The Valois don't die out: WI Charles IX of France has a son?

As the title says. In 1572, just two months after the Saint Bartholomew's Massacre, the wife of Charles IX of France - Elisabeth of Austria - gave birth to his only daughter - Marie Elisabeth of Valois. However, the queen never gave birth again, and when Charles dies two years later his brother Henry became king of France. But he would also die childless, starting the succession crisis that increased the French Religious Wars (as the Catholic League didn't accept the Protestant Henry III of Navarre as king).

Now, WI Elisabeth had given birth to son instead, who is also luckier than Marie and doesn't die young? How could it affect the religious conflict in France? Also, given that now Henry doesn't have a throne in France, would he stay as king of Poland?
 
An interesting POD!

This future *Charles X is likely to be heavily influenced by his anti-protestant mother and possibly the Duke of Guise. This may result in a future war against the Protestant Henry III of Navarre who'll likely already be allied with England and the Dutch.

Henry I Valois, King of Poland, Grand Prince of Lithuania, will likely remain so. He may have to marry Anna Jagiellon to secure his throne. If he does and manages to have children then John III Vasa's descendants will remain Kings of Sweden rather than Poland. Though since John is married to Anna's sister Katherine it may only delay a Vasa being elected.

Henry III of Navarre will remain Protestant and probably marry a daughter of William the Silent, the Dutch Stadtholder. If he's lucky he'll avoid being conquered by France or Spain. He or one of his sons may still inherit France if *Charles X is also childless. Thus the French Succession/Religious Wars could happen a generation later.
 
An interesting POD!

This future *Charles X is likely to be heavily influenced by his anti-protestant mother and possibly the Duke of Guise. This may result in a future war against the Protestant Henry III of Navarre who'll likely already be allied with England and the Dutch.

It's possible that there would conflict over the regency of the young Charles X (or Henry III, after Charles' father). After all, while his mother would want it (supported by the Guise) Catherine de Medicis was still alive and wouldn't want to see the Guises having such influence. She might try to make Francis of Anjou the regent, in order to have power over the king.

Henry I Valois, King of Poland, Grand Prince of Lithuania, will likely remain so. He may have to marry Anna Jagiellon to secure his throne. If he does and manages to have children then John III Vasa's descendants will remain Kings of Sweden rather than Poland. Though since John is married to Anna's sister Katherine it may only delay a Vasa being elected.

Well, Anna Jagiellon was already over 50 when Henry went to Poland, so it's almost impossible to her have children. After Henry the throne would go to someone else, but his presence in Poland would butterfly away Stephen Bathory. Any idea of how would Henry's rule be in Poland?

Also, as IOTL Henry was killed in 1589, ITTL we can assume that he would have a much longer life. It would be interesting to see what happens if he survives Anna and remarry. Could he secure the throne for his own line, or the Vasas would still be the preferred option?

Henry III of Navarre will remain Protestant and probably marry a daughter of William the Silent, the Dutch Stadtholder. If he's lucky he'll avoid being conquered by France or Spain. He or one of his sons may still inherit France if *Charles X is also childless. Thus the French Succession/Religious Wars could happen a generation later.

I'm not so sure about that. He could have annulled his marriage to Margaret IOTL at any time, but only did it after having secured the French throne for him. I don't know why he didn't do it before, maybe ITTL he might think different, maybe not. For Navarre, it would be interesting to see for how long could it keep it's independence having two great Catholic enemies around (France and Spain).
 
It's possible that there would conflict over the regency of the young Charles X (or Henry III, after Charles' father). After all, while his mother would want it (supported by the Guise) Catherine de Medicis was still alive and wouldn't want to see the Guises having such influence. She might try to make Francis of Anjou the regent, in order to have power over the king.

Agreed.

Well, Anna Jagiellon was already over 50 when Henry went to Poland, so it's almost impossible to her have children. After Henry the throne would go to someone else, but his presence in Poland would butterfly away Stephen Bathory. Any idea of how would Henry's rule be in Poland?

Also, as IOTL Henry was killed in 1589, ITTL we can assume that he would have a much longer life. It would be interesting to see what happens if he survives Anna and remarry. Could he secure the throne for his own line, or the Vasas would still be the preferred option?
Ah yes, I misread her birth as 1543 not 23 :rolleyes:.

Looking up Henry it seems he was a bit too tactless politically and chafed under the Golden Liberty. I can see him getting kicked out by Parliament and replaced. Maybe Stephen Bathory still comes in to forestall Henry retaking his throne with his young nephew Charles X's support or Maximillian II also attempting. Hell Max II might get the upper hand simply to hold off the French. And if there is war we could see the Vasa's asserting their claim. It might even split Lithuania from Poland if they each choose different sides.

If Henry has heirs it will also impact the French succession as they'll have a claim on France and may abandon the PLC like Henry did OTL to get it.

Or it could all go roughly as OTL :D.



I'm not so sure about that. He could have annulled his marriage to Margaret IOTL at any time, but only did it after having secured the French throne for him. I don't know why he didn't do it before, maybe ITTL he might think different, maybe not. For Navarre, it would be interesting to see for how long could it keep it's independence having two great Catholic enemies around (France and Spain).

I certainly see large support from England and the Dutch to maintain Navarre as an independent Protestant enclave and if we have a similar 30 Years War then I can see it being a precondition in any treaty. Certainly neither France or Spain would want the other to have it.
 
Agreed.


Ah yes, I misread her birth as 1543 not 23 :rolleyes:.

Looking up Henry it seems he was a bit too tactless politically and chafed under the Golden Liberty. I can see him getting kicked out by Parliament and replaced. Maybe Stephen Bathory still comes in to forestall Henry retaking his throne with his young nephew Charles X's support or Maximillian II also attempting. Hell Max II might get the upper hand simply to hold off the French. And if there is war we could see the Vasa's asserting their claim. It might even split Lithuania from Poland if they each choose different sides.

If Henry has heirs it will also impact the French succession as they'll have a claim on France and may abandon the PLC like Henry did OTL to get it.

Or it could all go roughly as OTL :D.





I certainly see large support from England and the Dutch to maintain Navarre as an independent Protestant enclave and if we have a similar 30 Years War then I can see it being a precondition in any treaty. Certainly neither France or Spain would want the other to have it.
If that is so Navarre will be the center of Catalan and Basque culture in the present.
 
I certainly see large support from England and the Dutch to maintain Navarre as an independent Protestant enclave and if we have a similar 30 Years War then I can see it being a precondition in any treaty. Certainly neither France or Spain would want the other to have it.

I'm not so sure about that. Charles X would be half Habsburg, and his Habsburg mother would have a lot of influence over him. If she (with Guise help) gains the upper hand over his regency we might see a more powerful Catholic League, that had Spanish support. Spain had already taken their part of Navarre, they probably wouldn't mind if that tiny territory beyond the Pyrenees falls fully into Frech hand, even more if would mean that there would be no heretic Calvinist on the other side of their border.
 
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