The War of Dictators 1934

[Iñaki]

Interesting new segment Arctic

I see that Alexander is living so the terrorist attack is butterflied and I suppose Barthou also is living

At the risk of the people name me Barthoumaniac or Barthouphile I think That Barthou had not let fall apart the Balkan alliance and also is very possible that the french could make some looking to another side in the case of Albania but he next years is clear that some french actions would be done to equilibrate the agressive policy of Italy.
I think that Little Entente could continue and I am not so sure that Romania decides to break up the Balkan and little Entente to join Italy.

The segment is interesting as I say but I think France would make some measures against Italy in 1935 and 1936, in fact I think that we could have a new and more interesting crisis in the Yugoslav crisis in 1936 when France could decide to act against Italy and I think we could have in this case the possibility to make a discussion as the initial about Austrian crisis about the possible votes in the League of Nations (and this time it would be very interesting who votes in favour of France and who in favour of Italy).

 

[arctic warrior]

Interesting new segment Arctic

I see that Alexander is living so the terrorist attack is butterflied and I suppose Barthou also is living

At the risk of the people name me Barthoumaniac or Barthouphile I think That Barthou had not let fall apart the Balkan alliance and also is very possible that the french could make some looking to another side in the case of Albania but he next years is clear that some french actions would be done to equilibrate the agressive policy of Italy.
I think that Little Entente could continue and I am not so sure that Romania decides to break up the Balkan and little Entente to join Italy.

The segment is interesting as I say but I think France would make some measures against Italy in 1935 and 1936, in fact I think that we could have a new and more interesting crisis in the Yugoslav crisis in 1936 when France could decide to act against Italy and I think we could have in this case the possibility to make a discussion as the initial about Austrian crisis about the possible votes in the League of Nations (and this time it would be very interesting who votes in favour of France and who in favour of Italy).

This one was difficult to continue as I earlier stated that Italy would at some point be made accontable for its actions.
I decided to butterfly the attack on Alexander and Barthou away as Alexanders visit wasn't required any more. But being freed of one wolf he would logically be watching the other, but I wiev this rally of his as very difficult in light of the 1934 War. Thats my rationale for not having such a strong reaction to the events in Yugoslavia.
Moving on to events in Spain these might call for more Italian involvement, but I haven't finished reasoning this out. Perhaps you could help?
I agree on your remarks on Barthou, however Hitler is gone and Italy is the savior of Europe - and another Europe than ours - so I think the threat of Mussolini wouln't be percieved as such. But perhaps the Greeks could come to the aid of Yugoslavia - I couldn't figure out their reaction to events in 1936.

 

[Iñaki]

Yes it is possible and plaussible that think that with the memory of the paper of Mussolini in the Austria Crisis in 1934 + I think no Ethiopia War in this ATL (so not too much looking Italy as an agressive nation) + repressive yugoeslav politic in Croatia, yes I agree is very possible that this causes that the most part of the european nations decide to look to another side in this crisis, the most part, the mention of Greece is interesting.
It could be interesting to make the greeks support Yugoeslavia to make this Yugoeslavia crisis more interesting and equilibrated.
Respect to Spanish civil War with a POD in 1934 referring to Austrian Crisis no doubt that will be very different also that as happens in the case of Edt timeline "A greater britain" it is very possible that the initial map of zones controlled by Republic and Rebels would be different than in OTL.
Also depending of zones controlled by rebels and republicans this could made an italian intervention more possible.
I will attempt to make a research about Greece and the Spanish Civil War in the books and other sources (Internet and historic magazines) to help something.

 

[arctic warrior]

I've been looking up EdT' A bigger Britain and see what you mean. Yes the Spanish general officers may be somewhere else than OTL. Franco though still in Spanish Morocco.
And then being seen as the upholder of sovereign states Italy should be on the Governments side - yes along with the Soviets.
These are just thoughts.
Greece then - perhaps some of the Italian led Albanian nationalists would go into Greece on their own or Greece might use a "homemade" incident to get involved in Yugoslavia, routing the Italians in Albania. If the Greeks had knowledge of what had really happened to the Italians in the Alps 1934, they might not be afraid of getting involved.

 

[Iñaki]

It is correct I thought that this will be a civil war very different, as in Edt "A greater britain" the zones controlled by the rebels will be different than in OTL. But I think that Italia will support the rebels, in the scenario of Edt Germany is still a great power when the Spanish civil war happens, also the politics of Mosley has made of Italy an ally, in this ATL Germany is not a power and Italy is the power that in Europe try to search an expansive way so I suppose they try to support the rebels, appart of this Sanjurjo the initial leader of the rebellion (dead in an accident in 20 july 1936 in OTL) is a monarchic and the ex king of Spain Alfonso XIII is in exile in Italy and surely this rebellion is seen by the monarch as an opportunity to recover the throne, surely Mussolini and the italian king could see with great simpathy the possibility of a spanish monarchy allied with Italy (that is also a monarchy although Mussolini is the man of power).
So I think we can have a crisis in Spain, it is possible also that with Metaxas governing in Greece in 1936 he decides to help the yugoeslavs because Metaxas was a man that clearly considered Italy as the adversary to Greece, I agree with you that a "homemade" incident could be the excuse perfect for an involvement of Greece in Yugoeslavia.

Hmm, in fact 1936 could be an interesting year: could be two crisis, Spain and Yugoeslavia and Italy is involved in the two in the rebel side so we could have a great Mediterranean crisis.
A 1936 very interesting.

 

[arctic warrior]

It is correct I thought that this will be a civil war very different, as in Edt "A greater britain" the zones controlled by the rebels will be different than in OTL. But I think that Italia will support the rebels, in the scenario of Edt Germany is still a great power when the Spanish civil war happens, also the politics of Mosley has made of Italy an ally, in this ATL Germany is not a power and Italy is the power that in Europe try to search an expansive way so I suppose they try to support the rebels, appart of this Sanjurjo the initial leader of the rebellion (dead in an accident in 20 july 1936 in OTL) is a monarchic and the ex king of Spain Alfonso XIII is in exile in Italy and surely this rebellion is seen by the monarch as an opportunity to recover the throne, surely Mussolini and the italian king could see with great simpathy the possibility of a spanish monarchy allied with Italy (that is also a monarchy although Mussolini is the man of power).
So I think we can have a crisis in Spain, it is possible also that with Metaxas governing in Greece in 1936 he decides to help the yugoeslavs because Metaxas was a man that clearly considered Italy as the adversary to Greece, I agree with you that a "homemade" incident could be the excuse perfect for an involvement of Greece in Yugoeslavia.

Hmm, in fact 1936 could be an interesting year: could be two crisis, Spain and Yugoeslavia and Italy is involved in the two in the rebel side so we could have a great Mediterranean crisis.
A 1936 very interesting.

This could be what we are looking for.
1936 Spanish civil War: Italy joins the rebels in Spain in order to reinstate Alphonso XIII. This drags the Soviet Union into the war as the defender of the Government. The Spanish navy keep the African army in Spanish Morocco. The Italians sail their troops into Spanish port in convoy to deter the Spanish navy. The British and French don't really want to go against Italy and doesn't really want to act along the Soviets, but on the other hand doesn't want to go against the lawfull Government of Spain, so they let the Soviet ships sail to Spain.
The Italian navy would be on be split for the to theaters and would be superior in cruisers (+4), destroyers (+10), subs (+31). In battleships they would be equal 4-4 and in torpedoboats inferior (-14). The rebels in Spain would have 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 3 torpedoboats.
Yugoslavia: Greek premier Metaxas orders an incident in Nortwestern Greece for an excuse to enter on the side of king Alexander. The Greek army move into Albania, routing the Italian army. The Italian air-force soon establish air superiority, but still not having a doctrine for army cooperation this is of little value. Strategic bombing is also reverted to, but with minimal effect.
As the Yugoslavs are hard pressed in the north, the Soviet Union also aid the Yugoslavs with air-craft and tanks.

 

[Iñaki]

Correct, now in 1936 Europe confronts two simultaneous crisis and Italy (ironically if we remember OTL) seems the great power that could made of the Mediterranean an italian sea (and as you say Arctic the Reggia Marina is very strong).
Times very interesting.
Respect to the possible zones of Spain occupy by the rebels, I were looking the first tome (of a total of 5) of Chronic of the Spain War and it seems that the rebels in this ATL surely could control this regions:
Canary islands
Spanish Morocco
Navarra
Cadiz
Galicia
Balearic Islands (with the exception of Menorca)
Castilla: the provinces of Burgos, Palencia, Segovia, Avila, Valladolid, Salamanca, Zamora, Soria

(in OTL in these regions the rebels occupy or control easily these provinces)

Doubts about who can control in this ATL the next provinces:
Sevilla, Huelva, Granada, Cordoba, Santander, Zaragoza, Huesca, Teruel and Alava.

The rest of the provinces surely at hands of the Republic.

Hmm, I am thinking is possible a naval battle between the Republic and Italy in the Mediterranean?

 

[arctic warrior]

I had the same thought this morning.
The Italians have to sail their troops to Spain in convoy and to avoid Spanish Government interference, just as the Soviets would have, I guess in the long run to sail their military equipment for the Government from the Baltic to a Northern Spanish port. I think the Italians would be very unwilling to let the Soviets, in lieu of the friendship treaty of 1934 to sail materiel to Spain. But then we would also have the possibility of an Italian - Greek/Yugoslavian naval battle at the Italian Dunkirk of Albania!
With all this naval activity in the Med, the French or British navies would easily get in harms way, dragging either or both into the fray.
Airpower wouldn't be as crucial as OTL because of no German involvement. But of course airpower would be of significance in cooperation with army units, but I don't think we would see a Guernica.
Having had half their army bled in the Alps in 1934, I think the Italian involvement on the ground will be very cautious. The Regia Aeronautica will be another matter having their great reputation now and the Regia Marina will be eager to show themselves off. This might lead to disaster against determined Spanish and Greek navies.

 

[MarkA]

I had the same thought this morning.
The Italians have to sail their troops to Spain in convoy and to avoid Spanish Government interference, just as the Soviets would have, I guess in the long run to sail their military equipment for the Government from the Baltic to a Northern Spanish port. I think the Italians would be very unwilling to let the Soviets, in lieu of the friendship treaty of 1934 to sail materiel to Spain. But then we would also have the possibility of an Italian - Greek/Yugoslavian naval battle at the Italian Dunkirk of Albania!
With all this naval activity in the Med, the French or British navies would easily get in harms way, dragging either or both into the fray.
Airpower wouldn't be as crucial as OTL because of no German involvement. But of course airpower would be of significance in cooperation with army units, but I don't think we would see a Guernica.
Having had half their army bled in the Alps in 1934, I think the Italian involvement on the ground will be very cautious. The Regia Aeronautica will be another matter having their great reputation now and the Regia Marina will be eager to show themselves off. This might lead to disaster against determined Spanish and Greek navies.

Italian losses in the war against Germany will, as you say, make them more wary. I would think it would make them so wary that they will not intervene militarily in Spain. Sending air support and supplies, similar in fact to Soviet support for the Republic in OTL, minus the organizing of any Fascist equivilent of the International Brigades.

Mussolini would still support the reactionaries in Spain. If he is involved in Albania with the possibility of a double demand on the military, soldiers sent to Spain would be limited to advisors. This would allow, along with the absence of German support, the Republican defenders to triumph.

France and Britain would still enforce a blockade of Spain. Would there still be a Popular Front government in France?

 

[arctic warrior]

Italian losses in the war against Germany will, as you say, make them more wary. I would think it would make them so wary that they will not intervene militarily in Spain. Sending air support and supplies, similar in fact to Soviet support for the Republic in OTL, minus the organizing of any Fascist equivilent of the International Brigades.

Mussolini would still support the reactionaries in Spain. If he is involved in Albania with the possibility of a double demand on the military, soldiers sent to Spain would be limited to advisors. This would allow, along with the absence of German support, the Republican defenders to triumph.

France and Britain would still enforce a blockade of Spain. Would there still be a Popular Front government in France?

Good point MarkA.
Only Italian airforce and navy along with army advisors and materiel as aid to the Spanish Generals then.
No I don't think in relation to the events in 1934 that the French will percieve the situation as warranting co-operation with the communistists. On the other hand, I'm unsure of the French having regained their will to run things their way in Europe?
I am thinking that I have percieved the situation after the 1934 war wrongly. The events then could have led to a more determined France, not needing the support of Britain! It could also have led to a clear political situation in France, now that the German threat is out of the way.
This other perception should lead to France being more dominant in Eastern Europe now establishing a front versus the Soviet Union. This could make for no admitting of the Soviet Union in the League of Nations. France would then counter Italian aggression in Eastern Europe because of the need to contain the Soviet Union and would so slap Mussolini when he tried to break up Yugoslavia. This would also mean no Italian interference in the Spanish Civil War and a win for the Republicans.
Stalin could still feel the need for world revolution and we could have WWII of Britain, France, Japan and the US against the Soviet Union? 1938 with cavalry/motorized and French Armoured div.s against Soviet Tank corps. Still lots of biplane aircraft and only twin-engine bombers?

 

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Arctic warrior
This could make for no admitting of the Soviet Union in the League of Nations.

Hmm, it could be too late to stop this, Soviet Union was new member in OTL in september 1934.
The crisis in TTL of Austria is in july-august 1934 and no doubt that Soviet Union will have supported the actions against Germany and Hitler, so surely is very difficult to make a coordinated politic to stop being member the Soviet Union of League of Nations apart naturally that soviets surely supported publicily the politics of France against Germany.
Naturally this not means that France not have an strong politic against Soviet Union,as you say France surely perceive now that the danger of Germany is neutralized that Soviet Union is a possible danger and this means reinforce the Little Entente, but I think that is very difficult that we can prevent Soviet Union being member of League of Nations in september 1934.

 

[arctic warrior]

Hmm, it could be too late to stop this, Soviet Union was new member in OTL in september 1934.
The crisis in TTL of Austria is in july-august 1934 and no doubt that Soviet Union will have supported the actions against Germany and Hitler, so surely is very difficult to make a coordinated politic to stop being member the Soviet Union of League of Nations apart naturally that soviets surely supported publicily the politics of France against Germany.
Naturally this not means that France not have an strong politic against Soviet Union,as you say France surely perceive now that the danger of Germany is neutralized that Soviet Union is a possible danger and this means reinforce the Little Entente, but I think that is very difficult that we can prevent Soviet Union being member of League of Nations in september 1934.

You're absolutely right - forgot my own reading on the subject

 

[MarkA]

I do not think France would perceive the Soviet Union as a threat to the European peace. Stalin did not espouse world revolution in fact his ideology was exactly the opposite - socialism in one country. The Little Entente was concieved as an alliance against Germany not the USSR. Indeed, the USSR was envisaged as the critical element in the success of the collective defence strategy behind the formation of the LE. Only Poland's intrancience and Britian's refusal to actively pursue the collective security strategy led to its demise.

If the German military threat was eliminated as a result of Mussolini's decisive actions, this would leave France as the major power on the continent. Most observers believed it was in OTL - remember Churchill's famous words, 'Thank god for the French army.' France would then not need British guarantees and would adopt a more independent foreign policy. I would think this would lead to more punative measures against Germany. Insistance on full reparations and the strict adherence by Germany to the peace treaty terms for example.

This would inevitably lead to French occupation of the Rhineland, German resistance, French repression and eventually world opinion swinging behind the oppressed German people. In other words a complete diplomatic disaster for France leading to humilation.

Would the leading military power in Europe then see itself a victim like Germany did in OTL? Would this lead to rabid nationalism and a dream of French hegemony over the continent even by the use of naked aggression? Or would the Spainish military coup and resulting civil war push France to the left?

 

[BurningWickerman]

Would the leading military power in Europe then see itself a victim like Germany did in OTL? Would this lead to rabid nationalism and a dream of French hegemony over the continent even by the use of naked aggression? Or would the Spainish military coup and resulting civil war push France to the left?

Their not mutually exsclusive. Actual nationals socialists come to power in France?
France and the USSR divide up Central europe while Italy looks on helplessly and Britain stays mildy apathetic about the 'europe issue'.

 

[arctic warrior]

I do not think France would perceive the Soviet Union as a threat to the European peace. Stalin did not espouse world revolution in fact his ideology was exactly the opposite - socialism in one country. The Little Entente was concieved as an alliance against Germany not the USSR. Indeed, the USSR was envisaged as the critical element in the success of the collective defence strategy behind the formation of the LE. Only Poland's intrancience and Britian's refusal to actively pursue the collective security strategy led to its demise.

If the German military threat was eliminated as a result of Mussolini's decisive actions, this would leave France as the major power on the continent. Most observers believed it was in OTL - remember Churchill's famous words, 'Thank god for the French army.' France would then not need British guarantees and would adopt a more independent foreign policy. I would think this would lead to more punative measures against Germany. Insistance on full reparations and the strict adherence by Germany to the peace treaty terms for example.

This would inevitably lead to French occupation of the Rhineland, German resistance, French repression and eventually world opinion swinging behind the oppressed German people. In other words a complete diplomatic disaster for France leading to humilation.

Would the leading military power in Europe then see itself a victim like Germany did in OTL? Would this lead to rabid nationalism and a dream of French hegemony over the continent even by the use of naked aggression? Or would the Spainish military coup and resulting civil war push France to the left?

Stalins socialism in one country was only formulated in 1924 and adopted be the Komintern in 1925. It was originally a countermove on Trotsky's ideas. Stalin still disliked Western Bourgoisie and saw Fascism as part of this. There were also a dislike in the west of communism that might spread; even so in my lifespan! One reason for late Norwegian mobilization 1940 was the fact that military rifles were in military depots but the bolts were at police stations to counter possible worker insurgents. So you can't dismiss the fear of communism.
As I stated earlier France would still, especially with no Popular Front Governtment as no German threat, build a bulwark in the east towards the Soviets. France would be pushed right but not to Fascism.
The occupation of Germany as stated in an earlier post would be a multinational affair involving Britain, Belgium, Poland and Italy as well as France. More a post-WWII situation but of course with possible French excessess in its zone.
France would be the real guardian of Europe, and sometime soon come to grips with Italy and the defender against communism. Remember there was also a strong White Russian exile-colony in France.

 

[MarkA]

Stalins socialism in one country was only formulated in 1924 and adopted be the Komintern in 1925. It was originally a countermove on Trotsky's ideas. Stalin still disliked Western Bourgoisie and saw Fascism as part of this. There were also a dislike in the west of communism that might spread; even so in my lifespan! One reason for late Norwegian mobilization 1940 was the fact that military rifles were in military depots but the bolts were at police stations to counter possible worker insurgents. So you can't dismiss the fear of communism.
As I stated earlier France would still, especially with no Popular Front Governtment as no German threat, build a bulwark in the east towards the Soviets. France would be pushed right but not to Fascism.
The occupation of Germany as stated in an earlier post would be a multinational affair involving Britain, Belgium, Poland and Italy as well as France. More a post-WWII situation but of course with possible French excessess in its zone.
France would be the real guardian of Europe, and sometime soon come to grips with Italy and the defender against communism. Remember there was also a strong White Russian exile-colony in France.

I do not follow your point? You agree that Stalin espoused socialism in one country. It happened in the1920's before this ATL. What threat would France see from the USSR?

 

[arctic warrior]

I do not follow your point? You agree that Stalin espoused socialism in one country. It happened in the1920's before this ATL. What threat would France see from the USSR?

France would see the threat that the British also saw, at least after the raid on the Arcos offices on May 12, 1927. The same threat that my officers told me during my term of national service in 1980-82 and that is now a public theme as the national archives of East and West is opening up - or how are things down under???

 

[Iñaki]

The difference I think between socialism in one country of Stalin and Trotski theory of the need to export the socialism quickly was in fact a question of tactics, Trotski believes that was necessary being a revolutionary nation trying to export the communism (so he was an idealistic agresive communist imperialist ) Stalin believes that first consolidate the Soviet Union to make the Soviet Union a great potence but also Stalin believes in the possibilities of exporting the communism only that he was a pragmatist in this question, Trotski had try to export militarly the communism without realizing that this could provoke a general war against the Soviet Union that at the end could be a total defeat for the Soviet Union, Stalin realize this, but this not means that Stalin don´t wanted profit all the opportunities to expand the communist to other regions (when Soviet Union had the opportunity with the Soviet-German Pact of 1939 of having the backs well guarded against possible actions of the Western nations, he obligates the baltic states to permit soviet military bases in 1939 and after he annexes the baltic states in 1940, also the finnish war in 1939-40 and the annexation of Besarabia in 1940, in fact there was soviet plans to make of Romania an informal protectorate trying to repeat the scheme of Baltic States, but Hitler makes clear to Stalin that this was not possible, Stalin not wanting to upset his "ally" Hitler decided to not insist in this thing)

So in fact a thread from USSR exists is only the existence of Little Entente and the potence of France that makes the Soviet Union make a peaceful politic, but if you eliminates the Little Entente and France Stalin surely had profited this to make some interesting changes in the government of the eastern Countries.

So the USSR is a real thread.