The US fighting a multi-front war in 1988

boredatwork

Banned
No it is not ... Cuba at this time is a strong ally of Nicaragua. If Cuba had the will to send Thousands of troops over to Angola, then why not help a fellow Socialist nation invade a country with NO DEFENCE FORCE ! ... yes Costa Rica has no Army on its way to Panama. Maybe do some reaserch before screaming ASB.

You also might try some research - how are those troops going to get to Nicaragua? What are they going to use to get from embarkation to the CR border? Does anyone believe the US would ignore such a buildup -during a Republican administration, during the cold war no less?

Furthermore, anyone with access to a Map will notice that invading CR is merely a preliminary to trying to cut the canal, which isn't going to be allowed. Also, do bear in mind at the time that Nicaragua was still having a hard time putting down the contras, much less galivanting around playing Napoleon.

Lets see. According to the 1989 World Defence Almanac PP 211 (And confirmed with Janes All the World Armies 1989) China has the following landing assets

6 Yukan LST
15 other LST
20 Yudao/Yulin LSM
Some 150 LCM's
Some 300 LCU

And the following Transport Aircraft
250 Y-5 (An-2)
10 Y-7 (AN-24)
25 Y-8 (AN-12)
100 Ex Soviet Li-2

and 3 Airborne divisions

And this is not including the huge number of RO-RO Transports that they have .... bit more than a fishing fleet. No match for the USN but their Navy can take on Taiwan's Navy. Again , how about doing your homework before invoking ASB.
Try again.
1. The US isn't going to allow them to cross the straits - and they had multi-ocean fleets for a reason. Short of using Nukes, China can't clear that obstacle. If they use Nukes, we're back to everyone dies.

2. You need massive preponderance of force to succeed in an amphibious assault - what you've listed doesn't hit that level. When citing those numbers you need to take into account: combat losses from taiwanese forces, and maintenance issues inherent to chinese forces of the period.

3. Taiwan isn't Iceland - the had active defense forces of their own, including (at the time) a more modern air and naval wing than the Chinese. If 10 craft head out to the island, 3 might make it, at which point, local forces will be able to handle them.

4. The Chinese leadership of the time could do that math just as well as I could. Why expend the nucleus of your naval & amphibious capability in a futile effort which will merely reduce your chances of achieving your goals down the road?

Without outside help SK would find it hard. If the US is unable or unwilling to help because of commitments elseware, then SK may loose a lot of land before NK is stopped.
B

What outside help? The US had thousands of troops on the ground in SK for the entire cold war period. Heck, we still do today. Baring months, if not years of prep time, they're not going away, and neither are they going to sit around. Remember the tripwire - google it if you like. NK invasion = dead US troops = tripwire activated. NK Loses, either immediately, or more likely in a few days as the mushrooms pop up over the northern half of the peninsula. In which case, there is no longer and NK to speak of, and SK now owns the entire peninsula, large parts of which are now chernobyl-style no-go-zones.

Furthermore, each individual attack raises global tension and readiness levels, making the additional actions harder to accomplish. Unless every single attack is perfectly coordinated (unlikely on oh so many levels) and is completely unexpected (again, unlikely) each attack is going to run straight into prepared defenses. And then we hit the math of combat, which favors defense.

On top of all this, the attacks are taking place when the US & Allied forces are at their relative peaks - benefiting from the defense boom of the 80's, and not yet cut for the peace dividend of the 90s.

Try a modified version of this in 1998, and the chances of success (and with them, the chances that the effort would be made in the first place) go up dramatically.

The most likely outcome of the current scenario is multiple tactical/theater nuclear strikes, massive pointless carnage, and the probable fall of several of the involved governments in coups &/or internal rebellions as the scale of the mess becomes obvious.

The USSR & Buddies won't conquer the world, nor will there be some newer and better Pax America. Best case - a hundred million or so dead, and a new great depression.
 

backstab

Banned
You also might try some research - how are those troops going to get to Nicaragua? What are they going to use to get from embarkation to the CR border? Does anyone believe the US would ignore such a buildup -during a Republican administration, during the cold war no less?

Furthermore, anyone with access to a Map will notice that invading CR is merely a preliminary to trying to cut the canal, which isn't going to be allowed. Also, do bear in mind at the time that Nicaragua was still having a hard time putting down the contras, much less galivanting around playing Napoleon.

If the US is fighting in Europe , will they even take notice of what Cuba and Nicaragua are doing ?




Try again.
1. The US isn't going to allow them to cross the straits - and they had multi-ocean fleets for a reason. Short of using Nukes, China can't clear that obstacle. If they use Nukes, we're back to everyone dies.

2. You need massive preponderance of force to succeed in an amphibious assault - what you've listed doesn't hit that level. When citing those numbers you need to take into account: combat losses from taiwanese forces, and maintenance issues inherent to chinese forces of the period.

3. Taiwan isn't Iceland - the had active defense forces of their own, including (at the time) a more modern air and naval wing than the Chinese. If 10 craft head out to the island, 3 might make it, at which point, local forces will be able to handle them.

4. The Chinese leadership of the time could do that math just as well as I could. Why expend the nucleus of your naval & amphibious capability in a futile effort which will merely reduce your chances of achieving your goals down the road?

If the US is engaged in Korea and Russian naval forces from the Far Eastern MD , what happens if they don't have the ships to spare ??? The Taiwanese Navy at this time is pretty crat (14 ex US Gearing Destroyers plus other ex ww2/'50 ships) so that puts them not that far ahead of the PRC... for christ sakes the Chinese have 84 Romeo class Subs, not much use against the US but more than enough for the Taiwanese. There Airforce is not much chop either (F-5's and F104's)

I'll get to the other stuff later ....
 
In such a scenario how would CONUS fare? I imagine that there would be few qualms about sending attack aircraft into USSR border regions. Would the USSR send a few Tu22/AS4 strikes against US naval bases in Washington state or Conneticut, or maybe cruise missiles against coastal or near coastal targets?
 
If the US is engaged in Korea and Russian naval forces from the Far Eastern MD , what happens if they don't have the ships to spare ??? The Taiwanese Navy at this time is pretty crat (14 ex US Gearing Destroyers plus other ex ww2/'50 ships) so that puts them not that far ahead of the PRC... for christ sakes the Chinese have 84 Romeo class Subs, not much use against the US but more than enough for the Taiwanese. There Airforce is not much chop either (F-5's and F104's)

I'll get to the other stuff later ....

The Gearings had been updated with a good number of modern weapons, including SSMs and ASROC. Certainly, even one or 2 slipping past to hit the transports would wipe out entire divisions. That is, of course, if China could get those divisions on the water, which they can't. The proper landing ships you listed previously combined can't quite move a single armored regiment in one trip, assuming they were all functional, whiich is questionable considering some of them were U.S. WWII surplus transfered to the nationalists and then captured by the communists. The rest are just landing boats that would sink in anything but absolutely calm weather without proper transports to carry them, of which China has none, at all. Oh maybe some can be cobbled together quickly from ordinary freighters, but it'll take months of training before the transfer process could be anything but a total disaster.
 

backstab

Banned
The Gearings had been updated with a good number of modern weapons, including SSMs and ASROC. Certainly, even one or 2 slipping past to hit the transports would wipe out entire divisions. That is, of course, if China could get those divisions on the water, which they can't. The proper landing ships you listed previously combined can't quite move a single armored regiment in one trip, assuming they were all functional, whiich is questionable considering some of them were U.S. WWII surplus transfered to the nationalists and then captured by the communists. The rest are just landing boats that would sink in anything but absolutely calm weather without proper transports to carry them, of which China has none, at all. Oh maybe some can be cobbled together quickly from ordinary freighters, but it'll take months of training before the transfer process could be anything but a total disaster.

What ? ... do you think that China would conduct some form of Amphib invasion without destroying the Taiwanese Navy first. China has enough Naval Air Assets , Land Based SSM's and light forces to do the job. Taiwan is not that far from mainland china (150km ????) and well with in range of China's Helicopter Fleet (They even have 24 Blackhawks) and Air Transports. China is well capable of conducting an Ampib Invasion combined with Airmobile and Airborne assaults. Once a port is captured, then its no trouble for China to use RO-RO transports to ferry in the heavy stuff. It would not be easy but iit aint ASB.
 
What ? ... do you think that China would conduct some form of Amphib invasion without destroying the Taiwanese Navy first. China has enough Naval Air Assets , Land Based SSM's and light forces to do the job. Taiwan is not that far from mainland china (150km ????) and well with in range of China's Helicopter Fleet (They even have 24 Blackhawks) and Air Transports. China is well capable of conducting an Ampib Invasion combined with Airmobile and Airborne assaults. Once a port is captured, then its no trouble for China to use RO-RO transports to ferry in the heavy stuff. It would not be easy but iit aint ASB.

So in other words, if Taiwan sends out its entire fleet without aircover and gets itself wiped out, then China has the immediate ability to land about 1 regiment of troops at a time by sea in reasonably good weather. With perfect weather and absolutely no resistance, this goes up to a short division. Presumably, the Taiwanese Airforce has also been wiped out, so air transports and helicopters, which of course have nothing to fear from SAM batteries or even MANPADs could add maybe another regiment's worth of light infantry. This would be enough to secure a beachhead and capture a port against the Taiwanese army of over 40 brigades including 5 of armor, so that China can ship in additional troops with converted civilian shipping.

No, it's not ASB. What it is, is several times more difficult than the Japanese campaign in Malaya, and without the advantage of incompetent and unprepared opponents.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Having been in the ammunition community and having also been lucky enough to have examined a lot of the Soviet equipment from that era and talked to more then a few soviet personnel I can say for sure that by 1988 the Red Army had seriously deteriorated, funding was being cut and maintenance was falling behind even more then it had been previously. They were in no shape to do much of anything big. Their last chance was realisticaly around 1980, 1981 maybe 1982. By that point our defense build up and the greatly increased training allowed had really put us way ahead. This continued right through the 80's. By 1988 I frankly think the US Army and military was at the best its been since 1944. We would win in Europe conventionally.

Taiwan has known for decades that if China ever thinks it can take them they will. The F-5 is a very good maneuverable fighter with a big edge on the Mig 21 that the Chinese at that time had, along with its chinese copies. The Taiwan Airforce is a very high quality group- very good pilots and very highly motivated. The Chinese military at that time was pretty poor as regards anything but human wave assaults. Their Air Force was not good as regards aircraft or pilots (training hours were limited). Their navy (I think its called the Peoples Army Navy=talk about stupid) was very last on the list as regards funding and priority. Taiwan orients its entire defense poster towards defending the island from Chinese attack. With such a focus they have a decided edge. There is frankly no way the Chinese can take Taiwan and they are not stupid to try anything unless they are very sure they will win.
 
Having been in the ammunition community and having also been lucky enough to have examined a lot of the Soviet equipment from that era and talked to more then a few soviet personnel I can say for sure that by 1988 the Red Army had seriously deteriorated, funding was being cut and maintenance was falling behind even more then it had been previously. They were in no shape to do much of anything big. Their last chance was realisticaly around 1980, 1981 maybe 1982. By that point our defense build up and the greatly increased training allowed had really put us way ahead. This continued right through the 80's. By 1988 I frankly think the US Army and military was at the best its been since 1944. We would win in Europe conventionally.

Which is why the Soviet Union would not fight conventionally in Europe.
 
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