The War of the French Succession

WI Louis XV of France died as a child and a succession war started between Philip V of Spain and the regent Philippe II, Duke of Orleans? The Spanish king was his uncle and had given up his rights to the French crown at the Treaty of Utrecht, but he could still denounce the renounciation. Let's say that this happens after the death of Louis XIV but before the Triple Alliance of Britain, France and the Netherlands (established in 1717 to oppose Spanish designs on Italy and the French throne, later joined by Austria to become the Quadruple Alliance). I assume that the British, Austrians and Dutch would back the Duke of Orleans. Is it possible that this would inject new vigor into the 1st Jacobite Rising?

Edit: Better yet, have it happen before Austria jumps to the aid of Venice in its war with Turkey, so this would have consequences in the east as well. Who knows, maybe the Ottomans will end up conquering Dalmatia and the Ionian Islands. That would place Louis' death sometime in September 1715-April 1716.
 
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WI Louis XV of France died as a child and a succession war started between Philip V of Spain and the regent Philippe II, Duke of Orleans? The Spanish king was his uncle and had given up his rights to the French crown at the Treaty of Utrecht, but he could still denounce the renounciation. Let's say that this happens after the death of Louis XIV but before the Triple Alliance of Britain, France and the Netherlands (established in 1717 to oppose Spanish designs on Italy and the French throne, later joined by Austria to become the Quadruple Alliance). I assume that the British, Austrians and Dutch would back the Duke of Orleans. Is it possible that this would inject new vigor into the 1st Jacobite Rising?

Edit: Better yet, have it happen before Austria jumps to the aid of Venice in its war with Turkey, so this would have consequences in the east as well. Who knows, maybe the Ottomans will end up conquering Dalmatia and the Ionian Islands. That would place Louis' death sometime in September 1715-April 1716.

Who would be allied to Spain in this case? And, if Spain is alone, wouldn't Philip V try a kind of compromise perhaps?
 
Who would be allied to Spain in this case? And, if Spain is alone, wouldn't Philip V try a kind of compromise perhaps?

This is one of those either-or issues. A compromise would mean one side having to give in.

Spain's allies would be the Duke of Orleans' rivals in France (this being politics, he must've had many) and the Jacobites (who might find themselves in a better position if Britain has to divert troops to France). They might also get Prussia, Bavaria and Parma-Piacenza on their side. I'm not sure if Prussia had intervened in the Great Northern War by this time, but Sweden was in such dire straits that I think the Prussians could handle a 2-front war; they could be promised Julich-Berg, held by the Palatinate, whose foreign policy would probably favor the allies. Bavaria had fought against the Habsburgs in the last war and was not exactly friendly to them. Parma-Piacenza might be talked into it because Philip V was the duke's son-in-law.

Spain's enemies would be Britain and the Netherlands; Austria might stay out if its military strength is needed in the east. If Austria joins the war then the Spanish might get Savoy on their side (despite conflicting interests in Sicily) by promising them Milan (and maybe Austrian-held Sardinia in exchange for Sicily).

I know it would be a stretch for Philip V, but so was the War of the Quadruple Alliance in OTL, and that didn't stop him. I don't know if he was an ambitious man himself, but he was under the influence of ambitious people (his wife and his prime minister).
 

Susano

Banned
I came up with the very same PoD some weeks ago. Consensus was, despite my opposite stance, "Nobody will help Spain anyways, as nobody wants Spain and France united". And alone, Spain couldnt take on France - let alone a France backed by every other power.

For the war to happen, the powers hav eto support Spain, and that only works if Philip makes masses of concessions, most importantly the promise to keep the two realms apart (splittzing them among his sons, for example). Of course, that would probably just give us the next round of sucession wars once he dies...
 
I came up with the very same PoD some weeks ago. Consensus was, despite my opposite stance, "Nobody will help Spain anyways, as nobody wants Spain and France united". And alone, Spain couldnt take on France - let alone a France backed by every other power.

For the war to happen, the powers hav eto support Spain, and that only works if Philip makes masses of concessions, most importantly the promise to keep the two realms apart (splittzing them among his sons, for example). Of course, that would probably just give us the next round of sucession wars once he dies...

Phil doesn't seem like the sort of guy who understood his limitations. Taking on Austria wasn't smart either. I didn't say he'd stand a chance, mind you. And he wouldn't be fighting against France - he'd be fighting for it. Anyone who doesn't like the regent will be on his side.
 

Susano

Banned
Phil doesn't seem like the sort of guy who understood his limitations. Taking on Austria wasn't smart either. I didn't say he'd stand a chance, mind you. And he wouldn't be fighting against France - he'd be fighting for it. Anyone who doesn't like the regent will be on his side.

The Regent would controll France, though. Like most Wars of Sucession (and unlike teh special case of the War of the Spanish Sucession, where the country did split), it would despite the names be a straight war between two countries, for the most part.

Except...

Hm. If Louis OTL XV dies due to the same sickness that has befallen all of his family, than that is early enough not to come as a shock. Louis XIV would see that Orleans is going to inherit. While Orleans is a Bourbon line, too, speaking strictly dynastically, Louis XIV sure would prefer a descendant, especially if there is there is the slight chance the two realms can be united. So, if he appoints enough anti-Orleans people in his last years, with the implicit order to support Philip... then it could de facto be France and Spain versus the other European powers... again...
 
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