The Western Roman Empire survives in North Africa?

I have been developing an alternate history timeline that I plan to use as the basis for a mod for HOI Darkest Hour. The major point of divergence is 429, were the Vandals do not cross into Africa and remain in Hispania. I would like opinion and discussion on how different the world would be at the start of the 19th century if a Roman, Latin speaking state formed in North Africa from the remnants of the fallen Western Roman Empire.

North Africa was lost to the Roman Empire after the Vandals migrated en masse into the area, in 429, at the invitation of Bonifacius governor of the Diocese of Africa. The Vandals proceeded to conquer and establish their own kingdom in North Africa. It seems the loss of North Africa was a major blow to the survival of the Western Roman Empire. So what if the Vandal invasion never occurred?

So here is an alternate version of history. Lets say that Bonifacius never fell out of favor and thus never had to call on the Vandals as mercenaries. The Vandals remained in Hispania, and North Africa remained a vital part of the Western Roman Empire. The next 40 years go by pretty much as they actually did with Roman power quickly fading under constant infighting and barbarian invasions. Roman settlements in Hispania, Gaul, and Italia are in constant fear and turmoil. However in North Africa isolated by the sea the Romans continue to flourish, safe from the threat of barbarian attack. The relative calm and safety of the African provinces attract more and more refugees and settlers from other parts of the Empire. The Governor of North Africa becomes a more and more powerful figure in the Empire.

In 476 Odacer deposes Romulus Augustus and establishes control over the Italian peninsula. The Governor of Africa invites the Senate and anyone who can and will to relocate to Africa, an invitation that is supported by the Eastern Roman Emperor Zeno. The majority of the Senate, as well as thousands of other Romans from Italy, relocate to North Africa. After several decades and failed attempts to reestablish control over Italy the Romans in North Africa decide to abandon hope of reconquering the old empire and instead focus on surviving and flourishing in North Africa. This new Roman state stretches from the Atlantic coast to the border of the Eastern Empire, encompassing all of the territory that the Western Empire once controlled in North Africa.

If such a state managed to survive against all odds into the 20th century how would it have affected the rest of European and World history?

Some questions to ponder.

-The impact of Islam on this Roman state. Surely if such a state existed the struggle against Islam in North Africa would have defined it for centuries.
-If such a state existed would it have stopped Islam from reaching Iberia, and if so how different would the history of the Iberian peninsula be?
-Could they have converted to Islam?
-What would have happened to the Vandals if they stayed in Spain? Destroyed by the Visigoths?
-How would such a state affected the fate of the Eastern Roman Empire? Would the Eastern Roman Empire been able to survive longer?
-How would the history of the Catholic Church and Christianity in general been changed?
-How might the geography and climate of North Africa have affected this state?
-I believe there was quite a large population of Jews in Roman North Africa, if these Jews would have been accepted, tolerated, and valued as members of this new Roman state how might the history and tolerance of the Jewish people been different in Europe?
-What might the name of this African Roman state be? Would they have been ruled by an Emperor or a Senate? The capital in Carthage?
-Would this state have been isolated in North Africa or perhaps been a major player in European politics?
-I know its difficult to project but going later into European history how might such a state affected 17th, 18th or 19th century Europe? Or the colonization of the Americas?

I would love some input and help from this knowledgeable forum on just how this point of divergence might have changed the world up to the beginning of the 20th century, so I can develop a more clear and realistic alternate timeline.
 
It would be interesting to see the Romance language that would develop there, perhaps similarities with Sardinian and Sicilian?
 
If they are successful in keeping major Islam from going around them, this could lead to a much greater level of surviving socio-cultural unity in the Western Med, with major political implications. I think with North Africa not a part of the Big Bad Arab Empire, some Visigothic King is going to definitely try his hand at grabbing some pieces of Africa. Which in itself could really change the balance of Frankish dominance of Western Europe, where the Carolingians largely went without a major rival.

I've pondered some of these issues in the past for my own TL, and I wonder if trade routes might still bring Islam to Northwest Africa anyway, in Algeria and Morrocco (I'm imagining the Roman state focused on OTL Tunisia). But as one religion among many, leading to a diverse and politically complex society in that area.
 
It would be interesting to see the Romance language that would develop there, perhaps similarities with Sardinian and Sicilian?

I don't believe there's any surviving written examples of the OTL Romance language that did develop there after the collapse of the West (and which may have survived through as late as 1200 by some accounts). But I could be wrong.
 
Totally not an expert, but this POD interested me.

The settlement of Romans from Europe into North Africa really intrigues me. Perhaps there might be a 'Roman migration' that clears a significant amount of territory in Europe for barbarian settlement, and results in a more widespread Germanic influence in Europe. North Africa could become a repository of Roman scientific and technical knowledge.

I think this North African empire could have a very good chance at resisting an Islamic invasion IF they maintain good relationships (or at least avoid war) with the Eastern Roman Empire (which is possible, the ERE could end up focusing on the Persians as per OTL and leave the North African Empire to its own devices). Then, when the Muslims invade, they will face an empire that has a high, stable population and an infrastructure capable of getting troops and supplies delivered rapidly, and if there are wars with the Berbers, an army with experience fighting mounted troops coming in from the deserts.

It's not a guarantee, of course. And if the Muslims take Egypt, they will have access to a breadbasket that will allow them to take on the empire through sheer population pressure. Given continued pressure over the centuries, I think that even a surviving empire would eventually shrink to the Maghreb.

Religion wise, perhaps the Romans could convert to Islam but keep their language and culture, like in Persia. I think this would be more likely to occur if they had strife with the ERE, but as I said earlier this would probably lead to wars that would weaken them and lead to them being conquered anyway. Perhaps they could establish Coptic or some other 'heretic' view of Christianity as their state religion, giving them an identity separate from Islam and the ERE.

As for the discovery of the Americas, I don't think that their presence would affect it that much. The biggest effect I could see would be a Christian African Roman Empire losing control of the Saharan trade routes to Muslim peoples and deciding to sail down the coastline of Africa, and eventually accidentally discovering *Brazil earlier than OTL, how early depending on how rapidly oceangoing technology develops in the Atlantic ITTL. Once there, they could develop colonies based on growing sugarcane, cotton (they would have native varieties within the Empire, and could be interested in the *American varieties) and harvesting brazilwood for dye.
 
Well with a POD before 429, Islam is kaput. With a decent navy they should be able to fend Germanic forces off long enough to get established, the ERE might be a bigger challenge in the long term.

I'd be interesting if this resulted in Arianism surviving farther north...
 
The idea of a Roman exclave existing outside the fall of Rome has always been an intriguing one. North Africa seems as good a place as any, but it will need a powerful navy to protect itself. Africa was prosperous compared to the disintegrating Empire, and this will make it a target for more and more barbarian tribes. There's a timeline on here somewhere that sort of achieves what you propose. Except in that case it was Julius Nepos reconquering North Africa with the help of the East Empire and it enduring as an independent kingdom.

On another note how do you plan to make a classical mod for a WW2 game? I'm a big fan of Darkest Hour but it seems your task will be difficult.
 
I was under the impression that North Africa was never as thoroughly Romanized as SW Europe. Wasn't North Africa mostly inhabited by Berbers and Punic speakers up to the time of the Arab conquest?
 
There was definitely a Romance speaking community there. Though its spatial distribution and share of the population we cannot know. Unfortunately not a lot was ever written in Punic (at least that survives), and as such it's hard to say how long and in what state that language survived.
 
With no Vandals in North Africa WRE will have a definately stronger position - most possibly it will keep Italy.

Long term effects - ERE will be able to keep more attention to the East (especially Persia) so it'll change dynamics on Middle East tremendously. Most likely Islam - if it comes around - won't be able to break out of Arabia.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Ginormous butterflies most likely. Can the WRE keep Italy? If not, how do they lose it? And with the Vandals settling in Spain, you most likely have the Visigoths creating their empire in Catalunya and Occitania instead. Which of course means the Franks might not conquer these lands.
 
If the WRE is able to keep Africa then it is most likely that they will keep Italy too.
I guess it the Vandals remain in Spain then the Visigoths will stay in southern France and the Franks have to settle in northrn France, Burgundy will survive too.
IMO the WRE will get weaker and weaker even in there African holdings just like their other European possessions till someone comes from Egypt: i bet on the Arabs or a new Egyptian Nation. When the Arabs were conquering Egypt and Syria, the ERE was right in front of a fragmentation due to religious issues.
 
I would even take it further and suggest that if they never lose Africa to the Vandals, the WRE might have been able to pull through the 5th century crisis entirely. The loss of Africa badly damaged the fiscal 'spine' of the WRE and substantially reduced their ability to operate. If the Africa-Italy axis remains intact then perhaps one of the century's more competent Emperors can get the Gaul-Spain problem under control as well.

Majorian in large part lost his throne because his failed African expedition crashed his prestige, and made it easier for Ricimer to do away with him. No loss of Africa means no big disaster for Majorian, and time for a few more campaigns in Europe.
 
Thanks to all for your insight and replies.

The idea of a Roman exclave existing outside the fall of Rome has always been an intriguing one. North Africa seems as good a place as any, but it will need a powerful navy to protect itself. Africa was prosperous compared to the disintegrating Empire, and this will make it a target for more and more barbarian tribes. There's a timeline on here somewhere that sort of achieves what you propose. Except in that case it was Julius Nepos reconquering North Africa with the help of the East Empire and it enduring as an independent kingdom.

On another note how do you plan to make a classical mod for a WW2 game? I'm a big fan of Darkest Hour but it seems your task will be difficult.

I agree that a powerful navy would have been key for these Romans to protect themselves. And its not going to be a classical mod, its an alternate history mod, like Kaiserriech if you have ever played that. The mod will start in the 1930s but I just decided to make the POD much later than most people. I love Romans and playing with them in Darkest Hour would be awesome but I wanted to create a plausible alternate scenario were they could survive and North Africa seemed a great idea. BTW always good to meet another Darkest Hour fan.


The settlement of Romans from Europe into North Africa really intrigues me. Perhaps there might be a 'Roman migration' that clears a significant amount of territory in Europe for barbarian settlement, and results in a more widespread Germanic influence in Europe. North Africa could become a repository of Roman scientific and technical knowledge.

That exactly what I had imagined. With the Empire falling apart in Spain, Gaul, and Italy and North Africa relatively calm and prosperous I thought it might be an attractive spot for some Romans to relocate. It seems North Africa would be easier to defend as well rather than trying to hold onto the whole Empire. You think Germanic influence would have been greater as a result? Interesting. How do you think North Africa's geography and culture would influence the Romans?

As for the discovery of the Americas, I don't think that their presence would affect it that much. The biggest effect I could see would be a Christian African Roman Empire losing control of the Saharan trade routes to Muslim peoples and deciding to sail down the coastline of Africa, and eventually accidentally discovering *Brazil earlier than OTL, how early depending on how rapidly oceangoing technology develops in the Atlantic ITTL. Once there, they could develop colonies based on growing sugarcane, cotton (they would have native varieties within the Empire, and could be interested in the *American varieties) and harvesting brazilwood for dye.

Do you think this Roman state would have placed importance on colonizing the coast and interior of Africa before the rest of the European nations? Could they have reached India first?

I've pondered some of these issues in the past for my own TL, and I wonder if trade routes might still bring Islam to Northwest Africa anyway, in Algeria and Morrocco (I'm imagining the Roman state focused on OTL Tunisia). But as one religion among many, leading to a diverse and politically complex society in that area.

I was thinking this myself. Perhaps the Romans lose control of most of North Africa except Tunisia and the surrounding area. This would allow Islam to still spread to Northwest Africa and Iberia. Eventually if the Romans reconquered this area it would lead to a very culturally diverse state. Perhaps Islam, Christianity, and Judaism could have existed peacefully together in this Roman state.

I was under the impression that North Africa was never as thoroughly Romanized as SW Europe. Wasn't North Africa mostly inhabited by Berbers and Punic speakers up to the time of the Arab conquest?

It was not nearly as romanized as the rest of the Empire but there was a significant population of Roman people living in North Africa. From what I've read the Roman populations tended to be focused around urban centers and the coast with the Berbers and other peoples still living in the outlying areas largely independent of Roman rule.


I would even take it further and suggest that if they never lose Africa to the Vandals, the WRE might have been able to pull through the 5th century crisis entirely. The loss of Africa badly damaged the fiscal 'spine' of the WRE and substantially reduced their ability to operate. If the Africa-Italy axis remains intact then perhaps one of the century's more competent Emperors can get the Gaul-Spain problem under control as well.

I think that's kinda the problem though there weren't really any competent Emperors in the fifth century. You still have to contend with the Huns and other barbarians, constant infighting, incompetent leadership, and the myriad of other issues that plagued Rome during the fifth century. North Africa might have saved them a little longer but eventually I think Gaul, Spain, and Italy would eventually become too hard to defend. That's why I think North Africa being somewhat separated from the rest of Europe might have been the best option for a relocation and rebuilding project for the Romans.
 
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