The Warring United States Period: A TL where the Anti-Federalists win the ratification debate

I like the premise but it all seems to be moving too fast...Unless it's all a set-up to have the New Yorkers suffer a devastating defeat and get knocked back to the Hudson Valley.

I agree that looking at things on a map, that New York and Virginia make logical protagonists but I just can't see it happening in this time frame. Is it even in New York's interests to be fighting out in the forest beyond the Ohio. I could see this conflict in the 1810s, once the *Erie Canal has been built but not in 1790. I'd have thought that in 1790, an Independent New York would be looking eastward to the sea and maybe better relations with Britain.

If I was Clinton, I'd be more worried about what is Connecticut going to do in all of this? Are they just letting New York take over the Western Reserve? If everything goes to hell, I could see Connecticut and New Hampshire dong "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thing and allying with Virginia to sort some things out in their favour.

Beyond the question of why is New York doing this, is the more pointed "How is New York doing this?" How are they projecting all of this force into the Ohio Valley without the *Erie canal? How are they supplying them?. It's only 1790 or so. They've barely settled upstate New York as far as Syracuse. How do they get troops to the Ohio Territory? How do they get enough troops in place to have a chance against the Virginians from just across the river? I don't see the Pennsylvanians just looking the other way while New Yorkers march through.

What are all of the locals doing while this is going on? In OTL, they were handling anything the US could send at them at this point. This is a few years before Fallen Timbers. I don't really see them just standing aside and watching. The locals are still not impressed with the Treaty of Fort Stanwix and I'd see them looking to re-stake their claim to the areas lost there.

Finally, how bloody-minded are the British going to be? This is before the OTL *Jay Treaty and even more to the point if there is no more United States, then the Treaty of Paris becomes a dead letter. Maine, Michigan and all of the Illinois country just went back on the table as far as they would be concerned.

Just a few thoughts,

David
 
I like the premise but it all seems to be moving too fast...Unless it's all a set-up to have the New Yorkers suffer a devastating defeat and get knocked back to the Hudson Valley.

I agree that looking at things on a map, that New York and Virginia make logical protagonists but I just can't see it happening in this time frame. Is it even in New York's interests to be fighting out in the forest beyond the Ohio. I could see this conflict in the 1810s, once the *Erie Canal has been built but not in 1790. I'd have thought that in 1790, an Independent New York would be looking eastward to the sea and maybe better relations with Britain.

If I was Clinton, I'd be more worried about what is Connecticut going to do in all of this? Are they just letting New York take over the Western Reserve? If everything goes to hell, I could see Connecticut and New Hampshire dong "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thing and allying with Virginia to sort some things out in their favour.

Beyond the question of why is New York doing this, is the more pointed "How is New York doing this?" How are they projecting all of this force into the Ohio Valley without the *Erie canal? How are they supplying them?. It's only 1790 or so. They've barely settled upstate New York as far as Syracuse. How do they get troops to the Ohio Territory? How do they get enough troops in place to have a chance against the Virginians from just across the river? I don't see the Pennsylvanians just looking the other way while New Yorkers march through.

What are all of the locals doing while this is going on? In OTL, they were handling anything the US could send at them at this point. This is a few years before Fallen Timbers. I don't really see them just standing aside and watching. The locals are still not impressed with the Treaty of Fort Stanwix and I'd see them looking to re-stake their claim to the areas lost there.

Finally, how bloody-minded are the British going to be? This is before the OTL *Jay Treaty and even more to the point if there is no more United States, then the Treaty of Paris becomes a dead letter. Maine, Michigan and all of the Illinois country just went back on the table as far as they would be concerned.

Just a few thoughts,

David

Well I think every state is going to be aggressive in their efforts to secure land in the West, because it is kind of the future of America. Obviously influence on the Eastern seashore is important, but by my (potentially flawed) logic Clinton would rather clam a bunch of land in the West than going through the the trouble of invading a state. As to your points about supplies and Native Americans, that (at the risk of spoiling stuff) will be a problem for both Virginia and New York.

Also to your point about New York marching through Pennsylvania, they would not have to as Erie was part of New York until it sold it. It wouldn't in this time line because it needs the Erie area for access to Ohio.
 
Finally, how bloody-minded are the British going to be? This is before the OTL *Jay Treaty and even more to the point if there is no more United States, then the Treaty of Paris becomes a dead letter. Maine, Michigan and all of the Illinois country just went back on the table as far as they would be concerned.
Except there might not be any political will to reinvade the territories.
 
If the british attack, they risk uniting the US again, but if the states start fighting each other they may try to have better relations with Britain and Canada.
 
If there isn't a Jay Treaty yet the British are already occupying huge chunks of the old Northwest, that was kind of what spurred the whole thing.
 
I can certainly see some of the states coming under the British sphere of influence - perhaps with closer ties. Especially if other states look threatening.
 
Part 5a: The Spanish Conspiracy and Southern Alliance

The Republic of Kentucky:

There had long been various plots within the state of Kentucky to split off from Virginia and the United States. Primary among those plots was an effort led by James Wilkinson to split from Virginia and have the new Kentucky Republic become a vassal of Spain. In November 1788, a convention in Kentucky had narrowly voted not to seek independence but the climate in Kentucky changed in 1790.

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Caption: The counties of Kentucky from 1780 when it was a part of Virginia.

The outbreak of the Ohio War led to further concerns about Virginian rule in Kentucky. Potentially unfounded rumors were spread by Wilkinson and his pro-independence faction about how Virginia was going to use the Ohio War to assert tyranny over Kentucky. Every claim about the Virginia government from higher taxes to a draft of every Kentucky male were spread but the most effective claim made by independence partisans was regarding protection from natives. It was claimed that due to Virginia troops being deployed in Ohio, no one would defend Kentucky from natives. This line worked the best as it confirmed fears held by many Kentuckians and public opinion shifted towards support for independence.

While Spanish officials had lost confidence in Wilkinson’s plot in 1788, he was successfully able to regain trust with the Spanish government. Spain saw the weak state of the “United States” and saw the obvious opportunity to expand Spanish influence westward. Louisiana Governor General Esteban Miró began funding revolutionaries in Kentucky as well as giving Wilkinson a large pension to allow for him to continue his plotting. Wilkinson had long had ambitions to become the “Washington of the West” and
meeting that ambition was now within his grasp.

James_Wilkinson.jpg

Caption: Portrait of James Wilkinson, Founding Father and 1st President of the Republic of Kentucky

Events in Kentucky came to a head beginning in March when a convention was held in Lexington to discuss the matter of independence. While Virginia troops battled for Columbus in Ohio, the elite of Kentucky voted to split from Virginia and the United States as a whole. A new constitution was drafted, ironically based on a loose confederation system like the Articles of Confederation Kentucky just left (although with a hearty dose of Spanish influence unlike the Articles).

As the leader of the independence faction, James Wilkinson was elected as the first president of the Republic and Spain quickly moved to assert influence in the republic. Spain had established its first client state in the American West but it would not stop with Kentucky.

Tennessee:

Spain also moved to establish influence in the region of Tennessee, which was the second part of the Spanish conspiracy. James Roberston from Tennessee also moved into the arms of Miró although he wanted more direct influence from Spain rather than the client state system in Kentucky. Perhaps if the Constitution had been ratified and Tennessee was separated from North Carolina the Spanish conspiracy could have been avoided. The Kentucky Declaration of Independence was the coup de grace for North Carolinian rule in Tennessee.

On July 4th, western Tennessee settlement leaders voted to leave North Carolina and the Union. Some joined the independent Republic of Tennessee that was a Spanish client state in the Kentucky mold while others near the border swore loyalty to Spain directly. Again the Spanish quickly moved troops from New Spain into the region to assert influence.

Furthermore, the State of Franklin had long been a thorn in the side of North Carolina and this issue was reignited by Kentucky and events in Western Tennessee. While Franklin had long been reduced to one county south of the French Broad River, dreams of independent Franklin were revived by circumstances and large amounts of Spanish intervention. The State of Franklin declared independence on July 21st. Tennessee now had four factions within its borders although 3 of those were directly Spanish held or under Spanish influence.

oMu1qY6.png


Caption: Map of Tennessee going into August of 1790. Dark yellow is direct Spanish control, the other shade of yellow is the Republic of Tennessee. Red is lands under control of Franklin while pink represents the claims made by Franklin. It should be noted that the Republic of Tennessee claims all of Tennessee with the exception of Spanish-controlled land.

-------

[Author’s Note]: This part started to run kind of long so the reaction of the Southern states to the events of this part will be in 5b.
 
Another excellent update, eager to see what happens in the next. The influence of the surrounding empires seems certain to add an interesting dynamic to the interactions among the states.
 
One problem--no one but Native Americans (mostly Chickasaw), some Spanish, and a couple of traders lived in West Tennessee along the river. It was legally Chickasaw land until 1818 as it had been recognised as such in a treaty between the United States and the Chickasaw. Having it be directly under Spanish control kinda hurts the purpose of access to New Orleans. The rest of West Tennessee was basically vacant of anyone but American Indians.

Middle Tennessee shouldn't be empty, since 1790 census has several thousand non-native people living there. James Robertson would probably head the Republic of Tennessee government (he founded Nashville, after all, where it would almost certainly be based in), whereas John Sevier would continue as governor (president?) of Franklin. Both states would be friendly to each other--they have similar goals (farming, access to Mississippi River--guaranteed by the 1796 state constitution as a legal right along the lines of freedom of the press--stop Indian attacks, etc.) and the leaders are political allies who go back a good ways. Meanwhile, Andrew Jackson is an ambitious young lawyer who's probably devising plans to legally purchase those Chickasaw lands. He may or may not still wind up a rival of John Sevier as in OTL. Funny idea--Jackson purchases the lands in the mid-1790s, shaves them off the Republic of Tennessee, and with Spain's help sets himself up as president of some new republic based there (and include the little corner of Kentucky near Paducah which would be included in the purchase).

And although Franklin did not in OTL, I think the logical division is to expand Franklin's borders to the Cumberland Plateau. In 1790 that was very sparsely populated and basically a place to pass through to go to Middle Tennessee, but there's useful resources like saltpeter in those hills which would logically make Franklin negotiate something out of it which would more or less resemble the legal definition of East Tennessee in the Tennessee State Constitution.

Oh, and tons of warfare with the local peoples. Spain may or may not choose to keep arming the Cherokees and others--I'd imagine all of these states will lodge complaints about that which may be taken into more consideration than OTL.
 
During the summer, New York can supply its armies by lake, from Buffalo to Cleveland. However, moving men is easier by land, and during the winter, how on earth are they going to communicate back to Albany? There's no land connexion.

Both armies thought the other were performing The two armies met confusingly in the middle
Not sure what you're trying to say here.
we were on of the last regiments to retreat.
one
I don't know why you guys assume Monsieur Napoleon won't get French Louisiana back. The question is who will he sell it to if there is no America?
Sell it to? No one. If Napoleon still ends up in charge, he's likely to want to keep it - but the Brits WILL take it if it's owned by France.

Spain saw the weak state of the “United States” and saw the obvious opportunity to expand Spanish influence westward.
Yes....
Wilkerson was a traitor, of course, and might well give Spanish influence in *Kentucky, but I doubt that the new state/nation is interested in becoming a puppet. Better to be under the yoke of an elitist Virginia that's at least Protestant and where many of them came from, than under the yoke of an elitist Spain that's non-democratic, Papist, etc., etc.
 

Deleted member 67076

This is a fun timeline. Its always interesting to see an Argentina or Mexico style path of development happening elsewhere.
 
I like your pictures. The battle map from February looks funny with the modern roads, but even so it's well done. How did you do the fake Wikipedia article? Also, I find it funny someone chose Alexander Hamilton as a screen name and then chose to make an AH like this.
 
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