The Valve Closed

Hello and here is my newest and hopefully less ASB TL. I'm basing this on an extended Arab oil Embargo due to Israel in the wake of the Yom Kippur war being more militaristic and refusing to move out of the occupied territories on the Sinai. This flies in the face of promises made by the US to OPEC for their withdrawal, thus extending the embargo. I'm exploring the effect this may have on the Cold War and Western nations in general. I hope if you read this you enjoy.

1974: Amid a continued oil embargo by OPEC the United States under Gerald Ford seeks a diplomatic solution to the current oil crisis. Negotiations with Israel have broken down after Israel has staunchly refused to evacuate the Sinai Peninsula or the Golan Heights. With OPEC seeing the American promise of Israeli troops with drawls fall flat on its face the Arab nations flat out reject any chance of lifting the embargo past 1975 in order to give the US a little extra incentive to continue their negotiations.

In Asia as the Vietnam war grinds on communist guerrillas continue to wage a vicious campaign against American service men. North Vietnam resolutely continues its campaign to control the south. At home American support for the war dwindles rapidly as more and more young men are sent to the front. Protests become more common. Gas prices soar and the government considers rationing fuel and broadcasts such warnings to the public. Further earning resentment. The withdrawal of troops begins in earnest as more men are brought home in order to appease the popular demand at home.

In Europe the oil embargo sparks fierce criticism of NATO. England is the first nation to publicly condemn the United State's lack of progress in stopping Israels aggression. France soon follows as other NATO nations seek to distance themselves from the the US. Turkey begins to question its part in the Alliance and there are protests demanding the nations withdrawal from the alliance. Japan seeks more business with the Arab states and seeks to compensate by increased trade agreements.

The Soviet Union reacts lethargically. The corrupt government under Leonid Brezhnev has little to say on the issue. They provide support to OPEC diplomatically but do little else save import more oil to their Warsaw puppets. Little does Brezhnev know that more aggressive players wait in the wings.

The world stands on a knife edge as black gold seems to become more scarce in the West.
 
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Fuel Rage

By early 1975 it was clear to most Americans that the embargo was not going to end anytime soon. Fuel rationing was being introduced at some level all over the country. Some stations had already run dry and fuel was being sent into military and shipping sectors with little left over for civilian economies. Protests were becoming a weekly occurrence on the East Coast. Philadelphia, New York, Washington, Boston, Miami, and Baltimore were the worst hit by protests with over 300,000 protesting the governments actions on any given day. On the West Coast Los Angeles was the hardest hit city from rioting. Several large civil disturbances were also reported along the coast but with little else of note.

One of the more notable cases of civil unrest was when the Iowa National Guard learned that fuel was being diverted to their units and away from the production sector they resolutely refused to follow orders and had a 'sit in' style protest where they would not leave their bases nor would they comply with deployment orders bases in Germany. Many protesters declared solidarity with the mutineers and President Ford was forced to accept their demands. Not only did they not have to deploy but all of their fuel assets would go to the production industry in Iowa for the next year.

Coupled with the now complete withdrawal of troops from Vietnam it was shaping up to be a bad year. US popular opinion was that the war had been a waste of lives and of resources. As a result the public opinion had shifted from a very militant stance to a very resentful one. When soldiers arrived home they found themselves demobilized without any job benefits or back pay that they had been promised. It was a case of cutting costs.

In Europe European nations were anxious to return the flow of oil to their economies. Germany, France and Great Britain were the first to begin making very tempting trade deals with OPEC nations. On the part of France it was mostly with weapons and scientists. This was music to the ears of many in OPEC who were eager to supply their regional allies in the Arab League and to rearm their under equipped forces (save for Saudi Arabia which was still well armed by US weapons). These would begin a series of economic measures designed to keep Arab oil flowing to Europe. Many other NATO members Turkey, Italy, and Greece respectively were forced to look to the Soviet Union in order to provide their short term oil needs as they could not keep themselves afloat without the oil that nation produced.

Italy, France, Greece, and Japan each suffered waves of protest against NATO. In Japan the resentment was that American forces were still stationed in their country and were seen as very unhelpful. Demands for energy reform were heard in each of these countries. In France they fell on more receptive ears. This did however force the government to go to great lengths in order to keep oil flowing so they could power their drive to independent fuels. Of nuclear power was the most viable option for France and thus the 'French Model' of national power was born.
 
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In Europe the oil embargo sparks fierce criticism of NATO. England is the first nation to publicly condemn the United State's lack of progress in stopping Israels aggression.


Israeli aggression? Who attacked who, again? Oh right! Israel tricked the peace-loving Arabs into attacking them, and is being completely unreasonable about keeping ground they've conquered.

Uh, oh, my computer is about to float away on a tidal wave of sarcasm...
 
OPEC writes its death warrant

OPEC had very little to gain by maintaining its embargo. If it got too painful for Western economies, people would find alternative sources of oil, gotten more serious about coal gasification, and energy conservation strategies so no nation could step on the hose again.
As it was, it spurred a flurry of oil exploration in non-OPEC countries that crashed the price of oil in the 1980's. ITTL, you'd see a much more serious push for energy independence IMNSHO.
 
Israeli aggression? Who attacked who, again? Oh right! Israel tricked the peace-loving Arabs into attacking them, and is being completely unreasonable about keeping ground they've conquered.

Uh, oh, my computer is about to float away on a tidal wave of sarcasm...

This TL doesn't relflect my views on Israel the US or the Arab states. The above term "Israeli aggression" is only used as a diplomatic weapon by England in an attempt to lift the Embargo on their own country. (Which note was only a reduction of sales and not a complete stop of the flow of oil).

I'm sorry if you thought I was being anti-Semetic. I'll be sure to post a disclaimer next time.
 
OPEC had very little to gain by maintaining its embargo. If it got too painful for Western economies, people would find alternative sources of oil, gotten more serious about coal gasification, and energy conservation strategies so no nation could step on the hose again.
As it was, it spurred a flurry of oil exploration in non-OPEC countries that crashed the price of oil in the 1980's. ITTL, you'd see a much more serious push for energy independence IMNSHO.

I'm fully aware of that and thats the point I'm getting at with the 'French Model' stated above. IMHO nuclear power was the most reasonable option for Europe and America and this extended embargo is pushing the limits of public patience in Europe and Japan as more people would like to see independant energy. That will take a little while though as you can't expect nuclear plants to spring up overnight. Which means that the US and her allies will still be relying on oil imported from OPEC in order to build up these programs. Since IOTL Opec lifted the Embargo in 1974 the quick implementation of these programs was easily possible. However, with a continued oil embargo these programs will take longer to implement.
 
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