The Valois and Bourbons become extinct while the Dreux survive

The Avenger

Banned
I wanted to spice things up and thus came up with this scenario:

John of Bourbon, Count of Vendome (this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_VIII,_Count_of_Vendôme ; he's the male-line great-great-grandfather of French King Henry IV) dies before he is able to have a son. As a result, the Bourbon-Vendome line (which succeeded to the French throne in 1589 in our TL) becomes extinct. Ignoring butterflies, the senior line of the House of Bourbon (the Dukes of Bourbon) will become extinct in 1527 while the cadet branch of Bourbon-Duisant will become extinct in 1530. In 1530, the House of Bourbon is completely extinct in the male line.

Again, ignoring butterflies, the House of Valois becomes extinct in the late 16th century. Of course, we can move up the date of their extinction to the 17th century due to butterflies, if you like.

Here's the fun part, though: Francis II, Duke of Brittany (this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_II,_Duke_of_Brittany ; he's from the House of Dreux, which is a cadet branch of the Capetians) has a surviving son in this TL. This surviving son ensures the continuation of the House of Dreux and ensures that they would be the senior Capetian branch upon the extinction of the House of Valois.

Now, in either the late 16th or 17th centuries, the House of Valois becomes extinct. Now, the question is--does the House of Dreux have what it takes to succeed to the French throne?

Please note that Henry IV of France (from the Bourbon-Vendome branch, in our TL) was a tenth-generation male-line (agnatic) descendant of French King Louis IX. In contrast, the House of Dreux are male-line descendants of French King Louis VI, who reigned 1.5 centuries before Louis IX. Thus, instead of 10 generations separating a claimant from a French King, we're going to be talking about 15 or more generations here. Would the Valois be willing to recognize their 15+th cousins as their successors upon their extinction in the male line in this TL?

Thoughts?
 

The Avenger

Banned
I've also flirted with having the House of Courtenay survive, but it is uncertain whether the late Courtenays were actually Capetians:

http://xtt-tau.pagesperso-orange.fr/josilonus/htm/courtenay.htm

I mean, the late Courtenays (as opposed to the early Couternays, who were indisputably male-line Capetians) claimed to be Capetians, but the article above (in French, unfortunately) raises some doubts about this (in other words: they could have been lying). In contrast, there do not appear to be any doubts as to the Capetian male-line ancestry of the House of Dreux.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
@The Avenger
Thank you for answering my question "who if not Bourbon after Valois" - I've never found an answer to it.

@kasumigenx
Who are the Evreux and why did they not ascend to the throne instead of the Bourbons?
 
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Who are the Evreux and why did they not ascend to the throne instead of the Bourbons?
They descend from Philippe III's son by second marriage Louis Count of Evreux and inherited Navarre, eventually becoming extinct in the male line a generation or two before the Bourbons married into Navarre.
The Bourbons descend from Philippe's brother Robert Count of Clermont becoming Dukes of Bourbon.
 
Now, the question is--does the House of Dreux have what it takes to succeed to the French throne?

Please note that Henry IV of France (from the Bourbon-Vendome branch, in our TL) was a tenth-generation male-line (agnatic) descendant of French King Louis IX. In contrast, the House of Dreux are male-line descendants of French King Louis VI, who reigned 1.5 centuries before Louis IX. Thus, instead of 10 generations separating a claimant from a French King, we're going to be talking about 15 or more generations here. Would the Valois be willing to recognize their 15+th cousins as their successors upon their extinction in the male line in this TL?

Wasn't a big part of why Henri was rejected more because of the fact that he was Protestant than because he was so distantly related? I mean, the Lorraines claimed descent from Charlemagne, which would make them even more distantly related. So, I think as long as the Dreux line are Catholic, they'd probably find the backing to end up kings of France.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Evreux of Navarre are senior to Bourbons.
They became extinct in the early 1400s, though.

Wasn't a big part of why Henri was rejected more because of the fact that he was Protestant than because he was so distantly related?

That was a part of it, but the distant relation issue never completely went away:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Succession_of_Henry_IV_of_France

"The legitimacy of Henry of Navarre's claim to the throne was still questioned, however. In similar cases in the past, the throne had passed to successors with a much closer blood link to the throne. Louis XII had succeeded Charles VIII as his second cousin once removed in the male line. Francis I had succeeded Louis XII as his cousin five times removed in the male line. These successions were legally unproblematic because consanguinity was acknowledged in law to the tenth degree. Henry of Navarre, on the other hand, could only claim an agnatic relationship to Henry III in the twenty-second degree.[2] When Henry had become the heir presumptive to the throne in 1584, on the death of Francis, Duke of Anjou, polemicist Jean Boucher had been among those who protested that such a distance in blood meant Henry's claim to the throne had effectively lapsed and that therefore the French States-General had the right to elect a new king."

I mean, the Lorraines claimed descent from Charlemagne, which would make them even more distantly related.

Are you talking about the House of Guise here? If so, they were usurpers!

So, I think as long as the Dreux line are Catholic, they'd probably find the backing to end up kings of France.

OK.

Also, what kinds of Kings would the Dreux be? Would they be as absolutist as the Bourbons were? Also, would they try moving the French capital to Brittany?
 
I've also flirted with having the House of Courtenay survive, but it is uncertain whether the late Courtenays were actually Capetians:

http://xtt-tau.pagesperso-orange.fr/josilonus/htm/courtenay.htm

I mean, the late Courtenays (as opposed to the early Couternays, who were indisputably male-line Capetians) claimed to be Capetians, but the article above (in French, unfortunately) raises some doubts about this (in other words: they could have been lying). In contrast, there do not appear to be any doubts as to the Capetian male-line ancestry of the House of Dreux.
So what was the doubt?
 

The Avenger

Banned
So what was the doubt?
Here is the relevant article:

http://xtt-tau.pagesperso-orange.fr/josilonus/htm/courtenay_genealogie.htm

And here is the French Wikipedia article for this house with an extensive geneological tree:

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maison_capétienne_de_Courtenay

As far as I understand the article (above, the first one in this post) based on Google Translate, there is no doubt that all Courtenays up to Jean IV (1410-1472--you can see him in the second link) were descended from the Capetians in the male line. In contrast, there is doubt that the Courtenays who came after 1472 were of Capetians descent--especially in the male line. In the first article, the author speculates that instead of being descended from Jean II (1291-1334), the later Courtenays are actually descended from the brother of Jean II's wife--Jean de Saint-Vérain (brother of Marguerite de Saint-Vérain). Thus, as far as I understand it, the later Courtenays might have actually been of Saint-Verain descent in the male line and might have faked their Capetian ancestry--especially in the male line.

Anyway, please take a look at these links for yourself--using Google Translate for the first one, unless you can read French--if you want. Indeed, let's see if I made any errors in understanding what is written in the first article here.
 
Louis XIV didn't forbidden the publication of their genealogy (probably because he couldn't care less) which makes me think that their claims to an ancestral link with Capetian might, while not taken seriously, not have been taken as an outright fraud either.

The problems with later Courtenay was eventually less doubt on their genealogy, that they were very small lords, that descended at best from a shaky line without having being considered princes, and having no real right claiming it at this point. Even if their genealogies could be reliable, there were far too "diluted" and removed from the main branch.
 

The Avenger

Banned
The problems with later Courtenay was eventually less doubt on their genealogy, that they were very small lords, that descended at best from a shaky line without having being considered princes, and having no real right claiming it at this point. Even if their genealogies could be reliable, there were far too "diluted" to be taken seriously.
As I read this article, both of these things were issues. There was uncertainty about their genealogy after 1472 and they became minor, impoverished nobles over the centuries.

Now, would this have also applied to the Dreux? Or would their rule over Brittany have been enough to make them serious contenders for the French throne in the event of the extinction of all of the more senior Capetian branches?
 
*Now, would this have also applied to the Dreux? Or would their rule over Brittany have been enough to make them serious contenders for the French throne in the event of the extinction of all of the more senior Capetian branches?
The branch of Dreux that survived wasn't the branch that ruled over Brittany, and this branch died out in the XVth century, and replaced by another smaller branch. They don't really have a chance for succession IMO.
No, at this point the Capetian dynasty is ended safe to folkloric branches nobody cares about.
 
The branch of Dreux that survived wasn't the branch that ruled over Brittany, and this branch died out in the XVth century, and replaced by another smaller branch. They don't really have a chance for succession IMO.
No, at this point the Capetian dynasty is ended safe to folkloric branches nobody cares about.
So what happens then?Succession through female descent or royal election?
 

The Avenger

Banned
The branch of Dreux that survived wasn't the branch that ruled over Brittany, and this branch died out in the XVth century,

It says here that Francis II of the House of Dreux-Monfort was Duke of Brittany until his death in 1488:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_II,_Duke_of_Brittany

Did the Duke of Brittany not rule over Brittany?

Also, if you'll read my OP here, you'll see that, in this TL, Francis II has a surviving son and thus this branch of the House of Dreux survives long enough to see the extinction of both the Valois and the Bourbons.

and replaced by another smaller branch. They don't really have a chance for succession IMO.

Which smaller branch are you talking about here?

No, at this point the Capetian dynasty is ended safe to folkloric branches nobody cares about.

Duke of Brittany is not a sufficiently prominent position to become King of France? It seems as prominent as, say, Duke of Vendome--if not even more so!
 
Also, if you'll read my OP here, you'll see that, in this TL, Francis II has a surviving son and thus this branch of the House of Dreux survives long enough to see the extinction of both the Valois and the Bourbons.
Missed that, giving you pointed that butterfly net was in full effect.
Assuming the branch survives and that it still holds Brittany, if Valois don't pull the same trick they did on Bourbons which giving the context is likely, they could indeed (or, if not holding Brittany, at least some significant estate). But again, it's with a butterfly net the size of the Great Wall.

Which smaller branch are you talking about here?
The historical sub-branch of Machecoul.

@darthfanta
In case of a Dreux failure at some point, I suspect that a bastard house might get a chance, such as Bourbon-Busset. A chance,not a given.
 
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The Avenger

Banned
Missed that, giving you pointed that butterfly net was in full effect.
Assuming the branch survives and that it still holds Brittany, if Valois don't pull the same trick they did on Bourbons which giving the context is likely, they could indeed (or, if not holding Brittany, at least some significant estate).

What trick did the Valois pull on the Bourbons?

But again, it's with a butterfly net the size of the Great Wall.

Sure, but the Valois could still eventually die out in the male line--in this TL, before the Dreux would.

The historical sub-branch of Machecoul.

If I'm reading this correctly, the House of Machecoul became extinct in the male line after 1434--probably in the mid-15th century, correct? :

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancienne_noblesse_de_Machecoul

Louis II of Machecoul looks like the last male-line Machecoul.
 
What trick did the Valois pull on the Bourbons?
Basically confiscating the Charles III de Bourbon's estates.

Sure, but the Valois could still eventually die out in the male line before the Dreux would.
They could, but there's nothing particularly likely dying them out as they did IOTL, or not creating other sub-branches. This is why you need a butterfly net.

If I'm reading this correctly, the House of Machecoul became extinct in the male line after 1434--probably in the mid-15th century, correct? :
I didn't find a year for the death (or birth) for Jean de Machecoul, son of Eustache, and lord of Velluire. Giving he was younger than Louis II, there's kind of a possibility he outlived him a bit.
The name was taken by a sub-branch from women at this point, which wasn't cause enough for breaking the line, but certainly was for royal consideration even if Machecoul weren't minor lords, which explain the discrepancy.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Basically confiscating the Charles III de Bourbon's estates.

AFAIK, though, is rights to the succession weren't eliminated--at least not until he engaged in treason.

They could, but there's nothing particularly likely dying them out as they did IOTL, or not creating other sub-branches. This is why you need a butterfly net.

Statistically speaking, though, most French royal branches died out. Thus, the odds would be against the Valois--and against the Dreux, for that matter. I'm thinking of the Valois becoming extinct in the male line first, though.

I didn't find a year for the death (or birth) for Jean de Machecoul, son of Eustache, and lord of Velluire. Giving he was younger than Louis II, there's kind of a possibility he outlived him a bit.

OK. However, given that he was likely born in either the late 1300s or very early 1400s, he probably died before the 1400s were over.

The name was taken by a sub-branch from women at this point, which wasn't cause enough for breaking the line, but certainly was for royal consideration even if Machecoul weren't minor lords, which explain the discrepancy.

Yes, I know. I saw the family tree for them on the French Wikipedia. That said, though, as you said, only male agnates of Hugh Capet could inherit the French throne.
 
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