And a month later, Part 2...
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Intermission: The Centre Cannot Hold, Part 2
Europe
For Europe, the Seventies would be a time of great struggle and change; in Portugal the fragile Estado Novo State was on the verge of collapse, and whilst with a clear sign of Portuguese Victory in Angola and Guinea emerged, the conflict in Mozambique raged on with no end in sight, eroding the state’s support every passing day. With little options and the threat of both social and economic collapse hanging over his head, Marcelo Caetano [1] would make a deal with South Africa to have them phase the Portuguese Army out and the South African in; whilst this would be celebrated as a type of victory, many would see the move as a deliberate abandonment of Portuguese settlers still living in South Mozambique, who were now all but South African Subjects [2]. Whilst in Angola and Guinea the Portuguese would be more successful, it was clear that holding onto the colonies in the long term would be near impossible- instead, the state would approve negotiations regarding the Sovereignty of the Colonies, resulting in many servicemen and civilians’ believing the war was ultimately meaningless. This factor, when combined with the Economic depression that came as a result of the OPEC Crisis and sanctions impose on Portugal as a result of her recognition of the South African annexation of South West Africa, would result in the Velvet Revolution in 1974. Protesters, both Civilian and Military, launched a series of strikes across the country, paralyzing the state, followed then by a march through Lisbon calling for Caetano to call elections. Much of this would occur in the aftermath of the failed Military Coup [3], resulting in Caetano, fearing a bloody Revolution where he had little support from the Military to fight for him, caving into demands and allowing for Portugal’s first free elections since 1925. The Election, both Presidential and Parliamentary, would see the
Coalition of Free Portuguese leader and Socialist, Mário Soares [4], become Prime Minister. Under Soares, independence would be granted to East Timor [5], which subsequently joined SEADO out of fear of Indonesia, whilst Macao was granted home rule within the Empire, Angola and Guinea granted referendums over their independence [6]- the statues of Mozambique was kept deliberately ambitious by the new Government, who, whilst having won the majority of parliamentary seats, were heavily opposed on the matter by the remnants of Estado Novo, who remained in the Parliament. Additionally, foreign relations, particularly those with America and South Africa, would be strained by the emergence of the new Government, whilst those with the Eastern Bloc saw a considerable thawing.
However Spain’s transition would not be so peaceful. Despite the growth seen during the Sixties, many within the nation had grown tired of the repressive state of Franco regime, and feared that his preferred successor Prince Carlos Alfonso [7] would continue Franco’s ultra-conservatism. Following the death of Franco in 1975 and the ascension of Alfonso to King of Spain, many would put pressure onto him to make reforms and pressed for Liberalization- and such many who sought this would take to the street in an unprecedented wave of mass protest to show their support for reform and called for the end of the Falangist regime, hoping to emulate what had happened in Portugal the year earlier. The Madrid protests would be particularly eventful. When protesters began to march down to the Royal Palace of El Pardo, King Alfonso ordered the Security Forces to disperse the crowd back to Madrid; The Security Forces would interpret this order to fire upon the crowd, shooting several volleys into the arm linked marchers, killing Thirty-One and injuring over Three-Hundred- a notable death would be that of the Spanish underground Film Maker and homosexual Pedro Almadovar [8], who was filming the crowd as they marched; when the first volley was fired into the crowd, a photographer captured the now famous image of Almadovar being struck in the back, arms thrown up in shock. The image would be widely circulated and used by Anti-Government rebels as propaganda, as well in newspapers that condemned the actions of the State. Following the Madrid Shootings there would be a wave of reactionary riots across Spain, accumulating with rebels in Basque, Catalonia, Galicia, the Balearic’s and Cantabria declaring Unilateral Independence from the Kingdom, seizing military positions and public venues. Alfonso would dissolve the Crown and State in an attempt to pacify the rebels, leaving a Caretaker Government led by acting President and Prime Minister Torcuato Fernández-Miranda. This would do little to quench the flames, and in February of 1976, Spain has spiraled into a second Civil War [9].
In France, the situation was considerably better. With the death of De Gaulle in 1968, his top aide and Prime Minister, Georges Pompidou, succeeded him as President [10]. Pompidou sought to modernize Paris through the restructuring of the cities markets, the building of expressways, and promoting the construction of modern art museums- additionally, he would seek to make the French Civilian Nuclear Program a reality, and promoted the French Aerospace industry. He would also show a pragmatic support for his new Prime Minister, Jacques Chaban-Delmas, ‘New Society’ initiative, and decentralized his focus, opening himself to rural France. Despite his image of a modern leader Criticism would be leveled at Pompidou due to his foreign policy, such as the continuation of the Military Government of French Somaliland, and the supplying of anti-Communist rebels in Somaliland, although would be praised for his efforts to rebuild relations with the former French Colonies in the Gold Coast, and sought to build a pan-French Economic Union, with the power decentralized to each member state. He would also see praise for the rebuilding of relations with America, becoming a close ally to Kennedy and Nixon within NATO, even attending the latter’s funeral, although struggled with Rockefeller due to both men being unable to communicate before the 1974 French Election [11]. Pompidou would be succeeded by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing [12], who would largely continue Pompidou’s modernization initiative, at least for the meantime.
The Lowlands would also see a sense of stability, although for one this would not be the case. In Belgium, following the ‘Linguistic War’, the state underwent a series of reforms that would last into the 80’s to reform the state under a Federal System, elevating to bring the major linguistic groups of Belgium, Dutch and Flemish, into an area of equal importance within the state. North, in the Netherlands, little much of note would happen, although along with Belgium and Luxembourg, the Benelux nations would experience a recession following the Oil Crisis and devaluation of their currencies- the idea of a common currency within Benelux became a key conversation, with the idea of such spreading into France, Germany and Italy, although would remain a fringe concept in the latter three nations [13]. Luxembourg would perhaps experience the most dramatic events of the period; on August 1st, 1974, Grand Duke Jean would be killed in a shooting by the Red Army Faction [14], who had intended to kill Chancellor Brandt of Germany, who was on a state visit to Luxembourg at the tie. Dying a few short days later, Jean would be succeeded by his Eighteen Year old son, Henri. During the national state of mourning, Prime Minister Werner would close the Luxembourg-German Border to prevent any further intrusions by the RAF, and ordered an investigation into all German Nationals and pro-German groups to root out further RAF members; this inevitably resulted in a diplomatic crisis as many Luxembourgian-Germans saw themselves as being persecuted by the authorities. Grand Duke Henri would take the office of Grand Duke a few weeks following the end of the mourning period, and order Werner to reopen the border. As both nations were members of the ECC, the event would be important to the development of the organisation, with a sense of Anxiety during thoughts of the organizations future- at the end of the crisis, the ECC would emerge considerably stronger than before.
In Germany itself, the RAF would continue to plague the state, bombing various government offices in a style not dissimilar from the FQA in Canada and the IRA factions in Northern Ireland, and robbing banks to raise funds for their organisation. The Faction, born out of the 1968 Student Movement [15], opposed the Willy Brandt Government, seeing it as Capitalistic and Authoritarian, and sought to bring Socialism to Germany and unite West with East. The group’s most infamous acts would be the aforementioned shooting of Grand Duke Jean in Luxembourg, and a follow up car bombing outside of Villa Hammerschmidt [16], killing Brandt’s trusted aide, Günter Guillaume. The subsequent investigations into the bombing would be revealed that Guillaume was in fact a Stasi agent, and that the Bundestag had been penetrated by the Stasi, who sought to keep Brandt in office due to his normalization of relations and trade with East Germany, and for the signing of the Basic Treaty in 1972, in which both East and West Germany recognized one another as sovereign states. The events that followed the bombings, known as ‘Red Thursday’, would result in Brandt’s resignation [17] and the ascension of his Finance Minister and the architect of the Economic Miracle, Helmut Schmidt [18], to the office of Chancellor. Under Schmidt, West Germany saw a continued economic growth and liberalization, although not to the extent as seen under Brandt. Additionally, under both men an attempt was made to reproach the East, such as the agreement with Poland on the Eastern border, trade deals with Hungary and Bulgaria, and the normalization of relations with East Germany, hoping to rebuild trust following Red Thursday, atop the Basic Treaty [19]. Despite his goodwill, the Right Wing of German Politics strengthening itself by using the rash of anti-Left sentiment that came in the wake of Red Thursday [20].
In Italy, the decade would see the ‘Years of Lead’, in which both Far Left and Far Right groups committed tit-for-tat and anti-Government terrorist acts against one another, killing thousands in the crossfire. Despite extensive violence during the period, under the continued rule of the Christian Democratic Party, Italy saw a great deal of economic growth and social progress, with regional devolution allowing for greater control by local authorities, and streaks of Liberalization within national policies. Benefits for workers, such as redundancy planning and welfare, led to many seeing Italy as a ‘Workers Paradise’; by 1975, Italy was considered one of the most developed states in Europe, a leader in the ECC, albeit this was tempered by extreme violence of the Years of Lead. Regional Devolution would however backfire on the Christian Democrats, with a flurry of success in local election in the North of Italy seeing the rise of the Italian Communist Party to national prominence. Whilst the Christian Democrats were able to keep a level of control, a series of Pacts between the Communist and Socialist Party began to spell the twilight of Christian Democrat rule in Italy [21]. North, in Switzerland, universal suffrage was passed as Federal Law, although Canton’s would be slow to adopt it. Additionally, the construction of a secret Nuclear Program began to cause political irk, with many officials fearing Switzerland’s place if a nuclear war broke out, as well as the draining cost of the program. The program would end in 1974, with the resources diverted to Nuclear Energy. During the period, there would be seen a popular movement to annex Lichtenstein, although gained little serious traction outside of fringe groups.
In Yugoslavia, the unity of the state would be tested when Josip Tito, who since 1963 had been President for life, was faced with increased ethnic tensions among the various ethnic minorities of the nation; a notable incident during this period would be the Croatian Revolt in 1971, in which Croatian Protesters marched in the street to demand greater autonomy, and were faced with Military resistance, as well as the purge of Croats from the Yugoslavian Government. The Revolt would be the result of Croat Communist Leaders joining with Croat nationalists to seek greater power for the Croatian Federal Republic, such as control over their own economy and political autonomy. Whilst the revolt was considered a major failure, with leaders and protesters imprisoned, it was nothing less than a jolt up the spine for Tito, who was forced to recognize the dissatisfaction among the Yugoslavian ethnic groups, dissatisfaction reinforced by Anti-Croat riots in Macedonia a few weeks later, and began to look into divulging a greater deal of autonomy to each Federal Republics. The accumulation of this introspection would be the 1974 Constitutions, which granted each Republic control of their own economic plans, as well as elevating areas such as Kosovo and Vojvodina to Autonomous Statues in the SR Serbia, and devolved Tito’s own personal power. Whilst the Constitution was satisfying to most Yugoslavians due to the degrees of devolution, the Constitution would face scrutiny in Serbia, who grew quickly distrustful of further reforms; the recognition of Macedonians and Montenegrin's as independent groups from the Serbs would frustrate and infuriate Serbian Legislators, who saw them as indistinguishable from Serbs. Atop this, despite what many called the ‘Yugoslav miracle’, reorganization of the economy in 1970 would result in a depression as state owned organisations asserted a monopoly. The 1973 oil crisis did nothing but magnify the depression, with the economy’s rate of Growth quickly lagging behind foreign borrowing, entering Yugoslavia into a period of heavy debts [22].
And finally the Scandinavia’s- during the period, Finland would play an important role within East-West relations. As a grey zone between the First and Second World, having political leanings to the Soviet Union, however maintaining a Capitalistic system, something unusual for most nations bordering the Soviet Union, the Scandinavian State was viewed an ideal meeting place for diplomatic missions, the most famous of these missions being the signing of the
Helsinki Arms Limitation Treaty, or HALT [23], which took its name from the Finnish Capital. In Denmark and Sweden, the period would be almost uneventful, with Denmark failing to gain membership in the ECC, and Sweden undergoing a new Constitution in 1975 that divorced the Monarchy from all Political Power, the accumulation of an evolution that had been going since the early years of the 20th Century. Norway would enjoy prosperity during the period, entering what became known as the ‘oil age’. In this, Norway began to tap into the oil reservoirs in the North Sea, and, most notably, in 1974, alongside Denmark, voted in favor of joining the ECC, opening up her economy to the rest of Europe [24]. Iceland would see international strife, with the Island Nation and Great Britain fight the Second Cod War during 1971. The ‘War’ was primarily a dispute between the two nations over fishing rights in the North Sea, Iceland seeking to extend her territorial waters some 50 miles, which would grant her access to lucrative fishing waters. British Trawlers, ignoring Icelandic claims, continued to fish, resulting in the Icelandic Cost Guard cutting their nets. In response, the Royal Navy would begin to escort British fishing vessels, resulting in several standoffs. The Conflict would end in a truce, followed by rigorous negotiations to establish a definitive border. When neither side could reach an agreement that both could agree upon, it was decided by a third party, Norway, that both nations would share the waters until the details could be worked; this fragile peace would only hold for as long as Britain and Iceland wanted it to [25].
Americas
In Central America, regional homogeny would be found through the expansion of the prosperous Organization of Central American States (
Organización de Estados Centroamericanos, or known better by its Acronym, ODECA), although tensions regarding economic immigration from El Salvador into Honduras put a strain on the effectiveness the organisation, as did Guatemalan hostility to Belize [26], which in turn caused Britain, and to an extent the Commonwealth, to become hostile towards ODECA, with threats of a Commonwealth-wide response in the event of an outbreak off conflict, although this threat was diminished following Britain’s failure to support her own threats during the Oil Crisis [27]. In Panama, the Arnulfo Arias Government faced internal stress to return the Panama Canal- talks between Arias and Kennedy froze during the 1972 Election, talks between Arias and Nixon failed following the latter’s death, and Arias found himself unable to approach Rockefeller, forced to communicate through his advisers, who kept the President out the loop on matters such as the Canal [28]. Despite these problems, Arias would remain optimistic of future talks for the Canal’s return with Reagan, however, despite this optimism, the failure to secure the Canal for Panama would be the undoing of Arias Government; in September of 1975, Commander Omar Torrijos of the National Guard launched a coup, overthrowing Arias and installing himself as the new President of Panama [29].
In Colombia, the National Front Regime began to faultier when allegations of electoral fraud were levied against National Front Candidate Misael Pastrana Borrero during the elections, resulting in severe civil disruption across Colombia, which was responded to with violence. As a result of this, Rebel groups in south Columbia would see a boost in popularity and membership, be they the Marxist FARC and EPL, or new groups formed by protesters, such as M-73 [30]. Across the border in Venezuela, the people would see prosperity. Led by Reformer Carlos Andrés Pérez, who nationalized the native Oil Industry, the state saw an economic boom as the demand for Oil went up during the Embargo, the money made from the sales used to finance social projects that aimed to modernize the nation. Resistance would however be found within Native Groups, who were marginalized, modernization projects often done at their expense [31]. Ecuador would also see economic prosperity with the Oil Crisis thanks to the construction the Andean Pipeline [32]- however this would do little to help its situation with Peru, who saw the pipeline as antagonistic. In Peru, her Military Government proved unstable, unable to properly consolidate itself, the regimes failing to keep stability and often collapsing into Military Coups themselves, diminishing Peru’s threat to Ecuador considerably [33]. In Bolivia, the CIA backed Hugo Banzer overthrew the Leftist leaning Government, leading to an authoritarian regime known for its blatant disregard for human rights, influenced heavily by the Paraguayan Stroessner Regime and the Uruguayan Junta [34].
On the Southern Cone, the CIA would continue to back Military Coups against Leftist Governments; in Chile, a Military Coup led by Augusto Pinochet would overthrow the left leaning and unpopular Allende Government, installing a Military Counsel led by Pinochet, who sought to repair Chile by introducing measures such as economic reforms, currency stabilization, and sweeping Privatization, as well as purging opposition, and anyone who was perceived a threat to the regime [35]. In neighboring Argentina, following a series of complicated Coups and Counter Coups, beginning with the downfall of the previous Junta, the installation of former exiled President Perón, only for his assassination at the hands of Nationalists [36], and the political coup by his wife to take control of Argentina [37], the nation would fall under the control of the Military National Reorganization Counsel (MNRC) [38]. The MNRC Junta would be supported by America, and led a regime influenced by both Pinochet and Banzer, which privatized Argentina resources and purged all leftists. Despite their similarities and goals, the Chilean and Argentine Regimes would come to blows, primarily over the long disputed Beagle Islands-the small cluster of islands just off the coast of Tierra del Fuego, claimed by both Chile and Argentina, and allowed for control over the Beagle Channel, one of the major points in south America for crossing from the Atlantic and into the Pacific, would cause both nations to antagonize and threaten each other. An attempt by Venezuela to resolve the Beagle Issue, acting as a third party, would do little to help, with both nations dissatisfied and rejecting Venezuela’s proposal outright, believing each other to have bribed Venezuelan officials. Chile would find support on the international stage however, with Enoch Powell’s Britain supporting the Chilean Claim [39]; however this was largely reactionary to Argentina’s own claim on the British Oversea Territories of the Falkland and South Georgia Islands [40].
Oceania
With the ascension of John Gorton into the Australian Premiership [41], the Liberal Party was largely faced with the challenge of its continued survival in Australian Politics. With a minority Government that had only won the election by the skin of its teeth, Gorton would be forced to hold a second election in the hopes of achieving a majority, even a slim one; he would get this majority, winning it by a single seat [42]. Under Gorton, Australia pursued a largely independent defense and foreign policy, hoping to distance Australia from her Colonial ties with the United Kingdom, a desire only exemplified following the near War during the Oil Crisis [43]. Gorton would continue to pull troops out of Indochina, causing a headache for his allies, although left elements behind for support rolls, however even these would leave the country within a matter of years. He would also push for Australia to join SEADO as an associate [44], although it would be some time before this would happen. Domestically, Gorton alienated himself from Liberal Leaders by supporting policies at the expense of the states [45], leading to a little support in his policies; an infamous one would be the commission of the Australian Film Board, with the goal of promoting Australian Culture. The AFB would receive the bare minimum of funding due to the little support it found in Parliament, creating the image of a dysfunctional Government willing to spend tax payers money on programs it itself did not support. The final nail in Gorton’s Coffin would ultimately be his public image; his poor abilities as a speaker led to many seeing him as incompetent, and his vestige of a ‘man of the people’ led to accusation from opponents and detractors of infidelity and alcoholism, accusations that while unfounded, Gorton struggled to shake. In the end Gorton would lose the 1974 election to Labour leader Gough Whitlam [46] by a wide margin, and would be flushed from leadership, thus ending the Quarter of a Century of Coalition Rule in Australia.
In New Zealand, Britain’s entry into the ECC resulted in the loss of her biggest trade partner, and resulted in Rampant and out control inflation that only got worse with the Oil Crisis, entering New Zealand onto the brink a full economic collapse. Whilst led by Norman Kirk, who promised to pull New Zealand out and into recovery, his death in 1974 would do little to help matters, instead resulting in a severely harmed national morale. With this, New Zealanders would elect Robert Muldoon to the Premiership, under the desperate hope that he could save their nation [47].
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1-See
‘Things Fall Apart’ and
’The Center Cannot Hold, Part 1’; in exchange for support, Estado Novo branched out to South Africa, offering recognition to the illegal annexation of South West Africa in exchange for support in (and the takeover of) Mozambique. Additionally, thanks to President Johnson’s decision to back Estado Novo, the state has been provided with a comfortable support that prevents the sudden collapse we saw in our World.
2-See
The Center Cannot Hold, Part 1.
3-This Military Coup here refers to our Worlds Military Coup against the Estado Novo regime, which led the installment of the Socialist Military Junta; such a scenario was inevitable, however with Portugal having been able to leave the Colonies with heads held high, this coup sees little immediate support.
4-Who emerged as the face of the Civilian Government during the Junta years; here he can pursue a more democratic route to power.
5-Which in our World gained de facto independence from Portugal due to the chaos of the transition into the Junta.
6-Guinea and Angola are granted referendums over their statues, unlike in our World, in which they were granted de jure independence by the Junta.
7-As in our World.
8-Referring of course to the famous Spanish filmmaker, notable for his movies
Tell me about my Mother and
Under the Skin, to name a few. During the 70’s, Almadovar was notable in the underground culture movements and one of the initial faces of the ‘New Democracy’, and was present at the Rally for Democracy in 1974, filming it for his Documentary Film,
The Change.
9-Spain’s transition out of Fascism is evidently more violent and dramatic than In our World; without the success of the Portuguese Junta, Alfonso is less open for reform out of fear of being overthrown, and when faced with the possibility of revolution, cracks under the pressure; this of course is in reference to his near abdication following the 1982 Assassination attempt, which was initially believed to be the start of a Military Putsch.
10-As in our World.
11-Follows our World with broad strokes; however due to the Parisian Martial Law, there is more an emphasis for reform, which allows Pompidou to avoid the stagnation of support he saw in our World.
12-Unlike our World, in which Francois Mitterrand narrowly won over the stagnant UDP, here, with the UDP emphasizing reform in the wake of Marital Law, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing is able to narrow out Mitterrand and become President.
13-As in our World; the Benelux states saw a largely uneventful period.
14-Based upon a real life RAF plot which targeted Chancellor Brandt, although in our Wold this plot never went ahead.
15-As briefly touched upon in
‘Things Fall Apart’
16-Based upon the real bombing that nearly killed Guillaume in 1974.
17- Günter Guillaume’s status as a Statsi agent was, in our World, discovered in 1988, causing a major retrospective scandal. Had this been revealed earlier, undoubtable it would have caused severe embarrassment and humiliation for the West German Government, up to and including Brandt’s resignation.
18-Schimidt, during this period, would have been the most likely successor to Brandt, and was the SPD Candidate during the 1976 Federal Election.
19-As in our World.
20-Which under the circumstances such as backlash is not unimaginable.
21-Italy’s history follows our Worlds to a large degree, however, unlike our World, there is no Alliance between the Socialist and Communist parties, which here considerably strengthens the Left Wing.
22-Yugoslavia’s history largely follows our own, however, unlike our World, in which due to the stability in the Soviet Union Yugoslavia began to slip back into its orbit, here, especially with Suslov about to take the helm, this is not the case.
23-See
‘We Came in Peace’.
24-Both Denmark and Norway joined the ECC in our World alongside the Heath led Britain. With Britain already in the ECC, there is less internal pressure for Denmark to join, swinging the already narrow vote to a no, whilst Norway, which still needs to protect her rights in the North Sea, still votes to join.
25-As in our World.
26-As briefly mentioned in
‘Things Fall Apart’
27-See
‘East of Aden’
28-As explained in
‘The Passenger’
29-Much like our World, Aries is overthrown in a Coup due to his failings, however this is much later, thanks to the lack of an Agnew and Alberts Administration.
30-As in our World.
31-Again, as in our World.
32-Whilst in our World, the Pipeline’s construction was severely delayed due to the Cenepa accident, in this World its safe assume that this never happened, and Ecuador is safe to build it.
33-Unlike our World, the American Governments larger involvement in South America has led to a less stable Peru, which relives pressure off Ecuador and her Pipeline.
34-As in our World, the CIA has helped establish Right Wing regimes in South America.
35-As in our World.
36-Perón was the target of assassination attempts upon his return to Argentina as in our World; it’s likely that his return here would still see these attempts, albeit with some success.
37-Who took control after Perón’s passing in 1974 In our World, only to be quickly disposed of by the Army.
38-Where as in our Wold, Argentina fell under the control of the Peoples Reorganization Committee of Argentina (PRCA), a vaguely right wing nationalist group of Military and Civilians; with CIA backing the Military would be able to take complete control of the Government.
39-As in our World, Britain supports Chile, although Powell would be more benevolent to Chile, whereas Heath was cautious to lending this support.
40-This will be important in the future.
41- See
‘Things Fall Apart’ for more information.
46- Unlike William McMahon, who was able to win a comfortable majority in the election immediately after Holt’s death.
42-See
43-Unlike our World, in which McMahon was lucky to not drag Australia into Indochina, and remained icy to SEADO, fearing the stability of the organisation. Here, Gorton misjudges SEADO’s ability.
44-Again, unlike McMahon, who fractured the Coalition by becoming leader, large in part due to his unpopularity among the Country Leadership, who walked out the Coalition following his ascension.
45-As did McMahon in our World.
46-As in our World.
47-New Zealand’s history will primarily follow our Worlds, at least at the moment.
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