fact that Empress Cixi had been killed in the Boxer uprising made that the Guangxi Emperor was now much more free to do what he wished and he wished to modernize China and put it on equal footing with the west again and ideally he wanted to make China one of the world’s superpowers but for now that chance was small. France was eager to have China in their alliance and to further strengthen Franco-Chinese ties Boulanger agreed to cede the formerly Japanese concession of Zhejiang back to China which gladly accepted the gift. Russia did a similar thing by ceding western Xinjiang back to China and renouncing all claims to Mongolia. They didn’t renounce their other claims as for Russia Manchuria was the only way to keep a tight leash on Korea and for France the southern concessions were a buffer which the Alliance would have to pass to invade the north of French Indochina and they preferred to keep it in their own hands for now as they weren’t sure whether China could be trusted. Never mind that China was now a member of the Entente which made Japan join the Alliance which formally happened in March 1905 with the signing of the Quintuple Alliance of Britain, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary and Japan. Siam was offered to become an associate (it wasn’t important enough to become a sixth member as it wasn’t anywhere close to being a great power) but refused for now as they were turning inwards for reform and resented the British profiting of their defeat in 1902 by annexing the southern provinces. They did remain closer to the Alliance than to the Entente countries though and Siamese-Alliance relations were warm. Siam remained neutral for now but would surely strike when they would be given the chance to do so.
Victory over Germany in 1890 and Japan now made France overconfident and made Belgium, which was surrounded by their southern neighbor at all her borders, join the Entente even if they remained an associate. Belgium allowed French forces on her soil after a lot of persuasion which turned Brussels into a loyal vassal of Paris and expanded the de facto Entente power. The Alliance however had the friendship of Portugal, the Ottomans and the Swedes. Portugal formally joined the Alliance in January 1906 which created the Sextuple Alliance. The Portuguese and the British had age-old ties and thus it was natural that they would fight alongside their British allies even if their borders were dangerously exposed to Spanish armies. Spain however had more fronts to fight as it had to follow France and would probably have to supply forces to the Franco-German or the Franco-Italian front in case of war. The French did a final attempt to woo some neutrals into their alliance but Denmark refused to join the Entente even if the promise of all of Schleswig-Holstein did tempt them. The Danes rightfully feared Germany and in the end France decided not to pressure Copenhagen any further as Denmark in the Entente would remove all friendly feelings in Sweden. Boulanger did an attempt to convince the Netherlands to join as well as it was an important border nation but the Dutch were just too pro-German and would see their colonies threatened in case of a war with the Alliance. They politely refused joining. Finally there was the United States of America which was still neutral but had good ties with both sides even if the British overconfidence was becoming too much sometimes and relations with the Entente had improved after the Cuba Purchase. The USA refused to become part of any alliance and instead committed itself to isolationism which they would hold during the entire war.
A power that would join the Entente was Ethiopia. The Ethiopians had been eying the Italian possessions in Africa warily over the past few years and Ethiopia desired to confirm her status as a modern nation which would include Eritrea. France agreed to recognize Ethiopian claims and signed the French-Ethiopian Alliance of 1906. Ethiopia was now an informal member of the Entente which greatly pleased the Italians as they thought that the country was weak even if Ethiopia had beaten them in 1896. The government in Addis Abeba on the other hand relied fully on that victory and thought that this time victory would be as easy, especially with French forces fighting in Africa. Either way, Ethiopia became a French puppet and a loyal associate of the Entente.
The Entente was industrializing and doing so at a rapid pace. By now Spain had been modernized and brought to more or less French standards even if some conservative remnant remained here and there. Russia was much harder to modernize but here some works of Boulanger’s inexhaustible government was paying off as well while China was just starting her modernization process and had a long way to go before they could properly expel the Alliance armies from their soil and re-unify China. All of this worried Germany and Britain, the most prominent members of the Quadruple Alliance. Wilhelm III of Germany and Edward VII of Britain agreed that action should be taken against the Entente build-up and that if war was to happen, it should be sooner rather than later. Fear of Chinese modernization strengthened this position in the Alliance and for Germany it was about time to take revenge for the Second Franco-German War.
In 1908 it would all come to blows although something else occurred first. The Ottoman Empire was by now old and had become the ‘sick man of Europe’. The Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878 had liberated parts of the Balkans, but, among others, Albania, Macedonia, Thrace and Kosovo remained in the hands of the Porte. Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro agreed that this situation could not be tolerated and decided to go to action in the summer of 1908. An incident on the Ottoman-Bulgarian border was exaggerated into the extreme and finally the Ottoman sultan decided that enough was enough and refused the ultimatums of the Balkan powers. He would come to regret that though as on August 29th, 1908, Bulgaria declared war and was followed by Greece, Serbia and Montenegro over the next few days. The various nations mobilized their armies and soon the Ottomans suffered disastrous defeats. Albania was liberated by early October and very soon Eastern Thrace was all that remained from the Ottoman possessions in Europe and Greece had also liberated Crete. The Austro-Hungarian Empire took advantage of the situation by formally annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina which they had occupied since 1878. This angered Serbia and Russia but neither declared war over the issue yet as Russia was not sure whether they would have French support and Serbia had another war to fight. The Ottomans were losing though and they were losing badly. Despite this they did not surrender and that would turn out to be a wise action even though it did not seem so in the autumn of 1908.
Tensions between the Quadruple Entente and the Sextuple Alliance were rising and eventually they would come to a clash. British and Russian interests in Persia no longer managed to bear each other’s presence any longer as both desired to rule the country. Japan and Germany were desperate to have revenge for their defeats at the hands of France and Russia. Italy had less hatred for the Entente but having been a solid part of the Alliance for years had somewhat softened their hatred for Austria and nationalist propaganda swept the country which included themes as the French annexation of Nice-Savoy in 1860, the recent annexation of Tunisia in 1881, and, farther away, the Corsican independence struggle in the 18th Century, where the Corsicans (or so Italian propaganda said) had been fighting to become part of a united Italy, a strong Italy, an Italy that had never been because of the acts of the evil French. 1896 and Adowa were also remembered and called for revenge. Either way, time was running out for peace. War had to be made to decide which of the two power blocks would rule Eurasia.
The casus belli would eventually be found in Africa. The Congo Free State had been an independent nation since 1885 but it was ruled by Leopold II of Belgium and thus had been a Belgian puppet from the start. Leopold had misbehaved as a ruler and horrible atrocities were being committed in the Congo. In the mid-1900s the European powers eventually decided that enough was enough. This couldn’t be tolerated. Leopold was forced to renounce his claims to the Congo, which left the question of who would take over the country. The obvious choice was Belgium, but that was soon no possibility as France claimed that they were the legal successor to the Congo state should it ever collapse, based on documents from the 1880s. They made puppet Belgium renounce her rights in favour of France. In the autumn of 1908 this all came to a clash as Britain and Germany could not tolerate more French expansion. French armies marched into the Congo and were met by British armies from Rhodesia in the Katanga region. Much like the Fashoda crisis, tensions rose and the two opponents stared at each other. Unlike the Fashoda crisis, this would however not be solved as on September 27th, 1908, a French soldier with an itchy trigger finger accidentally pulled the trigger which resulted in a shooting incident. Britain, eager to exploit the crisis, declared war on France two days later. Russia declared war on October 1st which set off the chain reaction of all alliance systems. In a strategic move, the Ottoman Empire declared war on Russia on October 20th which more or less forced the Alliance to recognize the Ottomans as one of their own and thus the attacking Balkan nations as enemies which they had to chase out of Ottoman soil.
By this point, the war was already in full swing though. Shortly after the German declaration of war on Russia, France had declared war on Germany, forced her puppet Belgium to do the same, and crossed the Dutch border on October 5th 1908 with two Belgian armies at her flanks which caused the Dutch to declare war on them and to end their neutrality. The First World War had finally began.