The Unwanted Clairvoyant. A different French strategy in WW1
- Thread starter jeandebueil
- Start date
One possible alt-Spanish/American War: what if the US takes the northern Marianas, Caroline Islands, asmr Marshall Islands? Then Spain can't sell them to Germany to be conquered by Japan. Would Japan still join ww1 just for Tsingtau? Would Japan-US relations be better after ww1?
Guys, I can understand your interest for the Spanish-American War and, frankly, Ramonxto, I will surely look your work in the near future, but could you please not discuss this subject here. You could create a thread about this and I'm sure people (perhaps me included) will follow it
You don't have to be sorry, dear lad. See you next time and take care
Donald Reaver
Donor
You don't have to be sorry, dear lad. See you next time and take care
I hear that comment in Peter O'Toole's voice from the 1969 version of "Goodbye, Mr. Chips". Great movie.
Donald Reaver
Donor
Considering how many Entente troops are in Belgium, I find that highly unlikely.
Belgium isn't a member of the Entente legally speaking so isn't forced to respect the "no separate peace" agreement of September signed by Russia, UK and France. In fact Belgium officially considers itself more as a co-belligerant on the Entente side than a true ally as it remains a neutral nation defending its territorial integrity with the help of France and Great-Britain.
So technically, Belgium and Germany could sign a separate peace but Belgium would have three no-negotiable conditions:
-The absolute restoration of Belgian territorial integrity: Germany must renounce to any chunk of Belgian territory, colonies included.
-The payment of financial indemnities to Belgian governments, cities (like Leuven) and citizens.
-Very likely public apologies for the documented war crimes commited against Belgian citizens, again very likely leading to the demand of some trials against German soldiers and possibly officers.
The first condition could be accepted by Germany, the second could be a "why not?", the third enters the realm of unlikeliness to say the least.
But after discussing what's "legally possible", let's talk about reality, "de facto" things: Belgium has faced atrocities and is a real partner of the Entente, with an Army currently the size of the BEF and is determined to defend its independence. Second, France rushed to "save little Belgium", or at least it's how it's depicted in the press and partially did, even retaking Belgian capital and contributing to Antwerp and Namur's relief in the process. The southern neighbour is seen as the nice and trusty one while Germany "drowned children and women". It would be morally hard for the Belgian government to say "thanks for the help but could leave and fight this war without us?".
Third, even if Belgium becomes neutral again, it would then become the very example of a very but very benevolent neutral country towards the Entente. Full cooperation for the Blockade, de facto end of any economic relationship with Germany for the rest of the war, full economic cooperation with the Entente (in fact Belgium could even used its restored industrial power to help the Entente by producing non-military products like uniforms, steel, coal and possibly silently some weapons). In the meantime, the Belgian Army would remain mobilized and posssibly expand, sitting on the German border with an attitude like "just try this time, we're ready for round two".
Next to this would be the Entente attitude towards this. Actually on a military pov, it would good for them. Britain would remain at war but would send its entire and growing BEF in Moselle, same things for the French Armies in Belgium. Sure the German front is shortened but so is the Entente one and then they will have only ONE objective: to launch everything against Metz and Thionville: think about Verdun and the Somme combined: even a bloody stalemate like these two battles would mean that Britain and France would retake Longwy and Briey while being barely a few kilometres away from the German iron mines. Strategically, war would be won: eight months later, Germany would have lost 70 percents of its war capacity and forced to sue for peace before starting losing everything west of the Rhine while Russia would still remain in the game even if badly mauled.
The Entente and Belgium know this, Germany knows this. To fight in Belgium and France means for Germany that the Entente is a bit more overstretched and is forced to deploy ressources away from the Moselle basin. Once again, Metz and Thionville are the ultimate card, both for Germany and the Entente. The Reich won't sign peace with Belgium if it means that BRITAIN AND FRANCE WILL ATTACK WITH 15 FIELD ARMIES OR 5 000 000 MEN METZ AND THIONVILLE.
All these reasons mean that no one will accept a Belgian/German peace, except -ironically- the Entente for strategic reasons.
I'm fully expecting a French border at the Rhine and Moselle with Germany at the end of this.
eurorivercruises.com
I doubt that Belgium will want any claim on the remaining lands west of the Rhine. Is a Russian/GB watch on the Rhine from occupied Rhineland possible after the war?
eurorivercruises.com
I doubt that Belgium will want any claim on the remaining lands west of the Rhine. Is a Russian/GB watch on the Rhine from occupied Rhineland possible after the war?
17th December. The morning. Cattaro. Dedicated to Jolou and Lascaris
17th December 1914. 8:00 AM. Cattaro. Dalmatian Coast.
In the morning, Rear-Admiral Ronarc’h, who established his temporary headquarters at Radanovici, orders his troops to fix bayonets and to prepare for a new assault. Two Foreign Legion Battalions will seize Fort Radisevic while two fresh BILAT Battalions will advance towards Fort Goradza and Vrmac, the last lock before Cattaro itself. Ronarc’h is aware he doesn’t possess any artillery and that these two forts form a coherent and powerful defensive line, the reason why he has opted for a probe attack instead of a true assault in this case and that he has decided to use BILAT units (with condemned soldiers) instead of his Legionnaires and Naval Fusiliers.
At Cattaro, Captain Klein has actively and vigorously prepared the defence of the citadel, knowing the importance of Forts Goradza and Vrmac for both the Austrians and the French. The crews of the ships in the bay have been reduced to their minimum, resulting in the creation of two temporary sailors battalions aimed at reinforcing the two Forts while one battalion of the 14th Mountain Brigade (normally used to defend Cattaro from Montenegrin attacks coming from the North) is sent in the city to serve as a reserve in case of need.
At 8: 30 AM, the French 3rd Squadron of the Line opens fire on Fort Radisevic, hoping to achieve the same result than with Fort Traste. But this time, the Austro-Hungarian ships, located behind the coastal strip and regularly informed by artillery spotters, retaliate with a growing accuracy, resulting in a couple of near misses. This forces Vice-Admiral Le Bris to order to the Vérité, République and Patrie to retaliate as well as some Naval Fusiliers in the ruins of Fort Traste can observe the KUK Navy ships.
And so begins a duel between the two flotillas which lasts for several minutes. The Patrie ends to be hit once by a 240 mm shell. However, the projectile, even if it manages to partially destroy the barrel of a 165mm gun, proves to be unable to pierce the armour the battleship at medium range, resulting in minor damage and only one man killed. In exchange, the Monarch is hit once by the République, losing one of its 150mm guns and seven men while a minor fire briefly threatens its bridge before its crew puts it down. This event nevertheless convinces the Monarch-class ships to retreat as their 240mm guns are unable to seriously damage the French pre-dreadnoughts at medium or long ranges. The Radetzky proves to be a tougher challenge though. Retreating as well, and while the French observers believe for a brief moment that the duel is over, the modern semi-dreadnought then stops near the village of Bijela, more than 16000 metres from the French battleships, and then opens fire again with its main batteries. Vice-admiral Le Bris is shocked to see splashes surrounding his ships coming from this far and tries to retaliate. But even with a maximum elevation of 12 degrees, the 305mm shells of his ships fall at least 1000 metres short from their target.
Thus virtually invulnerable, the SMS Radetzky continues to fire one salvo every two minutes, albeit with a mediocre accuracy as the Austro-Hungarian gunners are not trained for this (the official rule stating that 9000 metres is the ideal distance to engage an enemy battleship). The République is hit once though, resulting in five men killed and one 165mm gun destroyed. This convinces VA Le Bris to get his ships out of range while still bombarding Fort Radisevic during their retreat.
This bombardment still partially dismantles the Austro-Hungarian fortifications and flares are sent from the land to indicate to the fleet that the Legionnaires are going to attack. The Foreign Legions units have to go across roughly 2000 metres of open terrain (with some minor slopes and reverse slopes. But as Fort Radisevic has no HMGs and only one 155mm gun (unable to fire at them as it is intended to be used against sea targets) and two heavy mortars still functional, casualties remain particularly low (mainly wounded due to isolate rifle fire and some mortar shells). Once the fort is reached, the fighting turns in favour of the French very quickly, as the hardened Legionnaires are mostly facing reservists and sailors. Fifty Austro-Hungarian soldiers still manage to escape north though, promptly reaching the beaches facing the bay of Kotor. The SMS Wien and Budapest notice their presence and steam south before sending rowboats to rescue them, their secondary armament ready to cover their retreat.
On the French side, one of the Foreign Legion Battalions’ commander has decided to send an entire company to pursue the Austro-Hungarian survivors. But as soon as the French reach the ridge dominating the beach, they’re welcomed by a hail of 150 and 70mm shells which decimate the leading sections and prompt them to take cover behind the ridge. This allows the 50 Austrian soldiers to be rescued and sent to Fort Lustica to bolster its defences.
Overall, the whole fight has cost to the French troops 46 killed and 107 wounded (both on land and seas) while the Austro-Hungarian have lost 61 men killed and 94 captured (including numerous wounded, mainly from Fort Radisevic).
This success convinces the Legionnaires that a quick and daring assault against Fort Lustica could succeed and thus partially dismantling the Cattaro base outer defences. A reinforced battalion then progresses along the coastal strip, taking care of using the ridges as a protection against the Monarch-class ships’ artillery.
However, both Forts Mamula and Lustica, after an intense night of working, have managed to install 14 90mm and 80mm naval guns on the eastern portions of the forts. Consequently, and even if those guns are less effective than howitzers or mortars, they can however fully protect the immediate outskirts of the forts. Once again, when in sight, a hail of medium shells pounds the approaching French columns, inflicting heavy casualties within minutes. This fruitless assault forces the Legionnaires to fall back, after losing around 80 men killed and missing. The news is transmitted to RA Ronarc’h at Radisevic, who reprimands the Foreign Legion battalion’s commander for such an unauthorized initiative but also contacts VA Le Bris late in the morning to inform him that without naval support, the landing troops won’t be able to progress beyond Fort Radisevic. To what VA Le Bris replies that the presence of the SMS Radetzky constitutes a threat to his ships, due to its superior armament, and that he won’t risk them again unless he’s ordered to. In the meantime, he strongly advises Ronarc’h to adopt a defensive posture in the area and to reinforce his recent gains.
While the fighting around Radisevic occurred, the BILAT battalions were launching their own probe attack against Fort Goradza. Once again, without proper artillery support and caught between the howitzers and HMGs coming from Forts Goradza and Fort Vrmac, the BILAT units suffer grievous losses during a daring charge and then retreat towards Radisevic at midday, having suffered 140 killed and missing and 70 wounded. All of this happened in spite of a diversionary attack launched by Montenegrin troops against the Forts north of Risan. Here, the well-trained Austro-Hungarian mountain troops easily repel the assault, although the number of casualties remained low on both sides.
All these assaults lead to an official instruction coming from RA Ronarc’h: until further notice, any action will be limited to reconnaissance patrols as well as sniping actions and artillery spotting. Once again, Ronarc’h requests to Le Bris that at least one battleship anchors between Zagora and Budva in order to act as a distant moving artillery battery until a proper solution can be found. At 1: PM, Le Bris accepts the request and dispatches the Patrie to act as such.
At the beginning of the afternoon, and after 12 hours of fighting, the situation is as follows: after a moment of surprise and disorganization, the Austro-Hungarian defence of Cattaro had gained in coherence and efficiency, leading to a temporary stalemate, although the naval base is practically useless for now, with its main ships trapped in the bay. On the French side, Both Ronarc’h and Le Bris know that the situation won’t evolve unless more men and particularly heavy material are involved (a decision which wasn’t deemed to happen, according to the initial plan), hence a cautious wait-and-see approach for now.
In the meantime, both Pula and the Franco-British Fleet southeast of Cattaro are receiving a succession of detailed reports.
Losses so far (including the Army and the Navy):
-France: Roughly 400 killed and missing, 50 captured, 400 wounded.
-Austria-Hungary: Roughly 300 killed and missing, 450 captured (including dozens of wounded), 150 wounded.
1 Fort Traste
2 Fort Mamula
4 Fort Lustica
7 Fort Radisevic
8 Fort Gorazda
9 Fort Kosmac
10 Fort Vrmac
Blue circle: Fort Sanik and dependencies
Blue line: frontline at 8:00 AM
Purple line: frontline at 2:00 PM
Green arrows: French and Montenegrin (failed) attacks
Author's notes: I dedicate this update to Jolou and Lascaris who recommanded this TL for the 2018 Turtledove Award. I thank them them for this kind gesture and I thank you all for following this story since many months now. I will do my best to continue and improve it. Have a nice evening (or morning, depending where you're from). Jean de Bueil.
In the morning, Rear-Admiral Ronarc’h, who established his temporary headquarters at Radanovici, orders his troops to fix bayonets and to prepare for a new assault. Two Foreign Legion Battalions will seize Fort Radisevic while two fresh BILAT Battalions will advance towards Fort Goradza and Vrmac, the last lock before Cattaro itself. Ronarc’h is aware he doesn’t possess any artillery and that these two forts form a coherent and powerful defensive line, the reason why he has opted for a probe attack instead of a true assault in this case and that he has decided to use BILAT units (with condemned soldiers) instead of his Legionnaires and Naval Fusiliers.
At Cattaro, Captain Klein has actively and vigorously prepared the defence of the citadel, knowing the importance of Forts Goradza and Vrmac for both the Austrians and the French. The crews of the ships in the bay have been reduced to their minimum, resulting in the creation of two temporary sailors battalions aimed at reinforcing the two Forts while one battalion of the 14th Mountain Brigade (normally used to defend Cattaro from Montenegrin attacks coming from the North) is sent in the city to serve as a reserve in case of need.
At 8: 30 AM, the French 3rd Squadron of the Line opens fire on Fort Radisevic, hoping to achieve the same result than with Fort Traste. But this time, the Austro-Hungarian ships, located behind the coastal strip and regularly informed by artillery spotters, retaliate with a growing accuracy, resulting in a couple of near misses. This forces Vice-Admiral Le Bris to order to the Vérité, République and Patrie to retaliate as well as some Naval Fusiliers in the ruins of Fort Traste can observe the KUK Navy ships.
And so begins a duel between the two flotillas which lasts for several minutes. The Patrie ends to be hit once by a 240 mm shell. However, the projectile, even if it manages to partially destroy the barrel of a 165mm gun, proves to be unable to pierce the armour the battleship at medium range, resulting in minor damage and only one man killed. In exchange, the Monarch is hit once by the République, losing one of its 150mm guns and seven men while a minor fire briefly threatens its bridge before its crew puts it down. This event nevertheless convinces the Monarch-class ships to retreat as their 240mm guns are unable to seriously damage the French pre-dreadnoughts at medium or long ranges. The Radetzky proves to be a tougher challenge though. Retreating as well, and while the French observers believe for a brief moment that the duel is over, the modern semi-dreadnought then stops near the village of Bijela, more than 16000 metres from the French battleships, and then opens fire again with its main batteries. Vice-admiral Le Bris is shocked to see splashes surrounding his ships coming from this far and tries to retaliate. But even with a maximum elevation of 12 degrees, the 305mm shells of his ships fall at least 1000 metres short from their target.
Thus virtually invulnerable, the SMS Radetzky continues to fire one salvo every two minutes, albeit with a mediocre accuracy as the Austro-Hungarian gunners are not trained for this (the official rule stating that 9000 metres is the ideal distance to engage an enemy battleship). The République is hit once though, resulting in five men killed and one 165mm gun destroyed. This convinces VA Le Bris to get his ships out of range while still bombarding Fort Radisevic during their retreat.
This bombardment still partially dismantles the Austro-Hungarian fortifications and flares are sent from the land to indicate to the fleet that the Legionnaires are going to attack. The Foreign Legions units have to go across roughly 2000 metres of open terrain (with some minor slopes and reverse slopes. But as Fort Radisevic has no HMGs and only one 155mm gun (unable to fire at them as it is intended to be used against sea targets) and two heavy mortars still functional, casualties remain particularly low (mainly wounded due to isolate rifle fire and some mortar shells). Once the fort is reached, the fighting turns in favour of the French very quickly, as the hardened Legionnaires are mostly facing reservists and sailors. Fifty Austro-Hungarian soldiers still manage to escape north though, promptly reaching the beaches facing the bay of Kotor. The SMS Wien and Budapest notice their presence and steam south before sending rowboats to rescue them, their secondary armament ready to cover their retreat.
On the French side, one of the Foreign Legion Battalions’ commander has decided to send an entire company to pursue the Austro-Hungarian survivors. But as soon as the French reach the ridge dominating the beach, they’re welcomed by a hail of 150 and 70mm shells which decimate the leading sections and prompt them to take cover behind the ridge. This allows the 50 Austrian soldiers to be rescued and sent to Fort Lustica to bolster its defences.
Overall, the whole fight has cost to the French troops 46 killed and 107 wounded (both on land and seas) while the Austro-Hungarian have lost 61 men killed and 94 captured (including numerous wounded, mainly from Fort Radisevic).
This success convinces the Legionnaires that a quick and daring assault against Fort Lustica could succeed and thus partially dismantling the Cattaro base outer defences. A reinforced battalion then progresses along the coastal strip, taking care of using the ridges as a protection against the Monarch-class ships’ artillery.
However, both Forts Mamula and Lustica, after an intense night of working, have managed to install 14 90mm and 80mm naval guns on the eastern portions of the forts. Consequently, and even if those guns are less effective than howitzers or mortars, they can however fully protect the immediate outskirts of the forts. Once again, when in sight, a hail of medium shells pounds the approaching French columns, inflicting heavy casualties within minutes. This fruitless assault forces the Legionnaires to fall back, after losing around 80 men killed and missing. The news is transmitted to RA Ronarc’h at Radisevic, who reprimands the Foreign Legion battalion’s commander for such an unauthorized initiative but also contacts VA Le Bris late in the morning to inform him that without naval support, the landing troops won’t be able to progress beyond Fort Radisevic. To what VA Le Bris replies that the presence of the SMS Radetzky constitutes a threat to his ships, due to its superior armament, and that he won’t risk them again unless he’s ordered to. In the meantime, he strongly advises Ronarc’h to adopt a defensive posture in the area and to reinforce his recent gains.
While the fighting around Radisevic occurred, the BILAT battalions were launching their own probe attack against Fort Goradza. Once again, without proper artillery support and caught between the howitzers and HMGs coming from Forts Goradza and Fort Vrmac, the BILAT units suffer grievous losses during a daring charge and then retreat towards Radisevic at midday, having suffered 140 killed and missing and 70 wounded. All of this happened in spite of a diversionary attack launched by Montenegrin troops against the Forts north of Risan. Here, the well-trained Austro-Hungarian mountain troops easily repel the assault, although the number of casualties remained low on both sides.
All these assaults lead to an official instruction coming from RA Ronarc’h: until further notice, any action will be limited to reconnaissance patrols as well as sniping actions and artillery spotting. Once again, Ronarc’h requests to Le Bris that at least one battleship anchors between Zagora and Budva in order to act as a distant moving artillery battery until a proper solution can be found. At 1: PM, Le Bris accepts the request and dispatches the Patrie to act as such.
At the beginning of the afternoon, and after 12 hours of fighting, the situation is as follows: after a moment of surprise and disorganization, the Austro-Hungarian defence of Cattaro had gained in coherence and efficiency, leading to a temporary stalemate, although the naval base is practically useless for now, with its main ships trapped in the bay. On the French side, Both Ronarc’h and Le Bris know that the situation won’t evolve unless more men and particularly heavy material are involved (a decision which wasn’t deemed to happen, according to the initial plan), hence a cautious wait-and-see approach for now.
In the meantime, both Pula and the Franco-British Fleet southeast of Cattaro are receiving a succession of detailed reports.
Losses so far (including the Army and the Navy):
-France: Roughly 400 killed and missing, 50 captured, 400 wounded.
-Austria-Hungary: Roughly 300 killed and missing, 450 captured (including dozens of wounded), 150 wounded.
1 Fort Traste
2 Fort Mamula
4 Fort Lustica
7 Fort Radisevic
8 Fort Gorazda
9 Fort Kosmac
10 Fort Vrmac
Blue circle: Fort Sanik and dependencies
Blue line: frontline at 8:00 AM
Purple line: frontline at 2:00 PM
Green arrows: French and Montenegrin (failed) attacks
Author's notes: I dedicate this update to Jolou and Lascaris who recommanded this TL for the 2018 Turtledove Award. I thank them them for this kind gesture and I thank you all for following this story since many months now. I will do my best to continue and improve it. Have a nice evening (or morning, depending where you're from). Jean de Bueil.
Bon soir Jean!
After a bit of mine sweeping, the captured bay between Fort Traste and Fort Mamula offers useful logistic support for land and sea forces.
After a bit of mine sweeping, the captured bay between Fort Traste and Fort Mamula offers useful logistic support for land and sea forces.
Will this become Adriatic Jutland? That's definitely hard to imagine, but definitely sounds cool!
I'm fully expecting a French border at the Rhine and Moselle with Germany at the end of this.
eurorivercruises.com
I doubt that Belgium will want any claim on the remaining lands west of the Rhine. Is a Russian/GB watch on the Rhine from occupied Rhineland possible after the war?
Bonsoir as well my General!
The bay itself could provide a nice natural harbour indeed (plus the Adriatic sea is known to be relatively a quiet one during the whole year contrary to others) but the presence of KUK coastal defence ships plus heavy mortars (and A-H was great when it came to heavy mortars) means that this bay could be vulnerable to constal bombardments. Plus it's close from the frontline. This being said, once the minefields are cleared, the beaches can be used for small supplying operations, the ones for which the Austrians would not bother to waste a shell. But anything bigger than a torpedo boat would not be that lucky.
About your map, there is still a long way until the end of the war (and who will win btw...). And the war aims of the Entente like OTL, beyond some general declarations, still remain quite vague (which territorial and financial demands exactly for example). And about Russians on the Rhine river, if they can keep the Vistula one so far, the French would already be happy.
Well, you know Lapeyrère's intentions which aren't any different from OTL. Only ITTL he can launch a bit more ambitious operations because the Army is kind enough to lend him some troops. The French Navy OTL just waited for the entire war a massive sortie of the KUK Battle Fleet in order to get their decisive battle. On the other hand, you also know Haus' intentions (quite a lucid a competent admiral If I can give my personal opinion, the man did what he could with limited resources and an even more limited replacement capacity).
Concerning artillery support, the threat put by the Radetzky guns outreach was relevant only it was about targetting the ship, but when it's about targetting the fort, the French ship could well bomb it from the limit of their reach, thus putting themselves out of the Radetzky's reach. That would leave the land units exposed to the Radetzky's fire, but at least, the guns of Mamula and Lustica could be silenced. Is that possible?
An Interesting question, allow me to answer in detail:
Well they did silenced a good portion of Radisevic's defenses during their retreat, so the French pred-dread did once again their job. The problem is that the KUK 305mm guns have a range of 20 000 metres when the French ones don't exceed 14500 metres. Which means the SMS Radetzky have a good five kilometres "safe zone" against the French ships (including the Courbet dreadnoughts) which can be used to protect both the ship and the outer defences if needed. And since the closest naval base where Le Bris can do some repairs is Malta, he doesn't want to risk too much serious damage to his ships. And a 305mm shell coming from 20 kilometres as a good chance to penetrate a pre-dread bridge, resulting in damages going from significant to potentially lethal.
One example: Le Bris say "let's play it safe" we'll bombard fort mamula (itself a very small island) at maximum range meaning 14500 meters. First the accuracy won't this great even if Le Bris was a likely a decent good gunner (he directed the gunnery school from 1906 to 1911). Then the Radetzky can play the game too, placing itself behind fort Mamula, thus having a good protection, and firing against the French ships at 15 000 metres. The Monarch-class 240mm can do the same since their were able to fire a 15-16000 metres max. Of course at long range a 240 mm shell won't endanger a pre-dread in the sense that it won't pierce the armor and damage something vital, but it can still be a nuisance, killing men on the bridge, damaging secondary armament etc.
So the French can use their 20 305mm guns but the KUK Navy can use its 4 305mm and 24 240mm guns the same way.
All of this to say that the French Navy discovered that the KUK Navy has guns with a longer ranger their theirs. And now the KUK knows it too.