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So, let's take the typical (and IMO best) POD for a Union victory. The lost order isn't lost, and the CSA wins at *Antietam. The CSA gets Kentucky, Virginia, and Oklahoma, but not Arizona, New Mexico, or West Virignia. [1]

But overtime, IMO economics would only favor the USA more and more, as industrialization proceeds apace. Even if you accept Jared's argument that the CSA would be able to industrialize, it will never be on the scale of the USA.

But, how would the USA view the South? Turtledove posited a USA and CSA that are unremittingly hostile. I think this is quite possible, but I'm not sure how it would go. Would the USA want to reannex the CSA and incorporate the states into the Union? Or would it let it go, just as the USA no longer has a desire to annex Canada and nobody in Victorian Britain wanted to conquer the CSA?

I suspect how race relations in the USA end up will play a role in this. But I am picturing Teddy Roosevelt given the chance to reannex the CSA. And I feel like United States Presidents would want to do so for decades.

[1] Actually, it's never really clear to me why the Confederates get Kentucky in your standard Southern victory. The place was certainly more union than Confederate, and occupied by the Union army. So...
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