The Vistula-Oder Offensive Takes Berlin

In January 1945 Soviet forces began the Vistula-Oder Offensive, which by January 31st had reached the Oder-Neisse Line, cut off German forces in East Prussia, and destroyed the vast majority of German forces in Poland. Only a hastily thrown together force remained along the Oder remained to halt Soviet forces which were only 70 kilometers from Berlin itself. But the Soviets halted due to German resistance on the flanks and logistic problems with a sudden thaw following a large blizzard which bogged down the advance. If the Soviets had ignored their flank problems, which in reality only existed in Zhukov's head, and resolved their logistics problems to some degree, could they have taken Berlin? And if so, how does the war end with the Soviets now driving into East German in February of 1945 while the Allies are still pushing towards the Rhine? While occupation zones have already been worked out, Denmark and other states are still quite vulnerable. Plus, a faster end of the European War could lead to an earlier Soviet entrance into the Pacific War. Thoughts?
 
The Soviets don't have the capability to simply bull onto Berlin at this point. This is the Market Garden of the Axis-Soviet War, a turning point that never was.
 
The Soviets don't have the capability to simply bull onto Berlin at this point. This is the Market Garden of the Axis-Soviet War, a turning point that never was.

Alrighty, wasn't sure. A couple sources I looked at stated that actual German resistance had ceased to effectively be able to stop the Soviets and that logistics and weather were primarily to blame. Though those are hard to resolve.
 
Alrighty, wasn't sure. A couple sources I looked at stated that actual German resistance had ceased to effectively be able to stop the Soviets and that logistics and weather were primarily to blame. Though those are hard to resolve.

Not really. There was a flank attack aimed at Zhukov's flank that while unimpressive from a military viewpoint led the Stavka to call back the offensive and seek to clear its flanks. The Soviets were no more able to launch a single strike than the democracies were, modern armies do best in sequential, staggered offensives.
 
fortress cities

Another problem the Red Army faced was several German cities in their rear that the Germans had heavily fortified on Hitler's orders. At the time the Red Army halted their advance several of these fortress cities had not yet been reduced. All of these cities were at key spots (many bridges, road and rail lines meeting, etc) that greatly hampered Red Army logistics. While none of these fortress cities held out for long, they held out long enough to
force the Red Army to pause and consolidate. While not affecting the outcome of the campaign or the war, they did play havoc with logistics.
 
The Soviets don't have the capability to simply bull onto Berlin at this point. This is the Market Garden of the Axis-Soviet War, a turning point that never was.

Not really. There was a flank attack aimed at Zhukov's flank that while unimpressive from a military viewpoint led the Stavka to call back the offensive and seek to clear its flanks. The Soviets were no more able to launch a single strike than the democracies were, modern armies do best in sequential, staggered offensives.

According to Glantz in this video, specifically after the 50th minute (and Glantz has extensively studied the Red Army in World War II) the idea that the Soviets had no capability to move on to Berlin at this point is a myth.

Apparently the reason for the Soviet pause at the Oder was to consolidate gains in Hungary and Austria specifically. Stavka gave orders to go to Berlin on February 2 and then on February 8 and 9 new orders came to halt. February 8-10 was also the time of the Yalta Conference during which agreements were made on spheres of influence and so on (except for Austria). Afterwards the Soviets transfer forces into Hungary throughout February and March. The Soviets take Vienna on April 13-15 and then the Berlin offensive starts April 16. During the time taken to take Vienna the Soviets also secured their flanks for the Berlin offensive.

So the Soviets could have gone on to take Berlin in February 1945. That would lead to major butterflies for the rest of the war. Hitler would have stayed in Berlin even if he ordered the evacuation of some of the government to the redoubt in Berchtesgaden. Maybe he would have killed himself sooner. Maybe he would have been captured by the Red Army. Either way, once Berlin fell the game would be up and Hitler's successor would have signed a surrender document with the Allies (not just the Western Allies) and the war in Europe would essentially be over by March, except for some mopping up operations. The Soviets would end up in Prague and Vienna anyway since by February/March the Western Allies are still around the Rhine.

The effects on the war in Japan though would be even greater. According the D.M. Giangreco in his book Hell To Pay (which is okay, but I have found a number of problems with it) Eisenhower had not wanted to get involved in a protracted fight for Berlin anyway since it would have committed a lot of troops that should have been getting ready to be transferred to the Pacific. An end to major combat operation in Europe in March 1945 instead of May 1945 would:

- mean that a lot of American troops who in OTL had gained enough points under the Advanced Service Rating Score and been discharged would fall short in this TL meaning that more troops would be available (and available earlier) for the Pacific campaign.

- the Soviets lose less soldiers in the battle for Berlin and probably other campaigns and as a result of the Tehran and Yalta agreements would be in a position to enter the Pacific War earlier (they promised to enter the Pacific War within 3 months of the end of the war in Europe and did so in OTL) - in TTL they could enter the Pacific War in June 1945.

- the British would have more troops to transfer to the fighting in Southeast Asia. So perhaps we see an earlier Operation Zipper.

Do we see an earlier invasion of Japan? Who knows. Would an earlier invasion of Kyushu (say in July/August) work? Perhaps. But then with an earlier collapse of the Nazis and with the Japanese working out the invasion beaches anyway, the Japanese are likely to start reinforcing Kyushu earlier. An earlier invasion of Japan though probably means all those Allied POWs scattered across Asia get executed.
 
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Ok, and earlier operation Downfall?

Could the bombs be ready in May/June? If not, maybe Downfall would have been attempted?

What would another few months have gained in any event?

Ivan
 
Ok, and earlier operation Downfall?

Could the bombs be ready in May/June? If not, maybe Downfall would have been attempted?

What would another few months have gained in any event?

Ivan

The first atomic bomb test was in July, so I don't see the Bomb being available much earlier.

An earlier Downfall would have to be done within the context of the ideal weather. Originally Downfall was scheduled for November but given the constraints probably couldn't occur until December. An earlier end to the war in Europe would mean a November date would be very possible, and perhaps even an October date. An earlier date than that would probably have to be before the rainy/monsoon/peak typhoon season in June. Maybe the US would be willing to risk going in during July/August, but not sure if they could go in before June.
 
Another problem the Red Army faced was several German cities in their rear that the Germans had heavily fortified on Hitler's orders. At the time the Red Army halted their advance several of these fortress cities had not yet been reduced. All of these cities were at key spots (many bridges, road and rail lines meeting, etc) that greatly hampered Red Army logistics. While none of these fortress cities held out for long, they held out long enough to
force the Red Army to pause and consolidate. While not affecting the outcome of the campaign or the war, they did play havoc with logistics.

The fortress cities factor did have some relevance, but a very limited variant of some. You never hear about the 1944-5 battles from the Axis fanboys for a reason: it illustrates graphically that their precious butchers and rapists in Feldgrau got as thoroughly smashed under the Soviet steel rain as their western counterparts were in the Ruhr pocket. The effect of the fortress cities was relevant insofar as it compounded logistical reorganization after the Vistula-Oder offensive.

The only case where one did have some significant impact was Breslau.
 
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