The West Invades Arabia

So I've always been intrigued at the idea of an armed conflict between the west and Saudi Arabia, as I find the cultural implications to be incredibly fascinating. It's an Old Guard vs. New Wave battle if one ever existed. The Saudis arw, of course, devoutly Muslim and a theocratic absolute monarchy, complete with a religious police force, tribal fuedalism and the whole shabang. The West, on the other hand, is intensly secular and generally hostile towards ideas like monarchy, suppresion of female sexuality, religious laws and etc. Combine that with our (the wests) own struggle with the secular left vs. the Christian right and the secular lefts historic political alliances with Muslims, I find the discussions that would arise from such a conflict to be incredibly interesting and complex.

So far, I've narrowed down to two possible PODs. #1 being the a US or joint US-UK invasion of the Saudi kingdom over the 1973 oil embargo (which, allegedly, was actually highly considered by Nixon) and #2 being a US or joint US-NATO invasion in the aftermath of 9/11. So I have a few queations.

1.) Which POD is more likely?
2.) Which POD would be the most culturally signifigant? 73 would be right at the end pf the Counterculture, by 01 would be at the beginning of the modern millenial and generation z "counterculture". Which would have more effect on cultural dialogue?
3.) What exactly are thesw cultural dialogues?
4.) What is the reaction of the western Christian or Israel? Do any Islamic states come to the aid of the Saudis? Any non-Islamic states? Does anyone join the west?
5.) What is the chances of the monarchy surviving?

Discuss.
 
2001 would be more likely. If Nixon had invaded in '73 he would have faced incredible opposition and would have been accused of launching the invasion to distract from Watergate.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
Yeah, agreed, that 2001 is a lot more likely.

Bin Laden was Saudi,and so were 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers. If the Saudi's had supported Bin Laden, or members of a similar radical Islamic terrorist organization, it could have gone very badly for them. If Al-Qaeda were based in Yemen or one of the Persian Gulf states instead of Afghanistan/Pakistan . . . Then that country would have been invaded and Saudi Arabia would have been screwed by the fallout.

Not that I think the Persian Gulf countries would have wanted to sponsor Al-Qaeda openly, because they wanted to force all Muslims back to Middle Ages and get rid of all Western influences. Bin Laden was 30 or 40 years too late to do that, the population had increased, and so had the standard of living, at least for most people.
 
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I disagree about plausibility of the 2001 POD. Saudi Arabia and the Saudi family in general are heavily reliant on US military hardware and support and if the US looked like it was willing to invade the Saudis would cave to pretty much all US terms and conditions. If the US was willing to go that far the Saudis would likely lock up anybody the US wanted.

With a post 9-11 POD there's no reason for a US invasion short of the Saudi royal family being overthrown by Islamic radicals simply because the Saudis will already do what the Americans want.
 
There would be backlash from a portion of the royal family, but SA would've been the correct choice of a target, since controlling that means extremist groups would not be able to get financed by wealthy individuals so easily. The positive impact of reactionary assholes not controlling Mecca and Medina would be big, as well.
 
Israel's position is to oppose the invasion, surprising as it may sound. Saudi Arabia is, in 2001, the biggest counterweight to Iran in the Persian Gulf, not to mention that Saudi Arabia imploding would leave Saddam and Syria with far more leeway.

EDIT: Minor correction - the biggest rival to Iran in 2001 was Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Yes, the man was no friend of the Gulf States, and his nation was a mess due to a decade of embargoes and the First Gulf War destroying his army. However, he was still Iran's biggest obstacle in the region.

Of course, that doesn't mean that destroying the Saudi Royal Family won't help Iran. They're Iran's other big rival in the region, becoming the main opponent once the Baathist regime in Iraq fell.
 
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Israel's position is to oppose the invasion, surprising as it may sound. Saudi Arabia is, in 2001, the biggest counterweight to Iran in the Persian Gulf, not to mention that Saudi Arabia imploding would leave Saddam and Syria with far more leeway.
LOL That would be a fun timeline... Mossad uncovering an plot to overthrow the Saudi Royal House and end up saving the day. The Saudi are in a split as there only effective protector are the Israëli. The public doesn't get that something is going on but behind the curtains everybody is spooked. I mean this isn't how the things are supposed to be... (I can't write shi..., so if somebody wants to run with this, please do).
 
They'd have to give Mecca (and probably the whole of Hejaz region) a wide berth or watch the world catch fire.

Oilfields are mostly on the other side of the country, so it would not be a big deal, unless rebels took Jeddah and transformed it into a Salé of the Red Sea.
 
LOL That would be a fun timeline... Mossad uncovering an plot to overthrow the Saudi Royal House and end up saving the day. The Saudi are in a split as there only effective protector are the Israëli. The public doesn't get that something is going on but behind the curtains everybody is spooked. I mean this isn't how the things are supposed to be... (I can't write shi..., so if somebody wants to run with this, please do).

Down. Sold. Yesterday. This is amazing.
 
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