The United States of Greater Austria

What if the plan by the Archduke Ferdinand and Aurel Popovici came to pass? The Archduke was not assasinated in Sarajevo in 1914. He lived on and took the Throne in 1916 when the emperor died. He reorganizes the Empire into the United States of Greater Austria(USGA). So this scenario avoids the spark of war in 1914 with Serbia and the Dark Hand. How might this sequence of events effect the course of history? How would the Great War start if not for the assasination?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Of_Great_Austria
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The Great War would start somehow, since both sides just waited for an excuse to go to war.

The Magyars would pretty much be pissed.
 
The Magyars would pretty much be pissed.
Yes,
but no WW-I,no post war caos,no Admiral Horthy,no WW-II,No Red army occupation,no 1956 repression no communism for 40 years,no post communism economic troubles.
A very,very,very good buy,in retrospective.
 
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Without any Serbian or Croat events to trigger WW1, whats the new firestorm? And does this new Austria hold to old allegiances and treaties?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
A third Marocco crisis??
A clash on Papua New Guinea??

Something would have happened to trigger the Great War. All the Great Powers wanted a war, so I can't see it not happen.
 
A third Marocco crisis??
A clash on Papua New Guinea??

Something would have happened to trigger the Great War. All the Great Powers wanted a war, so I can't see it not happen.
However, the Great Powers also needed a casus belli. The Germans wanted a war as soon as possible, because they wanted to pre-empt a Russian buildup. If we can merely prevent any suitable crisis until after 1920 or so, it will be too risky for any sane leader to provoke a war.
 
I think it would probably be a Russo-German War, and if for some reason France and England undergo a chilling of relations with Russia, that pretty much leaves Germany and Russia, possibly Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans with Germany, to slug it out. I don't see England and France getting too involved with a built up Russia, because it was the fear of Russian Expansion that led to the Crimean War.
 
No 1914 assassination certainly doesn't solve the Balkans and Slav grievances.

Looking for all possible ways conflict could still arise:

Hungarians balk at USGA plan and rebel, possibly looking to the Balkans for allies (willing to give up Croatia for support for example)

Germany launches pre-emptive strike on Russia. This will still lead to a two-front war unless by the time they attack they decide against the Schiefflen Plan and the French government falls into coma, no way France is letting Russia fall, however such a situation might see the intial focus put on the Russians.

The CUP nationalist government in Constantinople panics over the Western plan to create a 'free' Armenia (plans for this began in early 1914), and goes on the war path. Unless the Pashas have a death wish this might fit into a German pre-emptive attack on Russia.

Germans continue encroachment into British oil monopoly in Iraq via the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, causing the British to launch their own pre-emptive strike, or at least cook up a crisis to seize the region (this was a nice practical advantage to aiding plucky little Belgium in 1914 as well, the first British troops deployed were in Basrah after all)

Another Moroccan Crisis or something similar, maybe. After the 2nd Crisis I think even the Kaiser got the gist that the Entente was pretty united.
 

Germaniac

Donor
No 1914 assassination certainly doesn't solve the Balkans and Slav grievances.

Looking for all possible ways conflict could still arise:

Hungarians balk at USGA plan and rebel, possibly looking to the Balkans for allies (willing to give up Croatia for support for example)

Germany launches pre-emptive strike on Russia. This will still lead to a two-front war unless by the time they attack they decide against the Schiefflen Plan and the French government falls into coma, no way France is letting Russia fall, however such a situation might see the intial focus put on the Russians.

The CUP nationalist government in Constantinople panics over the Western plan to create a 'free' Armenia (plans for this began in early 1914), and goes on the war path. Unless the Pashas have a death wish this might fit into a German pre-emptive attack on Russia.

Germans continue encroachment into British oil monopoly in Iraq via the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, causing the British to launch their own pre-emptive strike, or at least cook up a crisis to seize the region (this was a nice practical advantage to aiding plucky little Belgium in 1914 as well, the first British troops deployed were in Basrah after all)

Another Moroccan Crisis or something similar, maybe. After the 2nd Crisis I think even the Kaiser got the gist that the Entente was pretty united.

Point A. Correct Hungary will see this as yet another attempt to minimize their authority.
Point B. Hungary Will not get support from southern Balkan nations, as it would NEVER AND NEVER WITH ALL CAPITALS give up croatia. Its plans were quite simpy to erase Croatia from the world map and eradicate them to move the hungarians in.
Point C. Germany was not itching for a fight, up until the last days the Kaiser, war hawk of them all time, was trying to stop it. They Would not pre empt on Russia. France also would not join the war cause if its just the germans vs russians The russians will follow their true to form russian strategy of fall back and starve the germans.
Point D. The British were not going to all out war with germany over Iraq. Maybe a blockade but NO armies.
 
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