The West is Red... and the East, and...

[Diamond]

I've been working over the last couple of days on a short story set in a world where communism is the dominant political creed. All I really have worked out for background so far is that Eugene Debs led a strong socialist movement before and during WWI (lifting a page from Newman & Byrne), Russia went red more or less on schedule, and WWII was fought between fascist (but not Nazi) Germany/France/Italy/Spain vs. an uneasy alliance of Britain and the two communist powers, USSA & USSR.

Does anybody have any ideas for a good POD and a subsequent chain of events that might lead to something like this? I'm not looking for you to write a TL for me, I just need some food for thought. Plus, I'm having trouble coming up with a plausible reason for Japan, a democratic China, and the USSR all existing somewhat peacefully side by side. (It's central to the story I'm writing.)

 

[Othniel]

Imperial Japan will no doubt be attacked by either the USSA, and the USSR. A democratic China would most likely be supported by Britian, whom I hope has the power in this timeline.

 

[GBW]

Hmm... China, either under the Manchu Dynasty or a new one akin to the Meiji Restoration, opens up to Western influence while Japan remains isolationist in the mid to late 19th century. China begins throwing its weight around and looking to exert its influence over historical territories and all of East Asia; Japan catches on later than OTL (1880s maybe) and overthrows the Shogunate and reestablishes the Empire. They modernize close to OTL, taking technologies/ideas from Western nations; in the end, though, Russia maintains the closest relations with Japan due to their common enemy in China and a Russo-Japanese Alliance is soon signed. War breaks out in the Far East at some point (in conjunction with a European war). Britain has maintained a close relationship with China but has a full plate with Europe and doesn't enter the Asian theatre, though they supply the Chinese. Russia breaks down into Red revolution and Civil War during the war but China has still been inflicted with heavy losses and Japan continues the struggle. China eventually breaks down into revolution as well and, by this time, the Bolsheviks have gained the upper hand in Russia. Japan fears for the spread of Communism into China and quickly ends the war, taking southern Korea and Formosa and mediating the cessation of East Turkestan to the newly formed Soviet Union. Japan installs a Nationalist government in Peking (lead by someone more capable than Chiang Kai-Shek) and tries to exert their influence over the European Asian colonies as the new master of Asia, but manages to only destabilize them further in an interwar period and breaks into constant small wars with Chinese forces. That's as far as I'll go there...

North America? The USA is cut off from expansion into the Pacific by the British-supported Kingdom of Hawaii in Britain's attempt to encircle the pro-Russian Japan. This difference manifests in the Spanish-American War that gains them Cuba and Puerto Rico and the Colombian War that gains all of Panama for the USA to create a canal, both within a short while and at the whim of the pro-Imperialists and robber barons looking for further economic expansion. This creates far more labor unrest and the blatant entry of the USA early into the European war against Britain and its allies via a pro-business President. American casualties mount and insurrections grow in their Latin American possessions, which are crushed ruthlessly and 'internment' camps, which are really concentration camps, are set up. Like Russia, the USA breaks into Red revolution and Britain quickly makes peace with the American government on the hopes of halting its spread, ceding most of Canada. The Communists gain the upper hand, however, and the American government is finally forced to flee to California where Britain supplies them via Hawaii and Mexico. A British-supplied Mexican invasion regains Mexico a portion of the Southwest before a treaty is signed in which the territorial adjustments, as well as the existence of the USSA and Republic of California, are recognized.

Good enough?

 

[Diamond]

That's a good start. It gives me some ideas to think about, anyway. The formation of the independent California is pretty much the way I'd envisaged it.

I like your Asian explanation - very creative. What about uber-Vietnam though? Maybe it's America backing a communist rebellion in Indochina, hoping to gain a foothold in Asia while China tries to prop up the democratic gov't there?

 

[GBW]

Sounds good to me, though that would start after the ATL's Second World War. I'm not even sure how the alliances in Europe during the First World War would work out... Probably similar to OTL, I suppose. France would likely experience a Red rebellion of their own, strong enough to scare the French into becoming extremely anti-Communist and willing to overlook past differences with Germany and settle their borders.

As for the bigger Vietnam, perhaps both China's saber-rattling and Japan's 'awakening' in the 19th century spook the Europeans and Britain allows France to absorb Siam into French Indochina.

 

[Scarecrow]

in the book 'back in the USSA' texas the US has the revolution in 1917 due to TR getting a second term, dying and a plutocrat takes over. dont know if they invade Canada, but Texas secedes during the 1917 revolution, and Al Capone is analogus to Stalin.

 

[Hendryk]

As for the bigger Vietnam, perhaps both China's saber-rattling and Japan's 'awakening' in the 19th century spook the Europeans and Britain allows France to absorb Siam into French Indochina.

Interesting suggestions have been made for this TL, but I'm not sure about this particular one. France may have absorbed Siam, but I don't see all of Indochina remaining united, especially as a "Greater Vietnam", until the present day. The Thais, Laotians and Cambodians aren't overly fond of the Vietnamese and would demand independence at some point, even at the cost of allying with the Socialist powers; plus Siam was a fairly respectable regional power, and should it be colonized by France or Britain it would likely be as a protectorate rather than an outright colony.

Edit: Hey, how about, for irony's sake, having the USSA getting involved in a war in Indochina to spread Communism there?

 

[PJ Norris]

i'm working on something - I'll be back.

 

[GBW]

Interesting suggestions have been made for this TL, but I'm not sure about this particular one. France may have absorbed Siam, but I don't see all of Indochina remaining united, especially as a "Greater Vietnam", until the present day. The Thais, Laotians and Cambodians aren't overly fond of the Vietnamese and would demand independence at some point, even at the cost of allying with the Socialist powers; plus Siam was a fairly respectable regional power, and should it be colonized by France or Britain it would likely be as a protectorate rather than an outright colony.

Well, I'm going with the way the map is. My thinking is that the 'awakening' of two East Asian powers that abruptly become anti-colonial (except for their own cases, of course), and one of them allying with Russia, might alarm the French and British enough to not allow for a third case to happen; and so the absorption of Siam into Indochina.

As for Vietnam staying that way into the present day, perhaps the USSA's involvement there (along with some limited USSR support) wouldn't be as openly covered by the media as OTL and so the tactics even more unrestrained than OTL. Present day, the ATL Vietnam might be a mess of a country with cities throughout Laos, Cambodia and Siam in ruins, a bloated Vietnamese military with American and Soviet 'advisors' and a leader equivalent to Stalin. Not to mention the occasional bombings that would take place in Saigon and other Vietnamese cities by Siamese, Laotion and Cambodian nationalists that are supplied by China and perhaps also Japan. So, the ATL Vietnam would be more of a catastrophe than a country.

 

[Diamond]

Present day, the ATL Vietnam might be a mess of a country with cities throughout Laos, Cambodia and Siam in ruins, a bloated Vietnamese military with American and Soviet 'advisors' and a leader equivalent to Stalin. Not to mention the occasional bombings that would take place in Saigon and other Vietnamese cities by Siamese, Laotion and Cambodian nationalists that are supplied by China and perhaps also Japan. So, the ATL Vietnam would be more of a catastrophe than a country.

Very nice. (Well, not nice nice, but you know what I mean ) I think I'm going to work on this tonite...

And don't take the map as gospel; I just threw it together to show some things I was thinking about for the TL. The only things set in stone are North America and Africa.

BTW, what's the thinking on the communist South Africa? They're the third point of the 'Red Triangle', along with the USSA and USSR. My preliminary thoughts for Africa were that after this TL's WWII, a lot of the AFrican colonial territory would be on the verge of going Red. So the European powers, to forestall this, de-colonialize and instead of abandoning them as in OTL, actively help build them into viable nations. South Africa had perhaps become communist during or just prior to WWII, and now they became THE Red power in Africa, just as the USSA is in North America and the USSR is in Asia. SA 'influences' a couple African nations to go Red, while Greater Nigeria and others become frantically industrializing nations heavily propped up by Britain and France.

 

[GBW]

Hmm... in OTL, the USA and USSR were seen as the two anti-colonial powers after WW2. In the ATL, perhaps in this spirit the two of them, spearheaded by the USSA, support and supply the native Africans of the European colonies, including South Africa, during the interwar period. The Communists gain a groundswell of support among the blacks in South Africa and, tied with restrictive policies towards nonwhites, open rebellion breaks out during the 1930s. This, along with Japan's maneuvering in Asia, is seriously going to hamper the European empires and make them more willing to look into dominion statuses and such, including British India. As an aside, Japan is likely going to have to take its current territory during the ATL WW2 and, without a large-scale conflict in China or with the USSA, is able to do better (the Philippines might remain Spanish up to then, or they might even be German). They might even be able to take the Kingdom of Hawaii.
As for South Africa, the South African government and military might get overwhelmed by the Communists during the ATL WW2 and Britain, allied with the USSA and USSR against the 'Fascist' threat on the Continent, is unable to do much to prevent it from happening. American advisors soon land in South Africa and begin helping them reorganize according to 'American Socialist' principles.

 

[B_Munro]

I'm puzzled by Germany: if the British-Communist alliance won WWII, I don't see why the Czechs are still part of Germany, and if the Fascists managed a peace of exhaustion of some sort [1], why Pomerania/East Prussia are part of Poland. (I suppose a stalemated fight along the current Polish-German border is a possible answer, but in any event, a stalemate is hard to pull off, especially if anybody develops atomic weapons).

The prevalence of democratic countries in Europe is less problematic: either the Fascist states slowly moved back in the direction of democracy, or the Soviets decided continuing to prop up unpopular Communist regimes in Europe was more trouble than it was worth (perhaps it's just the Americans now supporting the Vietnamese regime).

best,
Bruce

[1] Given the continued existence of the USSR, they obviously didn't _win_.

 

[PJ Norris]

I'm not revealing the course of events for everything else (which is real easy when you think about it) but I'm having heaps of trouble trying to get the USSA. Let's say the Zimmerman Telegram get's thru to Mexico. When the USA goes to war over the Louisiana Mexico declares war. After a series of disasters due to overconfidence the Americans are pushed back. And back, and back and back so by the time they can put any real defence they Mexicans are in California, Nevada, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas and Texas. The west is cut off. As the Mexicans turn east, Washington makes an armistice and the USA pays huge reperations for the war and loses Arizona and New Mexico.
This plus the Great Depression which is even worse than in RTL, makes communism more promising. A Second American Civil War (like the Russian one) ends in a Red USSA. California ends up like Taiwan.

Comments are welcome.

 

[DISSIDENT]

Perhaps a more suitable POD is the lack of trust-busting legislation, a stronger and unbridled set of robber barons, union-busting continuing unabated, no Pure Food and Drug Act, and an endless series of city-based party machinery prolongs the era of big-business dominance of US affairs. This would fuel the socialist movement immensely. Perhaps by the 1930s we can have situation ripe for armed revolt. I can see...workers lead by unions leading the charge, perhaps aided by a larger number of disgruntled and unpaid veterans of this TL's WW1 equivalent (the Bonus Army was quite racially integrated). American "communism" would be a very different animal from Soviet, Chinese or other types of communism as we knew it, probably using general strikes and social welfare programs, grassroots involvement, and central planning resembling a New Deal on steroids, and much more respect for individual liberty than any communism we've known. It would be more socialist than communist really.

 

[Othniel]

Upton Sinclair gets popular?

 

[Scarecrow]

I'm not revealing the course of events for everything else (which is real easy when you think about it) but I'm having heaps of trouble trying to get the USSA. Let's say the Zimmerman Telegram get's thru to Mexico. When the USA goes to war over the Louisiana Mexico declares war.

dont you mean the Lusitania?

 

[Hapsburg]

he might mean a ship called the USS or SS Louisiana

 

[Scarecrow]

thats what im saying. the Lusitania was the push (along with the Zimmerman telegram) for the US to go to War. the SS Louisiana was at the heart of the White Fleet "war" of 1912. its easy to get those two mixed up

 

[Straha]

Why not make the USSA merely be an authoritarian leftist police state than an outright totalitarian state? I don't see totalitarian communism as being plausible in the US but soem type of leftist police state could happen. THere could be elections and an approved set of popposition parties(that don't win). The governing Popular Front party could be the source of real politics with the different factions in it all competing for power.

 

[eschaton]

I don't think communism within the U.S. would even be authoritarian. My guess is it would be a multi-party system, but pro-worker/anti-boss language would be written into the constitution and unammendable. The major parties could be something along the lines of the populists and the socialists, with a more anarcho-syndicalist party as well. I think, given the U.S. history, it would be more decentralized as well, with the economy run on a state or municipal level rather than a national level.