The War of the Sick Men (Austria-Hungary Ottomans, and Bulgarians, Vs Russians, and Serbs)

Who would win in this war of the Sick men?

  • Ottomans, Austro-Hungarians, and Bulgarians

  • Russian Empire, and Serbia

  • Ottomans, Austro-Hungarians, Bulgarians, Swedish, and Turkic Rebels in Central Asia

  • Serbians, Romanians, and Russian empire


Results are only viewable after voting.
So as we know the Seminal tragedy leading up to World war I was a domino effect that would change the world. But what isn't so discussed, is how could we have an isolated conflict between only a few major powers of Europe, that goes not go global.

POD

So Franz Ferdinand is assassinated, and Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Then Russia declares war on Austria-Hungary. Instead, however, German foreign minister Bethmann-Hollweg interrupts Kaiser Wilhelm II on his cruise, and after many nights of debating, and discussing, Bethmann-Hollweg finally convinces Kaiser Willhelm II to not go to war against Russia, and seeing the future it would plunge Germany into. Now Germany is out of the war, so now it's Austria-Hungary vs Serbia and Russia.

Later in the War, Austria-Hungary divides its army, one to deal with Russia, and the other to deal with Serbia. Serbian resistance is difficult for Austria-Hungary to deal with. The Russians, not contempt with Germany put all forces to defeat Austria-Hungary. The Russian bear sweeps through the Austro-Hungarians. Seeing the difficulty the Habsburgs see, Austria-Hungary looks for allies. Austria-Hungary looks towards Enver Pasha and the Ottoman empire for help. The Ottomans promised there Prestige restored, and their title of the Third Rome uncontested. The Ottomans join the Austro-Hungarians in the war. The Russian Caucasus are met with the full force of the Ottoman Army. The Russians, already having moved soldiers to fight the Austro-Hungarians are Quickly pushed out of the majority of the Caucasus.

Austria-Hungary still having a difficult time with Serbia, finds a friend in Bulgaria. Bulgaria losing the Second Balkan war is promised Bulgarian majorities in Serbia. Bulgaria declares war on Serbia.

The Ottomans needing to contribute more, and to get the Russians distracted brings Ottoman troops to help stage a Turkic revolution in Russian Turkestan.

Austria-Hungary battered by Russian troops advancing wants to start a new front. Sweden who lost Prestige in its empire 200 years ago, wants to regain glory and become a European power again. So promised the reconquest of Finland, and other Russian lands, Sweden declares war on Russia.

Russia, seeing it getting outnumbered asks Romania for help in exchange for Transylvania. Romania declines knowing it will get steamrolled in a war against Austria, and Bulgaria.

Russia in anger decides to seek for anyone that could open up a second front against Austria-Hungary.......They found an ally in ITALY. Italy goes to war against Austria-Hungary with an advance into the Alps.

The Ottomans facing some defeats against the Russians in the Caucasus need help, so they look towards Persia, who in 1826 lost the Russo-Persian war, and lost all influence it could have sought in the Caucasus. So the Ottomans promise the borders before 1812 to be restored to the Persian empire if they join the war against the Russians. The Persian sick man is joining the war. And the war of the Sick men begins.

Add to what would happen, who else would join? What would happen internally? What happens outside of the war in Europe, and the world.

Double points if you find a way to get Powers like China, Japan, South American powers, Portugal, Spain, and Ethiopia involved.
 
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Ryan

Donor
given how successful Russia was against Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans in otl, it would be an utter humiliation for them. the only upside is that such a quick war wouldn't end up with them being dismembered, although they would still lose Galicia, Bosnia, Armenian Anatolia and the straits/Thrace.
 
given how successful Russia was against Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans in otl, it would be an utter humiliation for them. the only upside is that such a quick war wouldn't end up with them being dismembered, although they would still lose Galicia, Bosnia, Armenian Anatolia and the straits/Thrace.

Well, You have to remember the Austrians also had to fight Serbia, and Serbian resistance and the Ottomans had to fight off the British advances all over their empire. If the Ottomans just have to fight Russia, they can smash all their troops at the caucuses. With Austro-Hungarian help, and Bulgarian intervention in Serbia, an Ottoman-Austrian advance into Russia, it makes it hard to know who could win.

Do you think the Republic of China, Persia, or Japan could get involved in the war?
 

Ryan

Donor
Well, You have to remember the Austrians also had to fight Serbia, and Serbian resistance and the Ottomans had to fight off the British advances all over their empire.

But they're at war with Serbia so why wouldn't they be fighting? given that the whole war started over Serbia in the first place, it makes no sense for them to not invade unless they had a crystal ball and could see that they couldn't even beat an already exhausted minor country.

If the Ottomans just have to fight Russia, they can smash all their troops at the caucuses.

they might be able to bring more forces to bear against Russia, but Russia can do the same as it's not fighting Germany. In fact, i wouldn't be surprised if Russian Caucasian forces outnumbered Everything the ottomans could throw at them.

With Austro-Hungarian help(1), and Bulgarian intervention in Serbia(2), an Ottoman-Austrian advance into Russia(3), it makes it hard to know who could win(4).

1. sorry but I don't understand, help with what?

2. In otl, it took a year for Serbia to be conquered by AH and Bulgaria and I can't see any reason why it'd be quicker here.

3. IMO it'd be the other way around.

4. I'm afraid I have to disagree with that.

Do you think the Republic of China, Persia, or Japan could get involved in the war?

Persia would probably become involved as it did otl, with its sovereignty being completely ignored by Russia and the Ottomans as they try and flank each other.

China might get involved to take control of the AH concession in Tianjin but that's about it.
 
But they're at war with Serbia so why wouldn't they be fighting? given that the whole war started over Serbia in the first place, it makes no sense for them to not invade unless they had a crystal ball and could see that they couldn't even beat an already exhausted minor country.



they might be able to bring more forces to bear against Russia, but Russia can do the same as it's not fighting Germany. In fact, i wouldn't be surprised if Russian Caucasian forces outnumbered Everything the ottomans could throw at them.



1. sorry but I don't understand, help with what?

2. In otl, it took a year for Serbia to be conquered by AH and Bulgaria and I can't see any reason why it'd be quicker here.

3. IMO it'd be the other way around.

4. I'm afraid I have to disagree with that.



Persia would probably become involved as it did otl, with its sovereignty being completely ignored by Russia and the Ottomans as they try and flank each other.

China might get involved to take control of the AH concession in Tianjin but that's about it.


Sorry, I probably wasn't clear. Since Bulgaria is on the side of the Austrians, and Ottomans, I was thinking Austria-Hungary doesn't need to send as many troops into Serbia and let Bulgaria deal with the Serbs. That way Austria can throw everything at the Russians.

The Russians would probably be in trouble as soon as Nicholas II takes charge in the military as he did in our timeline. The Ottomans throwing everything at the Caucasus would be too much for Russia, who also has to defend or lead an advance into Austria-Hungary, especially the Mountains. Russia has a lot of territories to manage, and Since the Ottomans are not being attacked on all sides by the British, I could definitely see the Ottomans possibly sending troops to lead a revolution in Turkic Central Asia. Also, You could get Austria-Hungary in contact with Sweden to invade Russian Finland for Annexation.

Sorry, I wouldn't say it'd be an instant victory against Serbia, I'm just saying since Bulgaria only needs to fight Serbia, Austria-Hungary can lay back a bit, and only send a few troops to that front, while Bulgaria deals with the Serbs as the majority.

Well, I'd say the Russians when Nicholas II takes charge, it's gonna be really difficult for them to defeat both Ottoman and Austrian armies. Maybe even a Swedish, and Turkic incursion.
 
Trouble is the Balkans/Middle East are part of the battlespace in play. Romania is going to join in if promised Transylvania, Albania was seething and would rebel if promised independence, the Arabs are also very close to rebelling, the Kurds and Armenians ditto if Russian troops get near enough.
A-H also has a supreme commander who does not have the best rep for military prowess and whilst Russia's generals are not much better, if Germany is not involved, Russia has the numbers to crush A-H (especially if Romania is an ally and allows Russia forces to attack from Romanian territory ) even if its allies are just defending or providing logistics.
Italy will be looking at its claims on A-H closely and if A-H falters, will look to take advantage. A-H knows this and it will tie up a lot of troops. The British/French will look to gobble up what they can, all of which may draw Germany in and WW1 starts in 1915.
 
given how successful Russia was against Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans in otl, it would be an utter humiliation for them. the only upside is that such a quick war wouldn't end up with them being dismembered, although they would still lose Galicia, Bosnia, Armenian Anatolia and the straits/Thrace.
I'm not so certain they'd get all that, simply because no one else wants them to and while the war might be localized that doesn' mean the peace will be, I could easily is a peace conference orm that limits Russian gain after all Germany will want to limit the blow to the Austrians, British won't want the russians controlling the straits and the French would surely realize that with those kinds of gains the Russians won't need them anymore, so i suspect their support will be limited if it exsists at all.
 
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Trouble is the Balkans/Middle East are part of the battlespace in play. Romania is going to join in if promised Transylvania, Albania was seething and would rebel if promised independence, the Arabs are also very close to rebelling, the Kurds and Armenians ditto if Russian troops get near enough.
A-H also has a supreme commander who does not have the best rep for military prowess and whilst Russia's generals are not much better, if Germany is not involved, Russia has the numbers to crush A-H (especially if Romania is an ally and allows Russia forces to attack from Romanian territory ) even if its allies are just defending or providing logistics.
Italy will be looking at its claims on A-H closely and if A-H falters, will look to take advantage. A-H knows this and it will tie up a lot of troops. The British/French will look to gobble up what they can, all of which may draw Germany in and WW1 starts in 1915.

I didn't think about Romania, thank you. I don't think Albania would be able to get independence. Albania would be better off getting independence peacefully, then declaring independence, then getting invaded by Austria and Bulgaria.

The Arabs probably won't rebel in this timeline. A pan Arab state was purposed by the British, and I don't think the Tsar who is now general of the military would care about what the Arabs did in the desert.

Kurds were pretty loyal to the Ottomans, and I don't see them having much of a secession movement in this timeline.

I'm kind of Torn on Romania, because on one hand, if their promised Transylvania, they might want to join, but in our timeline, Austria-Hungary flattened Romania, and also Bulgaria would be promised some land in Romania as well, so they'd get pummeled.

Russia does have the numbers to Crush Austria-Hungary....but do they have the numbers to crush Sweden, Austria-Hungary, Turkestani rebels, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria? (maybe Persia)

As for Italy, even if they did join the war, they already failed the majority of the battles against Austria-Hungary. Also, if the Italians did do damage to the Austrians, then the Austrians can tell the Ottomans to invade Italian Libya and free the population as a distraction.
 
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