The vagaries of wind and weather; Roanoke.

As I understand it the first 75 colonists in Virginia were planted in August 1585 and were promised a supply convoy in April 1586. No supply convoy had arrived when Francis Drake appeared in June 1586 on his way home from a Carribean raid, so Drake took the colonists home. Days after Drake took the colonists the supply convoy arrived at Roanoke to find that the people had left, so they left too, unsurprisingly. Then in July 1587 a second group of 117 were sent to Roanoke, these became the Lost Colony.

So WI, due to the vagaries of wind and weather, the supply convoy arrived at Roanoke days or weeks before Drake? The colonists would have faith that the backers of the colony hadn't forgotten them, even if June isn't April the promised supplies did arrive. Furthermore Drake's surprise arrival would fortify both the colonists themselves, knowing that the navy could come calling, and the colony's backers, because one of the colony's rationales was as a privateering base.

Could the original 75 colonists stick it out for another year if resupplied and then visited by Drake? Would adding another 117 colonists to make the numbers up to 180-190 give the colony critical mass which the initial groups of 75 and 117, planted 2 years apart, lacked?
 
Perhaps, but the early colony had serious problems anyway in the way that it got caught up in tribal politics in an era where it wasn't really strong enough to be the deciding factor. The colonists ended up essentially settling on land that the natives didn't want to give them and existed solely because one or two incidents occurred which helped them to survive - early on they managed to win the support of a chieftain's councilor, and then later on they stayed alive because of a freak coincidence (I really can't remember what) which was interpreted by the tribesmen as a sign of divine will that they shouldn't attack the colonists. All during this time, however, they were thoroughly alienating the tribe on whose land they were living. One of the major problems was that they were constantly having to buy food with money they didn't have (the tribes actually gave it them largely for free, but built up resentment because of this and lost their winter excess keeping the colonists alive). The supply convoy arriving would solve this issue for a while but probably not permanently - they still had no land of their own and still had no real crops to begin becoming self-sufficient...but then if that had arrived, the second convoy of colonists would have been sent which would have doubled their numbers and just created further problems for the natives who already thought there were too many of them. Really it was only a matter of time until they were attacked and massacred, as happened in 1586 (?) with the "Croatoa" mystery.

For the colony to properly survive, far better would be for it to relocate. The colonists tried to inspire a European-style system of homage and vassalage with the natives but really they proved inept at befriending them. The longer they stayed put, the closer they got to their destruction, and a supply convoy and another fleet of colonists will not help.
 

perfectgeneral

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Let us suppose that the second load of colonists persuade the 75 to move with them to a great spot up the coast that they noticed while searching for the colony. Pick somewhere more viable (Kecoughtan, Hampton? Sewell's Point, Norfolk?). The area of north of Norfolk seems ideal. Remote from the rest of the mainland, but cultivable and easily approached from the sea.

Hampton_Roads_1859.jpg


Far enough away from First Americans to live peacefully?
 
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Were there any expeditions to scout for new positions for their colony? I have a vague memory that someone did some scouting, but that may have been in the Jamestown days.
 
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