boredatwork
Banned
No it is not ... Cuba at this time is a strong ally of Nicaragua. If Cuba had the will to send Thousands of troops over to Angola, then why not help a fellow Socialist nation invade a country with NO DEFENCE FORCE ! ... yes Costa Rica has no Army on its way to Panama. Maybe do some reaserch before screaming ASB.
You also might try some research - how are those troops going to get to Nicaragua? What are they going to use to get from embarkation to the CR border? Does anyone believe the US would ignore such a buildup -during a Republican administration, during the cold war no less?
Furthermore, anyone with access to a Map will notice that invading CR is merely a preliminary to trying to cut the canal, which isn't going to be allowed. Also, do bear in mind at the time that Nicaragua was still having a hard time putting down the contras, much less galivanting around playing Napoleon.
Try again.Lets see. According to the 1989 World Defence Almanac PP 211 (And confirmed with Janes All the World Armies 1989) China has the following landing assets
6 Yukan LST
15 other LST
20 Yudao/Yulin LSM
Some 150 LCM's
Some 300 LCU
And the following Transport Aircraft
250 Y-5 (An-2)
10 Y-7 (AN-24)
25 Y-8 (AN-12)
100 Ex Soviet Li-2
and 3 Airborne divisions
And this is not including the huge number of RO-RO Transports that they have .... bit more than a fishing fleet. No match for the USN but their Navy can take on Taiwan's Navy. Again , how about doing your homework before invoking ASB.
1. The US isn't going to allow them to cross the straits - and they had multi-ocean fleets for a reason. Short of using Nukes, China can't clear that obstacle. If they use Nukes, we're back to everyone dies.
2. You need massive preponderance of force to succeed in an amphibious assault - what you've listed doesn't hit that level. When citing those numbers you need to take into account: combat losses from taiwanese forces, and maintenance issues inherent to chinese forces of the period.
3. Taiwan isn't Iceland - the had active defense forces of their own, including (at the time) a more modern air and naval wing than the Chinese. If 10 craft head out to the island, 3 might make it, at which point, local forces will be able to handle them.
4. The Chinese leadership of the time could do that math just as well as I could. Why expend the nucleus of your naval & amphibious capability in a futile effort which will merely reduce your chances of achieving your goals down the road?
Without outside help SK would find it hard. If the US is unable or unwilling to help because of commitments elseware, then SK may loose a lot of land before NK is stopped.
B
What outside help? The US had thousands of troops on the ground in SK for the entire cold war period. Heck, we still do today. Baring months, if not years of prep time, they're not going away, and neither are they going to sit around. Remember the tripwire - google it if you like. NK invasion = dead US troops = tripwire activated. NK Loses, either immediately, or more likely in a few days as the mushrooms pop up over the northern half of the peninsula. In which case, there is no longer and NK to speak of, and SK now owns the entire peninsula, large parts of which are now chernobyl-style no-go-zones.
Furthermore, each individual attack raises global tension and readiness levels, making the additional actions harder to accomplish. Unless every single attack is perfectly coordinated (unlikely on oh so many levels) and is completely unexpected (again, unlikely) each attack is going to run straight into prepared defenses. And then we hit the math of combat, which favors defense.
On top of all this, the attacks are taking place when the US & Allied forces are at their relative peaks - benefiting from the defense boom of the 80's, and not yet cut for the peace dividend of the 90s.
Try a modified version of this in 1998, and the chances of success (and with them, the chances that the effort would be made in the first place) go up dramatically.
The most likely outcome of the current scenario is multiple tactical/theater nuclear strikes, massive pointless carnage, and the probable fall of several of the involved governments in coups &/or internal rebellions as the scale of the mess becomes obvious.
The USSR & Buddies won't conquer the world, nor will there be some newer and better Pax America. Best case - a hundred million or so dead, and a new great depression.