The Valois and Bourbons become extinct while the Dreux survive

The Avenger

Banned
Also, interestingly enough, the Valois narrowly escaped extinction with the birth of Francis I in 1494. Had he been born a girl instead and had his father had no more children (his father died a little more than a year after his birth), the House of Valois could have become extinct in 1525. If Louis XII still dies in 1515 without any surviving sons, and Charles IV of Alencon still dies in 1525 without having any sons, then the House of Valois would become extinct in the male line in 1525.
 
AFAIK, though, is rights to the succession weren't eliminated--at least not until he engaged in treason.
Which is besides the point, tough, which was Dreux aren't certain to hold Brittany without a butterfly net, which would eventually remove them from the equation at term (a branch in deserence isn't likely to survive dynastically much long : the fortune of Bourbons was to have a lot of sub-branches that could be landed)

Statistically speaking, though, most French royal branches died out.
Yes, as most dynastic branch died out with time. There's nothing particularily relevant about it, apart stressing entropy is a thing.
What I tried to point, was that there was nothing specific about the historical extinction of the various Valois branches, especially the death of the three sons of Henri II. You need that to happen nevertheless, and that's okay : but as you said yourself, we need to ignore butterfly to make it sure. Remember that "if we kill enough people to fill a mausoleum" works, so does the contrary.

OK. However, given that he was likely born in either the late 1300s or very early 1400s, he probably died before the 1400s were over.
Certainly, just pointing that the house was small enough that we don't have any clear date on its reattribution.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Which is besides the point, tough, which was Dreux isn't certain to hold Brittany without a butterfly net.

OK, but that shouldn't matter as long as they retain their succession rights to the French throne.

Yes, as most dynastic branch died out with time. There's nothing particularily relevant about it, apart stressing entropy is a thing.
What I tried to point, was that there was nothing specific about the historical extinction of the various Valois branches, especially the death of the three sons of Henri II. You need that to happen nevertheless, and that's okay : but as you said yourself, we need to ignore butterfly to make it sure. Remember that "if we kill enough people to fill a mausoleum" works, so does the contrary.

Oh, sure, Henri II could have some sons in this TL who will have surviving male children of their own. However, their branches can die off later on as well.

All that matters is that the Dreux outlast the Valois--though the longer that the Valois and Dreux both survive, the larger the male-line genealogical distance between the two of them is going to be.

Certainly, just pointing that the house was small enough that we don't have any clear date on its reattribution.

OK.
 
OK, but that shouldn't matter as long as they retain their succession rights to the French throne.
I don't know much houses that either survived the complete loss of their holdings, or didn't fall into obscurity, tough. At this point, French kings were easily trigger-happy about who ruled in Brittany and at the first opportunity to take it, they would try. Doesn't mean that Dreux will be crippled out of the succession, but they're more at a political risk that branches as Bourbon-Foix were.
 

The Avenger

Banned
I don't know much houses that either survived the complete loss of their holdings, or didn't fall into obscurity, tough. At this point, French kings were easily trigger-happy about who ruled in Brittany and at the first opportunity to take it, they would try. Doesn't mean that Dreux will be crippled out of the succession, but they're more at a political risk that branches as Bourbon-Foix were.
Were the Dreux more of a political risk because they ruled Brittany?

Also, if the Dreux were smart and they nevertheless ended up losing Brittany, they would suck it up, make nice with the Valois, and quietly wait for their extinction.
 
Were the Dreux more of a political risk because they ruled Brittany?
Essentially : Brittany was one of the few principalities within the realm that had enough resources to really represent a strategical/political issue for French kings.

Also, if the Dreux were smart and they nevertheless ended up losing Brittany, they would suck it up, make nice with the Valois, and quietly wait for their extinction.
It doesn't exactly work like this : either they remain practical hostages to the king, which would have the upper hand on dynastical management, or they become exiles without much hope of being really politically relevant. Look at how Charles III de Bourbon was unable to remarry as an exile in this case.
Now, yes, it doesn't mean that if they loose Brittany, they'll be toasted : but their claims and dynastical survival would certainly be at risk without a "territorial" retreat possibility. ITTL, I'd suggest you to have them a matrimonial alliance allowing them holding elsewhere within the realm.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Essentially : Brittany was one of the few principalities within the realm that had enough resources to really represent a strategical/political issue for French kings.

Understood.

It doesn't exactly work like this : either they remain practical hostages to the king, which would have the upper hand on dynastical management, or they become exiles without much hope of being really politically relevant. Look at how Charles III de Bourbon was unable to remarry as an exile in this case.

Did Charles III actually try to remarry in exile, though?

Also, why was the Bourbon-Vendome branch OK with not having a large role in government?

Now, yes, it doesn't mean that if they loose Brittany, they'll be toasted : but their claims and dynastical survival would certainly be at risk without a "territorial" retreat possibility. ITTL, I'd suggest you to have them a matrimonial alliance allowing them holding elsewhere within the realm.

OK.

Also, how did the Bourbon-Vendome branch survive and thrive in spite of its lack of influence?
 
If there is no Francis I, Claude marries to the Duke of Alencon and Renee marries the possible son of the constable or the constable himself..
 
Did Charles III actually try to remarry in exile, though?
He did : Charles Quint vaguely promised to allow a marriage with his sister, which of course never happened.

Also, why was the Bourbon-Vendome branch OK with not having a large role in government?
Bourbon-Vendôme was essentially known for its military service, and Charles de Bourbon-Vendôme was awarded a ducal-peerage title out of it which is not unsignificant. So I'd guess they, by familial tradition, preferred this to administrative service. And eventually, late Valois familial relations with Bourbons were relatively limited : on some respects, Guise (for exemple) were closer and more familiar with the court.

Also, how did the Bourbon-Vendome branch survive and thrive in spite of its lack of influence?
Well, I'd say partially because of this : they weren't important enough to have them being rooted out (except, of course, during the Wars of Religion), but beneficing from enough wealth and political credibility to thrive locally with uniting themselves with houses of similar standing.
At this moment, Gascon houses are relatively peripheral after all, but Bourbon-Vendôme didn't lacked influence, it wasn't just a major influence before they became a credible candidate for royal succession.
 

The Avenger

Banned
He did : Charles Quint vaguely promised to allow a marriage with his sister, which of course never happened.

The Constable should have asked for a more explicit promise, then.

Also, couldn't the Constable have married some other woman?

Bourbon-Vendôme was essentially known for its military service, and Charles de Bourbon-Vendôme was awarded a ducal-peerage title out of it which is not unsignificant. So I'd guess they, by familial tradition, preferred this to administrative service. And eventually, late Valois familial relations with Bourbons were relatively limited : on some respects, Guise (for exemple) were closer and more familiar with the court.

OK.

Well, I'd say partially because of this : they weren't important enough to have them being rooted out (except, of course, during the Wars of Religion), but beneficing from enough wealth and political credibility to thrive locally with uniting themselves with houses of similar standing.

Houses such as d'Albret and La Tremoille?

At this moment, Gascon houses are relatively peripheral after all, but Bourbon-Vendôme didn't lacked influence, it wasn't just a major influence before they became a credible candidate for royal succession.

Gascon houses such as?

Also, understood about the Bourbon-Vendome.

In addition, off-topic, but Charles III, Duke of Bourbon only got stripped of his lands because Francis I's mother could claim a genealogical relation to a previous Duke of Bourbon, no? If so, could a similar genealogical relation have been found to strip the Duchy of Brittany from a surviving House of Dreux in this TL?
 
The Constable should have asked for a more explicit promise, then.
Exiles without land or perspectives can't be choosers.

Also, couldn't the Constable have married some other woman?
Technically, he could have. But again, exile without hope of return and unfit ambitions are a bad mix.

Houses such as d'Albret and La Tremoille?
Yes.

Gascon houses such as?
Foix and Albret, essentially.

In addition, off-topic, but Charles III, Duke of Bourbon only got stripped of his lands because Francis I's mother could claim a genealogical relation to a previous Duke of Bourbon, no?
The Parliament of Paris decided that Suzanne de Bourbon was the tenent of the titles and lands, of her father, which Charles more or less took on himself due to being descendant of Jean I.
Eventually, Louise de Savoie clamied these due to being the grand-daughter of Charles I, and the main reason why the Parliament agreed with her was because the king willed it so, while his mother's rights weren't really that strong.

If so, could a similar genealogical relation have been found to strip the Duchy of Brittany from a surviving House of Dreux in this TL?
Brittany still going to be a geostrategical matter ITTL, it's likely you'd have dynastical ties between Valois and Dreux IMO. But altough these might possibly not be enough legally for a captation, it's not like Valois didn't know how to shenanigan their way with dubious claims or debatable legal points.
Again, nothing certain, but a risk to keep in mind.
 
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