The Virgin Queen Felled by Smallpox

I once read that Queen Elizabeth I of England nearly died of smallpox in 1562. Since I do not know much about late 16th Century European Geopolitics, I ask you who do you think her successor would have been,and what would have been the political effects.
 
Well, as I recall, she gave orders for Robert Dudley to be made Lord Protector of the Realm in the event of her death.

At this point, the heir according to the Will of Henry VIII is Catherine Grey, who been recently removed to house arrest in London for the Seymour affair at this point IIRC. If she succeeds, the most likely outcome is for the priest who witnessed her wedding to the Earl of Hereford to be "found" and the annulment of their marriage reversed earlier than in OTL.

However, there is also Lord Darnley to consider, as he is still in England and not yet a candidate for the hand of Mary Stuart. Despite being excluded by Henry VIII's will, he has a lot going for him by virtue of his sex. His mother, Margaret Douglas, was very ambitious and closely linked with the Catholic faction at court. She's not going to hesitate to put her son on the throne if she has the chance, and considering his rivals are Catherine Grey (a woman who has already disgraced herself and carries a lot of baggage with her connexions to the Seymours and Lady Jane) and her sister Mary Grey (who was deformed and never really taken seriously), Margaret Douglas may well succeed.

If Henry Stuart manages to secure the throne, his mother and the Catholic faction will rule through him no doubt, considering his character in OTL. Remember, at this point, England is still nominally in communion with Rome (Elizabeth wasn't excommunicated until 1570), so at the very least, the Church will probably pursue a conservative course similar to the previous Henrician settlement. Without the Elizabethan settlement, the reformist undercurrent that exists (still a minority, but a vocal and well placed one) is going to be alienated and this will create a lot of religious turmoil--though I can't see it going as far as the Marian persecutions, considering how unpopular it was with both Catholics and Protestants.

Also, the old Marian power structure and policy would likely see a resurgence under Darnley. At the very least, England will be allied closely with Spain, since Mary of Scots is probably still going to claim the Crown (though she isn't really a threat at this point).

If Catherine Grey manages to secure power, she'll likely be dominated by her husband, the Earl of Hereford, considering the consensus seems to be that she wasn't the strongest of characters. This means a possible return to the Edwardian policies and religious settlement (the Seymours were staunch Protestants), which will please the reformists but alienate the Catholics and likely cause trouble down the road as well.

In either case, things will be very different in the coming decades.
 

Stolengood

Banned
What about Henry's illegitimates? The surviving ones, I mean; the Careys. What of them? Would either attempt a power grab?

There is also, of course, Lettice Knollys to consider...
 
What about Henry's illegitimates? The surviving ones, I mean; the Careys. What of them? Would either attempt a power grab?

There is also, of course, Lettice Knollys to consider...

It's doubtful that Henry VIII was the father of either Henry or Catherine Carey and in any case he never acknowledged paternity or gave any other indication that he was.

As for Lettice Knollys, well, what about her?
 
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Two other possibilities may be:
Arthur Pole (1531-1570),last legitimate descendant of George ,Duke of Clarence and brother of Edward IV.
Thomas Percy,descendant of both the father of Edward IV,and the Neville family. Executed for leading the Rising of the North in 1570.
As far as I know,both were Catholic.
 
Two other possibilities may be:
Arthur Pole (1531-1570),last legitimate descendant of George ,Duke of Clarence and brother of Edward IV.
Thomas Percy,descendant of both the father of Edward IV,and the Neville family. Executed for leading the Rising of the North in 1570.
As far as I know,both were Catholic.
Wasn't one of the Stanleys a potential candidate too, or was that only at a different stage of Elizabeth's reign?
 
Succession in 1562

Under Henry VIII's will

Lady Catherine Grey and her son Edward Seymour
Lady Mary Grey
Lady Margaret Clifford Countess of Derby and her sons
Ferdinando Stanley
William Stanley
Francis Stanley

Under male pref primogeniture from Henry VII
Mary Queen of Scots
Lady Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox
Henry Stuart Lord Darnley
Charles Stuart
Then as above

That exhausts the lineal descendants of Henry VII

Other claimants
Descendants of Edward IV listed above as his only descendants by 1562 were those of his daughter Elizabeth of York
Descendants of George Duke of Clarence
Chief claimant
Catherine Pole Countess of Huntingdon and her 11 children but primarily her son
Henry Hastings 3rd Earl of Huntingdon
To list all the other Pole claimants would take pages
Descendants of Anne of York eldest sister of Edward IV
Henry Manners 2nd Earl of Rutland
Descendants of Isabel of Cambridge Aunt of Edward IV
Anne Bourchier the estranged scandalous wife of William Parr
Walter Devereux Earl of Essex

The above are the principal claimants in the York line

In the Lancastrian line the senior claim excluding the Beaufort's rests with the descendants of Philippa Queen of Portugal
Sebastian I of Portugal
If you include the Beaufort claim then the main claimant is Thomas Percy 7th Earl of Northumberland
 
Succession in 1562

Under Henry VIII's will

Lady Catherine Grey
- her son Edward Seymour
Lady Mary Grey
Lady Margaret Clifford Countess of Derby and her sons:
- Ferdinando Stanley
- William Stanley
- Francis Stanley

Under male pref primogeniture from Henry VII
Mary Queen of Scots
Lady Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox and her sons
- Henry Stuart Lord Darnley
- Charles Stuart

Then as above

ISTM that either the will holds, so the crown goes to Catherine Grey, or more likely her son, or the will falls, and the crown goes to Mary Queen of Scots.

Of course both lines are complicated by circumstances.

Catherine is illegally married and in the Tower of London. The marriage was declared annulled and Edward Seymour a bastard, but that was sometime in 1562 and might not have happened yet.

Catherine's sister Mary is homely and perhaps deformed.

Margaret Stanley is 22; her sons are toddlers, and her husband is a political player with some baggage - plus they don't get on well.

Mary on the other hand is Catholic and a foreigner.

Margaret Douglas is a veteran of court intrigues. She's 47, her son Henry is 17. Does she really have a shot at the crown? Her husband Lennox is around. They too are Catholic, as are their sons. (Why Elizabeth kept so many Catholics around is confusing to me.)

What are the possibilities? If Catherine's marriage has not been annulled, she has IMHO a good chance. If it has, her claim is sorta void, but the claims of Mary Grey or the Stanleys would be tainted too.

The Stuart group have a card to play - they can become Protestant. I don't know whether Lennox, Margaret, or Henry would be willing, but it could be a trump card. Is London worth less than a Mass?
 
Margaret Douglas getting her son Darnley the throne reminds me very much of Margaret Beaufort and Henry Tudor several generations ago. Although Darnley is no Henry VII.
 
In fact I once wrote an bad timeline where nearly every claimant to the English throne and nobleman united against James I. And James I was much easier to swallow than Darnley would have been!
 
At the time of Elizabeth's illness the council did apparently consider two main candidates Catherine Grey and the Earl of Huntingdon.

One advantage for the Protestant faction was that Catherine Grey's marriage had only really been declared invalid because of Elizabeth's fury - helped by the fact that Elizabeth personally had little fondness for her Grey cousin's.

Another advantage was that unlike Elizabeth she was married to a Protestant husband and had produced a son and is pregnant with another child.

The likeliest is that the protestant group will name Catherine for two reasons she was the legal heir by statute and the only available obvious protestant Tudor claimant.

Other issues aside she has a strong chance of holding the throne at least in the short-term.
 
ISTM that either the will holds, so the crown goes to Catherine Grey, or more likely her son, or the will falls, and the crown goes to Mary Queen of Scots.

Of course both lines are complicated by circumstances.

Catherine is illegally married and in the Tower of London. The marriage was declared annulled and Edward Seymour a bastard, but that was sometime in 1562 and might not have happened yet.

Catherine's sister Mary is homely and perhaps deformed.

Margaret Stanley is 22; her sons are toddlers, and her husband is a political player with some baggage - plus they don't get on well.

Mary on the other hand is Catholic and a foreigner.

Margaret Douglas is a veteran of court intrigues. She's 47, her son Henry is 17. Does she really have a shot at the crown? Her husband Lennox is around. They too are Catholic, as are their sons. (Why Elizabeth kept so many Catholics around is confusing to me.)

What are the possibilities? If Catherine's marriage has not been annulled, she has IMHO a good chance. If it has, her claim is sorta void, but the claims of Mary Grey or the Stanleys would be tainted too.

The Stuart group have a card to play - they can become Protestant. I don't know whether Lennox, Margaret, or Henry would be willing, but it could be a trump card. Is London worth less than a Mass?

Elizabeths bout of Smallpox was October 1562 and Lady Grey was imprisoned in August 1561. The Archbishop of Canterbury took "several months" to annul the marriage so Lady Grey's marriage was almost certainly void by the time smallpox arrived.

More interestingly would be if she had kept the proof her husband allegedly gave her of their marriage. It may not have been decisive but it might have lengthened her "trial" such that it was unresolved by the time Elizabeth fell ill.
 
Yes not helped by the fact that John Hales had just offended Elizabeth with his book arguing Catherine's rights as heiress presumptive.

However her marriage could be sorted out and her son declared legitimate fairly easily - I am sure Cecil and others could suddenly find the missing document if that was all that stood between a protestant heir and a foreign Catholic one.

Her big advantage if Elizabeth died was Catherine was already physically near to the centre of power and it isn't such a big step from being a prisoner in the tower to the throne as Elizabeth herself proved.

The Catholic contingent are going to have divided loyalties - Mary Stuart (who is doing very little in Scotland to prove her Catholic loyalties accepting instead as she did that Scotland was a Protestant nation), Margaret Douglas and her sons (who were not doggedly Catholic even if they were nominally so).
 
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