The United States without the Napoleonic Wars

Maoistic

Banned
Let's say Napoleon is captured and executed by the Revolutionary regime of France instead of carrying a successful coup, preventing the Napoleonic Wars as a result. What do you think would have happened to the United States?
 
Probably butterflies away the War of 1812. The new republic is not about to take on an undistracted British Empire.

Maybe that puts a hiccup in Andrew Jackson's future, I think he would still become a political force but he wouldn't have the Battle of New Orleans in his back pocket.

Perhaps an earlier Harrison presidency after he deals with Tecumseh. Fighting him and his Confederacy probably becomes the big conflict and the British sell him weapons but do not declare war on their overseas business partner.
 
I wonder if you get an earlier Spanish-American War? The Americans will still want New Orleans.

New Orleans is very tempting, given its position. I suspect that there will be American settlers moving there regardless of what Spain's policy on the matter is. Maybe there will be a bunch of Texas-equivalents ITTL.
 
I guess that must remind to everyone with the 'America fuck yeah'! mindset that the main beneficiary would be Spain that TTL wouldn't wilt nor to suffer the invasion and the independence war that would affect Spain all the XIX century.
 
I guess that must remind to everyone with the 'America fuck yeah'! mindset that the main beneficiary would be Spain that TTL wouldn't wilt nor to suffer the invasion and the independence war that would affect Spain all the XIX century.

That's certainly true, but nothing about Spain in the early 19th century makes me think they can hold onto Louisiana.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
That's certainly true, but nothing about Spain in the early 19th century makes me think they can hold onto Louisiana.

Would they even want to? On the one hand, @Xenophonte has a good point: no Napoleon means no hugely weakened Spain. Furthermore, it means no forced Spanish loyalty to France, and thus no British backing for revolutionaries in the Spanish Empire. On the contrary: if we wish to assume 'no Napoleonic wars and no distracted Britain', as per the OP, then we should assume that no equivalent wars take place either. which probably means the French revolutionaries get crushed by a monarchist alliance shortly after Napoleon fails to seize power. An alliance which would include Britain and Spain, presumably-- making them clear allies for the moment.

This gives us a much stronger Spain, and undistracted Britain, and presumably a Britain that does not want any hanky-panky in the western hemisphere. Nevertheless, there already was discontent in the Spanish Empire. Spain will want to retain its empire, and may well succeed (at least in considerable part, and for the time being). Yet at the same time, we have the US, which wants New Orleans and Florida. (The US, in OTL and presumably in this ATL, won't initially be interested in grabbing up the vast Louisiana Country.) Spain can dedicate lots of resources to fighting the US over those relative backwaters it never settled properly anyway... or...

Well, or it can sell them. I'd imagine the British wouldn't actually interfere against the US in case of war, but they'd likely give very strong hints that they'd prefer a peaceful solution. So the US may well offer to buy New Orleans and Florida, and possibly a modest strip of land extending along the west bank of the Mississippi. The Spanish, fighting revolutionaries in their more important colonies, and actually standing a chance of winning, would be very tempted. Sell off backwaters to gain money to fund campaigns in core territories? That's a no-brainer! (N.B. They'll actually get the payment later, of course, but being assured that the money is forthcoming allows Spain to run up the war debt correspondingly.)

It's even possible that Spain would make the same choice Napoleon made in OTL, and try to sell much more land than the US initially wants to buy... because they'd get more money in exchange for pretty much unsettled land they've got no use for.
 
That's certainly true, but nothing about Spain in the early 19th century makes me think they can hold onto Louisiana.
While the OTL Spain early XIX century ,before the Invasion, was very short time and was too much affected by the contemporary events contemporary... Howewer it's true that the Spaniard army suffered from the same faults than their European counterparts when must have fought against the Napoleonic armies... Notwithstanding the American (let aside the Jackson's victory) performance in battle (both offensive and defensive) against the British... was not from the brightest in the American military history.
Also must be remembered that Spain still had his fleet and would be able to navigate through the Atlantic's sea routes at will.
 
First still in TTL scenario the Latin American revolutionary process, not its probably that still would happen, at least at the same time and the way that had happened in OTL.
Because the OTL, the key factor that allowed to start was the power vacuum caused by the vacancy of the kingdoms throne by the forced abdication and the French military occupation of the peninsula.
What in turn gave rise to the juntista movement in Spain... which was quickly imitated and replicated in the Spanish America and were taken advantage of by the local elites to try or to take the power.

Being in addition to the desire to take power and self-governance... the fear of social revolution and / or in other cases the desire to realize it was what motivated these elites (which started and/or gave support to the revolution).
But in any case the Caribbean and Mexico (until 1820, in OTL) remained firmly loyalists. Also mention that even in OTL Spain was able (remember the situation and the material and human cost suffered by Spain in OTL from the years of occupation and war) of the military and logistical effort to gather and send troops to America to combat.

Per example, in 1812 exits from Spanish ports to Mexico, a total of 3857 men and in the year 1813 were sent a total of 1895 with similar numbers sent until 1817.
But the biggest effort was Gral. Morillo's expedition with an army of about 15,000 men in a fleet of about 60 ships to fight in the Viceroyalty of New Granada (in today's Venezuela and Colombia).
Regarding the extreme Nort American northwest and / or the Mississippi valley while it is doubtful that Spain want to sell and the government is likely to stimulate its colonization... can't be discarded that perhaps would be sold and/or negotiated.

But from what it is certain it's that while it is possible that, with respect to the port of New Orleans, some kind of agreement would be reached, for its preferential use by the Americans... would be very unlikely that Spain wishes to sell and / or cede said port.
Also, in my opinion, would be even more doubtful that in case of being lost by conquest, it will not be tried to recover by Spain.

Which in turn raises the question of whether the Americans with their traditional reluctance to establish and maintain large and even less permanent military forces could challenge the control of the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico by Spain... at the same time as in the event of war they must protect the east coast.
Finally, I believe that in the scenario posed by this TTL it is more likely that the US government and / or at least some of its leaders seek to maintain friendship with the only power capable of counterbalancing England and / or France in the region.
 
There is no Louisiana Purchase, and if the Haitian Revolution still occurs then The Directory, the hated, unpopular, incompetent rulers of 'Revolutionary France' will have to deal with this, plus the fact that Napoleon's aborted coup had such a wide range of support.

At this point I could see a second coup in the works, but this time to restore the monarchy, not necessarily the Bourbons but someone with a blood tie to Charlegmange (no matter how weak) who could serve as a useful puppet-king, appease the powers of Europe that yes, yes all this distressing, 'Revolution' stuff ends now.

This coup has good odds of success, even with a more wary Directory on the lookout for insurrection, simply because the Directory at this point would have no real support outside of inertia.

As for who the 'New King' would be, it wouldn't have to be someone descended from a legitimate line, a descendant from a royal bastard could work and be plausible for this coup to happen. Not sure who this would be but I'm sure there's someone out there that would fit the bill.

I doubt there'd be a coup in the Bourbon's favor at this point, neither Louis XVIII or future Charles X have much to their name that inspires the sort of confidence on which coup d'état's are built.


So from America's end there is no big buyout of 'French' lands, but I see a lot of illegal settlements cropping up over the years that will turn into a landgrab/war between America and France in the future.
 
Top